Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

[3C's]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

 

[Koya]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

 

[TheIronSheik]

The NWS has backed off of the thinking that we could see 12+ inches, which was expected as we got closer to the storm. I'm still thinking we end around 6 to 9 inches. Here's the 8 inches or more map.

 

[3C's]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

Someone I trust says NYC will be too warm, so I believe the same would carry over to LI. Guess we'll see.

 

[Koya]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

Someone I trust says NYC will be too warm, so I believe the same would carry over to LI. Guess we'll see.

LI gets real tricky with these. The city has a boost of 1-3 degrees in general over the surrounding areas that are more suburban and less density. As you go East, you have more influence from the water, which is often a degree or two. Same with the South Shore vs. the North Shore if the winds are coming sorta NW swirling around in the storm.

They are actually predicting that the line could very well fall so that NYC is just a bit too warm for the brunt, same with LI's south shore and east end, but the north shore (where I am) toward Western Nassau County could be more snow.

 

[JaxBill]

Meanwhile locally in NFlorida, we're gonna get dumped on with rain tonight. Right now it's upper 60's and very humid as we're between two bands. First the lower band hitting I-4 currently is supposed to move up then the upper band currently in SGeorgia is supposed to dive down as the cold front moves south.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

Someone I trust says NYC will be too warm, so I believe the same would carry over to LI. Guess we'll see.

LI gets real tricky with these. The city has a boost of 1-3 degrees in general over the surrounding areas that are more suburban and less density. As you go East, you have more influence from the water, which is often a degree or two. Same with the South Shore vs. the North Shore if the winds are coming sorta NW swirling around in the storm.

They are actually predicting that the line could very well fall so that NYC is just a bit too warm for the brunt, same with LI's south shore and east end, but the north shore (where I am) toward Western Nassau County could be more snow.

One forecast I saw for NYC (and again, I'm not familiar with NYC, so I'm not sure really if what I'm posting makes sense) has 1-2 inches in Brooklyn/Queens, 2-4 in Manhattan, 3 to 5 in the Bronx. Then they said the rest of LI would likely see sleet and rain with an occasional changeover to snow.

HTH

 

[TheIronSheik]

Meanwhile locally in NFlorida, we're gonna get dumped on with rain tonight. Right now it's upper 60's and very humid as we're between two bands. First the lower band hitting I-4 currently is supposed to move up then the upper band currently in SGeorgia is supposed to dive down as the cold front moves south.

That moisture being pulled out of the GOM, moving across N FL, is what's feeding this nor'easter.

 

[Koya]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

Someone I trust says NYC will be too warm, so I believe the same would carry over to LI. Guess we'll see.

LI gets real tricky with these. The city has a boost of 1-3 degrees in general over the surrounding areas that are more suburban and less density. As you go East, you have more influence from the water, which is often a degree or two. Same with the South Shore vs. the North Shore if the winds are coming sorta NW swirling around in the storm.

They are actually predicting that the line could very well fall so that NYC is just a bit too warm for the brunt, same with LI's south shore and east end, but the north shore (where I am) toward Western Nassau County could be more snow.

One forecast I saw for NYC (and again, I'm not familiar with NYC, so I'm not sure really if what I'm posting makes sense) has 1-2 inches in Brooklyn/Queens, 2-4 in Manhattan, 3 to 5 in the Bronx. Then they said the rest of LI would likely see sleet and rain with an occasional changeover to snow.

HTH

That makes sense. If the line is basically on Manhattan then points north west will get the most (all) snow, points north and just east a mix with a bit more snow (more north, even 5-10 miles can make a difference because of the effects of the ocean).

As I am on the very northern tip of Nassau it's a bit further out than Queens (maybe 8-10 miles as the crow flies) but still north enough that it may mean an extra inch or two.

Anything south / east of us is probably all rain under this scenario, or almost all.

 

[Koya]

As of now, Northern Nassau looking at 4-6 of heavy wet snow. Honestly, I hope it somehow gets to a foot so I can tool around in the Jeep.

 

[Gawain]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

Someone I trust says NYC will be too warm, so I believe the same would carry over to LI. Guess we'll see.

LI gets real tricky with these. The city has a boost of 1-3 degrees in general over the surrounding areas that are more suburban and less density. As you go East, you have more influence from the water, which is often a degree or two. Same with the South Shore vs. the North Shore if the winds are coming sorta NW swirling around in the storm.

They are actually predicting that the line could very well fall so that NYC is just a bit too warm for the brunt, same with LI's south shore and east end, but the north shore (where I am) toward Western Nassau County could be more snow.

LOOK AT MY GOLD COAST MANSION

 

[DCThunder]

LOOK AT MY GOLD COAST MANSION

He lives in West Egg, right next to Jay Gatsby.

 

[Koya]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

As usual, Long Island has a full range of potential. Quite possible that I get 4-6 inches on the north shore closer to the City while areas south and east could see as little as nothing.

Or the storm shifts and most of the island gets 6 with East end not quite cold enough.

Or, what is likely, we get some snow but nothing really sticks.

Meanwhile, go 20 miles from the city in the other direction and its likely all snow

Someone I trust says NYC will be too warm, so I believe the same would carry over to LI. Guess we'll see.

LI gets real tricky with these. The city has a boost of 1-3 degrees in general over the surrounding areas that are more suburban and less density. As you go East, you have more influence from the water, which is often a degree or two. Same with the South Shore vs. the North Shore if the winds are coming sorta NW swirling around in the storm.

They are actually predicting that the line could very well fall so that NYC is just a bit too warm for the brunt, same with LI's south shore and east end, but the north shore (where I am) toward Western Nassau County could be more snow.

LOOK AT MY GOLD COAST MANSION

SOON.

For now, I have a nice spot that I rent with the wife that does have a view of the Long Island sound, though, and is a quick jump to the City.

However, out my front door is Morgan Park, a former Morgan Estate and down the block is Wayne Manor from Batman (Webb Institute in real life)

 

[VA703]

Rain/snow line in VA right along 95 so no snow here, just a nasty cold ### rain.

yep looks like itll be too warm

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like there is a potential that we could see thundersnow from this system.

 

[3C's]

Another good update from a talented met.

This one is still a nail biter outside the mountains in Virginia and Maryland especially. I have considered all the latest guidance, including RAP short range. The models do sharpen the trough quickly tonight, which backs the flow,pulls in copious Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Next will be to watch the temps come down aloft and at the surface. This is still a little too warm outside the mountains for a legitmate On-The-Ground Snowstorm in the MidAtlantic but it will pile up in the Mountains ,and probably come down hard enough outside the mountains in western Virginia, northern Virginia, DC, central and western Maryland. I won't rule out a mix or quick changeover to snow even in part of the piedmont of VA and western NC tomorrow, but that will be determind by heavy RATES of precip (dynamic cooling). Safest bet for major accumulations is in the Smokies, up northeast through the mountain chain, and then into the Northeast States.
Places like DC to Charlottesville are on the line for a cold mostly rain event to just a degree or two making the difference and going over to Full-on Heavy, Wet Snow, that piles up in the Grass and Bushes. This will melt rapidly everywhere, thanks to warm grounds and above freezing temps. Some Cities affected from south to north: Asheville Boone Johnson City Roanoke Bluefield Charlottesville Warrenton Winchester Staunton Washington Baltimore Hagerstown
I am working on a full update at my site...but here's a Graphic indicating the progression of the Storm through Wednesday Night.
~ wxsouth

 

[TheIronSheik]

The NWS just put out their new update and they have upped their totals. They have Philly as 2 to 4 inches. Start time should still be prior to sunrise.

Also, for my Philly friends, it looks like it may start as a mix of snow and rain for you, then quickly turn over to all snow. The rain/snow line is moving east as the short range models start to get into their wheelhouse.

 

[Gawain]

For now, I have a nice spot that I rent with the wife that does have a view of the Long Island sound, though, and is a quick jump to the City.

However, out my front door is Morgan Park, a former Morgan Estate and down the block is Wayne Manor from Batman (Webb Institute in real life)

Heh, I'm a South Shore plebeian, (though I enjoy being on the bay.) Think the fanciest things down here are a sewage plant and a Wendy's.

 

[Koya]

For now, I have a nice spot that I rent with the wife that does have a view of the Long Island sound, though, and is a quick jump to the City.

However, out my front door is Morgan Park, a former Morgan Estate and down the block is Wayne Manor from Batman (Webb Institute in real life)

Heh, I'm a South Shore plebeian, (though I enjoy being on the bay.) Think the fanciest things down here are a sewage plant and a Wendy's.

You've got All American Burger.

 

[TheIronSheik]

New update of the 12+ inches or more. I believe they moved the area back down south because there is a good chance of some banding. And if that happens, some areas could see over a foot of snow. It would be similar to the Snow Bowl last year when my area got about 4 inches of snow and Philly got about 16 inches.

ETA: Forgot to put the link in.

 

[JaxBill]

For now, I have a nice spot that I rent with the wife that does have a view of the Long Island sound, though, and is a quick jump to the City.

However, out my front door is Morgan Park, a former Morgan Estate and down the block is Wayne Manor from Batman (Webb Institute in real life)

Heh, I'm a South Shore plebeian, (though I enjoy being on the bay.) Think the fanciest things down here are a sewage plant and a Wendy's.

Are the smells that much different?

 

[Gawain]

For now, I have a nice spot that I rent with the wife that does have a view of the Long Island sound, though, and is a quick jump to the City.

However, out my front door is Morgan Park, a former Morgan Estate and down the block is Wayne Manor from Batman (Webb Institute in real life)

Heh, I'm a South Shore plebeian, (though I enjoy being on the bay.) Think the fanciest things down here are a sewage plant and a Wendy's.

Are the smells that much different?

Sometimes people smoke weed outside of Wendy's. Looks like my drive through Orange, Putnam and Delaware counties should go swimmingly.

When is this dumb storm supposed to peter out?

 

[TheIronSheik]

For now, I have a nice spot that I rent with the wife that does have a view of the Long Island sound, though, and is a quick jump to the City.

However, out my front door is Morgan Park, a former Morgan Estate and down the block is Wayne Manor from Batman (Webb Institute in real life)

Heh, I'm a South Shore plebeian, (though I enjoy being on the bay.) Think the fanciest things down here are a sewage plant and a Wendy's.

Are the smells that much different?

Sometimes people smoke weed outside of Wendy's. Looks like my drive through Orange, Putnam and Delaware counties should go swimmingly.

When is this dumb storm supposed to peter out?

For NYC, probably just after midnight.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Not to be outdone by the Weather Channel, I started naming storms last year, too. I've named this one Winter Storm Cosby.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

So you're saying the bad weather is the least of your problems?

Precisely

 

[Parrothead]

Not to be outdone by the Weather Channel, I started naming storms last year, too. I've named this one Winter Storm Cosby.

so its going to come while we are sleeping?

 

[PatriotJohn]

Sheik.....since yu are the model afficianado, I have a few websites you may be interested in if you haven't found them already:

http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ NWS Enhanced Data Display

http://www.simuawips.com/ SIMAWIPS....you will have to register for a free account but there is some neat stuff in here.

http://maps.avnwx.com/index.html Aviation weather

http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;q=Dayton%2C%20Ohio%2C%20United%20States Weather Spark. URL is for Dayton, but you can change that.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Penn Stat E-Wall.....model data Galore!

http://wxcaster.com/weather.php3 Wxcaster.com. This is a favorite of mine. Earl Barker is the guy who runs this site and he is a certified computer weahter geek. All of this data is run through his home servers.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/ IPS Meteostar. The 16-Day numerical data is worth visiting this site alone

Enjoy!

 

[Otis]

Sheik, what can we expect on Long Island?

 

[JetMaxx]

Sheik.....since yu are the model afficianado, I have a few websites you may be interested in if you haven't found them already:

http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ NWS Enhanced Data Display

http://www.simuawips.com/ SIMAWIPS....you will have to register for a free account but there is some neat stuff in here.

http://maps.avnwx.com/index.html Aviation weather

http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;q=Dayton%2C%20Ohio%2C%20United%20States Weather Spark. URL is for Dayton, but you can change that.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Penn Stat E-Wall.....model data Galore!

http://wxcaster.com/weather.php3 Wxcaster.com. This is a favorite of mine. Earl Barker is the guy who runs this site and he is a certified computer weahter geek. All of this data is run through his home servers.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/ IPS Meteostar. The 16-Day numerical data is worth visiting this site alone

Enjoy!

Does Sheik know about the HRRR?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

40 & raining here in western VA, but snowing on the ridges. Supposed to change over to snow by about 6 a.m.

The local weather hobbyists I follow on facebook have been on 4-7" since Monday a.m.. TWC's "local" forecast for my area has been all over the place - just yesterday they had, at various times, 8-12" & 3-5". They've settled in this morning at 5-8".

 

[Ned]

Cool Sheik. Channel 6 just said we're right on the snow/sleet line and are just calling for maybe 1-3 in the city with most of it being a lehigh valley event.

Who are you going to listen to, Sheik or Action News?

I believe whatever comes out of Cecily's mouth. Sorry, GB.

43 and steady rain here. GB that sexy mamma.

 

[Jaysus]

I am disappointed to wake up to less than 6" today.

ETA: you heard me!

 

[Ned]

I am disappointed to wake up to less than 6" today.

ETA: you heard me!

THATS WHAT SHE SAID!

 

[Jaysus]

P.S. it was nice of the rain to wash away all of the pre-treating that PennDOT put on the roads yesterday.

 

[3C's]

P.S. it was nice of the rain to wash away all of the pre-treating that PennDOT put on the roads yesterday.

What a wasted effort. They should have known better. Was painfully obvious this would start as rain.

 

[3C's]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpg

ETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

 

[Swing 51]

6:15 a.m. Update: As we indicated last night, it’s going to be some time until we start to see a change over from rain to snow here in the D.C. area. Currently as steady rain falls, temperatures are still near or above 40 in most spots, even as far north and west as Hagerstown and Winchester (see radar, temps and more on our Weather Wall). Short-term modeling shown below suggests that we may not see a change-over to snow (or a rain/snow mix) begin locally until around or after 10 a.m., and even then it may take until around or after noon for D.C./I-95 and points to east to mix with or change to snow. Some areas from D.C./I-95 and east may stay mainly or all rain through the storm.

Meanwhile, even after areas change over to snow, temperatures look to still be in the upper 30s inside the Beltway with mid-30s further north and west, as shown in the forecast for 1 p.m. below. That is why we expect the best chance for road accumulation, and a more disruptive impact late this morning and during the afternoon, to be focused on the colder spots north and west of the Beltway, and perhaps even north and west of Howard, Montgomery, Fairfax and Prince William counties. But to be safe, anyone from D.C./I-95 toward points north and west should assume roads could become slick, even if only briefly, at some point during the afternoon.

 

[Tom Servo]

Governor Corbett gave non-essential employees under him the day off in Harrisburg area due to the weather. It's not like they were going to be productive today anyways.

 

[Tom Servo]

P.S. it was nice of the rain to wash away all of the pre-treating that PennDOT put on the roads yesterday.

What a wasted effort. They should have known better. Was painfully obvious this would start as rain.

That's PennDOT for you.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpgETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

Right now the winter storm warning for the Lancaster, PA area specifically says that travel this afternoon will become "extremely difficult" and that "they don't advise travel today."

 

[Tom Servo]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpgETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

Right now the winter storm warning for the Lancaster, PA area specifically says that travel this afternoon will become "extremely difficult" and that "they don't advise travel today."

T&P GB.

 

[3C's]

P.S. it was nice of the rain to wash away all of the pre-treating that PennDOT put on the roads yesterday.

What a wasted effort. They should have known better. Was painfully obvious this would start as rain.

That's PennDOT for you.

Saw a FB post complaining that VDOT didn't do the same (pre-treat even with rain coming).

 

[3C's]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpgETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

Right now the winter storm warning for the Lancaster, PA area specifically says that travel this afternoon will become "extremely difficult" and that "they don't advise travel today."

It will probably be messy. Hopefully it won't be icy since there's not much you can do about that. While a pain, a slushy mess is doable though. Safe travels!

The changeover to snow was a bit quick on the western side of VA considering relatives are already posting pics of snow.

 

[JetMaxx]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpgETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

Right now the winter storm warning for the Lancaster, PA area specifically says that travel this afternoon will become "extremely difficult" and that "they don't advise travel today."

I am not far from Lancaster and it's all snow here already. Be safe

 

[Ned]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpgETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

Right now the winter storm warning for the Lancaster, PA area specifically says that travel this afternoon will become "extremely difficult" and that "they don't advise travel today."

Ugh. My 88yr old grandfather is supposed to be coming down today.

 

[GroveDiesel]

We'll probably just push back our departure to tomorrow morning at like 4am. I have no problems driving in snow or slush, but I am slightly worried that there may be a layer of ice down. That, and I don't really trust all the other morons that will be on the road. Most people can't drive worth crap. I'd rather not be driving for 7 hours with white knuckles trying to avoid all the dumb people on the road.

 

[Mr. Ected]

9:30 changeover to snow here in Leesburg (Loudoun CO, VA - 45 min west of DC)

 

[Tom Servo]

9:30 changeover to snow here in Leesburg (Loudoun CO, VA - 45 min west of DC)

I used to live there...loved it...except when it snows a lot.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Philly to Pittsburgh Tuesday and back on Saturday. Hopefully I miss this crap. Driving with an insane woman and 4 month old.

Philly to Canton, OH on Wed and back on Sunday. Looks like I'm screwed.

If you can get an early start on Wed. you might beat it. Otherwise, yes it could be messy. Roads probably won't be too bad (sort of sloppy) though since it's so warm today and tomorrow. I would think precip on the roads will melt.

Hopefully this holds true for you Grove. http://i.imgur.com/o7c5jJ1.jpgETA: even the basket full of cool tools.

Right now the winter storm warning for the Lancaster, PA area specifically says that travel this afternoon will become "extremely difficult" and that "they don't advise travel today."

It will probably be messy. Hopefully it won't be icy since there's not much you can do about that. While a pain, a slushy mess is doable though. Safe travels!

The changeover to snow was a bit quick on the western side of VA considering relatives are already posting pics of snow.

I'm off I-81 just south of Strasburg. Changed over to all snow here about 7 a.m. There's probably an inch or two on the ground and the roads have just started getting covered.

 

[Koya]

Slushy rain and sleet here on the north shore. Nothing worse than hard driving 37 degree rain.