Sleepers - dynasty - TE (1 Viewer)

[Driver]

Summary of results from some recent initial dynasty drafts (excludes IDP, includes rookies):

ADP - Name (target round)

97- Watson (beginning of round 9)

123 - LJ Smith (beginning of round 11)

140 - Scheffler (round 13)

147 - Heath Miller (beginning of round 14)

150 - McMichael (round 14)

158 - Dallas Clark (round 14)

169 - Troupe (round 15+)

170 - Owen Daniels (round 15+)

Comments:

1. If you want Gates or Vernon Davis on your team, you're most likely going to have to pay market price and draft them in the 3rd and 5th rounds, respectively.

2. I like Watson's value because you can usually get him at the end of the 8th or beginning of the 9th round.

3. LJ Smith also presents good value IMO with his ADP at 123 overall, probably discounted because of his uncertain contract status next year.

4. If you wait until the end of round 12, you can usually get Scheffler, and if he's gone, Miller and/or McMichael are usually available at that point.

5. Best values IMO are Troupe and Daniels with ADPs of 169 and 170, respectively.

ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. I focused on the top-15 players at the TE position and the players who had fallen the furthest IMO (not the deep sleepers). To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.

 

[KellysHeroes]

97- Watson (beginning of round 9) too many targets in NE right now

123 - LJ Smith (beginning of round 11) Very good value, but what about his future.. will he be in PHilly next yr

140 - Scheffler (round 13) Stock drops after Graham signin

147 - Heath Miller (beginning of round 14) excellent value

150 - McMichael (round 14) same as Watson, too many options, but in the 14th you can't complain

158 - Dallas Clark (round 14) he was havin a good yr until he got hurt, will see some more slot time

169 - Troupe (round 15+) stay very away

170 - Owen Daniels (round 15+) could be the #2 targeton Hou, for what ever that worth.. IMO the best value

Take 2 of these guys an play the match ups

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I love where Daniel is going.

 

[Driver]

97- Watson (beginning of round 9) too many targets in NE right now

123 - LJ Smith (beginning of round 11) Very good value, but what about his future.. will he be in PHilly next yr

140 - Scheffler (round 13) Stock drops after Graham signin

147 - Heath Miller (beginning of round 14) excellent value

150 - McMichael (round 14) same as Watson, too many options, but in the 14th you can't complain

158 - Dallas Clark (round 14) he was havin a good yr until he got hurt, will see some more slot time

169 - Troupe (round 15+) stay very away

170 - Owen Daniels (round 15+) could be the #2 targeton Hou, for what ever that worth.. IMO the best value

Take 2 of these guys an play the match ups

Yeah. I agree that may be the best move.Personally, I'd love to have Gates or Vernon Davis on my dynasty team -- if I can get them in the middle-to-end of the 3rd or 5th rounds, respectively.

 

[KING]

ouch, a little steep for davis at this point. i'd like to know he's not the next rickey dudley 1st. dudley caught 34 his rookie year, davis is 14 behind

 

[KellysHeroes]

More and More TEs are producing decent numbers now a days.

It only seemed like a couple of yrs ago that there was Gonzo and Sharp, then everyone else sucked.

Now (besides Gates) it seems that there isn't much difference point wise from the top TE to the bottom of the top 15. I mean whats the FF point difference, like 60 or so. I rather play match ups.

 

[Driver]

ouch, a little steep for davis at this point. i'd like to know he's not the next rickey dudley 1st. dudley caught 34 his rookie year, davis is 14 behind

I don't disagree -- I guess it depends on your perspective. In the 5 recent drafts, Davis was drafted from the end of the 4th round to the beginning of the 6th round, with ADP of mid-5th round. If you want Davis on your team, you'll have to pay a premium. Because he doesn't have a demonstrated track record, many owners will not pay the going market price. I guess I'm one that will because of his potential upside -- I wouldn't in a redraft, but I will in dynasty if my pick is in the 2nd half of the 5th and he's available.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I am not sure why Troupe is a great value at all. He rarely has outproduced the other TE on his team. I think that Daniels production will drop now that he has a QB that can go to a second or third read. Carr's dump off targets (Miller, Davis, and Daniels) always did well because he would do one read and then check down. If you believe that Schaub can go through progressions, I don't expect more out of Houston TE's. WR2 and WR3, yes, but TE's-no.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Scheffler is a terrific value. I don't think the Graham signing impacts him much at all. Watson had no trouble producing with Graham on the roster, and we all saw that Scheffler and Cutler were on the same page late last year.

 

[UCSBgerry]

More and More TEs are producing decent numbers now a days.It only seemed like a couple of yrs ago that there was Gonzo and Sharp, then everyone else sucked.Now (besides Gates) it seems that there isn't much difference point wise from the top TE to the bottom of the top 15. I mean whats the FF point difference, like 60 or so. I rather play match ups.

Well since you asked, the difference between TE2 and TE15 is 137 points which is almost 10 points per game over a 15 game fantasy season which is quite significant. You wouldn't rather play matchups, you just happend to get two crappy TE's and this is the way you try to justify it to yourself.

 

[Driver]

I am not sure why Troupe is a great value at all. He rarely has outproduced the other TE on his team. I think that Daniels production will drop now that he has a QB that can go to a second or third read. Carr's dump off targets (Miller, Davis, and Daniels) always did well because he would do one read and then check down. If you believe that Schaub can go through progressions, I don't expect more out of Houston TE's. WR2 and WR3, yes, but TE's-no.

I wouldn't target Troupe or Daniels for TE1, but I think they're good values for TE2 with their current ADPs.In any event, I was working on the RBs and WRs when I checked the SP and got distracted, so I guess I'll go back and try to post those results.

 

[-OZ-]

I am not sure why Troupe is a great value at all. He rarely has outproduced the other TE on his team. I think that Daniels production will drop now that he has a QB that can go to a second or third read. Carr's dump off targets (Miller, Davis, and Daniels) always did well because he would do one read and then check down. If you believe that Schaub can go through progressions, I don't expect more out of Houston TE's. WR2 and WR3, yes, but TE's-no.

I wouldn't target Troupe or Daniels for TE1, but I think they're good values for TE2 with their current ADPs.In any event, I was working on the RBs and WRs when I checked the SP and got distracted, so I guess I'll go back and try to post those results.

Agreed. I currently have Shockey, Troupe, Scaife and Kris Wilson. Wilson's value is minimal now, but if it's a large enough league, and you can wait, he's an ok sleeper pick for the future.

Troupe at pick 169 is good value IMO, but where's Scaife going? He may be the better pick (which might just limit Troupe's upside...?)