So what happened to Larry Fitzgerald this year? (1 Viewer)

[shader]

I was a Fitz owner last year. After his unbelievable playoff run...I thought he was about to absolutely take off and become the biggest stud this league has ever seen at WR.

This year, he's had great stats, don't get me wrong.

But it seems like his TD's are all redzone TD's, and all his catches are of the 10-15 yard variety.

I can't recall alot of deep balls and bigtime pass plays.

If Fitz combined the unbelievable production that he gets in the redzone with more deep balls, he might have had a career year.

So is the problem Warner? Has he lost some arm strength?

And Fitz for 2010..is he a buy-low right now? Or is this what he is?

 

[EZD222]

Madden cover. See Polamalu

 

[moderated]

warners had trouble with the deep ball this year, maybe hip related.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Madden cover. See Polamalu

Buh bye LBJ.

 

[FavreCo]

You think he tailed off this year, wait until Warner is gone.

 

[dgreen]

Are defenses playing him a little differently this year? The Cardinals games I've seen, the deep jump balls he gets are usually in double coverage. In the past, they seemed to be jump balls in single coverage and he only had to beat on defender for the ball. I wouldn't be surprised if most teams are assigning a safety to over coverage on pretty much every play this year.

 

[Gordon09]

I think your expectations were just a little too high. He's not doing much worse than he did last year, and that's with Warner missing some time and the running game improving.

He's still WR6 in PPR, with only 4 points separating him and WR3. He's also been pretty consistent. He's only really had 2 clunkers all year and he's scored at least 1 TD in 2/3 of his games.

 

[jackdubl]

There has been a lot of football analysis on how defenses are playing Fitz different this year to stop the deep pass. Still produced his typical stat line, so who cares.

 

[dgreen]

I think your expectations were just a little too high. He's not doing much worse than he did last year, and that's with Warner missing some time and the running game improving.He's still WR6 in PPR, with only 4 points separating him and WR3. He's also been pretty consistent. He's only really had 2 clunkers all year and he's scored at least 1 TD in 2/3 of his games.

Yes, he's still producing fantasy numbers. But, the decline in yds/rec and total yards overall is surprising. His longest reception this season is only 34 yards. 151 WRs have had a reception longer than that this year. Every other player in the top 20 in receiving yards has a reception of 50+ yards.

 

[JJP]

Andre Johnson was the best WR going into this season and he's the best WR now. Fitzgerald is one of the best, but he got over-hyped due to his post season last year.

 

[TommyGilmore]

Uh.....maybe the fact that Boldin has been healthy all year?

 

[ClownDogs]

94-1075-12 is elite any day of the week in my book.

Same catches as AJ, 375 less yds and 3 more td's. I think AJ wouldn't have had as high as numbers this year if Daniels would have been there all year.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Still producing at a high level. Warner taking the approach more of taking what they give him [more Hightower earlier in the year] & now on Fitz/Boldin to run after the catch.

 

[JJP]

94-1075-12 is elite any day of the week in my book.Same catches as AJ, 375 less yds and 3 more td's. I think AJ wouldn't have had as high as numbers this year if Daniels would have been there all year.

Johnson 161 targets 1,504 yards 9.3 yds/targetFitzgerald 146 targets 1,075 yards 7.4 yds/targetThese numbers aren't close.

 

[azgroover]

Uh.....maybe the fact that Boldin has been healthy all year?

Are you kidding? I can't detect any sarcasm. Q, while he's gutted it out for the most part, he has been as gimpy as an 80 year old man out there this year. He's just now starting to get healthy.

 

[Chaka]

Buy low

 

[TommyGilmore]

Uh.....maybe the fact that Boldin has been healthy all year?

Are you kidding? I can't detect any sarcasm. Q, while he's gutted it out for the most part, he has been as gimpy as an 80 year old man out there this year. He's just now starting to get healthy.

Do you think Boldin was healthier last year, overall?

 

[gonzobill5]

Arizona is slowly discovering a little thing called the running game.

 

[BigA]

Warner is TERRIBLE. He cuts Fitz's production just like Lions' QB's limit Calvin. It is sad but true.

Warner CANNOT Stretch the field anymore, pitty.

 

[FavreCo]

The only QB that can be compared to what Calvin Johnson has is JaBustus Russell. Warner is an upgrade of infinate proportions.

 

[TommyGilmore]

Warner is TERRIBLE. He cuts Fitz's production just like Lions' QB's limit Calvin. It is sad but true.Warner CANNOT Stretch the field anymore, pitty.

Warner's production is off by about 5%. Lighten up, Francis.

 

[ClownDogs]

94-1075-12 is elite any day of the week in my book.Same catches as AJ, 375 less yds and 3 more td's. I think AJ wouldn't have had as high as numbers this year if Daniels would have been there all year.

Johnson 161 targets 1,504 yards 9.3 yds/targetFitzgerald 146 targets 1,075 yards 7.4 yds/targetThese numbers aren't close.

And i care about yds/target because......? Johnson: 95 catches 1504yds 9tdsFitz: 94 catches 1075yds 12tds.Those numbers are pretty close overall.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Uh.....maybe the fact that Boldin has been healthy all year?

Are you kidding? I can't detect any sarcasm. Q, while he's gutted it out for the most part, he has been as gimpy as an 80 year old man out there this year. He's just now starting to get healthy.

Do you think Boldin was healthier last year, overall?

You probably should have just reworded your original statement [which wasn't true]

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Warner is TERRIBLE. He cuts Fitz's production just like Lions' QB's limit Calvin. It is sad but true.Warner CANNOT Stretch the field anymore, pitty.

What are you rambling on about?? Comparing Warner to Culpepper and Co. Warner's taken what the defense has allowed all year long. The ball is coming out of Kurt's hand quick, he's not taking big hits, the Cardinals are winning games, running the ball better, and are heading to the playoffs again.

 

[cmv5]

I don't think there was anything seriously wrong with Fitz himself. I think the thing that hurt Fitz's production the most was losing Todd Haley. Fitzgerald has always been a good receiver but as someone who followed his career closely, Fitzgerald improved significantly as a route runner under Haley. Fitzgerald himself said that Haley pushed him to be a better receiver. Also, especially during the playoffs, Haley came up with creative ways to get Fitzgerald the ball. Then you have Warner being hurt to start the season, a more successful run game, Fitzgerald sustaining a knee injury and you see some dropoff. Still, as a Fitzgerald owner, I am happy with the season. He was still one of the most consistent WRs in the game and this was an off year for him.

Warner is TERRIBLE. He cuts Fitz's production just like Lions' QB's limit Calvin. It is sad but true.Warner CANNOT Stretch the field anymore, pitty.

What are you rambling on about?? Comparing Warner to Culpepper and Co. Warner's taken what the defense has allowed all year long. The ball is coming out of Kurt's hand quick, he's not taking big hits, the Cardinals are winning games, running the ball better, and are heading to the playoffs again.

 

[MCguidance]

What the hell is going on in here?

 

[Carolina Hustler]

If indeed someone is "Selling Low", I'm "Buying"....

But I can't see any problem with his production this year. You can't expect the top rated WR to produce #1 production every year. You're looking for a top over all average for the length of time he's on your roster.

Fitz was #2 WR selected in most Dynasty leagues this past off season. And I don't see any problem with that. You'll always have some new names towards the top of the list.

Fitz is fine..

 

[SSOG]

There has been a lot of football analysis on how defenses are playing Fitz different this year to stop the deep pass. Still produced his typical stat line, so who cares.

His typical stat line? Not even close! Here are his ypr figures on a year-by-year basis: 13.4, 13.7, 13.7, 14.1, 14.9... 11.4. ELEVEN POINT FOUR! He's a full TWO YARDS PER RECEPTION below his previous career low. That is a massive, massive, massive difference. The fantasy numbers have still been there because he's got a boatload of receptions and has matched his career high in TDs, but this has hardly been a typical season.Now, as for WHY this season has been so atypical, I personally believe it's Warner. He seems to have lost the threat of the deep ball, and is definitely no longer the QB he was as recently as last season.

Warner is TERRIBLE. He cuts Fitz's production just like Lions' QB's limit Calvin. It is sad but true.

Warner CANNOT Stretch the field anymore, pitty.

Warner's production is off by about 5%. Lighten up, Francis.

His numbers look the same, but he's been getting them in a radically different manner. It seems to me whenever I've caught an Arizona game that he's been getting a lot fewer "air yards".

 

[Freakin'Farmer]

I hear you. Fantasywise in weeks 14-16 (particularily week 14) Fitz didn't put up much to help lead our playoff bound teams fruther into the playoffs. I had Fitz,Wayne and V Jackson as WRs and they all slumped at various times mid to late season.

 

[dgreen]

There has been a lot of football analysis on how defenses are playing Fitz different this year to stop the deep pass. Still produced his typical stat line, so who cares.

His typical stat line? Not even close! Here are his ypr figures on a year-by-year basis: 13.4, 13.7, 13.7, 14.1, 14.9... 11.4. ELEVEN POINT FOUR! He's a full TWO YARDS PER RECEPTION below his previous career low. That is a massive, massive, massive difference. The fantasy numbers have still been there because he's got a boatload of receptions and has matched his career high in TDs, but this has hardly been a typical season.

Now, as for WHY this season has been so atypical, I personally believe it's Warner. He seems to have lost the threat of the deep ball, and is definitely no longer the QB he was as recently as last season.

What do you mean by this? Warner's never had the strongest arm. Like I said, Fitz seems to be drawing more double coverage on the deep routes. If they're going to throw the jump ball to him, he's going to have to fight two guys for it.

 

[JJP]

94-1075-12 is elite any day of the week in my book.Same catches as AJ, 375 less yds and 3 more td's. I think AJ wouldn't have had as high as numbers this year if Daniels would have been there all year.

Johnson 161 targets 1,504 yards 9.3 yds/targetFitzgerald 146 targets 1,075 yards 7.4 yds/targetThese numbers aren't close.

And i care about yds/target because......? Johnson: 95 catches 1504yds 9tdsFitz: 94 catches 1075yds 12tds.Those numbers are pretty close overall.

Because yards/target is really the best way to measure a WR's efficiency. Anyone can put up a decent number of catches if they have a ton of targets.BTW, those yardage numbers aren't close in my world. Not even remotely.

 

[fantasizing]

94-1075-12 is elite any day of the week in my book.Same catches as AJ, 375 less yds and 3 more td's. I think AJ wouldn't have had as high as numbers this year if Daniels would have been there all year.

Johnson 161 targets 1,504 yards 9.3 yds/targetFitzgerald 146 targets 1,075 yards 7.4 yds/targetThese numbers aren't close.

And i care about yds/target because......? Johnson: 95 catches 1504yds 9tdsFitz: 94 catches 1075yds 12tds.Those numbers are pretty close overall.

Uhmm.....Johnson has 40% more yards for the same number of catches......there's a BIG difference there....

 

[Tanner9919]

Warner is TERRIBLE. He cuts Fitz's production just like Lions' QB's limit Calvin. It is sad but true.Warner CANNOT Stretch the field anymore, pitty.

doesn't have anything to do with Todd Haley coaching in KC does it? of course it does. this team lost a veru good offensive coordinator, and they are transitioning to a run-first ball club, ala Steelers ( Whisenhunt connection)

 

[Todem]

I don't understand this thread.

STUD.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Didn't a lot of Fitzgerald's big plays in the playoffs last year come in double coverage or with deep help?

The difference between this year and last year's playoff run was that they weren't even TRYING to get him the ball deep this year. They had him running crossing routes all year long and playing the possession receiver role. I know he has great hands, but that doesn't mean you need to limit him to just that role. He is a playmaker and should be used as such.

His longest catch this year was 34 yards. He had a longer catch than that in TEN games last year. TEN. Including every single playoff game.

 

[dgreen]

Didn't a lot of Fitzgerald's big plays in the playoffs last year come in double coverage or with deep help?The difference between this year and last year's playoff run was that they weren't even TRYING to get him the ball deep this year. They had him running crossing routes all year long and playing the possession receiver role. I know he has great hands, but that doesn't mean you need to limit him to just that role. He is a playmaker and should be used as such.His longest catch this year was 34 yards. He had a long catch than that in TEN games last year. TEN. Including every single playoff game.

I haven't seen too many of their games, but I do remember Warner throwing Fitz two deep jump balls against double coverage in the game @ SF. One he almost hauled and the other he got hurt.

 

[shader]

I can't believe some of you.

I'm not implying that he's not any good this year or that he's not still putting up solid numbers.

But all you have to do is watch a few games and you'll see what I'm talking about.

He doesn't get the deep ball thrown to him and his big games aren't there like they were last year.

On the other hand, he's been a beast in the red zone and is almost unguardable down there.

If they can start finding ways to get him the ball deep to go along with this red zone production, he could have a bigtime career year pretty soon.

I guess the point of this thread is that this was the year I think we all expected him to take the leap to the next stratosphere, and it didn't happen.

 

[fantasizing]

I guess the point of this thread is that this was the year I think we all expected him to take the leap to the next stratosphere, and it didn't happen.

That's the moral of the story folks. Alot of people spent a VERY high draft pick to get Fitz and he didn't reward them with a monstrous season. The playoffs last year (real playoffs that is) seemed to have inflated his value considerably.

 

[CaptainHook]

he was literally unstoppable in the playoffs against some very good secondaries. its not crazy to expect them to utilize him in that fashion again.

a season long of 34 yards is completely shocking.

 

[dgreen]

I guess the point of this thread is that this was the year I think we all expected him to take the leap to the next stratosphere, and it didn't happen.

That's the moral of the story folks. Alot of people spent a VERY high draft pick to get Fitz and he didn't reward them with a monstrous season. The playoffs last year (real playoffs that is) seemed to have inflated his value considerably.

He was WR1 in the regular season last year. Yes, perhaps the playoffs made people expect more, but his regular season was enough to justify a preseason WR1 ranking. He was coming off three 1400-yard seasons with double-digit TDs in the previous four seasons. So, that's what people expected. If he had about 200 more yards right now to go with his 12 TDs, he'd be right there with Andre Johnson for WR1. But, that's the problem this year. He doesn't have the yards. His YPR is way down.Fantasy-wise, he has produced because of TDs and simply the volume of receptions. I don't think Fitz owners should be upset about the season he produced. The question isn't about the season that just finished, it's about what lies ahead. Is his decrease in YPR a fluke or a glimpse of things to come? Considering the drop in yardage, where should he be drafted next year?

 

[H8fulHuck]

This topic is quite funny. Didn't expect to see it at all, but here is my :cents:

Franchised Fitz here and satisfied with the production. I'd like to have seen more long receptions/TD also, but 12TDs and over 1k is still well worth WR1 selection.

In the AZ games I've seen Warner has gone to Fitz deep multiple times, but there was at least double coverage every time. AZ has been driving the ball down the field more, mixing the run (should run more IMO). Not as much quick strike TD production.

 

[jurb26]

Ummm, what seems to be the problem here? This is who Fitz is. Actually this is one of his best fantasy seasons because of his 12 TDs (with a game remaining). Sure his yds are down a little bit but the catches are still there and he is tied for his career high in TDs. Fitz isn't going to put up R. Moss type numbers. He isn't that kind of player.

Season	  Team	   	Receiving	  Rushing	  FumblesG 	GS 	Rec 	Yds 	Avg 	Lng 	TD 	Att 	Yds 	Avg 	Lng 	TD 	FUM 	Lost2009 	Arizona Cardinals 	15 	15 	94 	1,075 	11.4 	34T 	12 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	--2008 	Arizona Cardinals 	16 	16 	96 	1,431 	14.9 	78T 	12 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	1 	02007 	Arizona Cardinals 	15 	15 	100 	1,409 	14.1 	48T 	10 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	3 	32006 	Arizona Cardinals 	13 	13 	69 	946 	13.7 	57 	6 	0 	0 	-- 	-- 	0 	-- 	--2005 	Arizona Cardinals 	16 	16 	103 	1,409 	13.7 	47 	10 	8 	41 	5.1 	15 	0 	-- 	--2004 	Arizona Cardinals 	16 	16 	58 	780 	13.4 	48 	8 	8 	14 	1.8 	10 	0 	1 	0TOTAL 	520 	7,050 	13.6 	78 	58 	16 	55 	3.4 	15 	0 	5 	3

 

[SuperJohn96]

Loving the AJ-Fitz comparisons.

I've got ADP, Gore, Fitz and AJ on my (championship) roster and I can only keep three. It will be ADP, Gore, and all season long I was planning on Fitz as my #3 guy, but as the season went on...I don't know. I might go with AJ just based on the QB.

But as far as complaining about Fitz's production, you're bonkers.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Didn't a lot of Fitzgerald's big plays in the playoffs last year come in double coverage or with deep help?The difference between this year and last year's playoff run was that they weren't even TRYING to get him the ball deep this year. They had him running crossing routes all year long and playing the possession receiver role. I know he has great hands, but that doesn't mean you need to limit him to just that role. He is a playmaker and should be used as such.His longest catch this year was 34 yards. He had a longer catch than that in TEN games last year. TEN. Including every single playoff game.

 

[SSOG]

Ummm, what seems to be the problem here? This is who Fitz is. Actually this is one of his best fantasy seasons because of his 12 TDs (with a game remaining). Sure his yds are down a little bit but the catches are still there and he is tied for his career high in TDs. Fitz isn't going to put up R. Moss type numbers. He isn't that kind of player.

Season	  Team	   	Receiving	  Rushing	  FumblesG 	GS 	Rec 	Yds 	Avg 	Lng 	TD 	Att 	Yds 	Avg 	Lng 	TD 	FUM 	Lost2009 	Arizona Cardinals 	15 	15 	94 	1,075 	11.4 	34T 	12 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	--2008 	Arizona Cardinals 	16 	16 	96 	1,431 	14.9 	78T 	12 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	1 	02007 	Arizona Cardinals 	15 	15 	100 	1,409 	14.1 	48T 	10 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	-- 	3 	32006 	Arizona Cardinals 	13 	13 	69 	946 	13.7 	57 	6 	0 	0 	-- 	-- 	0 	-- 	--2005 	Arizona Cardinals 	16 	16 	103 	1,409 	13.7 	47 	10 	8 	41 	5.1 	15 	0 	-- 	--2004 	Arizona Cardinals 	16 	16 	58 	780 	13.4 	48 	8 	8 	14 	1.8 	10 	0 	1 	0TOTAL 	520 	7,050 	13.6 	78 	58 	16 	55 	3.4 	15 	0 	5 	3

This isn't who Fitz is. When a guy performs a previous career low by 15% (as Fitz did this year in ypr), you don't say "this is who he is", because it's not. It's 15% below anything he has ever been before. Fitz is not an 11.5 ypr receiver. I also disagree that Fitz will never put up "Randy Moss numbers", although for that discussion you'd first have to define what, exactly, "Randy Moss numbers" are. All speculation aside, though, it's crazy to call this "one of Fitz's best fantasy seasons". This is Fitzgerald's 4th best fantasy season in the last 5 years. Granted, it's still a really really good fantasy season, and it's not far behind the others in terms of raw points... but again: 4th best season in the last 5 years.

 

[Instinctive]

The "you're crazy" people need to stop assuming this is Fitz owners complaining that he's been oh sooooo terrible.

He's been great.

But that yards per target and yards per reception is a thing to look out for. It is uncharacteristically low, and definitely something o watch out for in the future. Just because he was way better than almost everyone else doesn't mean he didn't have an off year. He definitely has had an off year.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Fitz finished as the #5 WR after 16 weeks in a PPR league and there is a thread for him doing so badly. Haha. :shakeshead:

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Randy Moss finished with 1008/11 last year and everyone considered him a huge bust. Fitz right now has 1075/12 and was drafted every bit as high in 2009 as Moss was in 2008.

That said, Fitz still has a game left so his numbers will obviously be better, and no one is here to claim Fitz has been a bust this year. However, this isn't a case of "this is who Fitz is". Firstly, Fitz isn't a possession receiver destined to run 4 yard crossing routes all day, nor has he been in the past when he had 1400+ yards each of the last two seasons. Secondly, there was a certain expectation that Fitz does have the ability to blow up Randy Moss style, and that record setting playoff run got everyone's appetite really whet for that.

The guy literally was a monster that could not be stopped in last year's postseason, no matter who or how many people covered him. A lot of people thought this was Fitz's transformation from simply a great WR to perhaps one of the three best WRs of all time, or more. I've seen enough examples of postseason success not translating to the next regular season to believe it myself, but I certainly still expected Fitz's regular season numbers to go nowhere but up, and certainly did not expect to see his role diminished to that of a safe underneath target when he had just absolutely dominated like we've never seen before in the postseason with the role of playmaker.

I don't think many people expected him to be a guy that got you a steady 40-70 yards and maybe added a TD to turn in a mediocre fantasy performance many weeks. Fitz had three games of 100+ receiving yards this year (and one of them was 100 exactly). He had that many in the first 4 weeks of last season alone, and 11 total for the year.

I don't think anyone is saying they're really disappointed with what he did, or that he wasn't still a great fantasy WR1, but many people are surprised at the utter lack of playmaking (no catch over 34 yards) from a guy that just last year was probably the premiere playmaker in the league.

If Chris Johnson didn't have a run over 34 yards next year, wouldn't that surprise you even if he ended up with a top five 1300/15 performance at year's end?

 

[Incog]

I'm guessing people were expecting 20 TDs or something? I would be pretty happy with Fitz's numbers. I notice he didn't have a game that really inflated his stats, he's been consistently good week in and week out. If your were disappointed by his stats then I would suggest not drafting a WR in the first round anymore. Going to be hard to find a WR out there that will replicate Moss' numbers.

 

[SSOG]

If Chris Johnson didn't have a run over 34 yards next year, wouldn't that surprise you even if he ended up with a top five 1300/15 performance at year's end?

Very nicely put. Another good example that actually happened was Larry Johnson in 2006. He finished the season with almost IDENTICAL fantasy numbers to 2005 (seriously, almost IDENTICAL- 40 more rushing yards, 70 more receiving yards, 2 fewer TDs, 334 fantasy points vs. 335 fantasy points). With that said, many Larry Johnson owners were concerned about the fact that, while his aggregate stats remained IDENTICAL, his rate stats dropped (his ypc fell from 5.2 to 4.3). Many owners wondered what was up with Larry Johnson, not because they were dissatisfied with what he had just produced, but because they were concerned about what those red flags meant going forward. And, in retrospect, they had every reason to be concerned- Johnson has put up the same number of yards and 10 fewer TDs in the 3 seasons since COMBINED as he did in 2006.Another perfect example is Ricky Williams in 2003. He finished the season as RB9, more than justifying any first round draft pick that was spent on him, but he saw his ypc fall from 4.8 in 2002 to 3.5 in 2003. While his fantasy numbers were very satisfactory, owners were concerned about the dramatic decline in his general effectiveness. And again, it was for good reason- that offseason, Ricky wound up "retiring" (citing overuse as one of the reasons), and after that his career was a giant mess until he finally rose from the ashes this season.I'm not saying that I expect Fitzgerald to fall off the cliff next year or anything (quite the contrary, I truly believe that his decline is almost entirely predicated on external factors), I'm just pointing out that it's very possible to ask what's wrong with a player without expressing dissatisfaction with his fantasy production.