Sleepers - dynasty - WR (1 Viewer)

[Driver]

Summary of results from 5 recent initial dynasty drafts (no IDP, including rookies and excluding Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, and Chad Johnson):

Top-17 WRs:

ADP - Name [where drafted overall in recent drafts]

18 - Calvin Johnson [15-16-18-21-21]

25 - R. Wayne [21-24-24-26-27]

29 - Holt [25-26-30-30-31]

30 - Andre Johnson [27-28-31-32-33]

30 - Colston [28-29-31-31-34]

30 - Boldin [23-28-30-32-34]

31 - Roy Williams [24-28-33-33-35]

35 - Evans [32-34-36-36-37]

36 - Harrison [29-36-38-40-44]

37 - Walker [32-33-39-40-40]

42 - R. Moss [37-38-41-47-50]

46 - Owens [42-44-44-48-57]

47 - TJ Houshmanzadeh [38-43-46-52-52]

58 - H. Ward [38-57-58-60-68]

Comments:

1. No clear value picks among the top-12 WRs off the board. Fairly consistent -- after the top-3 WRs, Wayne is usually drafted first, followed closely by Holt, A.Johnson, Colston, Boldin, and R.Williams.

2. Evans, Harrison and Walker are drafted a few slots later.

3. Lots of variation for Randy Moss, TO, and TJ Housh -- I like Moss the best of these 3, especially if he falls a fair amount.

4. IMO, the clear winner value-wise is Hines Ward, who comes cheaply with ADP = 58.

5. The upside potential of Calvin Johnson is definitely being recognized in recent drafts. He is consistently the 4th WR off the board after Fitz, Chad Johnson, and Steve Smith.

*******

Mid-tier WRs:

ADP - Name

48 - Burress

50 - Driver

52 - Braylon Edwards

57 - Santana Moss

59 - Reggie Brown

61 - Mark Clayton

63 - L. Coles

65 - DJAX

69 - Branch

71 - Chambers

73 - Cotchery

74 - San. Holmes

76 - Stallworth

82 - Br. Marshall

83 - Greg Jennings

86 - Meacham

88 - DJ Hackett

90 - Vincent Jackson

96 - Sidney Rice

99 - A. Gonzalez

100 - Bowe

101 - Matt Jones

104 - Jarrett

109 - K. Curtis

115 - Berrian

116 - Ginn

*******

Other lower-tier WRs:

ADP - Name

117 - Brandon Jones

123 - Terry Glenn

125 - Bennett

127 - Jerry Porter

128 - Craig Davis

132 - Steve Smith

133 - D. Henderson

136 - Demetrius Williams

142 - Reggie Williams

145 - Chris Henry

146 - Ron Curry

154 - Jacoby Jones

160 - Troy Williamson

166 - I. Bruce

170 - Muhammad

173 - D. Mason

174 - Michael Jenkins

180 - Joe Horn

187 - Furrey

189 - Patrick Crayton

192 - Chad Jackson

198 - Paul Williams

199 - Bryant Johnson

201 - Hank Baskett

207 - J.L. Higgins

*******

Comments - In comparison to F&L's rankings, the most undervalued according to ADP include (in no order of importance):

Randy Moss

Hines Ward

Santana Moss

Reggie Brown

Chambers

Vincent Jackson

DJ Hackett

Matt Jones

Curtis

Berrian

Bennett

Porter

Curry

ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.

 

[greyone]

Value is usually found after the 6th round. All the guys you mentioned are typical picks every year. None who should be considered sleepers or general value picks. You need to move your list down to tier 4-5.

 

[Biabreakable]

What WR were drafted in between ADP 58-101?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Just look at my roster.. after Holt.. I have 5 good ones then Randle El

 

[Ned]

where's dj hackett?

 

[Driver]

What WR were drafted in between ADP 58-101?

Exactly. OP edited to note "work in progress." Mid-tier WRs will be added later today. (Sorry - I ran out of time.)

 

[lions327]

Value is usually found after the 6th round. All the guys you mentioned are typical picks every year. None who should be considered sleepers or general value picks. You need to move your list down to tier 4-5.

I disagree to a point. Value is when you get a player later than you should. It doesn't matter what round. If you get a 3rd round caliber WR in round 4, that is great value.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Value is usually found after the 6th round. All the guys you mentioned are typical picks every year. None who should be considered sleepers or general value picks. You need to move your list down to tier 4-5.

I disagree to a point. Value is when you get a player later than you should. It doesn't matter what round. If you get a 3rd round caliber WR in round 4, that is great value.

...you are correct, sir.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Are these drafts from IDP leagues or not?

 

[Driver]

Are these drafts from IDP leagues or not?

IDP are not included.Note - OP updated to include mid-tier WRs.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Value is usually found after the 6th round. All the guys you mentioned are typical picks every year. None who should be considered sleepers or general value picks. You need to move your list down to tier 4-5.

I think you're mistaking "value" for "sleeper".

 

[Driver]

where's dj hackett?

According tp ADP, Hackett is the 33rd WR off the board with ADP of 88.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Reggie Williams? Am I just not seeing him, or is he missing or not in the top 207?

 

[Driver]

My shot at DEEP SLEEPERS (WRs with ADPs of around 200 or more):

Hank Baskett

Patrick Crayton

Chad Jackson

Paul Williams

Bryant Johnson

A. Toomer

J.L. Higgins

Sinorice Moss

Nate Washington

Mike Williams

Antonio Bryant (lots of questions marks in addition to the 4-game suspension, but may produce well if he lands in the right situation)

All of the above WRs can be had very late in many drafts, and some are undrafted even in drafts with 24-26 rounds (no IDP). Although they come with risk and uncertainty, IMO they have good upside and potential for dynasty purposes, especially if drafted at 200 overall or later.

 

[Driver]

Reggie Williams? Am I just not seeing him, or is he missing or not in the top 207?

Ok, I missed the following and will modify the OP to include:Reggie Williams (ADP 142)Troy Williamson (ADP 160)Horn (ADP 180)Furrey (ADP 187)

 

[Driver]

Value is usually found after the 6th round. All the guys you mentioned are typical picks every year. None who should be considered sleepers or general value picks. You need to move your list down to tier 4-5.

I disagree to a point. Value is when you get a player later than you should. It doesn't matter what round. If you get a 3rd round caliber WR in round 4, that is great value.

...you are correct, sir.

Yeah, I agree, too. I didn't mean to mislead with the title.

 

[beto]

 

[Biabreakable]

Very interesting info Driver.

I like this whole WR clumping starting at WR 71

Chambers

Cotchery

San. Holmes

Stallworth

Br. Marshall

Greg Jennings

Meacham

DJ Hackett

Vincent Jackson

Sidney Rice

A. Gonzalez

I have never been a fan of Chambers. I have been very wary of him due to his poor catch percentage. However at 71 I have to consider him worth the risk. Not sure if he will ever see such high targets like he was getting prior to last year again though. Maybe the high value plays start with Cotchery instead.

Then I like these later WR who seem to qualify a real sleepers:

Steve Smith

Troy Williamson

Michael Jenkins

 

[-OZ-]

I like to look for a couple mid-tier WRs and a few late round fliers in an initial draft, so off of your list, I'd be targetting:

Mid-tier WRs:ADP - Name52 - Braylon Edwards101 - Matt Jones104 - Jarrett*******Other lower-tier WRs:ADP - Name117 - Brandon Jones145 - Chris Henry146 - Ron Curry160 - Troy Williamson198 - Paul Williams

 

[duaneok66]

My shot at DEEP SLEEPERS (WRs with ADPs of around 200 or more):

Hank Baskett

Patrick Crayton

Chad Jackson

Paul Williams

Bryant Johnson

A. Toomer

J.L. Higgins

Sinorice Moss

Nate Washington

Mike Williams

Antonio Bryant (lots of questions marks in addition to the 4-game suspension, but may produce well if he lands in the right situation)All of the above WRs can be had very late in many drafts, and some are undrafted even in drafts with 24-26 rounds (no IDP). Although they come with risk and uncertainty, IMO they have good upside and potential for dynasty purposes, especially if drafted at 200 overall or later.

it's mid-May, and Antonio is still a FA . . . there is NO interest for him this year, and there was very little last year before SF scooped him up; we see how long that union lasted . . .