Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

[TheIronSheik]

Overnight model runs are starting to push this storm (storms) off shore. Normally, a trend is something worth noting, but with this split flow pattern, I really think that until this comes onshore in the Pacific, without sampling the models are pretty much just guessing. That doesn't mean they can't be accurate right now. But as I stated in a post yesterday, probably won't get a good handle on this until Friday night, at least. Still something to keep an eye on though.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Someone really need to go back and look at the percentage of "big East Cost snow storms" that are modeled a week out that actually verify.

I bet it's less than 20%.

Great to be able to see the ones that do happen far in advance, but usually not worth getting excited about until 48-72 hours. And in DC maybe not until snow actually starts falling.

 

[3C's]

Someone really need to go back and look at the percentage of "big East Cost snow storms" that are modeled a week out that actually verify.

I bet it's less than 20%.

Great to be able to see the ones that do happen far in advance, but usually not worth getting excited about until 48-72 hours. And in DC maybe not until snow actually starts falling.

A lot can change in a week when it comes to models but this one is looking pretty good for the NE.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Someone really need to go back and look at the percentage of "big East Cost snow storms" that are modeled a week out that actually verify.

I bet it's less than 20%.

Great to be able to see the ones that do happen far in advance, but usually not worth getting excited about until 48-72 hours. And in DC maybe not until snow actually starts falling.

Actually, the number would be much higher. The storms are almost always there. It's just a matter of which track they take. I've seen forecasts call for a huge nor'easter, where a city like Philly may end up getting an inch but it dumps a foot all over New England. And when that happens, people will always tell me, "This storm was a bust." Well, yes, maybe here, but just 100 miles to the north and west, they are digging out from over a foot of snow.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Someone really need to go back and look at the percentage of "big East Cost snow storms" that are modeled a week out that actually verify.

I bet it's less than 20%.

Great to be able to see the ones that do happen far in advance, but usually not worth getting excited about until 48-72 hours. And in DC maybe not until snow actually starts falling.

Actually, the number would be much higher. The storms are almost always there. It's just a matter of which track they take. I've seen forecasts call for a huge nor'easter, where a city like Philly may end up getting an inch but it dumps a foot all over New England. And when that happens, people will always tell me, "This storm was a bust." Well, yes, maybe here, but just 100 miles to the north and west, they are digging out from over a foot of snow.

Fair enough...I was talking about the local odds. I'm just a cynical old resident of the DMV who's seen one too many 35-degree rainstorms, apparently.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Someone really need to go back and look at the percentage of "big East Cost snow storms" that are modeled a week out that actually verify.

I bet it's less than 20%.

Great to be able to see the ones that do happen far in advance, but usually not worth getting excited about until 48-72 hours. And in DC maybe not until snow actually starts falling.

Actually, the number would be much higher. The storms are almost always there. It's just a matter of which track they take. I've seen forecasts call for a huge nor'easter, where a city like Philly may end up getting an inch but it dumps a foot all over New England. And when that happens, people will always tell me, "This storm was a bust." Well, yes, maybe here, but just 100 miles to the north and west, they are digging out from over a foot of snow.

Fair enough...I was talking about the local odds. I'm just a cynical old resident of the DMV who's seen one too many 35-degree rainstorms, apparently.

Washington area is always a tough area to call, especially when it's not the dead of winter.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro came back with the storm. At this range, Euro is the best model, although cut off lows are the toughest to forecast for any model. Ensembles run at 4:30.

 

[Jaysus]

Fair enough...I was talking about the local odds. I'm just a cynical old resident of the DMV who's seen one too many 35-degree rainstorms, apparently.

When did that become a thing?

 

[Swing 51]

Fair enough...I was talking about the local odds. I'm just a cynical old resident of the DMV who's seen one too many 35-degree rainstorms, apparently.

When did that become a thing?

Around 2010 I think. I still use DC Metro area but I'm old, I guess.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Things are getting interesting. First off, it looks like my original prediction will end up being right after all, as this storm will be a 9th to 10th storm. Still hasn't reached onshore, so no sampling has been done. Looks like that should happen sometime tomorrow. While I'm really hoping that this thing brings my area monster snow, initial thoughts are it might be just a little too warm for snow. New England still looks like they could be getting dumped on.

Every model now is pretty much on board with there being some kind of coastal storm next week. Well. Every one except the GFS. Which is crap from long range.

From the WPC long range discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 08 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 12 2014

...OVERVIEW...

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD BE ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS... WITH THE WEST COAST ON THE LEADING SIDE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC MEAN FLOW OVER THE ERN PAC AND THE NORTHEAST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN UPR TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE AGREES REASONABLY WELL WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FCST BUT MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH
EMBEDDED DETAILS.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

AMONG THE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST THE EAST COAST APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATER FCST COMPLEXITY. AS THE UPR TROUGH REACHES THE ERN STATES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY
INCORPORATE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY... SOME FROM PAC FLOW
CROSSING THE LOWER 48 AND THE REMAINDER ORIGINATING FROM NWRN
CANADA. THE INCLUSION OF HIGHER LATITUDE ENERGY IN PARTICULAR
TENDS TO BE PROBLEMATIC AS IT USUALLY TAKES LONGER FOR GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE IMPORTANT DETAILS RELATIVE TO MID-LATITUDE FLOW. AN
ADDITIONAL PROBLEM IN THIS FCST IS THE UNCERTAIN INFLUENCE FROM
UPSTREAM WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE W-CNTRL CONUS MEAN
RIDGE. BASED ON SOLN SPREAD THROUGH THE 12Z/18Z CYCLE AND WPC
CONTINUITY... THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PROVIDES THE BEST
INDIVIDUAL SOLN AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE FCST. 12Z
GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS A WHOLE RECOMMENDED A TRACK
SOMEWHAT E OF THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF... THOUGH ADDITION OF THE
NEW 00Z UKMET/CMC SEEM TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT
WRN SFC TRACK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE MON-WED PERIOD. AT
THE VERY LEAST THE 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE ECMWF
MEAN IDEA OF HINTING AT SOME FLOW SEPARATION ALOFT AND BETTER
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING COMPARED TO RECENT GEFS MEANS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...


AS WAS THE CASE FOR ANOTHER RECENT EVENT ALONG THE EAST COAST...
FCSTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK RANGE FROM A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW
STORM AT SOME LOCATIONS TO FAIRLY MODEST PCPN. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF FLOW ALOFT SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARD A SYSTEM THAT
IS AT LEAST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING MEANINGFUL PCPN TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE ENERGY FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING AN
AREA OF MSTR ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS AND VICINITY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

 

[TheIronSheik]

With each model run, it's starting to look more and more like something big is coming.

 

[DCThunder]

Here is a link to the Capital Weather Gang's 2 week forcast for the DC area.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/04/two-week-outlook-as-warmth-builds-over-central-u-s-staying-december-like-over-d-c-area/

Tell me where the big snow storm is in this outlook, Sheik?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here is a link to the Capital Weather Gang's 2 week forcast for the DC area.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/04/two-week-outlook-as-warmth-builds-over-central-u-s-staying-december-like-over-d-c-area/

Tell me where the big snow storm is in this outlook, Sheik?

Both Monday and Tuesday look on the side chance with maximum temperatures running in the low to middle 40s with a slight chance of rain and a remote chance of snow.

It's still early, but I don't think DC will see snow from this. In fact, my area is going to have a tough time seeing snow from this.

 

[3C's]

Here is a link to the Capital Weather Gang's 2 week forcast for the DC area.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/04/two-week-outlook-as-warmth-builds-over-central-u-s-staying-december-like-over-d-c-area/

Tell me where the big snow storm is in this outlook, Sheik?

https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10849897_784650268248900_618786320854026863_n.jpg?oh=a6adc228baf52699c5c8ab787775c01a&oe=551EC97F

 

[TheIronSheik]

This storm's going to be a beast. Hopefully we get one like this in late January when enough cold air is in place to get everyone a foot or so of snow. Looks like most of what I get will be rain, maybe some mixing at the end. NWS has us at less than an inch of snow, but I think that's being overly generous. Inland places could see over a foot in PA and NY.

This storm looks to be at its worst for Philly right during AM rush hour. Great. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally more. Heavy downpours, flooding and gusty winds. In other words, miserable.

 

[TheIronSheik]

This storm's going to be a beast. Hopefully we get one like this in late January when enough cold air is in place to get everyone a foot or so of snow. Looks like most of what I get will be rain, maybe some mixing at the end. NWS has us at less than an inch of snow, but I think that's being overly generous. Inland places could see over a foot in PA and NY.

This storm looks to be at its worst for Philly right during AM rush hour. Great. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally more. Heavy downpours, flooding and gusty winds. In other words, miserable.

I see why they're doing this now. Seems some models are trying to move the line south. Still not sure I agree with the call, but I'll take it if it happens. Most models have the rain/snow line very close to me. Even the slightest movement could mean the difference between all rain and 3 to 4 inches of snow. Crunch time.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Going very long range, the next really good storm signal is December 10th.

Just wanted to say good job predicting this Nor'easter 20 days out, Sheik.

 

[DCThunder]

Going very long range, the next really good storm signal is December 10th.

Just wanted to say good job predicting this Nor'easter 20 days out, Sheik.

So will we have a White Christmas, Sheikodomos?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Going very long range, the next really good storm signal is December 10th.

Just wanted to say good job predicting this Nor'easter 20 days out, Sheik.

So will we have a White Christmas, Sheikodomos?

Nor sure. I said previously that there's a possibility around Christmas for a storm signal, but it's not as good as this past one.

 

[PIK95]

Going to Santa's village in N.H. or Maine this weekend. How am I looking for snow?

Not 100% sure, but I think there's a chance of snow this weekend for northern New England

Good call! It was snowing in Santa's village all day on Saturday. It was raining in North Conway and along the east (Ocean Side of the mountains) in the Mt. Washington valley area.

 

[mr roboto]

TIS what about the Midwest? We have a brown Christmas right now in Chicago. Will we get snow in time for Santa?

 

[TheIronSheik]

TIS what about the Midwest? We have a brown Christmas right now in Chicago. Will we get snow in time for Santa?

I'm not sure. I usually just focus on the east coast since that's where I am.

 

[mr roboto]

TIS what about the Midwest? We have a brown Christmas right now in Chicago. Will we get snow in time for Santa?

I'm not sure. I usually just focus on the east coast since that's where I am.

Selfish #######.

 

[TheIronSheik]

TIS what about the Midwest? We have a brown Christmas right now in Chicago. Will we get snow in time for Santa?

I'm not sure. I usually just focus on the east coast since that's where I am.

Selfish #######.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Going very long range, the next really good storm signal is December 10th.

Just wanted to say good job predicting this Nor'easter 20 days out, Sheik.

So will we have a White Christmas, Sheikodomos?

Nor sure. I said previously that there's a possibility around Christmas for a storm signal, but it's not as good as this past one.

Looks like some models are looking at a possible storm for New England around the 18th. As of now, this would be mainly for NE and not the MA. But we are obviously way too far out to know. Lots of things can happen.

 

[jhib]

This storm is messing with us (Fingerlakes in central NY). We were in the 6-10" range as of yesterday, and since it was supposed to start hitting us yesterday afternoon, the school district cancelled all after school activities. My kids were hoping for a snow day, but it seemed to come to a halt just East of us and didn't even start raining here until late last night, so it sounded like we were only going to get a couple inches. Changed over to snow at some point, but not enough by the time the district had to make the call to cancel. Now it's been snowing all morning and it looks like we're back closer to yesterday's estimates. Pick up time should be fun.

It seems to be happening pretty often the last few years that the district looks bad, cancelling when we don't get much and holding school when the weather takes a turn for the worse and the roads are bad. They just can't win lately.

 

[TheIronSheik]

This storm is messing with us (Fingerlakes in central NY). We were in the 6-10" range as of yesterday, and since it was supposed to start hitting us yesterday afternoon, the school district cancelled all after school activities. My kids were hoping for a snow day, but it seemed to come to a halt just East of us and didn't even start raining here until late last night, so it sounded like we were only going to get a couple inches. Changed over to snow at some point, but not enough by the time the district had to make the call to cancel. Now it's been snowing all morning and it looks like we're back closer to yesterday's estimates. Pick up time should be fun.

It seems to be happening pretty often the last few years that the district looks bad, cancelling when we don't get much and holding school when the weather takes a turn for the worse and the roads are bad. They just can't win lately.

One thing that pisses me off is when the school district doesn't err on the side of caution. Last year a couple of times they had school when a storm was predicted to hit around the 9 AM time frame. As soon as they picked the kids up, they were sending out a text saying they would be dismissing as quickly as possible. I get that school days suck for scheduling, but these are kids lives your gambling with.

One big issue I have here is that the local mets use one model. And a lot of times that model will not agree with other models. So if you're watching the local news, they'll be telling you that nothing is coming, or way underselling it. And that's fine if they think that, but they say it like it's set in stone and that only their forecast is correct.

 

[Gawain]

This storm is messing with us (Fingerlakes in central NY). We were in the 6-10" range as of yesterday, and since it was supposed to start hitting us yesterday afternoon, the school district cancelled all after school activities. My kids were hoping for a snow day, but it seemed to come to a halt just East of us and didn't even start raining here until late last night, so it sounded like we were only going to get a couple inches. Changed over to snow at some point, but not enough by the time the district had to make the call to cancel. Now it's been snowing all morning and it looks like we're back closer to yesterday's estimates. Pick up time should be fun.

It seems to be happening pretty often the last few years that the district looks bad, cancelling when we don't get much and holding school when the weather takes a turn for the worse and the roads are bad. They just can't win lately.

I went to school just north of Seneca Lake and we complained about the district back then. It's a shame the schools put money ahead of student safety, but that's the main impetus to not cancel a day.

 

[TheIronSheik]

This storm is messing with us (Fingerlakes in central NY). We were in the 6-10" range as of yesterday, and since it was supposed to start hitting us yesterday afternoon, the school district cancelled all after school activities. My kids were hoping for a snow day, but it seemed to come to a halt just East of us and didn't even start raining here until late last night, so it sounded like we were only going to get a couple inches. Changed over to snow at some point, but not enough by the time the district had to make the call to cancel. Now it's been snowing all morning and it looks like we're back closer to yesterday's estimates. Pick up time should be fun.

It seems to be happening pretty often the last few years that the district looks bad, cancelling when we don't get much and holding school when the weather takes a turn for the worse and the roads are bad. They just can't win lately.

I went to school just north of Seneca Lake and we complained about the district back then. It's a shame the schools put money ahead of student safety, but that's the main impetus to not cancel a day.

It's not just the schools, though. On my FB news feed on days where big storms are forecasted, I'd say half of my feed will complain if the schools close before snow starts to fall. Because they work and their work isn't closed.

 

[TheIronSheik]

TIS what about the Midwest? We have a brown Christmas right now in Chicago. Will we get snow in time for Santa?

I'm not sure. I usually just focus on the east coast since that's where I am.

Selfish #######.

Looks like some models have a possible storm for the Midwest during the 19th to 21st time frame.

 

[TheIronSheik]

That storm signal for around the 24th-25th is starting to look better. People in the Northeast could be seeing a white Christmas if it holds up.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Long term, it looks like things could get stormy again around Christmas. Not a strong storm signal, but something to watch. Won't matter to me, as I'll be down in Texas enjoying a respite from the cold weather.

This is looking better with each run. Time frame looks to be right before Christmas, if it happens. I could be 2 for 2 on the long range forecast before we even hit January.

 

[3C's]

Snow, snow and more snow. Potential for 3 events over the next couple of weeks. And I'm not on call.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Models really liking that Dec. 22nd possible storm. Long ways out, but something to watch. It'll probably end up being a huge storm and I'll be down in Texas missing out on it, like Margot in All Summer in a Day.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Long term, it looks like things could get stormy again around Christmas. Not a strong storm signal, but something to watch. Won't matter to me, as I'll be down in Texas enjoying a respite from the cold weather.

Looks like there may actually be 3 storm possibilities around Christmas. I still like the Christmas Eve storm possibilities the best, but models are showing interest in the 21st and the 27th, as well. Can't believe I'm going to miss out on it. :(

 

[Otis]

Long term, it looks like things could get stormy again around Christmas. Not a strong storm signal, but something to watch. Won't matter to me, as I'll be down in Texas enjoying a respite from the cold weather.

Looks like there may actually be 3 storm possibilities around Christmas. I still like the Christmas Eve storm possibilities the best, but models are showing interest in the 21st and the 27th, as well. Can't believe I'm going to miss out on it. :(

White Christmas would be pretty awesome for my girls. Make this happen, Weathernerds.

 

[TheIronSheik]

A good article on this weekend's potential storm.

A storm at Thanksgiving and a possible back to back wallop right before Christmas? Talk about being under the microscope as well as being in a lose-lose situation.

 

[3C's]

I hope it snows like crazy here this weekend. Supposed to have family over on Sunday but would much rather watch football.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Models are moving away from snowstorm for this weekend. The Christmas Eve one is probably the one to still keep an eye on. Still a very long way out.

 

[3C's]

Hoping the snow this weekend makes it to east/central VA. :fingerscrossed:

 

[TheIronSheik]

Models are moving away from snowstorm for this weekend. The Christmas Eve one is probably the one to still keep an eye on. Still a very long way out.

Looks like if the weekend storm fizzles, the chances for the Christmas Eve storm increase.

 

[3C's]

Models are moving away from snowstorm for this weekend. The Christmas Eve one is probably the one to still keep an eye on. Still a very long way out.

Snow won't make it to us so I guess I'm cooking for the family this weekend. Lean-to set up so I won't get drenched. Won't see snow down here for Christmas either but some people might be seeing some pretty serious weather.

 

[Tom Servo]

So, how does it look for Christmas, el Sheikie?

 

[TheIronSheik]

So, how does it look for Christmas, el Sheikie?

For where?

 

[Swing 51]

Looking like a nightmare for travel on Dec 24 for great lakes area

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looking like a nightmare for travel on Dec 24 for great lakes area

Yeah. That area could be bad. Still a ways out though.

 

[Henry Ford]

Models are moving away from snowstorm for this weekend. The Christmas Eve one is probably the one to still keep an eye on. Still a very long way out.

I've noticed this a lot. Women in snowstorms are usually pretty large.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Boy, this thread dies when I'm not around.

Next storm signal is January 14th - 16th.

 

[Swing 51]

Boy, this thread dies when I'm not around.

Next storm signal is January 14th - 16th.

Would it kill you for an update Sheik? You must be out shoveling.

 

[Fat Nick]

Boy, this thread dies when I'm not around.

Next storm signal is January 14th - 16th.

Would it kill you for an update Sheik? You must be out shoveling.

Seriously. My drive in sucked.

Side-note...WTF kind of name is "Winter Storm Gorgon?" I'm expecting ogres and wizards to start casting spells on us soon.

ETA - Just found the full name list... Looks like a bunch more stupid names coming. Can't wait for winter storm Lunus to blanket us with snow, and I hope Sparta is big too so I can run out in the snow and just yell, "THIS IS SPARTA!"