Snowmageddon 2022 (3 Viewers)

[El Floppo]

Euro came back with a bomb for next weekend!

You are such a tease.

Just reading the models. Both the GFS and the Euro are liking the setup. Euro has a monster Nor'easter sliding up the coast. Looks like DC to Philly would be the bullseye. But of course, this is just a model, and we are 10 days out, so take that with a grain of salt.

sea salt?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro came back with a bomb for next weekend!

You are such a tease.

Just reading the models. Both the GFS and the Euro are liking the setup. Euro has a monster Nor'easter sliding up the coast. Looks like DC to Philly would be the bullseye. But of course, this is just a model, and we are 10 days out, so take that with a grain of salt.

sea salt?

Pink Hawai'ian Salt.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

Wait. What? That can happen?

 

[Mr. Ected]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

Wait. What? That can happen?

Not sure what they were smokin', but here is the announcement.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

Wait. What? That can happen?

Not sure what they were smokin', but here is the announcement.

That's insane! Even as a kid, I'm not sure I could have even dreamed up that scenario as ever happening. If you miss school for the flu, can you petition to not take mid terms because you didn't have sufficient time?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

Wait. What? That can happen?

Not sure what they were smokin', but here is the announcement.

That's insane! Even as a kid, I'm not sure I could have even dreamed up that scenario as ever happening. If you miss school for the flu, can you petition to not take mid terms because you didn't have sufficient time?

Also, I'm not really yelling/asking you. I just read it and it seems like I was kind of going at you for it. Obviously, that's not the case, but I wanted to clarify.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

Wait. What? That can happen?

Not sure what they were smokin', but here is the announcement.

That's insane! Even as a kid, I'm not sure I could have even dreamed up that scenario as ever happening. If you miss school for the flu, can you petition to not take mid terms because you didn't have sufficient time?

Dunno, we took a week off in Dec. to go to WDW, they didn't offer that to us!

 

[Mr. Ected]

Here is a big ol' pile of BS from my kids school system...

Due to the inclement weather resulting in lost instructional time, Loudoun County Public Schools has cancelled the mid-term exams for middle and high school students scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th, through Friday, January 23rd. These will be full instructional days.

Monday, January 26th, will remain a student holiday and a teacher planning/records day. The first day of second semester, Tuesday, January 27th, will be an “A” day

Now, the kids have missed 3 days off this year due to inclement weather. 3 DAYS! Mid-term is really mid-year, since the term is ending next week.

Can you imagine being in HS and hearing this!

Wait. What? That can happen?

Not sure what they were smokin', but here is the announcement.

That's insane! Even as a kid, I'm not sure I could have even dreamed up that scenario as ever happening. If you miss school for the flu, can you petition to not take mid terms because you didn't have sufficient time?

Also, I'm not really yelling/asking you. I just read it and it seems like I was kind of going at you for it. Obviously, that's not the case, but I wanted to clarify.

I know, I'm as shocked as you are. If we had had a week or two, then I might think about thinking about it, but 3 full days and a couple of delays is obnoxious!

Those most happy about this are the teachers, not having to administer and not having to grade the tests! Pure Bliss!!!

 

[Gamma1210]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Euro came back with a bomb for next weekend!

You are such a tease.

Just reading the models. Both the GFS and the Euro are liking the setup. Euro has a monster Nor'easter sliding up the coast. Looks like DC to Philly would be the bullseye. But of course, this is just a model, and we are 10 days out, so take that with a grain of salt.

sea salt?

A 4' block of salt.

 

[El Floppo]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

You're talking 11 days out. So take this for what it is: a very, very good educated guess.

I think on the 25th, you'll be fine. Looks more like a 24th event, right now.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

A made a soccer joke above at you, and you didn't even touch it.

 

[El Floppo]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

A made a soccer joke above at you, and you didn't even touch it.

I don't joke about such things.

and I completely missed it. are you sure this happened?

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

A made a soccer joke above at you, and you didn't even touch it.

I don't joke about such things.

and I completely missed it. are you sure this happened?

That's a lot of Flops! http://mashable.com/2015/01/06/weather-service-supercomputers-petaflops/

I am looking forward to using the newer models at work, as this article is dead on with not much reliability beyond 7-10 days. HRRR also was dead on last week with a weak snow band moving through western Ohio.

In this thread, I get to tell you to stop complaining about flops. Take that, soccerboy!

The article talked about flops. I feel like this diminishes an already dumb joke.

 

[El Floppo]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

A made a soccer joke above at you, and you didn't even touch it.

I don't joke about such things.

and I completely missed it. are you sure this happened?

That's a lot of Flops! http://mashable.com/2015/01/06/weather-service-supercomputers-petaflops/

I am looking forward to using the newer models at work, as this article is dead on with not much reliability beyond 7-10 days. HRRR also was dead on last week with a weak snow band moving through western Ohio.

In this thread, I get to tell you to stop complaining about flops. Take that, soccerboy!

The article talked about flops. I feel like this diminishes an already dumb joke.

I've been trying to figure out for the last 5 minutes how to answer this. I've got nothing.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

A made a soccer joke above at you, and you didn't even touch it.

I don't joke about such things.

and I completely missed it. are you sure this happened?

That's a lot of Flops! http://mashable.com/2015/01/06/weather-service-supercomputers-petaflops/

I am looking forward to using the newer models at work, as this article is dead on with not much reliability beyond 7-10 days. HRRR also was dead on last week with a weak snow band moving through western Ohio.

In this thread, I get to tell you to stop complaining about flops. Take that, soccerboy!

The article talked about flops. I feel like this diminishes an already dumb joke.

I've been trying to figure out for the last 5 minutes how to answer this. I've got nothing.

Yup. All you had to do was acknowledge it the other day. Instead, it's become this uncomfortable thing for both of us.

 

[El Floppo]

I'm planning on flying back to EWR on the 25th. Am I screwed?

of course- you're going to Newark.

A made a soccer joke above at you, and you didn't even touch it.

I don't joke about such things.

and I completely missed it. are you sure this happened?

That's a lot of Flops! http://mashable.com/2015/01/06/weather-service-supercomputers-petaflops/

I am looking forward to using the newer models at work, as this article is dead on with not much reliability beyond 7-10 days. HRRR also was dead on last week with a weak snow band moving through western Ohio.

In this thread, I get to tell you to stop complaining about flops. Take that, soccerboy!

The article talked about flops. I feel like this diminishes an already dumb joke.

I've been trying to figure out for the last 5 minutes how to answer this. I've got nothing.

Yup. All you had to do was acknowledge it the other day. Instead, it's become this uncomfortable thing for both of us.

it's like there's no going back. :(

 

[TheIronSheik]

it's like there's no going back. :(

Let's just never speak of this again. Maybe in time, we'll be able to forget this ever happened.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So, anyway, mark your calendars for January 24th. I'm really liking this setup. Not a definite, by any means, but this may be the strongest storm signal we've seen in a couple of years.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So, anyway, mark your calendars for January 24th. I'm really liking this setup. Not a definite, by any means, but this may be the strongest storm signal we've seen in a couple of years.

If anyone (and I doubt it) is watching models, or follow anyone who watches models, you may be hearing how the models for the 24th storm signal are now showing the energy out to sea. The important thing here is that the setup is still very favorable. Models will shift, especially this far out. The setup is still something that is worth watching. Looks like Wednesday could bring some snow our way, but as far as our best chance of the past winter, I think Saturday is still it.

 

[El Floppo]

:(

 

[NajehHejan]

The 24th is a Saturday. No good. Who wants fun plans ruined?

 

[3C's]

The 24th is a Saturday. No good. Who wants fun plans ruined?

Rather have snow on a weekend than when I have to drive potentially 100 or more miles for work. Height of the ice "storm" the other day one of my coworkers had to drive across the state. He's crazy and from the upper midwest though so he's used to it.

 

[Mr. Ected]

If anyone (and I doubt it) is watching models....

Are you new here? We watch models.

 

[Tom Servo]

So this storm modeled for the 24th...are we talking typical noreaster or like Blizzard of '78?

 

[TheIronSheik]

So this storm modeled for the 24th...are we talking typical noreaster or like Blizzard of '78?

Well, at this moment, we're talking out to sea. But the potential is there for a monster of a storm. In order for the NE to have a huge blizzard, they need blocking up in Greenland, abouts. This slows down the system moving across the NE. Really, we haven't had a blocking pattern for the past 2 winters and this one. You may be thinking, "But a lot of places on the East Coast had record snowfall last year?" And that's correct. But it was more quantity, not quality. Meaning, we had a lot of small to mid size storms come through, but no real huge storms.

Without getting into crazy technical talk, the models are hinting at a possible pattern change that includes blocking for the East Coast. Around the 24th, energy arrives and the setup looks good for a possible nor'easter type storm. A possible storm. If things were to all come together perfect, it would have the chance of a very big storm. Of course, unless you're the A Team, how often does a plan come together pefectly? At 9 days out, the key here is that it's on a couple of the model's radar. If the models are still showing this on Tuesday's runs, then we can start talking possible size of the storm.

There's a small to mid size system coming through Wednesday that could be nice. More importantly, it has the chance to turn into a 50/50 low, named for its position longitudinally and latitudinaly. A 5o/50 low is truly ideal for creating huge snow storms in the NE.

 

[Parrothead]

a white MLK day would be ironic weather

 

[TheIronSheik]

a white MLK day would be ironic weather

Not happening for us, though.

 

[NajehHejan]

I'm supposed to drive from Philly to AC mid-afternoon on Sat 24th. Overnight with the wife and the kids at a sitter. I must cancel my hotel room within 48 hours.

Shiek, I will be counting on you to correctly read the models and let me know the scoop by Thursday morning.....

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm supposed to drive from Philly to AC mid-afternoon on Sat 24th. Overnight with the wife and the kids at a sitter. I must cancel my hotel room within 48 hours.

Shiek, I will be counting on you to correctly read the models and let me know the scoop by Thursday morning.....

By Thursday, we will definitely know.

 

[James Daulton]

I'm supposed to drive from Philly to AC mid-afternoon on Sat 24th. Overnight with the wife and the kids at a sitter. I must cancel my hotel room within 48 hours.

Shiek, I will be counting on you to correctly read the models and let me know the scoop by Thursday morning.....

By Thursday, we will definitely know.

The "models" will change their minds 5 times by then.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm supposed to drive from Philly to AC mid-afternoon on Sat 24th. Overnight with the wife and the kids at a sitter. I must cancel my hotel room within 48 hours.

Shiek, I will be counting on you to correctly read the models and let me know the scoop by Thursday morning.....

By Thursday, we will definitely know.

The "models" will change their minds 5 times by then.

Agreed. But while the models are changing, the current observations show that a pattern change is happening. I think models are having trouble with this and how exactly it's changing. The pattern is setting up for perfect conditions for east coast snow. Even if the 24th ends up a miss, the pattern looks favorable into February.

 

[E-Z Glider]

c'mon Sheik... bring us some snow... tired of skiing on the fake stuff

 

[TheIronSheik]

c'mon Sheik... bring us some snow... tired of skiing on the fake stuff

I'll work on it this weekend.

 

[El Floppo]

make it snow

going to the strip club gamechanger

 

[Tom Servo]

I'll take temps in the 40s, please.

 

[Parrothead]

SE PA pretty much shutdown by freezing rain this morning.. 60 car pileup on Schuylkill Expressway.. Turnpike closed.. bridges closed..

what a mess

 

[TheIronSheik]

SE PA pretty much shutdown by freezing rain this morning.. 60 car pileup on Schuylkill Expressway.. Turnpike closed.. bridges closed..

what a mess

What's sad is that every outlet I follow mentioned ice. They didn't think it would be as bad as it was, but they all warned to be careful driving early because of possible ice. Yet, so many people complained that there was no warning. Some people need their hands held through life.

 

[humpback]

Insane.

 

[NajehHejan]

Three inches expected Wed in the Philly area.

Sheik - any update on this potential monster storm for Sat the 24th?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Small clipper system for tomorrow. I'm expecting about 2 to 4 inches in my area, leaning closer to the low side of that. But this storm will set the stage for the weekend behemoth of a storm. The models are going crazy over this storm! And I'm actually a little giddy, myself. This could be the big one I've been waiting for.

Models have this storm a little further east than needed for a big storm, but the trend by all models has been to the west. The Euro, which is in its wheelhouse for this range and type of storm, has this thing in a very big way. All trending west, including almost all of its ensemble members. What's that mean? Well, we have a huge storm showing up on all models. And while they are a little too far east at the moment, every one of them has been trending slightly west with each run. This thing is setting up to be textbook.

OK. So it's a definite then, right? Not exactly. At this time range, it's safe to say that a storm will happen. And it will probably be huge. But at this far out, track can change. There's still a chance this thing goes out to sea and we get a cloudy day. But those chances aren't as great as the snow lover's choice scenario.

Why are we seeing a storm like this? The pattern change I talked about earlier. We are entering an extremely favorable pattern for huge east coast storms. We haven't seen this pattern in over 3 years. With this pattern, not only do we have this storm, but another for early-mid next week. And I still like the chances around February 2nd, which is notable for 2 reasons: 1) Statistically, it is Philly's snowiest day and 2) it's my birthday. Long range forecasts have been showing this pattern developing for a while, and we are finally entering it. Looked like we could see this pattern through the end of February, but now models are differing on how long it lasts.

So a favorable pattern guarantees huge snowstorms? Not really. It's very hard to have a "Blizzard of 'XX" without this pattern, but this pattern doesn't guarantee anything. Just ups our chances of one (or more) happening.

 

[Jaysus]

Local weather guys all but blew off a weekend storm this morning....

 

[TheIronSheik]

Local weather guys all but blew off a weekend storm this morning....

They're idiots.

 

[TheIronSheik]

With each model run, I get a little more giddier.

Also, as a side note, new model runs for the clipper tomorrow is showing that it has the potential to end as freezing rain. So after midnight, we gonna let it all hang out... err, it could start icing up just in time for the Thursday AM commute. After what happened Sunday, I implore everyone to check road conditions before venturing out Thursday morning.

 

[John Bender]

With each model run, I get a little more giddier.

Also, as a side note, new model runs for the clipper tomorrow is showing that it has the potential to end as freezing rain. So after midnight, we gonna let it all hang out... err, it could start icing up just in time for the Thursday AM commute. After what happened Sunday, I implore everyone to check road conditions before venturing out Thursday morning.

Bill henley and Hurricane Schwartz are calling for an inch or two.

:(

 

[DCThunder]

Hey Sheik, any long range forecasts for Saturday, Feb. 7th in the DC metro area? My wife needs to fly out that day to Asia on an important business trip and I'm curious if we will need to sweat out a potential weather problem with flights.

 

[PIK95]

Local weather guys all but blew off a weekend storm this morning....

They're idiots.

Where are you anyway? I forgot.

 

[TheIronSheik]

With each model run, I get a little more giddier.

Also, as a side note, new model runs for the clipper tomorrow is showing that it has the potential to end as freezing rain. So after midnight, we gonna let it all hang out... err, it could start icing up just in time for the Thursday AM commute. After what happened Sunday, I implore everyone to check road conditions before venturing out Thursday morning.

Bill henley and Hurricane Schwartz are calling for an inch or two.

:(

For the clipper, that's about right. But if it ends as freezing rain, it could shut down the roads again like Sunday.

The Saturday storm is the one that's making me excited. It has the potential to be a monster. I also had talked about a possible storm for the 27th-29th time frame, and the models are starting to really like that one, too.