So What's Up w/ Vernon Davis? (1 Viewer)

[Holy Schneikes]

Is it the QB?

The system?

Has he lost it physically?

Was he tanking or sending the bird to his coaches?

31 isn't ancient for a TE, and he had (presumably still has has) athleticism to spare, so even if he has lost a step, you wouldn't think it would totally kill him. But last year was as ugly as ugly can be.

He's got one year left in his contract. I've got no reason to believe the team is considering releasing him, but just for the record, it would save the team about 5M on the cap this year.

Just wondering what to do with him. Will he ever be a serviceable fantasy option again?

 

[lod01]

QB stinks. System stinks, of course that system and it's players have moved on. He could still dominate with a QB that can get him the ball. I do question is work ethic.

 

[Run It Up]

System and QB.

 

[Bojang0301]

31 is actually pretty old for a TE. 30 used to be a hard line for them. In recent years Gates, Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe have broken the threshold but not many more have overcome it.

Edit to add: Davis definitely has/had the physical ability to defy the rule but given his last season and Kaep's inconsistency I would proceed with caution if looking at him as a sleeper.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

So on the QB...

Davis had 850/13 with Kaep not long ago. So while I agree that Kaep isn't helping, that can't be the primary factor can it?

I also think the system has limited him to some degree for years, but again, was the system really that different in 2013?

Dunno, this one is particularly mind-boggling to me.

 

[cstu]

Getting open but drops a lot of passes (I saw 5 bad ones) and has trouble tracking long passes (one against the Saints would have been a TD but it hit him in the back).

 

[Shutout]

31 is actually pretty old for a TE. 30 used to be a hard line for them. In recent years Gates, Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe have broken the threshold but not many more have overcome it.

Edit to add: Davis definitely has/had the physical ability to defy the rule but given his last season and Kaep's inconsistency I would proceed with caution if looking at him as a sleeper.

Not really. Lots of TEs have had great seasons in the 31-34 age range.

System sucked. He blocked all the time and knew QB couldn't do much because they , for the first time, had o-line and depth issues. Nobody to really take pressure off.

He relied heavily (fantasy) on TDs but his RZ targets were stupid low last year (like 16 all year). some crazy low number.

 

[Bojang0301]

31 is actually pretty old for a TE. 30 used to be a hard line for them. In recent years Gates, Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe have broken the threshold but not many more have overcome it.

Edit to add: Davis definitely has/had the physical ability to defy the rule but given his last season and Kaep's inconsistency I would proceed with caution if looking at him as a sleeper.

Not really. Lots of TEs have had great seasons in the 31-34 age range.

System sucked. He blocked all the time and knew QB couldn't do much because they , for the first time, had o-line and depth issues. Nobody to really take pressure off.

He relied heavily (fantasy) on TDs but his RZ targets were stupid low last year (like 16 all year). some crazy low number.

Not trying to be a smart ### but please elaborate. Even looking at the past 10 years Shockey, Winslow and Dallas Clark off the top of my head were done by 30.

Edit: Mispoke on Clark. 30 was his peak season and he was done at 31.

 

[Bojang0301]

To further my argument I dug up a top 10 list from Bleacher Report for 2000-2009. #4-10 had little to no fantasy significance by their age 31 season and the top 3 were Gonzo, Gates and Witten. The rest were Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Alge Crumpler, Chris Cooley, Desmond Clark, Shockey and Todd Heap.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

On the age thing, it kind of depends on injuries. Is Davis closer to Gonzo, Gates and Witten or the other dudes?

As for the other dudes:

Clark capitalized on situation. He did fall off after some injury filled years which happens sometimes when you get older.

Miller is doing basically the same stuff now he has always done. He has been much better over his last 5 years than his first five years.

Crumpler was a guy who was in a good situation for a while and then wasn't.

Cooley was really banged up, his last full year was his best year, there wasn't really a gradual drop-off for him.

Desmond Clark never had more than 623 yards in 13 years, not sure if he's a legit comp for these guys.

Shockey was injury 100%. Dude never had a 16 game season.

Heap did seem to drop off pretty early.

All in all, not sure there is anything really predictive about these guys as a group. A mixed lot really. My thought, which could be wrong, is that elite talents can stick around for quite a while after 30. Mediocre guys probably just get swept up into a numbers game witch cheaper, just/nearly as good options in younger players. Don't know where Davis is on that spectrum. Physically, he's probably the best specimen ever, and injury-wise he's held up very well overall. We aren't looking at a Shockey here.

 

[Bojang0301]

I think athletically Davis should still be able to play. Even if his blazing speed has regressed, it would fall from being ultra elite for a TE. I guess my first point was don't be over zealous on any TE over 30. It takes superior athleticism, work ethic and luck with injury to make it beyond that point for a TE. Davis has two of those things, with his injury history being more iffy. Nobody takes a bigger beating than a TE. They have to battle in the trenches then go take shots in the middle of the field. It's a more debilitating position than RB and is often overlooked in that regard.

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't know what defines "a good season" these days for a TE, but on 22 occasions a TE 31 or older has posted 100 fantasy points or greater in a season. To spell that out, Gonzalex x 7, Gates x 3, Witten x 2, Sharpe x 2, Wesley Wells x 2, Brent Jones, Raymond Chester, Jimmie Giles, Keith Jackson, Mickey Schuler, and Jay Novacek. In 2014, 100 fantasy points ranked as TE10.

My concern for Davis is less about his age and more about his usage and consistency. Two seasons with 13 TD in each . . . 29 other TDs in 7 other seasons. His high for targets has been 129. Last year, he had 50. His ypr was twice 16.3. Last year, it was 9.4. Three times in the Top 3 at TE . . . five times not in the Top 12.

I am not sure things will change for the better with Geep Chryst as new Niners OC.

As a TE Coach or OC, here were the numbers for the top producing fantasy TE each season under Chryst . . .

1996 ARI Pat Carter 39

1997 ARI Chris Gedney 52

1999 SDC Freddie Jones 79

2000 SDC Freddie Jones 107

2006 CAR Kris Mangum 23

2007 CAR Jeff King 53

2008 CAR Dante Rosario 27

2009 CAR Dante Rosario 43

2010 CAR Dante Rosario 26

That is not exactly a stellar track record for TE production . . .

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Yeah, Garrett Celek is leading the team in receiving right now. Garrett freakin Celek. I'm out. I've wasted this roster spot for too long.