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So who is breaking down in 2013? (1 Viewer)

MAC_32

Footballguy
Carlos Beltran have anything left?
I like types like his, usually come out of the gates hot and once they've cooled off I have found an in-season waiver wire guy to take his place. The bats to be worried about are the ones that rely too much on power and speed. Arms? More variables to consider. It's why I often avoid investing too heavily unless I feel real comfortable with them, much prefer the quantity approach.
 

Eephus

Footballguy
Carlos Beltran have anything left?
That's an interesting one. Beltran had an excellent 2012 but he tailed off a lot in the second half of the season. His SO% over the full season was a career high and his Contact% a career low. That could be just a small sample aberration or a warning sign of his production falling off a cliff this season at age 36. I'd guess it's the former but when coupled with his injury risk, I'd probably let somebody else draft him.
 

RnR

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Based on what?
Off and on injured last year, often a sign of the beginning of the end. Hoping it's not as I picked him up in one league, but acting like the risk isn't there would be silly,.
Holliday is one of the more durable players in the league and is notorious for playing through injuries. He is coming off a 157 game season through those "off and on injuries" you speak of. He averages 144 games per year over a nine year career. He's only 33. If we're calling him out as a guy that could collapse, we may as well list 3/4 of the league.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Based on what?
Off and on injured last year, often a sign of the beginning of the end. Hoping it's not as I picked him up in one league, but acting like the risk isn't there would be silly,.
Holliday is one of the more durable players in the league and is notorious for playing through injuries. He is coming off a 157 game season through those "off and on injuries" you speak of. He averages 144 games per year over a nine year career. He's only 33. If we're calling him out as a guy that could collapse, we may as well list 3/4 of the league.
Because those gritty types that battle through injuries eventually reach the point in which they can't. His numbers slid a bit last year - first OPS under 900 since 2005, definitely reason to believe he continues down the standard bell curve.
 

RnR

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Based on what?
Settle down people. They're guesses. Holliday should be bodybuilding. He's build like a linebacker and I think when it goes, it will go fast for him. He's 33 and has more muscles than he needs so there are more things that can go wrong.
Interesting. There's no doubt Holliday is big and burly, but to me it is more of a "6'4" farm boy country strong" than it is a "bodybuilder gym rat" strong.
 

TobiasFunke

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
 

Bogart

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Care to unwrap this one?
34 years old with recurring shoulder issues, abdominal issues, and hammy issues from what I've read. The Texas heat in the dead of summer is not kind either. Ask Yu about that.
:confused: Yu started 29 games last year, and averaged 7 innings a start during the "dead of summer" in Texas.

Yu most likely would tell me to go #### myself. Or something in Japanese knowing I won't have any idea what he said.

 

Eephus

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
The challenge is identifying which players in their 30s will decline and avoiding them. If you assume everybody over 30 is doomed this year, you're missing out on value and consistency. It's just as flawed a strategy as overinvesting on young players who you think will break out.
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Care to unwrap this one?
34 years old with recurring shoulder issues, abdominal issues, and hammy issues from what I've read. The Texas heat in the dead of summer is not kind either. Ask Yu about that.
:confused: Yu started 29 games last year, and averaged 7 innings a start during the "dead of summer" in Texas.

Yu most likely would tell me to go #### myself. Or something in Japanese knowing I won't have any idea what he said.
I was remarking on Yu's ERA in July/August mainly. Sorry if you didn't like my comment.I'll bet you're right, Yu probably would tell you to go f yourself.

 

Bogart

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Care to unwrap this one?
34 years old with recurring shoulder issues, abdominal issues, and hammy issues from what I've read. The Texas heat in the dead of summer is not kind either. Ask Yu about that.
:confused: Yu started 29 games last year, and averaged 7 innings a start during the "dead of summer" in Texas.

Yu most likely would tell me to go #### myself. Or something in Japanese knowing I won't have any idea what he said.
I was remarking on Yu's ERA in July/August mainly. Sorry if you didn't like my comment.I'll bet you're right, Yu probably would tell you to go f yourself.
No worries. I just find the Texas Heat thing a bit played out. It was a built in excuse for the crappy Texas teams in the past.
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Care to unwrap this one?
34 years old with recurring shoulder issues, abdominal issues, and hammy issues from what I've read. The Texas heat in the dead of summer is not kind either. Ask Yu about that.
:confused: Yu started 29 games last year, and averaged 7 innings a start during the "dead of summer" in Texas.

Yu most likely would tell me to go #### myself. Or something in Japanese knowing I won't have any idea what he said.
I was remarking on Yu's ERA in July/August mainly. Sorry if you didn't like my comment.I'll bet you're right, Yu probably would tell you to go f yourself.
No worries. I just find the Texas Heat thing a bit played out. It was a built in excuse for the crappy Texas teams in the past.
I don't think putting a lid on that stadium would be a horrible idea.
 

TobiasFunke

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
The challenge is identifying which players in their 30s will decline and avoiding them. If you assume everybody over 30 is doomed this year, you're missing out on value and consistency. It's just as flawed a strategy as overinvesting on young players who you think will break out.
All guys over 30, sure. And your point is well made, there's obviously plenty of value to be had on older guys, depending on your leaguemates. But guys like Beltre, Rollins and Holliday are 33-35. In my opinion that's the point where you don't really have to explain why there's a decline/breakdown risk- the answer is right near the top of their baseball reference page. The better question in my opinion would be which guys in that age range might fight off father time a little longer, and why. Like for example Holliday. I see a guy who's as solid as they come, but also a guy whose slash lines have all dipped each of the last three years and who doesn't give you steals any more (as you'd expect from a guy as he moves from 29 to 32). Now that he's 33, is there any reason to think he might reverse the trend, or even match his numbers from 2011 and 2012? Maybe there is. I'd certainly be open to hearing it.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

RnR

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
The challenge is identifying which players in their 30s will decline and avoiding them. If you assume everybody over 30 is doomed this year, you're missing out on value and consistency. It's just as flawed a strategy as overinvesting on young players who you think will break out.
Exactly.
 

Bogart

Footballguy
Big Papi

Matt Holliday :o

Adrian Beltre
Care to unwrap this one?
34 years old with recurring shoulder issues, abdominal issues, and hammy issues from what I've read. The Texas heat in the dead of summer is not kind either. Ask Yu about that.
:confused: Yu started 29 games last year, and averaged 7 innings a start during the "dead of summer" in Texas.

Yu most likely would tell me to go #### myself. Or something in Japanese knowing I won't have any idea what he said.
I was remarking on Yu's ERA in July/August mainly. Sorry if you didn't like my comment.I'll bet you're right, Yu probably would tell you to go f yourself.
No worries. I just find the Texas Heat thing a bit played out. It was a built in excuse for the crappy Texas teams in the past.
I don't think putting a lid on that stadium would be a horrible idea.
It's a little too late for it. They looked at it post-production but the architecture would make it very difficult. Personally, I would hate it. And I sweat my ### off at many a games out there.I like to look at it like playing in Lambeau in January. If you can get your team use to it, use it to your advantage. Let the other team melt.

 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
The challenge is identifying which players in their 30s will decline and avoiding them. If you assume everybody over 30 is doomed this year, you're missing out on value and consistency. It's just as flawed a strategy as overinvesting on young players who you think will break out.
All guys over 30, sure. And your point is well made, there's obviously plenty of value to be had on older guys, depending on your leaguemates. But guys like Beltre, Rollins and Holliday are 33-35. In my opinion that's the point where you don't really have to explain why there's a decline/breakdown risk- the answer is right near the top of their baseball reference page. The better question in my opinion would be which guys in that age range might fight off father time a little longer, and why. Like for example Holliday. I see a guy who's as solid as they come, but also a guy whose slash lines have all dipped each of the last three years and who doesn't give you steals any more (as you'd expect from a guy as he moves from 29 to 32). Now that he's 33, is there any reason to think he might reverse the trend, or even match his numbers from 2011 and 2012? Maybe there is. I'd certainly be open to hearing it.
There should be an old farts who will fight off father time and produce well above their adp thread. My vote: Konerko :banned:
 

Eephus

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
The challenge is identifying which players in their 30s will decline and avoiding them. If you assume everybody over 30 is doomed this year, you're missing out on value and consistency. It's just as flawed a strategy as overinvesting on young players who you think will break out.
All guys over 30, sure. And your point is well made, there's obviously plenty of value to be had on older guys, depending on your leaguemates. But guys like Beltre, Rollins and Holliday are 33-35. In my opinion that's the point where you don't really have to explain why there's a decline/breakdown risk- the answer is right near the top of their baseball reference page. The better question in my opinion would be which guys in that age range might fight off father time a little longer, and why. Like for example Holliday. I see a guy who's as solid as they come, but also a guy whose slash lines have all dipped each of the last three years and who doesn't give you steals any more (as you'd expect from a guy as he moves from 29 to 32). Now that he's 33, is there any reason to think he might reverse the trend, or even match his numbers from 2011 and 2012? Maybe there is. I'd certainly be open to hearing it.
Holliday is a tough one. If you look at his three seasons in St. Louis, there's a very slight decline trend. If you take a linear projection of that, he's still a productive player and probably a top 15 OF. If he gets hurt, obviously he's not but that's true for a player at any age. There are certainly other younger players who you'd rate as a bigger injury risk than Holliday.I typically look for decreases in contact rat or increased strikeouts as a harbinger for decline. There's nothing much in his advanced stats that points to that. 2010-2 look like the same guy in almost every way. He could step off the cliff this year but I don't know how you could predict it based on anything but a hunch and his age.
 

Eephus

Footballguy
It's really weird that people keep asking others to explain why they think guys in their early to mid 30s are at risk of breaking down. That's like asking others to explain why they think some women who recently got married are at risk of putting on weight. You don't need to explain it; the fact that it happens all the ####ing time is good enough reason to wonder if it might happen again.
:goodposting:
The challenge is identifying which players in their 30s will decline and avoiding them. If you assume everybody over 30 is doomed this year, you're missing out on value and consistency. It's just as flawed a strategy as overinvesting on young players who you think will break out.
All guys over 30, sure. And your point is well made, there's obviously plenty of value to be had on older guys, depending on your leaguemates. But guys like Beltre, Rollins and Holliday are 33-35. In my opinion that's the point where you don't really have to explain why there's a decline/breakdown risk- the answer is right near the top of their baseball reference page. The better question in my opinion would be which guys in that age range might fight off father time a little longer, and why. Like for example Holliday. I see a guy who's as solid as they come, but also a guy whose slash lines have all dipped each of the last three years and who doesn't give you steals any more (as you'd expect from a guy as he moves from 29 to 32). Now that he's 33, is there any reason to think he might reverse the trend, or even match his numbers from 2011 and 2012? Maybe there is. I'd certainly be open to hearing it.
There should be an old farts who will fight off father time and produce well above their adp thread. My vote: Konerko :banned:
I'm voting for myself
 

TobiasFunke

Footballguy
I'll put my money where my mouth is on my team's thirtysomethings, Werth and LaRoche. I'm wary of the first guy, not so much the second. Here's why:

Werth is in his age 34 season and coming off injury. By his own admission the injury is still sapping his power- I don't think he cracks 20 HR this year. And even though he keeps himself in amazing shape, I can't see the speed staying where it's been for the last few years. He's still useful from an OBP standpoint, and that makes him useful from a run-scoring standpoint considering that he'll bat second in a good lineup. But even that I think will take a hit. His 2012 K% was abnormally low, like 8-10% lower than every other season of his career. Maybe he made an adjustment because he knew not to swing for the fences. If that's the case, you're looking at the same miserable HR rate he had in 2012, which means like 10 HRs. But if the Ks go up, the average and OBP and runs drop. No way you get his normal power numbers and his 2012 average and OBP. It's not there any more.

LaRoche is 33 and had a career year in 2012, but not by as much as it's being made out to be. The ISO was only a tick up from what he was posting in 2009 and 2010 before his lost 2011 season. The 2012 BABIP is sustainable. The K and BB rates too. He's already slow as molasses, so you're not losing speed. He'll play every day and presumably hit fifth every day behind Harper and Zimmerman. I look at his numbers and don't see steady decline, just some small ups and downs. You could do worse on a mid round 1B.

 

dparker713

Footballguy
The only factors I know of that reliably predict future injury are past injury and age. So just make a list of guys over 30 that were injured last season, and those are the most likely candidates.

 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
Chris Sale?

I didn't realize until reading it on Razzball but he went from 71 IP in 2011 to 192 IP in 2012. That should send up a few red flags.

 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
Chris Sale?

I didn't realize until reading it on Razzball but he went from 71 IP in 2011 to 192 IP in 2012. That should send up a few red flags.
May as well just post the "Verducci Effect" list.
Okay....

2012 Increase from

Pitcher, Team Age Innings Pitched Previous Pro High

Chris Sale, CWS 23 192 +121

Jarrod Parker, OAK 23 214.6 +78

Jose Quintana, CWS 23 185 +63

Joe Kelly, STL 24 187 +55

Stephen Strasburg, WAS 23 159.3 +36

Chris Rusin, CHC 25 173 +34.3

Matt Harvey, NYM 23 169.3 +33.6

Alex Cobb, TB 24 177.6 +33

Felix Doubront, BOS 24 161 +31.6

Dan Straily, OAK 23 191.3 +30.6

Andrew Werner, SD 25 166.6 +30.3
The bold jumps out to me. No one else is really close.
 

RnR

Footballguy
Chris Sale?

I didn't realize until reading it on Razzball but he went from 71 IP in 2011 to 192 IP in 2012. That should send up a few red flags.
May as well just post the "Verducci Effect" list.
Okay....

2012 Increase from

Pitcher, Team Age Innings Pitched Previous Pro High

Chris Sale, CWS 23 192 +121

Jarrod Parker, OAK 23 214.6 +78

Jose Quintana, CWS 23 185 +63

Joe Kelly, STL 24 187 +55

Stephen Strasburg, WAS 23 159.3 +36

Chris Rusin, CHC 25 173 +34.3

Matt Harvey, NYM 23 169.3 +33.6

Alex Cobb, TB 24 177.6 +33

Felix Doubront, BOS 24 161 +31.6

Dan Straily, OAK 23 191.3 +30.6

Andrew Werner, SD 25 166.6 +30.3
The bold jumps out to me. No one else is really close.
I was just saying, the reason for your concern comes from that theory. So there may be other guys that people would want to avoid based on your line of thinking.I don't think it is a bad call, really. Didn't Sale have some elbow soreness that caused a move to the bullpen for a week or two in mid-season as well?

 

Eephus

Footballguy
Chris Sale?

I didn't realize until reading it on Razzball but he went from 71 IP in 2011 to 192 IP in 2012. That should send up a few red flags.
May as well just post the "Verducci Effect" list.
Okay....

2012 Increase from

Pitcher, Team Age Innings Pitched Previous Pro High

Chris Sale, CWS 23 192 +121

Jarrod Parker, OAK 23 214.6 +78

Jose Quintana, CWS 23 185 +63

Joe Kelly, STL 24 187 +55

Stephen Strasburg, WAS 23 159.3 +36

Chris Rusin, CHC 25 173 +34.3

Matt Harvey, NYM 23 169.3 +33.6

Alex Cobb, TB 24 177.6 +33

Felix Doubront, BOS 24 161 +31.6

Dan Straily, OAK 23 191.3 +30.6

Andrew Werner, SD 25 166.6 +30.3
The bold jumps out to me. No one else is really close.
I was just saying, the reason for your concern comes from that theory. So there may be other guys that people would want to avoid based on your line of thinking.I don't think it is a bad call, really. Didn't Sale have some elbow soreness that caused a move to the bullpen for a week or two in mid-season as well?
The White Sox' handling of Sale's career has been pretty baffling. Draft a college starter, install him almost immediately as a MLB closer. The next year, try him as a starter before moving him to middle relief with some SV opportunities toward the end of the year. Then last year, after he had good success in a rotation slot, they announced a move to the bullpen to save his elbow only to reverse course after only one relief appearance.I think Sale has demonstrated he's very capable of doing well in multiple roles if healthy. He probably comes with a higher than average injury risk though.

 

E-Z Glider

Footballguy
'Eephus said:
'RnR said:
Chris Sale?

I didn't realize until reading it on Razzball but he went from 71 IP in 2011 to 192 IP in 2012. That should send up a few red flags.
May as well just post the "Verducci Effect" list.
Okay....

2012 Increase from

Pitcher, Team Age Innings Pitched Previous Pro High

Chris Sale, CWS 23 192 +121

Jarrod Parker, OAK 23 214.6 +78

Jose Quintana, CWS 23 185 +63

Joe Kelly, STL 24 187 +55

Stephen Strasburg, WAS 23 159.3 +36

Chris Rusin, CHC 25 173 +34.3

Matt Harvey, NYM 23 169.3 +33.6

Alex Cobb, TB 24 177.6 +33

Felix Doubront, BOS 24 161 +31.6

Dan Straily, OAK 23 191.3 +30.6

Andrew Werner, SD 25 166.6 +30.3
The bold jumps out to me. No one else is really close.
I was just saying, the reason for your concern comes from that theory. So there may be other guys that people would want to avoid based on your line of thinking.I don't think it is a bad call, really. Didn't Sale have some elbow soreness that caused a move to the bullpen for a week or two in mid-season as well?
The White Sox' handling of Sale's career has been pretty baffling. Draft a college starter, install him almost immediately as a MLB closer. The next year, try him as a starter before moving him to middle relief with some SV opportunities toward the end of the year. Then last year, after he had good success in a rotation slot, they announced a move to the bullpen to save his elbow only to reverse course after only one relief appearance.I think Sale has demonstrated he's very capable of doing well in multiple roles if healthy. He probably comes with a higher than average injury risk though.
Agreed. His violent delivery just adds to the reasons for concern.
 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
Pretty sure the verducci affect has been disproven. Sale's delivery likely still makes him a prime injury candidate at some point though.

 

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