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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

From Virginia Weather Network...

FIRST GUESS: SNOW ACCUMULATION (FRIDAY - SATURDAY)

This first guess accumulation map is based off of a blend of the recent and consistent ensembles, and the 0Z European from last night and its ensembles. While the European has had a trend of pushing the highest totals South and East, today's run may have been "too bullish" -- however, most operational models have continued to trend toward the ensemble models to a "colder" storm for the Richmond Metro area.

Snow will begin late Thursday Night across far Southwestern Virginia, and into Southern and Central Virginia between daybreak and mid-morning Friday, with snow developing elsewhere by late morning into early afternoon. The snow will be heavy at times, especially Richmond and points North and West. The precipitation will end West/Southwest to East/Northeast Saturday afternoon.

The big question still remains on the exact position of the developing coastal low and if it stays near the coast or a bit off the coast. With high pressure east of the Great Lakes and into Eastern Canada, this will help to provide Cold Air Damming, funneling in colder air, along with developing low pressure with warmer than normal water temperatures in the Atlantic. With the storm deepening, and all the ingredients combined, this should keep the storm on the colder side from Metro Richmond and points North and West.

There is still some concern that milder air from the Atlantic will get pushed inland later Friday into Friday Night, before going back over to snow, as the Low moves to the North, providing wrap-around moisture. The east side of Richmond, Tri-Cities, and Southern Virginia could mix quite a bit with sleet. Rain could change to snow and sleet in Hampton Roads, before going back to a prolonged period of rain, then ending as snow. The "mainly rain" area at this time appears to be east of a Suffolk - Hampton - Eastern Shore line, including Norfolk and Virginia Beach.

There is some concern with trends on the European model that the heaviest snow totals could shift a bit more South and East. This would mean a colder storm for most everyone, and Hampton Roads could get in on at least light to moderate snow accumulations.

WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING will be a major concern. Winds along the coastline could gust anywhere from 25 to 40 MPH or higher.

From I-95 and points East, this will likely be a very wet snow that accumulates. Therefore, power outages are possible.

We will have another update on the snow accumulation map Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. Right now, this is a preliminary guess with a wide range, but will tighten the range as we get closer to the event.
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ETA:

Also, how to read the map: A/B borderline would be 4", B/C borderline would be 8" D/C borderline would be 14". SOUTH and EAST of the *YELLOW LINE* is where there will be sleet and rain mixing issues. It's just a wide range right now since it's a guess (or preliminary) -- but the guidance data supports this map.
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Hoping that this turns into my favorite kind of storm: enough hype to work from home on Friday, enough bust to not actually impact life on the weekend but not before a first birthday party gets cancelled.

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)

 
John Bender said:
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
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:yes: Winds could be really bad. Jersey shore with possible gusts to 70mph.

http://i.imgur.com/Rw3ZZAI.gif

 
Hat tip to those sharing info in this thread but especially Sheik and The Man :thumbup:

Grocery stores will be wiped out by Thursday :D

 
It looks like it jogged north. Meteorologist in SE New England just choked on thier coffee rolls with the 6am update. Our girl was actually studdering on TV. Good times!

 
What's funny about this thread is the differing perspectives. You have some people in here saying "should I panic now?" wondering if they are going to have to deal with some massive storm and then there I shiek saying "yes things are moving but don't panic" by which he means the snow is a GOOD thing. But sometimes it's hard to tell without context.

I think I'm with the pro snow crowd.

 
I like snow, but the ice in my gutters was a bit much last year. I also hate losing power so there is that. I have a big nasty snowblower and buddies with plows that owe me favors.

I bought a generator 3-4? Years ago that I never had to use and I hope to never have to. I have a fire place and plenty of wood.

The toughest thing to deal with is the WiFi going out. My kids are addicted to you tube. I need to install a permanent internet connection if that's possible. Yay snow!

 
Why is it always initially predicted as a huge event and then becomes less as it gets closer and not the other way around? Ratings?

 
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flapgreen said:
Why is it always initially predicted as a huge event and then becomes less as it gets closer and not the other way around? Ratings?
Click to expand...
Right? It's like everyone is always expecting 12", and then when it turns out to only be 4" there's disappointment, complaining that they were mislead, sometimes even laughter. It's awful.

 
Timing pushed back for the DC/Balt metro until at least noon on Friday. But the snow totals are staggering. 18-24" is a given across the entire area, with potential for a foot more in the areas where the heaviest bands set up. It could snow from midday Friday until Sunday morning.

There are gonna be big problems - wet, heavy snow and seriously high winds. Also, it's a full moon. Coastal damage could be severe.

It's still more than 48 hours away, but the agreement of the models regarding a storm of this magnitude has been striking. The Euro did wobble at its midday run yesterday, but came back in a big way last night. The GFS has been rock solid in calling for the Biblical Storm of Destruction, so when the usually more reliable Euro wobbled, it caused some doubt. But now that the Euro is confirming the same kind of crazy storm totals that the GFS has shown all along, it's getting very hard to doubt.

As long as the Euro doesn't wobble again at midday today, we'll then be within 48 hours and really begin expecting a storm that will be one for the record books.

 
Here's one map showing total precip:

http://i.imgur.com/a1a5a0P.png

So that's 3-4" of precip for all of Maryland/DC. At a fairly conservative 10:1 ratio, that would obviously be 30-40" for a huge swatch of the Mid-Atlantic. Throw in the high winds, and the drifting will be epic.

Still time for this to change, but if it holds on for another cycle of model runs, you're going to start hearing Emergency Management declarations about preparations for the impending storm.

 
Looking like Richmond is right on the line from getting 4" or 40" at the time.

I'm predicting 8 or so here.

 
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As pointed out, models came back last night with the more northward storm. The Euro from yesterday was obviously incorrect, as even it corrected itself overnight. This thing is still on pace to rival the Blizzard of '96. Timing has been pushed back, but again, we are still a ways out. My area looks like it'll see about 1 to 3 feet of snow. Again, this is a long duration event and should last about 24 hours. I would advise going out and shoveling multiple times during the storm.

This storm is going to be like a hurricane with snow. Not only will we see widespread blizzard conditions, there will be very good chances of thundersnow on Saturday. (If you've never heard thundersnow, it sounds like a very large bomb exploded somewhere in your neighbors yard.) Remember that in order to have thunder, there has to be lightning, and lightning in snow is as deadly as it is during the rain. So if you are outside and you hear thunder, take cover immediately!

Looks like, as of now, the timing is for Friday afternoon/evening. When this starts, it'll start heavy. I'm working from home that day because you don't want to be the person who gets stuck in traffic in PM rush hour. Also, remember that just because you plan on leaving a little early doesn't mean you won't hit traffic. A lot of people will be leaving early so expect traffic all afternoon.

 
I'll believe it when I see it. By the time Friday comes they'll be saying it's all rain or will just miss us.

(I did fire up my new snow blower last night just in case)

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
I'll believe it when I see it. By the time Friday comes they'll be saying it's all rain or will just miss us.

(I did fire up my new snow blower last night just in case)
Click to expand...
There's about a 1% chance this thing doesn't hit. This is not a "thread the needle" type storm like we've had the past couple years. This one is pretty much set in stone. It may jog a little off the current path, but this thing is going to be legendary.

 
TheIronSheik said:
As pointed out, models came back last night with the more northward storm. The Euro from yesterday was obviously incorrect, as even it corrected itself overnight. This thing is still on pace to rival the Blizzard of '96. Timing has been pushed back, but again, we are still a ways out. My area looks like it'll see about 1 to 3 feet of snow. Again, this is a long duration event and should last about 24 hours. I would advise going out and shoveling multiple times during the storm.

This storm is going to be like a hurricane with snow. Not only will we see widespread blizzard conditions, there will be very good chances of thundersnow on Saturday. (If you've never heard thundersnow, it sounds like a very large bomb exploded somewhere in your neighbors yard.) Remember that in order to have thunder, there has to be lightning, and lightning in snow is as deadly as it is during the rain. So if you are outside and you hear thunder, take cover immediately!

Looks like, as of now, the timing is for Friday afternoon/evening. When this starts, it'll start heavy. I'm working from home that day because you don't want to be the person who gets stuck in traffic in PM rush hour. Also, remember that just because you plan on leaving a little early doesn't mean you won't hit traffic. A lot of people will be leaving early so expect traffic all afternoon.
Click to expand...
So I will be flying into philly and hopefully landing around 8pm on Friday night. Should I cancel my trip? I have no interest getting stuck in St.Louis or some other god forsaken flyover state.

 
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
TheIronSheik said:
As pointed out, models came back last night with the more northward storm. The Euro from yesterday was obviously incorrect, as even it corrected itself overnight. This thing is still on pace to rival the Blizzard of '96. Timing has been pushed back, but again, we are still a ways out. My area looks like it'll see about 1 to 3 feet of snow. Again, this is a long duration event and should last about 24 hours. I would advise going out and shoveling multiple times during the storm.

This storm is going to be like a hurricane with snow. Not only will we see widespread blizzard conditions, there will be very good chances of thundersnow on Saturday. (If you've never heard thundersnow, it sounds like a very large bomb exploded somewhere in your neighbors yard.) Remember that in order to have thunder, there has to be lightning, and lightning in snow is as deadly as it is during the rain. So if you are outside and you hear thunder, take cover immediately!

Looks like, as of now, the timing is for Friday afternoon/evening. When this starts, it'll start heavy. I'm working from home that day because you don't want to be the person who gets stuck in traffic in PM rush hour. Also, remember that just because you plan on leaving a little early doesn't mean you won't hit traffic. A lot of people will be leaving early so expect traffic all afternoon.
Click to expand...
So I will be flying into philly and hopefully landing around 8pm on Friday night. Should I cancel my trip? I have no interest getting stuck in St.Louis or some other god forsaken flyover state.
Click to expand...
8 pm on Friday night will be cutting it close.

 
TheIronSheik said:
As pointed out, models came back last night with the more northward storm. The Euro from yesterday was obviously incorrect, as even it corrected itself overnight. This thing is still on pace to rival the Blizzard of '96. Timing has been pushed back, but again, we are still a ways out. My area looks like it'll see about 1 to 3 feet of snow. Again, this is a long duration event and should last about 24 hours. I would advise going out and shoveling multiple times during the storm.

This storm is going to be like a hurricane with snow. Not only will we see widespread blizzard conditions, there will be very good chances of thundersnow on Saturday. (If you've never heard thundersnow, it sounds like a very large bomb exploded somewhere in your neighbors yard.) Remember that in order to have thunder, there has to be lightning, and lightning in snow is as deadly as it is during the rain. So if you are outside and you hear thunder, take cover immediately!

Looks like, as of now, the timing is for Friday afternoon/evening. When this starts, it'll start heavy. I'm working from home that day because you don't want to be the person who gets stuck in traffic in PM rush hour. Also, remember that just because you plan on leaving a little early doesn't mean you won't hit traffic. A lot of people will be leaving early so expect traffic all afternoon.
Click to expand...
Philly timing, right?

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
TheIronSheik said:
As pointed out, models came back last night with the more northward storm. The Euro from yesterday was obviously incorrect, as even it corrected itself overnight. This thing is still on pace to rival the Blizzard of '96. Timing has been pushed back, but again, we are still a ways out. My area looks like it'll see about 1 to 3 feet of snow. Again, this is a long duration event and should last about 24 hours. I would advise going out and shoveling multiple times during the storm.

This storm is going to be like a hurricane with snow. Not only will we see widespread blizzard conditions, there will be very good chances of thundersnow on Saturday. (If you've never heard thundersnow, it sounds like a very large bomb exploded somewhere in your neighbors yard.) Remember that in order to have thunder, there has to be lightning, and lightning in snow is as deadly as it is during the rain. So if you are outside and you hear thunder, take cover immediately!

Looks like, as of now, the timing is for Friday afternoon/evening. When this starts, it'll start heavy. I'm working from home that day because you don't want to be the person who gets stuck in traffic in PM rush hour. Also, remember that just because you plan on leaving a little early doesn't mean you won't hit traffic. A lot of people will be leaving early so expect traffic all afternoon.
Click to expand...
Philly timing, right?
Click to expand...
Correct.

 
Sheik, any insight on Southern MD? Weather Underground has a us getting around 18" from Friday-Saturday. Weather.com has us getting 4"-8". Accuweather has around a foot. Weather.com just being conservative?

 
MattFancy said:
Sheik, any insight on Southern MD? Weather Underground has a us getting around 18" from Friday-Saturday. Weather.com has us getting 4"-8". Accuweather has around a foot. Weather.com just being conservative?
Click to expand...
I think you're going to see a decent amount of snow. Probably close to a foot. But don't hold me to that just yet.

 
TheIronSheik said:
MattFancy said:
Sheik, any insight on Southern MD? Weather Underground has a us getting around 18" from Friday-Saturday. Weather.com has us getting 4"-8". Accuweather has around a foot. Weather.com just being conservative?
Click to expand...
I think you're going to see a decent amount of snow. Probably close to a foot. But don't hold me to that just yet.
Click to expand...
Seems it's tough to predict down this way based on how much of a Northern or Southern track this thing takes

 
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