Snow Storm Predictions and Civil Liberties (1 Viewer)

[lombardi]

There are two issues that are bugging me during this last snow storm debacle.

1. Can we trust the forecasters anymore? I know forecasting is an imperfect science and they're not always going to get it right. However, like all other science these days, everything is SO influenced by money that it seems to make impartiality impossible. If you think about the entire business, forecasters are rewarded with both money and even a small amount of celebrity based solely upon how many people are watching their telecasts. Eyeballs sell advertising, advertising funds news departments and pays salaries.

What is in the forecasters best interest? To give a really accurate forecast that downgrades a big storm and lets people stop worrying about the next day's weather and tune out to get some sleep? Or, to scare the hell out of everyone with the "possibility" of a giant storm and keep everyone's attention and keep everyone clicking weather.com a half dozen times a day and watching every telecast? That's why you get the storm teaser at the beginning of the news forecast but not the details until the end, to keep you watching.

All news is so business and politics driven and it seems to be affecting forecasters. You need to keep people watching and you can't do that unless they're scared.

2. Does it bother anyone else that at the drop of the hat anymore a mayor or governor can just order you to stay in your house for any "emergency"? This really freaks me out. I understand in a true state of emergency that there are concerns about emergency vehicles getting where they need to, but honestly, all of the language is about how dangerous it is and how they're protecting everyone. At what cost? They let you know the night before a flake fell that if you're found on the streets of NYC that they can arrest you. Why? Because the mayor deemed it an "emergency". Christie ordered everyone in NJ into their houses by 9pm. Somehow we all survived these last couple hundred years without being forcefully quarantined to our homes during blizzards and snowstorms. I understand urging caution, asking people to stay indoors, but ordering me off the sidewalk on pain of prosecution?

I guess if cops can just run a military style, house by house forced search and evacuation of an entire town looking for the two Boston bombers they can do whatever they want now. Constitution be damned. I guess snowstorms and bad weather are small potatoes compared to that. But it's a bit frightening that we can all be cowed into house arrest whenever a civil authority deems it necessary, as long as they call it an "emergency" or in this case a possible "emergency" that didn't really materialize.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I really enjoy tuna fish sandwichs.

 

[culdeus]

I blame the weather channel. They are worse than fox news on bengahzi.

 

[pantagrapher]

Relax.

Weather forecasting is better and more accurate now than it's ever been. Predictions are based on averages from like 60 different independent models. If TV weather people are guilty of anything, it's showmanship. Flashy graphics. Field reporters. That's all unnecessary. But it doesn't change the actual forecast.

Municipalities get sued. It's also incredibly costly for them to have to go rescue people who have no common sense in addition to doing all the other everyday stuff they're still required to do during storms. The travel ban was lifted as soon as it was clear NYC wouldn't get hit too bad. No big whoop. Deal with it.

 

[lombardi]

So because municipalities get sued the answer is to just force everyone to stay in their houses. That's an interesting take. If we can now compel you into your home with the threat of arrest for your own safety, doesn't that seem like an awfully arbitrary line asking to be abused?

if someone is an idiot and needs rescuing then rescue them, then bill them. If you try to hike to the bottom of the Grand Canyon and a boulder falls and hits you in the head the park service will rescue you, and they wont charge you for it. However, if you hike to the bottom in your flip flops with a couple cans of soda and after ignoring all the warning signs realize you're an idiot and you're going to die unless someone saves you they'll rescue you, and send you a big ### bill.

Stripping away common liberties for the the 95% of the population who is cautious and intelligent enough to take care of themselves in order to protect the bumbling 5% from themselves is not the answer. Government isn't our parent, at least it shouldn't be.

 

[Cjw_55106]

So in reality, they are only stripping liberties from the bumbling 5% correct? Surely the 95% that is cautious and intelligent wouldn't risk going out in the first place. Am I following you correctly?

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Are you overstating the civil liberties angle? I don't think anyone was ordered to stay in their homes. Was anyone arrested?

 

[fantasycurse42]

I can give a semi-accurate 10 day forecast purely on guessing... I'd like to get a thread going where people challenge their local weatherman strictly by guessing. I guarantee a few people would win.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

If we can now compel you into your home with the threat of arrest for your own safety, doesn't that seem like an awfully arbitrary line

Doesn't seem particularly arbitrary to me.

 

[TenTimes]

Stripping away common liberties for the the 95% of the population who is cautious and intelligent enough to take care of themselves in order to protect the bumbling 5% from themselves is not the answer. Government isn't our parent, at least it shouldn't be.

Curious how you feel about seatbelt laws

 

[lombardi]

Wow, the statists are out in force today.

To answer the questions....

No, I don't know when going outside in 2 feet of snow became a life and death situation. It wasn't when I was a kid, it wasn't ten years ago, but now all of a sudden I may as well just shoot myself instead.

Yes, NYC residents were told to stay off the sidewalks or fines and/or arrest. Yes, in NJ during a state of emergency you face fines and arrest if caught out in non-emergency vehicles.

So telling a few million people that you're legally not allowed out of your house because there's a storm a brewing and it could be a big one isn't arbitrary than I don't know what is. How many inches before I'm forced into my home? 24? 20? 16? 12? I'm not sure because it's arbitrary.

I think seat belt and helmet laws are ridiculous. I never, ever drive without one and my kids will catch hell if I ever catch them without one, I would't ride a motor cycle without a helmet. But I don't like compulsory government rules mandating that I do things for my own safety. I don't mind public service announcements, I don't mind education, but getting a ticket for not clicking a seatbelt, and even worse, getting pulled over using seatbelts as an excuse is ridiculous.

A more interesting question is a cell phone law. I do believe in that because it so directly affects the safety of those sharing the road with you, like driving under the influence. I'm not completely against government restriction or control, not really a libertarian. But there has to be a better reason than protecting me from my own stupidity.

 

[joffer]

Relax.

Weather forecasting is better and more accurate now than it's ever been. Predictions are based on averages from like 60 different independent models. If TV weather people are guilty of anything, it's showmanship. Flashy graphics. Field reporters. That's all unnecessary. But it doesn't change the actual forecast.

Municipalities get sued. It's also incredibly costly for them to have to go rescue people who have no common sense in addition to doing all the other everyday stuff they're still required to do during storms. The travel ban was lifted as soon as it was clear NYC wouldn't get hit too bad. No big whoop. Deal with it.

 

[pantagrapher]

Do you live in one of these cities or are you ranting on their behalf?

 

[3C's]

 

[lombardi]

Do you live in one of these cities or are you ranting on their behalf?

My residency is in NJ but I just moved a couple of months ago to NC. So thankfully no snow for me! (not that they got much where I lived in NJ either when it was all said and done). But I was living home for Sandy and for a couple huge storms the last few years when we were forced into our homes and off the streets.

 

[lombardi]

But I'm actually ranting on my own behalf.

The civil liberty issues affect us all, a constant erosion of our individual rights nationally is something we should all be concerned with.

The weather issues affects my family more directly. My father is older and lives alone, suffers from high blood pressure and has issues with anxiety. So yes, scaring him to near death with storm predictions that are going to trap him in his house or have him shoveling 3 feet of snow when in actuality there are only a few inches does directly affect his life (and therefore my life). I just wonder how much of it is intentional to keep him glued to the television and feel it's irresponsible to do that to people.

 

[pantagrapher]

Keep fighting the good fight for the liberty to drive through the city during a blizzard so you can get stranded and block snow plows and emergency vehicles for freedom.

 

[pantagrapher]

Also: nobody is getting arrested simply for going outside.

 

[belljr]

State of Emergency is not a new thing

 

[pantagrapher]

But I'm actually ranting on my own behalf.

The civil liberty issues affect us all, a constant erosion of our individual rights nationally is something we should all be concerned with.

The weather issues affects my family more directly. My father is older and lives alone, suffers from high blood pressure and has issues with anxiety. So yes, scaring him to near death with storm predictions that are going to trap him in his house or have him shoveling 3 feet of snow when in actuality there are only a few inches does directly affect his life (and therefore my life). I just wonder how much of it is intentional to keep him glued to the television and feel it's irresponsible to do that to people.

Do you want to curtail the Weather Channel's liberty to broadcast its storm coverage?

 

[lombardi]

State of Emergency is not a new thing

It is for a half a foot of snow.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

From a forecasting standpoint, weather models still have trouble with precipitation amounts, which are extremely difficult to model. In the summertime, if a weather model predicts 2 inches of rain, but you only get half an inch, you are not likely to even notice the blown forecast. But in the winter, 2 inches of rain can equal 20 inches or more of snow, while half an inch equates to only 6 inches of show. Those differences can result in much more tangible effects on travel and safety. The fact is that with the difficulty of accurately predicting precipitation amounts, combined with winter temperatures where one degree can make the difference between a cold rain and a heavy wet snow, you are going to have situations like this. It is certainly not a conspiracy by the weather illuminati.

 

[lombardi]

But I'm actually ranting on my own behalf.

The civil liberty issues affect us all, a constant erosion of our individual rights nationally is something we should all be concerned with.

The weather issues affects my family more directly. My father is older and lives alone, suffers from high blood pressure and has issues with anxiety. So yes, scaring him to near death with storm predictions that are going to trap him in his house or have him shoveling 3 feet of snow when in actuality there are only a few inches does directly affect his life (and therefore my life). I just wonder how much of it is intentional to keep him glued to the television and feel it's irresponsible to do that to people.

Do you want to curtail the Weather Channel's liberty to broadcast its storm coverage?

Nope. I said it was irresponsible not that they should be put in jail. I mean it's not like they tried to go out and walk on ice or something. Although some of those storm reporters should probably be put in jail out there in those hurricanes, for their own safety of course.

 

[3C's]

From a forecasting standpoint, weather models still have trouble with precipitation amounts, which are extremely difficult to model. In the summertime, if a weather model predicts 2 inches of rain, but you only get half an inch, you are not likely to even notice the blown forecast. But in the winter, 2 inches of rain can equal 20 inches or more of snow, while half an inch equates to only 6 inches of show. Those differences can result in much more tangible effects on travel and safety. The fact is that with the difficulty of accurately predicting precipitation amounts, combined with winter temperatures where one degree can make the difference between a cold rain and a heavy wet snow, you are going to have situations like this. It is certainly not a conspiracy by the weather illuminati.

Stop with that nonsense you!

 

[pantagrapher]

But I'm actually ranting on my own behalf.

The civil liberty issues affect us all, a constant erosion of our individual rights nationally is something we should all be concerned with.

The weather issues affects my family more directly. My father is older and lives alone, suffers from high blood pressure and has issues with anxiety. So yes, scaring him to near death with storm predictions that are going to trap him in his house or have him shoveling 3 feet of snow when in actuality there are only a few inches does directly affect his life (and therefore my life). I just wonder how much of it is intentional to keep him glued to the television and feel it's irresponsible to do that to people.

Do you want to curtail the Weather Channel's liberty to broadcast its storm coverage?

Nope. I said it was irresponsible not that they should be put in jail. I mean it's not like they tried to go out and walk on ice or something. Although some of those storm reporters should probably be put in jail out there in those hurricanes, for their own safety of course.

I hope my daughter doesn't whine this much when I ask her to shovel the driveway.

 

[Officer Pete Malloy]

From a forecasting standpoint, weather models still have trouble with precipitation amounts, which are extremely difficult to model. In the summertime, if a weather model predicts 2 inches of rain, but you only get half an inch, you are not likely to even notice the blown forecast. But in the winter, 2 inches of rain can equal 20 inches or more of snow, while half an inch equates to only 6 inches of show. Those differences can result in much more tangible effects on travel and safety. The fact is that with the difficulty of accurately predicting precipitation amounts, combined with winter temperatures where one degree can make the difference between a cold rain and a heavy wet snow, you are going to have situations like this. It is certainly not a conspiracy by the weather illuminati.

 

[Officer Pete Malloy]

Does infowars have a weather section?

 

[RUSF18]

OP, can you link to these orders about staying off NYC sidewalks where people would be fined/arrested for not complying?

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Yes, NYC residents were told to stay off the sidewalks or fines and/or arrest. Yes, in NJ during a state of emergency you face fines and arrest if caught out in non-emergency vehicles.

So telling a few million people that you're legally not allowed out of your house because there's a storm a brewing and it could be a big one isn't arbitrary than I don't know what is.

You're saying they have to "stay off the sidewalks" and also that people were "not allowed out of your house." Which is it? Do you have a link? I think you're exaggerating, similar to what your are criticizing the Weather Channel of doing.

I read the mayor of NYC warned people yesterday that they may be arrested for driving on city roads after 11:00, but that was never official.

 

[3C's]

Yes, NYC residents were told to stay off the sidewalks or fines and/or arrest. Yes, in NJ during a state of emergency you face fines and arrest if caught out in non-emergency vehicles.

So telling a few million people that you're legally not allowed out of your house because there's a storm a brewing and it could be a big one isn't arbitrary than I don't know what is.

You're saying they have to "stay off the sidewalks" and also that people were "not allowed out of your house." Which is it? Do you have a link? I think you're exaggerating, similar to what your are criticizing the Weather Channel of doing.

I read the mayor of NYC warned people yesterday that they may be arrested for driving on city roads after 11:00, but that was never official.

Saw people out walking all night in NYC coverage by CNN. Right by the cops too.

 

[lombardi]

From a forecasting standpoint, weather models still have trouble with precipitation amounts, which are extremely difficult to model. In the summertime, if a weather model predicts 2 inches of rain, but you only get half an inch, you are not likely to even notice the blown forecast. But in the winter, 2 inches of rain can equal 20 inches or more of snow, while half an inch equates to only 6 inches of show. Those differences can result in much more tangible effects on travel and safety. The fact is that with the difficulty of accurately predicting precipitation amounts, combined with winter temperatures where one degree can make the difference between a cold rain and a heavy wet snow, you are going to have situations like this. It is certainly not a conspiracy by the weather illuminati.

It doesn't have to be an Illuminati conspiracy. It's just logical.

Science needs funding and funding affects results, that's why we have so much political scientific reporting on both sides of the spectrum. Oil companies pay scientists for studies and expect the oil companies to get them the results they want, if not the funding stops. Wealthy philanthropists support scientific studies they anticipate will go their way, if they don't they stop funding them. Government officials LOVE funding studies that prove their point but just try to get money to study something contrary to their political narrative, not going to happen. Scientists don't need to be explicitly told what their results should say but they know where your bread is buttered. It's a difficult thing sometimes to be true to your conscience and the scientific method when it means losing your livelihood or being unemployed which absolutely does happen when things go the wrong direction.

So now add cable network competition, celebrity, millions in advertising to all of that. You honestly don't think it affects the reporting? You don't think there is any pressure on a meteorologist to stress the worse case over the best case? To play up the possibility instead of reporting the probability?

It's not a grassy knoll conspiracy, it's common sense. It's naive to think it's NOT the case.

 

[pantagrapher]

Forecasters correctly predicted a huge storm on the East Coast. Over 2 feet of snow in some areas. Gonna be a huge payday for them.

 

[lombardi]

OP, can you link to these orders about staying off NYC sidewalks where people would be fined/arrested for not complying?

Non-authorized persons caught driving in non-emergency situations will be subject to NYPD summons or even arrest.

“You’re not going anywhere until we lift the emergency order,” he said. “People have to make smart decisions from here on, careful decisions, recognize this as an emergency. It is not business as usual.

http://observer.com/2015/01/de-blasio-orders-indefinite-street-shutdown-tonight-during-blizzard/

 

[3C's]

in other words, no one was forced to stay indoors or off the sidewalks...or even the roads.

 

[lombardi]

Yes, NYC residents were told to stay off the sidewalks or fines and/or arrest. Yes, in NJ during a state of emergency you face fines and arrest if caught out in non-emergency vehicles.

So telling a few million people that you're legally not allowed out of your house because there's a storm a brewing and it could be a big one isn't arbitrary than I don't know what is.

You're saying they have to "stay off the sidewalks" and also that people were "not allowed out of your house." Which is it? Do you have a link? I think you're exaggerating, similar to what your are criticizing the Weather Channel of doing.

I read the mayor of NYC warned people yesterday that they may be arrested for driving on city roads after 11:00, but that was never official.

Well I guess that is a contradiction. I suppose if I lived in NY I could have jumped from my window and to my car without actually touching the sidewalk.

 

[lombardi]

in other words, no one was forced to stay indoors or off the sidewalks...or even the roads.

Uh yeah, because we got 6 inches of snow instead of the 2 feet we were supposed to get when they laid down the law.

 

[joffer]

Forecasters correctly predicted a huge storm on the East Coast. Over 2 feet of snow in some areas. Gonna be a huge payday for them.

paid by the inch with bonus incentives at 1 ft and 2 ft

 

[pantagrapher]

OP, can you link to these orders about staying off NYC sidewalks where people would be fined/arrested for not complying?

Non-authorized persons caught driving in non-emergency situations will be subject to NYPD summons or even arrest.

“You’re not going anywhere until we lift the emergency order,” he said. “People have to make smart decisions from here on, careful decisions, recognize this as an emergency. It is not business as usual.

http://observer.com/2015/01/de-blasio-orders-indefinite-street-shutdown-tonight-during-blizzard/

So nobody was ordered to stay inside or be arrested. They were ordered not to drive around during the blizzard unless it was an emergency.

Tyranny.

 

[DCThunder]

I'm much less concerned with #1 than I am with #2. I agree that governments have too much power over citizens, but that seems to be the way citizens want it, especially in Deep Blue states such as NJ, NY (specifically NYC) and CT.

BTW, how come DiBlasio didn't claim that the storm adversely affected poor people more than the wealthy? Isn't that his schtick?

 

[Kilgore Trout]

So now add cable network competition, celebrity, millions in advertising to all of that. You honestly don't think it affects the reporting? You don't think there is any pressure on a meteorologist to stress the worse case over the best case? To play up the possibility instead of reporting the probability?

Sensationalism is rampant in all sorts of news reporting. But they were just reporting what the weather models were telling them. If there is a chance that a significant weather event could cause harm to people, as was predicted here, it is a meteorologist's job to inform the public. Sometimes they just happen to be wrong.

 

[RUSF18]

in other words, no one was forced to stay indoors or off the sidewalks...or even the roads.

Uh yeah, because we got 6 inches of snow instead of the 2 feet we were supposed to get when they laid down the law.

Nice try but you said NYC ordered people off the sidewalks, with fines and jail resulting for non-compliance. No such order was ever given.

You were full of ####, and props to the guy who said you were doing exactly what you're complaining about in the first place.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Forecasters correctly predicted a huge storm on the East Coast. Over 2 feet of snow in some areas. Gonna be a huge payday for them.

Bill Belichick said for them to be suddenly so accurate they must have cheated.

 

[3C's]

in other words, no one was forced to stay indoors or off the sidewalks...or even the roads.

Uh yeah, because we got 6 inches of snow instead of the 2 feet we were supposed to get when they laid down the law.

So, no one was forced to stay indoors? Even if it had snowed 2 feet, no one would have been forced to stay indoors.

 

[pantagrapher]

in other words, no one was forced to stay indoors or off the sidewalks...or even the roads.

Uh yeah, because we got 6 inches of snow instead of the 2 feet we were supposed to get when they laid down the law.

I don't think you should run a city.

 

[lombardi]

I'm much less concerned with #1 than I am with #2. I agree that governments have too much power over citizens, but that seems to be the way citizens want it, especially in Deep Blue states such as NJ, NY (specifically NYC) and CT.

BTW, how come DiBlasio didn't claim that the storm adversely affected poor people more than the wealthy? Isn't that his schtick?

Well he did tell business owners not to be cheapskates.

 

[Fennis]

fine, there is no such thing as global warming and the earth is 10,000 years old.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Yes, NYC residents were told to stay off the sidewalks or fines and/or arrest. Yes, in NJ during a state of emergency you face fines and arrest if caught out in non-emergency vehicles.

So telling a few million people that you're legally not allowed out of your house because there's a storm a brewing and it could be a big one isn't arbitrary than I don't know what is.

You're saying they have to "stay off the sidewalks" and also that people were "not allowed out of your house." Which is it? Do you have a link? I think you're exaggerating, similar to what your are criticizing the Weather Channel of doing.

I read the mayor of NYC warned people yesterday that they may be arrested for driving on city roads after 11:00, but that was never official.

Well I guess that is a contradiction. I suppose if I lived in NY I could have jumped from my window and to my car without actually touching the sidewalk.

Sure, you could have done that. Or you could have gone about your business as normal.

Its true the media hypes storms to manufacture interest and drive viewership. You're hyping the civil liberties angle by manufacturing injustice through misrepresentation and exaggeration.

 

[fantasycurse42]

in other words, no one was forced to stay indoors or off the sidewalks...or even the roads.

Uh yeah, because we got 6 inches of snow instead of the 2 feet we were supposed to get when they laid down the law.

Nice try but you said NYC ordered people off the sidewalks, with fines and jail resulting for non-compliance. No such order was ever given.You were full of ####, and props to the guy who said you were doing exactly what you're complaining about in the first place.

I went for a walk last night to measure the snowfall and brave the historical event... This was midnightish:http://i.imgur.com/E0klWtE.jpg

I walked by a few different cops with no incidents.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I think we should do away with the weather forecasters altogether. Let people just look the window and decide for themselves.

 

[lombardi]

Yes, NYC residents were told to stay off the sidewalks or fines and/or arrest. Yes, in NJ during a state of emergency you face fines and arrest if caught out in non-emergency vehicles.

So telling a few million people that you're legally not allowed out of your house because there's a storm a brewing and it could be a big one isn't arbitrary than I don't know what is.

You're saying they have to "stay off the sidewalks" and also that people were "not allowed out of your house." Which is it? Do you have a link? I think you're exaggerating, similar to what your are criticizing the Weather Channel of doing.

I read the mayor of NYC warned people yesterday that they may be arrested for driving on city roads after 11:00, but that was never official.

Well I guess that is a contradiction. I suppose if I lived in NY I could have jumped from my window and to my car without actually touching the sidewalk.

Sure, you could have done that. Or you could have gone about your business as normal.

Its true the media hypes storms to manufacture interest and drive viewership. You're hyping the civil liberties angle by manufacturing injustice through misrepresentation and exaggeration.

No, you're right. Nobody is forced off the sidewalks. I got carried away a little bit and was definitely wrong about that and pushed a little far.

I just know that we were under a lot of restrictions after Sandy and there was a lot of government control that got out of hand and I got pretty bent out of shape about it, I still am. I'm probably projecting some of my experience there into this and that's not exactly fair.

It doesn't discount the intent of the post though. We are ordered off of the streets (driving) and can be arrested and fined for driving around and nothing actually happened. We were told by our govenor to be home by 9pm. Public transportation in NYC was shut down by 11pm. There was only 4-6 inches of snow. The government has gotten too comfortable shutting things down, taking complete control, and interfering in people's lives for their own good. I don't like it, I never have, and I think it's getting worse.

I overstepped and although it weakens the point I am trying to make, it doesn't negate it.