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Sports Illustrated says first round is overrated? (1 Viewer)

gregjcross

Footballguy
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...unds/index.html

This SI NFL writer guy, Jeffri Chadiha, is wrong.

The first round isn't overrated, it is however a high stakes crap shoot, one tailor-made for a bunch of split personality teams at the top of the order, seeking new players and revised identities.

I note here: The draft is a supreme Gridiron event, watched annually by millions of viewers and overseen by flavor-filled media or agent “ringleaders” such as Mel Kiper, Chris "Boomer" Berman, Jimmy (Mr. Hair) Johnson and Drew Rosenhaus. Its downright fun to follow. And it is the most important day of the year for the fortunes of NFL teams.

So what is overrated?

40 yard dash times, bench presses and position drafting seem WAY overrated. Too many teams chase the hype and go for positions in the front of the draft instead of taking the productive players. But is the first round overrated? Not at all.

To my point, ask the San Diego Chargers if the First Round is overrated... In 1990 they drafted USC LB Junior Seau, in 2001 it was TCU RB Ladanian Tomlinson, and in 2005, LB Shawn Merriman. Three guys who either would or will serve them at a Pro Bowl-level for a decade each.

The Baltimore Ravens concur. They have nabbed first round talents including UCLA OT Jonathan Ogden, Miami LB Ray Lewis, ASU TE Todd Heap, Miami FS Ed Reed, Tennessee RB Jamal Lewis and Arizona CB Chris Mcallister over a period of about ten years. Most have been at a pro bowl level and Ray Lewis may be one of the best ever.

Conversely, ask the Falcons, who followed up a wonderful 1989 choice of FSU's CB “Neon” Deion Sanders by selecting Nebraska CB Bruce Pickens at the 3 slot in 1991. Why? Because of his super fast forty yard dash of 4.3 seconds and the fact that he was a cornerback. The Falcons might reflect that they could have been a little smarter about evaluating how Pickens impacted games in college rather than his position and 'rare' speed.

Tampa Bay learned its lesson about drafting (actually I recall that they switched the people making draft decisions), but only after painful series of blown picks.

Let me review Tampa beginning with 1989: Nebraska OLB Broderick Thomas at the 6 slot, followed by Alabama LB Keith Mccants in 1990, Tennessee OT Charles McRae in 1991, Alabama DE Eric Curry in 1993 and topped off with Fresno State QB Trent Dilfer at the six slot in 1994. Most played a few years but were busts. Dilfer did get a ring later on, in a different life.

The Bucs got a lot smarter with the 1995 -2001 selection efforts, save for a dumb pick of Regan Upshaw in '96. By putting emphasis on film and less on measuring tape they took Miami's all-world DT Warren Sapp in 1995, then grabbed FSU LB Derrick Brooks that same round. Then they followed-up with FSU RB Warrick Dunn in 1997, LSU DT Anthony McFarland in 1999, and in 2001, a decent Florida OT, Kenyatta Walker. Florida Gator WR Reidel Anthony was an overrated late round one from '97 that I (and the Bucs!) wish could be omitted from this paragraph.

Now for 2006:

Conventional wisdom might say that Vanderbilt senior QB Jay Cutler doesn't belong in round one. On the other hand he played with moxy over a productive college career in a REAL power conference, the SEC. So, he could easily justify it. Because he is a quarterback, he has been elevated to the upper echelon of round one when he really belongs at the end of round one. Its six of one and half dozen of the other with this Vandy riser. Mario Edwards looks great at DE for any team with the golden opportunity to call his name. Could his teammate and bookend DE, Manny Lawson, also from NC State, be worth a shot in round one? Probably not. If they both were, wouldn't the Wolfpack have broken every sack record known to God?

So, yes, its a crap shoot. But overrated, no way.

 
To my point, ask the San Diego Chargers if the First Round is overrated... In 1990 they drafted USC LB Junior Seau, in 2001 it was TCU RB Ladanian Tomlinson, and in 2005, LB Shawn Merriman. Three guys who either would or will serve them at a Pro Bowl-level for a decade each.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your overall point, but using the Chargers to help prove it may be a poor choice. In between Seau and Tomlinson was a guy by the name of Leaf (and a few others you may not have ever heard of), and between Tomlinson and Merriman is Sammy Davis.
 
Yeah, Leaf :ph34r: and a few other Beathard-induced :bag: trade blunders probably could have been pointed out, I however thought Sammy Davis was a second rounder and wanted to keep this to the first round discussion

To my point, ask the San Diego Chargers if the First Round is overrated... In 1990 they drafted USC LB Junior Seau, in 2001 it was TCU RB Ladanian Tomlinson, and in 2005, LB Shawn Merriman. Three guys who either would or will serve them at a Pro Bowl-level for a decade each.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your overall point, but using the Chargers to help prove it may be a poor choice. In between Seau and Tomlinson was a guy by the name of Leaf (and a few others you may not have ever heard of), and between Tomlinson and Merriman is Sammy Davis.
 
Yeah, Leaf :ph34r: and a few other Beathard-induced :bag: trade blunders probably could have been pointed out, I however thought Sammy Davis was a second rounder and wanted to keep this to the first round discussion
Sadly, Davis was indeed a first rounder.
 
Not overrated to the Steelers. Every one of these guys is a gamer.

Code:
Year Player Pos. School 2005 Heath Miller TE Virginia 2004 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (Ohio) 2003 Troy Polamalu SS Southern California 2002 Kendall Simmons OT Auburn 2001 Casey Hampton DT Texas 2000 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State
My guess is, if you're an organization that historically sucks at drafting, then its overrated. If you're an organization that's generally good at drafting, then its key.
 
STEELERS make every pick count. That is the amazing part. Cowher and staff have been the god of all rounds. Then they take the money they save and sign a linebacker like James Farrior.

Not overrated to the Steelers. Every one of these guys is a gamer.

Code:
Year Player Pos. School 2005 Heath Miller TE Virginia 2004 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (Ohio) 2003 Troy Polamalu SS Southern California 2002 Kendall Simmons OT Auburn 2001 Casey Hampton DT Texas 2000 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State
My guess is, if you're an organization that historically sucks at drafting, then its overrated. If you're an organization that's generally good at drafting, then its key.
 
Historically speaking, it's tough to call the 1st round overrated. But each year, 1st rd draft picks command more and more guaranteed money. If I were a GM I'd ask myself: is it really worth it to have a top-10 or top-15 pick and shell out millions for an unproven player?

 
Show me a team willing to trade away their 1st round pick every year for more later picks and i'll show you a dying franchise. I'll take 3 years of Leafs to get 1 Tomlinson in a heartbeat.

 
generally these players are not worth $20-25M guaranteed money but htey will be paid that way--- just enough of them are high impact

Historically speaking, it's tough to call the 1st round overrated. But each year, 1st rd draft picks command more and more guaranteed money. If I were a GM I'd ask myself: is it really worth it to have a top-10 or top-15 pick and shell out millions for an unproven player?
 
This year the RB's are so overrated it s joke .

Bush ( mybe he has a chance to make it ) but still Barry Sanders wont lose any sleep .

Williams in a normal draft he should go 2nd or third round.

White = Worthless

Maroney way way overrated.

Addai = this is a joke the guy is 4th round material he has nothing special and they picture him end of 1st round .

Calhoun and Drew are third down backs at very very best .

 
Show me a team willing to trade away their 1st round pick every year for more later picks and i'll show you a dying franchise.
Despite the article I just linked to, I think I generally agree that first-round picks are worth more than second-round picks (even after controlling for salary). (Although I'm not really sure.) But to answer your "show me" request, the Redskins in the 1980s built a very strong team by usually trading their firsts away for seconds.
I'll take 3 years of Leafs to get 1 Tomlinson in a heartbeat.
This I disagree with. Drafting a huge bust with a very high pick is tremendously damaging. He takes up a huge portion of your salary cap for years to come, and in return destroys the morale of the team. (I'm talking Leaf in particular -- not other busts like Wadsworth from the same draft class.) It's a difficult thing for a team to recover from. Tomlinson has done a lot of good for the Chargers, but probably not as much good as Leaf did bad -- definitely not as much good as three Leafs would do bad.
 
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My favorite picks have always been 2nd rounders and top of the 4th round. 1st rounders are certainly better prospects, but when you consider what you pay them, bust risk, and value you can get in return through trade for later picks or established NFL players the value of the 1st rounders is often too high. The draft value charts are way out of line most of the time.

If I'm the Texans there's no way I keep that pick. I'd trade it for the most I could get and then try and trade whatever first rounders I got in the trade for multiple 2nd and third rounders.

They could in theroy end up getting something like McCargo, Dwell Jackson, Lutui, Trueblood and Pittman for Bush. I'd do that all day long.

 
Show me a team willing to trade away their 1st round pick every year for more later picks and i'll show you a dying franchise.
Despite the article I just linked to, I think I generally agree that first-round picks are worth more than second-round picks (even after controlling for salary). (Although I'm not really sure.) But to answer your "show me" request, the Redskins in the 1980s built a very strong team by usually trading their firsts away for seconds.
I'll take 3 years of Leafs to get 1 Tomlinson in a heartbeat.
This I disagree with. Drafting a huge bust with a very high pick is tremendously damaging. He takes up a huge portion of your salary cap for years to come, and in return destroys the morale of the team. (I'm talking Leaf in particular -- not other busts like Wadsworth from the same draft class.) It's a difficult thing for a team to recover from. Tomlinson has done a lot of good for the Chargers, but probably not as much good as Leaf did bad -- definitely not as much good as three Leafs would do bad.
I would prefer that you guys just poke my eyes out rather than continue to use phrases like "three Leafs."
 
I think something could be said for always trading out of the top 10 being a good strategy. The money ramps up so quickly to #1 there that there is no way that you can expect to get value with the bust-rate.

Teams who draft really well make most of their great picks outside the top 10, Steelers and Ravens as examples.

 
It can be well worth it for the team to trade down and get the additional second, third and fourth rounders to augment the draft.

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I think something could be said for always trading out of the top 10 being a good strategy. The money ramps up so quickly to #1 there that there is no way that you can expect to get value with the bust-rate.

Teams who draft really well make most of their great picks outside the top 10, Steelers and Ravens as examples.
 

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