SotT Dynasty Rankings Runningback (2009) (1 Viewer)

[Max Power]

Running Back Rankings | December 11, 2008

RUNNING BACKS

TIER ONE

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 100

Simply the most talented player on the field.

TIER TWO

2. Steven Jackson, STL | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 93

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 92

On pace for his usual 14-15 touchdowns and 45-50 receptions despite splitting carries behind an O-Line in shambles.

4. #Frank Gore, SF | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 92

5. Chris Johnson, TEN | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 90

Kudos if you got onboard The Hype Train for this special playmaker back in August. The league's top rookie RB is as important to the Titans offense as Brian Westbrook is to the Eagles.

6. Matt Forte, CHI | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 88

Ranked No. 1 right now in many PPR leagues.

7. Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 87

8. #Marion Barber III, DAL | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 86

9. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 85

TIER THREE

10. DeAngelo Williams, CAR | Age: 26.4 | Value Score: 77

A change of pace back wouldn't have three 100 yard performances in the last five games. It's time to consider him a feature back.

11. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 76

Portis presents quite the conundrum. At 117 rushing yards per game, contenders need to ride the hot hand this season. Builders, on the other hand, owe it to themselves to move a RB who will be 28-years-old, coming off a possible 370-carry season, and a career-long history of heavy workloads and violent collisions.

12. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 75

13. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 73

His Ricky Williams problem isn't going away until 2010.

14. #Brandon Jacobs, NYG(U) | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 72

15. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 71

Still an elite talent, but it's becoming more obvious that owners will be waiting until 2010 for him to realize his full potential.

TIER FOUR

16. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 63

17. Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 62

Missing a stretch of games with a knee injury for the second year in a row.

18. #Joseph Addai, IND | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 61

Addai's stats in the 15 games since last November 11th: 650 rushing yards on 202 attempts for a 3.2 average. What we have here is far from a RB1, but loyal readers already knew that. Right?

19. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 60

He's gone from obvious buy-low to major doubts about whether he can stay healthy at the NFL level.

20. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 59

2008 fantasy playoff MVP?

21. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 58

22. #Ray Rice, BAL | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 57

Showing off a fine all-around game and giving his coach reason for pause in turning back to Willis McGahee. The future in Baltimore belongs to Rice, not McGahee.

23. [#]Rashard Mendenhall, PIT | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 55

Is it too early to wonder if he's a bust? He couldn't get on the field until Willie Parker's injury, and now he's roster fodder until 2009.

TIER FIVE

24. Ryan Grant, GB | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 45

Not only are the big plays gone, but more problematic is that he's slipped to the point where he doesn't even catch passes anymore. Steer clear of running backs with no role in the passing game.

25. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 44

Rod Marinelli runs his team like a high school football coach, which means it took the freshman nine games to "earn" the spot from the senior.

26. [#]Felix Jones, DAL | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 43

27. Thomas Jones, NYJ | Age: 31.0 | Value Score: 41

28. Larry Johnson, KC | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 40

29. Willie Parker, PIT | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 39

This is why Parker has never had stability as a Dynasty asset: he's not a true workhorse. Every time the Steelers realize this, they start taking away responsibilities, first passing game work, then short-yardage work, and eventually the starting job.

30. #Willis McGahee, BAL[x] | Age: 27.9 | Value Score: 36

Losing carries to Ray Rice and in line for a new address in 2009.

31. Derrick Ward, NYG(U) | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 34

Could be starting in another city in 2009 if Giants feel comfortable with Bradshaw taking over his role.

32. [#]Laurence Maroney, NE[x] | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 32

The shoulder injury closes the books on his 2008 season, and he heads into 2009 as an injury-prone committee back with no role in the passing game.

TIER SIX

33. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 24

34. Jamaal Charles, KC | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 22

35. Le'Ron McClain, BAL | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 21

36. LenDale White, TEN | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 19

Chocoate chip pancakes.

37. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 17

38. Brandon Jackson, GB | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 13

39. Leon Washington, NYJ | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 12

40. Jamal Lewis, CLE[x] | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 11

Time to explore younger options.

TIER SEVEN

41. Darren Sproles, SD(U) | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 8

Unrestricted free agent after 2008 season.

42. Chester Taylor, MIN | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 8

43. Tashard Choice, DAL | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 8

44. [#]Ryan Torain, DEN | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 8

45. Fred Jackson, BUF | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 8

46. Kevin Jones, CHI(U) | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 7

47. Mewelde Moore, PIT | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 7

Never gets a starting gig, but in two separate trials he's shown that he can be a very productive NFL running back.

48. Dominic Rhodes, IND(U) | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 7

May work his way back into a timeshare with Addai.

49. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 7

Stinks. Doesn't catch the ball, doesn't receive consistent carries, is in danger of losing his job, and is frequently injured. I've never understood the love here.

50. Tim Hightower, ARI | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 6

51. [#]Peyton Hillis, DEN | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 6

52. Warrick Dunn, TB | Age: 34.7 | Value Score: 6

53. [#]Earnest Graham, TB | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 6

54. Sammy Morris, NE | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 6

55. Ladell Betts, WAS | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 5

56. Jerome Harrison, CLE | Age: 26.5 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 5

57. Ricky Williams, MIA | Age: 32.3 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 5

58. Cadillac Williams, TB | Age: 27.4 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 5

59. Cedric Benson, CIN(U) | Age: 26.7 | Contract: UFA | Value Score: 5

TIER EIGHT

60. Maurice Morris, SEA(U) | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 3

61. LaMont Jordan, NE(U) | Age: 30.8 | Value Score: 3

62. P.J. Pope, DEN | Age: 25.6 | Value Score: 3

63. [#]Fred Taylor, JAX[x] | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 3

See Edge. The one-time "Fragile Freddie" is thru as a fantasy factor.

64. Julius Jones, SEA[x] | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 3

65. J.J. Arrington, ARI[R] | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 3

66. Correll Buckhalter, PHI(U) | Age: 30.9 | Value Score: 3

67. Kevin Faulk, NE | Age: 33.3 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 3

68. Selvin Young, DEN | Age: 25.9 | Value Score: 3

He's clearly a committee back – the part of the committee that never gets in the end zone.

69. [#]Ahman Green, HOU[x] | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 3

70. Edgerrin James, ARI[x] | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 3

I think he comes up just short of the NFL Hall of Fame, but Edge is a first ballot fantasy HOFer. So this is how it ends, not with a bang but with a whimper?

71. Jalen Parmele, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 2

72. Xavier Omon, BAL | Age: 24.6 | Value Score: 2

73. [#]Mike Hart, IND | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 2

74. [#]Kregg Lumpkin, GB | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2

75. Gary Russell, PIT | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 2

76. Jacob Hester, SD | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 2

77. DeShaun Foster, SF | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 2

78. Danny Ware, NYG[R] | Age: 24.6 | Value Score: 2

79. Tatum Bell, DEN(U) | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 2

80. Chauncy Washington, JAX | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 2

TIER NINE

81. Antonio Pittman, STL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 1

82. Lorenzo Booker, PHI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 1

83. Rudi Johnson, DET(U) | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

84. Deuce McAllister, NO[x] | Age: 30.7 | Value Score: 1

85. Chris Perry, CIN[x] | Age: 27.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 1

86. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, NE | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1

87. Kenny Watson, CIN | Age: 31.6 | Value Score: 1

88. Michael Bush, OAK | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 1

89. #DeShawn Wynn, GB | Age: 25.9 | Value Score: 1

90. [#]Andre Hall, DEN | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 1

91. [#]Michael Pittman, DEN | Age: 34.1 | Value Score: 1

92. [#]Kolby Smith, KC | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 1

93. Najeh Daveport, IND | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 1

94. Michael Bennett, SD | Age: 31.0 | Value Score: 1

95. Michael Robinson, SF | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 1

IMO S.Jax and Ronnie Brown are getting to much love. Maybe not enough for Reggie?

ETA: Mendenhall also seems a bit high

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

i like Slaton a bit more than you i see.

 

[Desert_Power]

Turner should be higher.

 

[Burning Sensation]

i like Slaton a bit more than you i see.

These are Fear & Loathings rankings, not the OP's. I agree with you about Slaton, i have been harrassing F&L all year about it. In his defense, he has been coming around lately.

 

[Max Power]

i like Slaton a bit more than you i see.

These are Fear & Loathings rankings, not the OP's. I agree with you about Slaton, i have been harrassing F&L all year about it. In his defense, he has been coming around lately.

I guess I should have made it clearer that this isn't my hard work. Just posting to generate discussion.Those that want Turner and Slaton higher, where do you rank them? Are we sold that Slaton is a 20+ touch back?

 

[EBF]

The main thing that stands out to me about this list is that there really aren't a lot of franchise type dynasty RBs.

There's so much turnover at this position that I'd be reluctant to invest a lot in any of these guys.

That said, I like the risk/reward proposition of these guys:

Jonathan Stewart - Qualitatively, I think he's the best RB in this rookie class. The downside is that you'll have to spend a lot to get him and he might not help you win a championship until 2-3 years from now (if ever). That's a pretty big downside.

Pierre Thomas - Looking beastly this season. Why can't he be the next Michael Turner? Again, you've got the nagging questions about opportunity. Otherwise he might be viable as a top 10 pick.

Rashard Mendenhall - Upside is worth the risk in the middle rounds. FWP has been sliding and Mewelde isn't the answer.

Felix Jones - I don't know if he'll ever be more than a commitee back, but he made positive plays almost every time he got a chance.

Leon Washington - I've never had enough faith in him to actually draft him onto one of my teams, but he's sort of like Felix Jones: an impressive scat back type who consistently makes great plays.

Darren Sproles - Low upside, but talented. Could potentially grow into a Warrick Dunn type.

Tashard Choice - Would've been a great value. Probably not anymore, but if he slips late enough you can draft him hoping that he eventually gets a starting shot ala Chester Taylor. Then sell high.

 

[Max Power]

39. Leon Washington, NYJ | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 12

Why are we so sure Washington wont step in to a Chris Johnson type role when Jones moves on? Guy has some major talent

 

[Riffraff]

Benson is probably 20 spots too low.

 

[loose circuits]

Michael Turner seems a little low. He's a beast and seems to stay healthy. In a non-PPR, I think he has to be top 5. The offense around him can only improve

 

[Burning Sensation]

Michael Turner seems a little low. He's a beast and seems to stay healthy. In a non-PPR, I think he has to be top 5. The offense around him can only improve

He has proven to be the real deal, and has the fewest ? than most of the top 10 RB's going into next season.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

My dynasty rankings would be more like this for my personal preference.

AP (league of his own IMO, big drop after him)

M.Drew (more of a workload in 09 could have even bigger #'s)

M.Turner (you looking at a 20td a year type rb on a improving O)

Westy (oldie but this guy is amazing...i normally dont like older rb's)

SJAX (injuries scare da hell out of me, but he is BEAST when healthy)

(wierd bunch here, alot will disagree but thats fine on this group)

F.Gore (All around non rbbc when healthy, moster rb)

S.Slaton (WHAT?!! well this guy i swear looks to have it all, Vison/Hands/Work Ethic/Coaches Respect and while he isnt a 25carry rb, he can handle 25 touches a game)

MBIII (would be higher if not for Felix/Choice, i think they all will be played in 09)

M.Forte (Nice all around rb that shoulder the load)

M.Lynch (i think he had a down year but the talents still there.)

C.Johnson (Ok he is fast, real fast, but am i the only one that thinks he doesnt run with PATIENCE?? I mean, he needs to go to the school of P.Holmes of learning how to run with patience.)

D.Williams (i think we all see what this kid can finally do, I think he has all the tools you look for in a special rb, Stewert and him will kinda knock each other down)

(nice drop)

J.Stewert (looks the part of a very good future NFL rb, DWILL and him will keep each other from being ELITE)

Ronnie B (played it conservative this year but i think another year from ACL he gets things back poppin)

C.Portis (this my boy but next year he could be inline for more injuries and disappointments)

B.Jacobs (who knows where he will be nex year....he can score some td's and get yards in a timeshare)

R.Bush (Pierre is coming on strong, but Bush still is an Elite talent that the team will be forced to use)

those my soft dynasty rankings so far headed into next year. As of now i wouldnt rate any rookies above them, although they will be close in range of the next few rb listed.

 

[Burning Sensation]

i like Slaton a bit more than you i see.

These are Fear & Loathings rankings, not the OP's. I agree with you about Slaton, i have been harrassing F&L all year about it. In his defense, he has been coming around lately.

I guess I should have made it clearer that this isn't my hard work. Just posting to generate discussion.Those that want Turner and Slaton higher, where do you rank them? Are we sold that Slaton is a 20+ touch back?

I would have Turner 8 behind Lynch. I think Slaton is capable of being a 20+ touch back, even if he is not, i would still rank him ahead of Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacons and Clinton Portis. Thats assuming the Texans bring someone in to take a good chunk of the touches next year, if they dont, i could find 4-5 more RB's i would put him in front of.

 

[Max Power]

Benson is probably 20 spots too low.

Sadly this is true, but I have a hard time thinking the Bengals don't grab a RB in the first 3 rounds. There might be some serious value left on the board early rd 2.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Benson is probably 20 spots too low.

Sadly this is true, but I have a hard time thinking the Bengals don't grab a RB in the first 3 rounds. There might be some serious value left on the board early rd 2.

Right. Bengals will likely draft a RB once again. Hell, Benson isn't even under contract for next season. Plus he stinks. Plus he's a headcase.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Benson is probably 20 spots too low.

Sadly this is true, but I have a hard time thinking the Bengals don't grab a RB in the first 3 rounds. There might be some serious value left on the board early rd 2.

Right. Bengals will likely draft a RB once again. Hell, Benson isn't even under contract for next season. Plus he stinks. Plus he's a headcase.

I agree, i dont think he carrys to much dyno value at all. Kinda similar to Rudi and KJ's dyno value.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Michael Turner seems a little low. He's a beast and seems to stay healthy. In a non-PPR, I think he has to be top 5. The offense around him can only improve

He has proven to be the real deal, and has the fewest ? than most of the top 10 RB's going into next season.

When/if he hits 370 carries this season, he's going to have one of the biggest ? of all the Top-10 RBs going into next season.He's also the one elite RB who never catches passes and is therefore very reliant on getting 20+ carries and a TD weekly. I expect "Rudi Johnson in his prime" numbers for the next couple of seasons, which is very nice. I just prefer a different type of back.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Michael Turner seems a little low. He's a beast and seems to stay healthy. In a non-PPR, I think he has to be top 5. The offense around him can only improve

He has proven to be the real deal, and has the fewest ? than most of the top 10 RB's going into next season.

When/if he hits 370 carries this season, he's going to have one of the biggest ? of all the Top-10 RBs going into next season.He's also the one elite RB who never catches passes and is therefore very reliant on getting 20+ carries and a TD weekly. I expect "Rudi Johnson in his prime" numbers for the next couple of seasons, which is very nice. I just prefer a different type of back.

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?ETA, The Rudi comparison is not a bad one, minus one pretty big difference, Turner has breakaway speed.

 

[Riffraff]

Michael Turner seems a little low. He's a beast and seems to stay healthy. In a non-PPR, I think he has to be top 5. The offense around him can only improve

He has proven to be the real deal, and has the fewest ? than most of the top 10 RB's going into next season.

When/if he hits 370 carries this season, he's going to have one of the biggest ? of all the Top-10 RBs going into next season.He's also the one elite RB who never catches passes and is therefore very reliant on getting 20+ carries and a TD weekly. I expect "Rudi Johnson in his prime" numbers for the next couple of seasons, which is very nice. I just prefer a different type of back.

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?

Unofficial number of carries that cause a RB to have a bad following year.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?

You've never seen the studies on RBs that get to 370 carries in a season? Let's put it this way: if Michael Turner makes it to 370 carries this season, history tells us he will fall apart in 2009.There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but Larry Johnson owners were counting on him being the exception too.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Michael Turner seems a little low. He's a beast and seems to stay healthy. In a non-PPR, I think he has to be top 5. The offense around him can only improve

He has proven to be the real deal, and has the fewest ? than most of the top 10 RB's going into next season.

When/if he hits 370 carries this season, he's going to have one of the biggest ? of all the Top-10 RBs going into next season.He's also the one elite RB who never catches passes and is therefore very reliant on getting 20+ carries and a TD weekly. I expect "Rudi Johnson in his prime" numbers for the next couple of seasons, which is very nice. I just prefer a different type of back.

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?

Unofficial number of carries that cause a RBs to have a bad following year.

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?

You've never seen the studies on RBs that get to 370 carries in a season? Let's put it this way: if Michael Turner makes it to 370 carries this season, history tells us he will fall apart in 2009.There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but Larry Johnson owners were counting on him being the exception too.

Ive seen them, but like i said in the post above, i dont really buy into it. The sample size isnt big enough, and it leaves to many other factors out of the equation. What is the "magic number"? 370, so if he only gets 360 he will be OK?

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?

You've never seen the studies on RBs that get to 370 carries in a season? Let's put it this way: if Michael Turner makes it to 370 carries this season, history tells us he will fall apart in 2009.There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but Larry Johnson owners were counting on him being the exception too.

Ive seen them, but like i said in the post above, i dont really buy into it. The sample size isnt big enough, and it leaves to many other factors out of the equation. What is the "magic number"? 370, so if he only gets 360 he will be OK?

LOL, thats funnyI dont buy into either, there is some 250 carry rb's that broke down as well. But you never know...it could just be something to it, moreso aside from the carrys, the downs they are in on a weekly basis over time make break them down over a season. To get that many carries you would have to be in the game a ton of plays. But i dunno.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Why would 370 carries make him a big ?

You've never seen the studies on RBs that get to 370 carries in a season? Let's put it this way: if Michael Turner makes it to 370 carries this season, history tells us he will fall apart in 2009.There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but Larry Johnson owners were counting on him being the exception too.

Ive seen them, but like i said in the post above, i dont really buy into it. The sample size isnt big enough, and it leaves to many other factors out of the equation. What is the "magic number"? 370, so if he only gets 360 he will be OK?

LOL, thats funnyI dont buy into either, there is some 250 carry rb's that broke down as well. But you never know...it could just be something to it, moreso aside from the carrys, the downs they are in on a weekly basis over time make break them down over a season. To get that many carries you would have to be in the game a ton of plays. But i dunno.

I am sure if you are logging 350 caries year after year, you will eventually start to break down. However, to say once a RB hits 370, he is likely to be a bust the next year seems a bit absurd. I see no signs of Turner tiring as the season goes on, so i have no reason to think after 7 months off he will be broken down to start the 2009 season.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

The age listed is the age at the start of the 2009 season, right?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

The age listed is the age at the start of the 2009 season, right?

Yes. Just made the change last night.

 

[travdogg]

No major disagreements.

I think Tier 1 is a little small, I'd throw MJD in that tier, I think he has an incredible future ahead of him. In a PPR league I'd actually value him ahead of Peterson.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I see no signs of Turner tiring as the season goes on, so i have no reason to think after 7 months off he will be broken down to start the 2009 season.

I'm not sure that's part of the criteria for the 370 theory.

 

[Burning Sensation]

No major disagreements.I think Tier 1 is a little small, I'd throw MJD in that tier, I think he has an incredible future ahead of him. In a PPR league I'd actually value him ahead of Peterson.

except for the MJD over AD thing. Not that it is all that crazy, but i would still prefer Peterson in PPR. To me the top two tiers have one player in each of them. Tier 1 - ADTier 2 - MJD

 

[Burning Sensation]

I see no signs of Turner tiring as the season goes on, so i have no reason to think after 7 months off he will be broken down to start the 2009 season.

I'm not sure that's part of the criteria for the 370 theory.

Maybe tiring was the wrong term, but either way, if the 370 carries was going to make him fall apart next year, i think we would see some signs as the season came to an end.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

I don't know but SJax seems a bit high sitting there at #2. Seems more like a buy low candidate in hopes of a return to something close to his most productive year, rather than putting him right smack at #2. Just my $0.02

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I see no signs of Turner tiring as the season goes on, so i have no reason to think after 7 months off he will be broken down to start the 2009 season.

I'm not sure that's part of the criteria for the 370 theory.

Maybe tiring was the wrong term, but either way, if the 370 carries was going to make him fall apart next year, i think we would see some signs as the season came to an end.

That's what I'm saying. I don't recall the guys who came up with the theory ever saying, "Look, we should have caught this earlier because he was tiring something fierce towards the end of the previous season." Off the top of my head, look at Jamal Anderson's career year with 400+ carries. He just kept getting stronger as the season went along.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't know but SJax seems a bit high sitting there at #2. Seems more like a buy low candidate in hopes of a return to something close to his most productive year, rather than putting him right smack at #2. Just my $0.02

The fact that he is still young, and dominant when healthy even on a bad team warrants a top 5 rankings, but as an owner, he hasnt been helping me much over the last couple of years. I would trade him if i could get top 3 RB return for him, but nobody will touch him at that price.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't know but SJax seems a bit high sitting there at #2. Seems more like a buy low candidate in hopes of a return to something close to his most productive year, rather than putting him right smack at #2. Just my $0.02

The fact that he is still young, and dominant when healthy even on a bad team warrants a top 5 rankings, but as an owner, he hasnt been helping me much over the last couple of years. I would trade him if i could get top 3 RB return for him, but nobody will touch him at that price.

I'm an owner and a die-hard believer. Even with the injuries, he & Fitz are still the two players everybody else in my league goes after in trade talks. He's not going anywhere.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I see no signs of Turner tiring as the season goes on, so i have no reason to think after 7 months off he will be broken down to start the 2009 season.

I'm not sure that's part of the criteria for the 370 theory.

Maybe tiring was the wrong term, but either way, if the 370 carries was going to make him fall apart next year, i think we would see some signs as the season came to an end.

That's what I'm saying. I don't recall the guys who came up with the theory ever saying, "Look, we should have caught this earlier because he was tiring something fierce towards the end of the previous season." Off the top of my head, look at Jamal Anderson's career year with 400+ carries. He just kept getting stronger as the season went along.

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

 

[stevegamer]

Turner might get away with so many carries due to very, very few reception touches. However, that means he's not getting you points for receptions, so it cuts both ways.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't know but SJax seems a bit high sitting there at #2. Seems more like a buy low candidate in hopes of a return to something close to his most productive year, rather than putting him right smack at #2. Just my $0.02

The fact that he is still young, and dominant when healthy even on a bad team warrants a top 5 rankings, but as an owner, he hasnt been helping me much over the last couple of years. I would trade him if i could get top 3 RB return for him, but nobody will touch him at that price.

I'm an owner and a die-hard believer. Even with the injuries, he & Fitz are still the two players everybody else in my league goes after in trade talks. He's not going anywhere.

Besides for AD, Fitz might be the most untouchable player in dynasty leagues, so i can understand him. What are people offering for Jackson that you wont consider trading him though?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't know but SJax seems a bit high sitting there at #2. Seems more like a buy low candidate in hopes of a return to something close to his most productive year, rather than putting him right smack at #2. Just my $0.02

The fact that he is still young, and dominant when healthy even on a bad team warrants a top 5 rankings, but as an owner, he hasnt been helping me much over the last couple of years. I would trade him if i could get top 3 RB return for him, but nobody will touch him at that price.

I'm an owner and a die-hard believer. Even with the injuries, he & Fitz are still the two players everybody else in my league goes after in trade talks. He's not going anywhere.

Besides for AD, Fitz might be the most untouchable player in dynasty leagues, so i can understand him. What are people offering for Jackson that you wont consider trading him though?

I've never had close to a good enough offer to deal S-Jax. I don't believe in trading down in talent for depth, so it's going to take someone as good as S-Jax -- and you can count those guys on one hand. I haven't been offered Adrian Peterson, so I don't see S-Jax going anywhere.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

A lot of carries = a lot of hits = wear & tear. Body breaks down and future injuries are incurred.

 

[travdogg]

The more I look at it, I can see moving McFadden a little higher, he's had somewhat of a washout season this year, but I think his talent is far too great to be lumped in with guys like Rice and even Addai.

What really impresses me with McFadden are his pass catching skills, he kinda reminds me of a less powerful Steven Jackson with arguably more breakaway ability. Not saying he should be ranked that high since he has plenty of question marks, just saying I think he's capable of that level of play.

If he hadn't gotten hurt this year, I have no doubts that he'd have blown by Fargas on the depth chart several weeks ago and would be a guy people would be relying on right now.

In PPR leagues I'd have McFadden ranked not too differently than a guy like Ronnie Brown, in a non-PPR league, I still think he's a lot closer to Stewart and Jacobs than Rice and Addai.

Being in Oakland kinda hurts, but it kinda helps because they are likely going to be a run-first team for a long time(at least as long as they stick with Russell) and he pretty has to be a big part of their passing game if they have any chance for success through the air.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

A lot of carries = a lot of hits = wear & tear. Body breaks down and future injuries are incurred.

Again, wouldnt there be signs of the wear and tear at the end of the previous season? At the end of last year, i crossed LT's name of my draft sheets, and had i owned him in dynasty leagues, i would have traded him. However, if a player, particularly a young one with lots of tread left on the tires has 370 caries, i think its crazy to assume he will fall on his face the next season.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

A lot of carries = a lot of hits = wear & tear. Body breaks down and future injuries are incurred.

Again, wouldnt there be signs of the wear and tear at the end of the previous season? At the end of last year, i crossed LT's name of my draft sheets, and had i owned him in dynasty leagues, i would have traded him. However, if a player, particularly a young one with lots of tread left on the tires has 370 caries, i think its crazy to assume he will fall on his face the next season.

Seriously? This is what I've been trying to explain. As far as I know, there's never been any indication that the player getting the ball for 370 carries is showing obvious signs of wear and tear at the end of the season. Thus, the Jamal Anderson example where he definitely got stronger toward the end of the season. Terrell Davis played just as well at the end of the same season too. Let's take a look at Larry Johnson's 2006 season. Nope. He rushed for 135+ yards in the last two games . . . and had 8 touchdowns in the last 3 games.With the LT2 example, you're talking about an older RB with a career of heavy usage. That's a horse of a different color.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

A lot of carries = a lot of hits = wear & tear. Body breaks down and future injuries are incurred.

Again, wouldnt there be signs of the wear and tear at the end of the previous season? At the end of last year, i crossed LT's name of my draft sheets, and had i owned him in dynasty leagues, i would have traded him. However, if a player, particularly a young one with lots of tread left on the tires has 370 caries, i think its crazy to assume he will fall on his face the next season.

Seriously? This is what I've been trying to explain. As far as I know, there's never been any indication that the player getting the ball for 370 carries is showing obvious signs of wear and tear at the end of the season. Thus, the Jamal Anderson example where he definitely got stronger toward the end of the season. Terrell Davis played just as well at the end of the same season too. Let's take a look at Larry Johnson's 2006 season. Nope. He rushed for 135+ yards in the last two games . . . and had 8 touchdowns in the last 3 games.With the LT2 example, you're talking about an older RB with a career of heavy usage. That's a horse of a different color.

I am not sayimg those players didnt have dissapointing seasons the following year, i am just not sold on the fact that it was due to wear and tear.

 

[munchkin]

Pierre Thomas - Looking beastly this season. Why can't he be the next Michael Turner? Again, you've got the nagging questions about opportunity. Otherwise he might be viable as a top 10 pick.

Why has Thomas looked so awful early in the season and during the pre-season and so good late in the year as a spot starter? Is he a better player when the defenses are thin and tired? I am not saying he hasn't looked good, maybe even real good, at times but he sure hasn't been consistent. I don't know that opportunity is his problem, I think it's consistency. With Deuce possibly on the way out and Bush's inability to take over as an every down back, not to mention a penchant for nagging injuries, Thomas should once again have an opportunity to show what he is capable of next year in camp.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

Pierre Thomas - Looking beastly this season. Why can't he be the next Michael Turner? Again, you've got the nagging questions about opportunity. Otherwise he might be viable as a top 10 pick.

Why has Thomas looked so awful early in the season and during the pre-season and so good late in the year as a spot starter? Is he a better player when the defenses are thin and tired? I am not saying he hasn't looked good, maybe even real good, at times but he sure hasn't been consistent. I don't know that opportunity is his problem, I think it's consistency. With Deuce possibly on the way out and Bush's inability to take over as an every down back, not to mention a penchant for nagging injuries, Thomas should once again have an opportunity to show what he is capable of next year in camp.

I haven't looked at this closely, but I'm guessing Reggie Bush plays into this. Thomas has shown to be a very capable receiver. I think he's misused if they just put him in a Duece style power running mode. Thomas seems to play better when he's involved in every aspect of the game. Again, I haven't looked, but my hunch is Thomas is less consistent when he's getting spot carries in power running situations.

 

[george]

.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

A lot of carries = a lot of hits = wear & tear. Body breaks down and future injuries are incurred.

I think that is the simple explanation. If a guy had 370 carries last year, he's going to get a lot this year and that leads to more opportunities to get hurt.

 

[Tanner9919]

not to throw water on the fire here, but is Steven Jackson really worthy of the #2 spot?! how so?

lets see now, aside from one good year , 2006, where he rushed for 1528 yards and 13 tds , 4.4 avg, and another 90 receptions, he's been very plain jane in every other NFL season in which he's played.

2004, 134 att, 673 yards 4 tds. 5.0 avg.

2005, 254 att,1046 yards, 8 td, 4.1 avg per carry.., 43 rec for 320 yards. 2 rec td.

2007, 237/1002/5, 38/271/1, 4.2 avg

2008, 192/774/5, 34/314/1, 4.0 avg.



given the state of the Rams at this time, I wouldn't touch Sjax if you paid me..I can sort of see your point about his

ability if it wasn't for his a) injuries, b) lousy, aging offensive players around him, c) has had only 1 good season and only 1 pro bowl visit.

hate to say it, but, big guys that run upright don't last long in the NFL.

Sjax is really nothing special, I wouldn't even rank him among the top 20 RB's..

 

[puckalicious]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

So if one time I looked at an apple tree and an apple fell, does that mean I caused it? Or maybe if I only choose to remember the times I saw an apple fall I'll be convinced it only happens when I look at it.Here's to hoping Turner only gets 369 carries this year so I can feel good about him next season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

not to throw water on the fire here, but is Steven Jackson really worthy of the #2 spot?! how so?

lets see now, aside from one good year , 2006, where he rushed for 1528 yards and 13 tds , 4.4 avg, and another 90 receptions, he's been very plain jane in every other NFL season in which he's played.

2004, 134 att, 673 yards 4 tds. 5.0 avg.

2005, 254 att,1046 yards, 8 td, 4.1 avg per carry.., 43 rec for 320 yards. 2 rec td.

2007, 237/1002/5, 38/271/1, 4.2 avg

2008, 192/774/5, 34/314/1, 4.0 avg.



given the state of the Rams at this time, I wouldn't touch Sjax if you paid me..I can sort of see your point about his

ability if it wasn't for his a) injuries, b) lousy, aging offensive players around him, c) has had only 1 good season and only 1 pro bowl visit.

hate to say it, but, big guys that run upright don't last long in the NFL.

Sjax is really nothing special, I wouldn't even rank him among the top 20 RB's..

Sjax is kind of like the Andre Johnson of RBs. He's put up great numbers only once, but outside of that he's been in some of the worst situations possibly imaginable and still put up solid numbers.Remember how bad of shape the Rams were in in 2007? They had what, 8 offensive linemen out with injuries, were down to their 3rd string QB, missing both WRs for a few games, and even had a backup COACH in there? Not to mention that on top of all that, Sjax was hurt himself, yet he STILL put up respectable numbers and was strong down the stretch.

This year, the Rams team has an offense around Sjax that can't pick up a first down to keep a drive going if their life depends on it, and a defense that can't keep them into the game if their life depended on it. They just broke a streak of a month worth of games without being in the redzone once on offense, and they fall behind so quickly that they have to abandon the run game by halftime. Sjax himself has been gimpy on top of all that, and pretty much any drive that he doesn't single-handidly take care of all by himself ends in a quick punt.

The Rams the last two years have been two of the most awful situations for a fantasy football RB in recent memory. There's just no way anyone could put up even mediocre numbers in that situation. Yet Sjax has.

This is a dynasty we're talking about here. I'm sure the #2 ranking of Sjax is banking on the Rams at some point turning things around at least a little bit. This is the NFL we're talking about here, teams don't generally stay in this bad of shape for very long anymore. With Sjax putting up the numbers he has in the worst possible fantasy football RB situation imaginable, just imagine what he could do if the Rams were even MEDIOCRE. Now imagine if 2 or 3 years from now they're actually good.

So many RBs are dependent on their situation. Sjax's can't possibly get any worse. We know his floor, because the people around him couldn't get worse if they decided to start a bunch of pop warner players.