Staffords perceived ff death is a fallacy (1 Viewer)

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Season Wasn't a Fluke

By Zach Kruse (Featured Columnist) on October 20, 2012 830 reads 4

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Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford may not be putting up the kind of overall numbers in 2012 that he did last season, but at least he has showed his 5,000-yard season a year ago was no fluke. 

Through five games in 2012, Stafford has thrown for 1,493 yards, and his 16-game pace is good for 4,778 yards. Stafford needs to average 318.8 yards over the final 11 games to once again hit the 5,000-yard mark. 

His current per-game average of 298.6 is good for fourth-best in the NFL. 

A year ago, Stafford became just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards in a single season. His 5,038 yards were the fifth most ever, trailing only Drew Brees in 2008 (5,069), Dan Marino in 1984 (5,084), Tom Brady in 2011 (5,235) and Brees in 2011 (5,476). 

His 314.9 passing yards a game also set a franchise record.

However, Stafford has come under fire to start the 2012 season, mainly because his Lions are just 2-3 and Stafford's other passing numbers are below the pace he set last season. 

Stafford's mechanics have come under fire.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Stafford is completing 62.4 percent of his passes in 2012, down from 63.5 last season. His touchdown-to-interception ratio has went from 41-16 in 2011 to just 4-5 this season, and Stafford is gaining fewer yards per completion (7.6 in 2011, 6.8 in 2012). 

As a result, the Lions offensive output has suffered. After averaging the fourth-most points per game in the NFL last season with 29.6, Detroit has dropped to 25.2 a game—good for 14th in the NFL in 2012.

At least one NFL film junkie feels that Stafford's mechanics are to blame for the drop-off in production. 

Speaking with Adam Caplan on his weekly "Fantasy Guru" podcast, NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell called Stafford's mechanics this season "atrocious." It was a stinging criticism from one of the more highly respected film analysts in the business. 

However, Stafford has always been a quarterback who uses different arm slots and angles in order to fit passes into tight windows or create passing lanes. 

Stafford's offensive coordinator said as much this week. 

Scott Linehan, via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, stated:

He’s always had different throwing angles. Sometimes it’s to get under some tall reach of a guy and throw sidearm, sometimes it’s just because of slowing down the delivery like a pitcher does on an off-speed pitch or something. There’s reasons for it and you would never coach that out of him. He’s been effective with that and done a great job.

Also, keep in mind that Stafford overcame some mechanics issues and a finger injury during the middle of last season to explode over the final five games of the season. 

After tossing nine interceptions during Weeks 10-13, Stafford responded by throwing for 1,919 yards over the final five games. Stafford's 383.8 passing yards a game during that stretch was the best five-game mark for any Lions quarterback in franchise history. He also threw 15 interceptions against just three interceptions during that span. 

The schedule also looks favorable for Stafford to approach 5,000 yards. 

Over the final 11 games, Detroit plays Chicago twice, Seattle, Minnesota, Houston and Arizona. Each game represents a difficult task for the Lions to run the football, meaning Stafford will be called upon frequently to win with the passing game. 

Stafford may not replicate his touchdown numbers from 2011 this season, and the Lions may not win 10 games with him under center. But despite some of Stafford's early struggles, his ability to be productive yardage-wise remains elite in the NFL. Stafford should come close to adding another season to the history of 5,000-yard passers in 2012.

 

[Banger]

ya but where are the TDs? They are 2-3 because he's not scoring TDs.

 

[lod01]

He needs to grow a pair and throw the ball to Calvin in the redzone.

 

[EBF]

Only "good" in FF because he throws a lot.

6.8 yards per attempt is bad for such an experienced QB.

Stafford = overrated.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I really like Stafford...

But how does his pace for 4778 yards this season surpass the 5038 he threw for last year?

Also, I doubt us owners are excited about his 13/16 TD/INT pace he is on this year vs. the 41/16 he finished with last year.

 

[bolldpt]

I really like Stafford...But how does his pace for 4778 yards this season surpass the 5038 he threw for last year?Also, I doubt us owners are excited about his 13/16 TD/INT pace he is on this year vs. the 41/16 he finished with last year.

Well he will go on a tear of 40 more TDs with no more INTs. He's used his allotment.

 

[Futz]

He's not passing the eyeball test right now despite how many yards he's thrown for. He seems a bit anxious in the pocket and is hurrying his throws resulting in over throws and general inaccuracy.

It's not all his fault though. He should have have at least twice the TDs if Pettigrew, Young and yes even Calvin wouldn't have dropped TD passes.

I'm not going to disagree with you. The time to buy is either right now or never. The minute he puts together 4 quarters, you won't get him.

 

[BobbyLayne]

You've posted that article a few times today, which is surprising because I presume a Lions fan has seen him play this year. That analysis is like someone describing what they've discovered looking through the wrong end of a telescope. Stafford's decision making has been horrible at times, and his execution has been a head scratcher (we've already seen more WTHWT throws through 5 games than the previous 3 years).

A lot of people point to his poor first half performances, but come on - we've been watching Scwartz long enough to know the lack of preparation is almost a hallmark of his regime. Nobody is ever going to compare to Couglin in that regard. But credit where its due, he and the staff do recognize and adjust once the game is under way.

I'd like to see Bell more involved. The offense clicked last year with Jahvid as a HR threat. Granted the talent is not comparable, but he is a better fit to the scheme than Mikel. But some of the issues (drops) should self-correct.

And force it to Calvin. He can rip a ball away from anybody.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I really like Stafford...But how does his pace for 4778 yards this season surpass the 5038 he threw for last year?Also, I doubt us owners are excited about his 13/16 TD/INT pace he is on this year vs. the 41/16 he finished with last year.

Might have phrased this wrong. As of game 6 this year he has passed for more yards than he had thru game 6 last year. I'm not even saying he will equal or surpass last years numbers. But I don't think so much has changed from last year to justify the change in perceived value. He can be had in a trade for about 50 guys. I think ff people especially equate what happens with talent and not luck/matchups/penalties/ drops etc. Maybe he's a slow starter? I dunno. But I do know this. The lions d is meh and he will be asked to throw a lot with that schedule. But he caught fire and tore it up the last half of last year, I think chances are fairly good he an do it again down the stretch this year...

 

[BeTheMatch]

I couldn't care less what the stats say. He has looked absolutely terrible this year. Pathetically bad in a school girl kind of way. That doesn't bode well over the long term.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

He's not passing the eyeball test right now despite how many yards he's thrown for. He seems a bit anxious in the pocket and is hurrying his throws resulting in over throws and general inaccuracy.It's not all his fault though. He should have have at least twice the TDs if Pettigrew, Young and yes even Calvin wouldn't have dropped TD passes.I'm not going to disagree with you. The time to buy is either right now or never. The minute he puts together 4 quarters, you won't get him.

Exactly. If I had my druthers his price will be much higher in about 3 hours. But CHI d is really good. If he puts up a mediocre/bad game on mnf I'm gonna fleece the Stafford owners like Bain Capitol fleeces floundering companies!

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

You've posted that article a few times today, which is surprising because I presume a Lions fan has seen him play this year. That analysis is like someone describing what they've discovered looking through the wrong end of a telescope. Stafford's decision making has been horrible at times, and his execution has been a head scratcher (we've already seen more WTHWT throws through 5 games than the previous 3 years).A lot of people point to his poor first half performances, but come on - we've been watching Scwartz long enough to know the lack of preparation is almost a hallmark of his regime. Nobody is ever going to compare to Couglin in that regard. But credit where its due, he and the staff do recognize and adjust once the game is under way.I'd like to see Bell more involved. The offense clicked last year with Jahvid as a HR threat. Granted the talent is not comparable, but he is a better fit to the scheme than Mikel. But some of the issues (drops) should self-correct.And force it to Calvin. He can rip a ball away from anybody.

Its a spinoff Thread from the whiny mega thread.He had those throws last year too. Penalties and drops have really artificially deflated his stats this year. Plus he only played half of one of the games too.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I couldn't care less what the stats say. He has looked absolutely terrible this year. Pathetically bad in a school girl kind of way. That doesn't bode well over the long term.

He does have the 4th highest ypg among qbs. They don't bestow that title, its stat based. By all rights counting only fairly eggreious drops and the mega OPI call, he'd have another 200 yards and 4-5 TDs to boot and people are lauding him as a first round pick.There's a reason that the thread tile said BUY LOW. I'm not saying the aren't a few warts, but its the only reason. You won't have to trade Jamaal charles or Vincent jackson to acquire him.

 

[BigJim®]

I couldn't care less what the stats say. He has looked absolutely terrible this year.

Gotta agree with this. Stafford isn't throwing fundementally well, throwing off the back foot, sailing balls, just bad. And unfortunately those few times he did hit someone tonight the Lions receivers are dropping easy catches.

 

[BigJim®]

Terrible end zone fade there to Johnson. You have a guy who is 6'5" with a 41 inch vertical and you throw a line drive at head level? I just don't get this guy at all.

 

[Hang 10]

Perceived decline.

 

[SameSongNDance]

It's a reality sadly. He's making poor decisions, his footwork is off and he's somehow over throwing a dude who's 6'5.

 

[renesauz]

Only "good" in FF because he throws a lot. 6.8 yards per attempt is bad for such an experienced QB. Stafford = overrated.

I'm far from impressed by him. Good short-term value based on volume, but generally over-rated.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Holy sidearm batman.

 

[Dought Man]

Bears had him rattled good tonight. He just doesn't have that feathery touch to put it in between the linebakers and safeties in 2 deep.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

He's out of my top 10

 

[Hendo]

Hes not the same player as last year, his team esp his WRs dont know how to catch and his mechanics are drasticaly off. He has a lot of work to do to get remotely back to form and his supporting cast needs to earn a paycheck by catching the ball as well... Titus Young and Pettigrew are absolute garbage btw.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Numbers can be so deceiving. Staffords line: 261 yards 1TD, 1 INT. Middling fantasy day.

In reality Stafford added 153 yards 1 TD and 1 INT in the last 6.5 minutes. He had 46 attempts and 5.7 ypa. He did squat until the Bears had the game all but wrapped up.

He's got 5 TD passes and 264 pass attempts in 6 games. 44/game yet less than 1 TD/ game. With Calvin Johnson to throw to.

As a point of reference, Aaron Rodgers has 262 pass attempts in 7 games with 19 TDs.

 

[BigJim®]

He had some decent throws there finishing up, but it's hard to understand his sudden ability to throw with 2 minutes left in games. I don't consider Stafford a sell in dynasty - he obviously showed what he's capable of last year and has good surrounding talent (and I'm a Linehan believer). But I'm not a redraft buyer at all. Whether he's throwing lasers to TEs, nonfade fades, or sailing 20 yard throws, he's just not throwing catchable balls. Just a layman perspective, seems like he's got immediate happy feat, and bails from the pocket early. A pump fake here or there would be good since he's always facing deep safeties. JMHO

 

[sho nuff]

I couldn't care less what the stats say. He has looked absolutely terrible this year. Pathetically bad in a school girl kind of way. That doesn't bode well over the long term.

He does have the 4th highest ypg among qbs. They don't bestow that title, its stat based. By all rights counting only fairly eggreious drops and the mega OPI call, he'd have another 200 yards and 4-5 TDs to boot and people are lauding him as a first round pick.There's a reason that the thread tile said BUY LOW. I'm not saying the aren't a few warts, but its the only reason. You won't have to trade Jamaal charles or Vincent jackson to acquire him.

Right now...7th most yards per game...on the 5th most attempts.Sorry, that is not very impressive.Especially with the 5 TD/6 INT he has put up through 6 games.Buy low? Sure...but lets not pretend everything is great right now...there is a reason his value is "low"...and its not because the decline is a fallacy.

 

[Drop]

Stafford's biggest issue is that he does not climb the pocket often enough. He is moving backwards constantly like a bad Madden player. The sick part is that he has the arm to get away with it more than most. He just needs to make his drop then step up in the pocket and throw it and he'll be a boss. Someone tweet him and let him know.

I know people want to trash him for a myriad of reasons relating to his fantasy football value, but seriously... gut feeling what do you think he would have done had the Lions recovered the onside kick last night? 14-13 DET more often than not, he's just got it like that.

 

[Rick James]

All I know is every Stafford owner in every league I'm in, is getting killed.

 

[simey]

All I know is every Stafford owner in every league I'm in, is getting killed.

Three out of 6 of Stafford's games have been in the 20s point wise in FF, so if those owners are getting killed every week there is more wrong with their team than just Stafford.

 

[Hang 10]

All I know is every Stafford owner in every league I'm in, is getting killed.

Three out of 6 of Stafford's games have been in the 20s point wise in FF, so if those owners are getting killed every week there is more wrong with their team than just Stafford.

Sure, there's more wrong with their team because they wasted a high draft pick on QB that's a bust.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I really like Stafford...

But how does his pace for 4778 yards this season surpass the 5038 he threw for last year?

Also, I doubt us owners are excited about his 13/16 TD/INT pace he is on this year vs. the 41/16 he finished with last year.

Might have phrased this wrong. As of game 6 this year he has passed for more yards than he had thru game 6 last year. I'm not even saying he will equal or surpass last years numbers. But I don't think so much has changed from last year to justify the change in perceived value. He can be had in a trade for about 50 100 guys. I think ff people especially equate what happens with talent and not luck/matchups/penalties/ drops etc.

Maybe he's a slow starter? I dunno. But I do know this. The lions d is meh and he will be asked to throw a lot with that schedule. But he caught fire and tore it up the last half of last year, I think chances are fairly good he an do it again down the stretch this year...

Updated... Wow what a #### show last night. I hear burleson is one for the year (broken leg) and bobbylane (broken heart) is out for life.

But we knew the bears D is stout, especially vs the pass. But for all the darkness, the lions were in the redzone 4x. But 2 fumbles and the 4th down sop/desperation int later...

Silver lining, you can likely get Stafford now for a bag of peanuts. I'm gonna test the waters and see if the previously "off the market" Calvin Johnson owners have changed their minds.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I couldn't care less what the stats say. He has looked absolutely terrible this year. Pathetically bad in a school girl kind of way. That doesn't bode well over the long term.

He does have the 4th highest ypg among qbs. They don't bestow that title, its stat based. By all rights counting only fairly eggreious drops and the mega OPI call, he'd have another 200 yards and 4-5 TDs to boot and people are lauding him as a first round pick.There's a reason that the thread tile said BUY LOW. I'm not saying the aren't a few warts, but its the only reason. You won't have to trade Jamaal charles or Vincent jackson to acquire him.

Right now...7th most yards per game...on the 5th most attempts.Sorry, that is not very impressive.Especially with the 5 TD/6 INT he has put up through 6 games.Buy low? Sure...but lets not pretend everything is great right now...there is a reason his value is "low"...and its not because the decline is a fallacy.

You are right. Maybe death of Stafford is a fallacy is a better title.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Numbers can be so deceiving. Staffords line: 261 yards 1TD, 1 INT. Middling fantasy day.In reality Stafford added 153 yards 1 TD and 1 INT in the last 6.5 minutes. He had 46 attempts and 5.7 ypa. He did squat until the Bears had the game all but wrapped up. He's got 5 TD passes and 264 pass attempts in 6 games. 44/game yet less than 1 TD/ game. With Calvin Johnson to throw to. As a point of reference, Aaron Rodgers has 262 pass attempts in 7 games with 19 TDs.

Its maddening, but they do this thing every week. I bet 70% of Stafford's career stats come In he second half/hurry up. It'll give you an ulcer, but the lions going down big and needing to throw often script will be replayed weekly down the stretch. I'm curious to see what Stafford and Calvin are going for this week.

 

[Concept Coop]

Only "good" in FF because he throws a lot. 6.8 yards per attempt is bad for such an experienced QB. Stafford = overrated.

Honest question, becuase I don't know: How much of this is system?

 

[RUSF18]

I'm looking into acquiring him in a keeper league, as I have Matt Ryan but need to throw him back in the pool for next season. So I'm considering a buy low opportunity on Stafford and also grabbing a premium player for Ryan, feeling my title chances are slim. I'd be really curious to hear some more specifics about what people think has caused his decline. The backpedaling in the pocket is one thing I have noticed about him, so there.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Numbers can be so deceiving. Staffords line: 261 yards 1TD, 1 INT. Middling fantasy day.In reality Stafford added 153 yards 1 TD and 1 INT in the last 6.5 minutes. He had 46 attempts and 5.7 ypa. He did squat until the Bears had the game all but wrapped up. He's got 5 TD passes and 264 pass attempts in 6 games. 44/game yet less than 1 TD/ game. With Calvin Johnson to throw to. As a point of reference, Aaron Rodgers has 262 pass attempts in 7 games with 19 TDs.

Its maddening, but they do this thing every week. I bet 70% of Stafford's career stats come In he second half/hurry up. It'll give you an ulcer, but the lions going down big and needing to throw often script will be replayed weekly down the stretch. I'm curious to see what Stafford and Calvin are going for this week.

nice game vs a great defense too.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Anyone buy low last week

Now maybe teams will stop tripling Megatron.

 

[sdp1226]

Numbers can be so deceiving. Staffords line: 261 yards 1TD, 1 INT. Middling fantasy day.In reality Stafford added 153 yards 1 TD and 1 INT in the last 6.5 minutes. He had 46 attempts and 5.7 ypa. He did squat until the Bears had the game all but wrapped up. He's got 5 TD passes and 264 pass attempts in 6 games. 44/game yet less than 1 TD/ game. With Calvin Johnson to throw to. As a point of reference, Aaron Rodgers has 262 pass attempts in 7 games with 19 TDs.

Its maddening, but they do this thing every week. I bet 70% of Stafford's career stats come In he second half/hurry up. It'll give you an ulcer, but the lions going down big and needing to throw often script will be replayed weekly down the stretch. I'm curious to see what Stafford and Calvin are going for this week.

nice game vs a great defense too.

Indeed it was.I was strongly considering starting Weeden instead this week I'm glad I didn't, but that just goes to show how much confidence I and many other Stafford owners have lost in this guy. This performance definitely reinstates some of that confidence.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

If we aren't supposed to bury him based on one several bad outings, why are we supposed to elevate him after one good outing? I've got him in 2 leagues and paid dearly for him in both. I'm married to him so I need him to start lighting it up. Trust me, I'm pulling for the guy. But you can't expect me to forget that the only good passing attack the Lions had against the abyssmal Titan defense didn't come from Stafford.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

 

[Short Corner]

Should jump to QB12 this week.

 

[cstu]

If we aren't supposed to bury him based on one several bad outings, why are we supposed to elevate him after one good outing? I've got him in 2 leagues and paid dearly for him in both. I'm married to him so I need him to start lighting it up. Trust me, I'm pulling for the guy. But you can't expect me to forget that the only good passing attack the Lions had against the abyssmal Titan defense didn't come from Stafford.

Since week 3 he's the #7 QB. Since his week 5 bye he's #3.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

If we aren't supposed to bury him based on one several bad outings, why are we supposed to elevate him after one good outing? I've got him in 2 leagues and paid dearly for him in both. I'm married to him so I need him to start lighting it up. Trust me, I'm pulling for the guy. But you can't expect me to forget that the only good passing attack the Lions had against the abyssmal Titan defense didn't come from Stafford.

Since week 3 he's the #7 QB. Since his week 5 bye he's #3.

And if you bought low after the mnf stinker vs the bears you've made out like a bandit.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

 

[Hendo]

Hes 7th in mine just behind Ryan right now

 

[BobbyLayne]

Hes 7th in mine just behind Ryan right now

Yep, 8th in mine (tied with Andrew Luck) on a PPG basis. Not much advantage to have a below average QB at a top 5 price. In 12 team leagues, having him as a QB1 puts you at a disadvantage more often than not. I don't mind having the K7 or DST8, but having my QB1/WR1/RB1 there isn't a winning formula.Most Stafford owners are scrambling for their last playoff spot or already eliminated. 6 clunkers thru week 11. Three elite performances in his last five starts - and in between, weeks when he was QB22 and QB19. Dude killed a lot of fantasy seasons this year. Doesn't really matter how much he garbage points he puts up now chucking it 60+ times - the damage is done.So glad I didn't draft him.

 

[ohforpetessake]

Traded Ahmad Bradshaw for him about 4 weeks ago because Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler were not cutting it.

Best trade I've made all year.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Not that it really matters much from a fantasy perspective, but a lot of Stafford's current fantasy value comes simply from his massive amount of pass attempts; he's currently on pace to have the most pass attempts in a season of all time. I think Stafford's a much better fantasy QB than he is a NFL QB, because all in all he's pretty inefficient.

 

[Ladsud]

So inconsistent, play to play, series to series, game to game. The fantasy points will be there at the end of the year,but being a Lions fan and watching every single snap this year ill never draft him again until he ages and matures a bit in a few years.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Traded Ahmad Bradshaw for him about 4 weeks ago because Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler were not cutting it.Best trade I've made all year.

At least this guy got it. The rest of the responses today guy has been a top 3 qb from the week this was posted. Was even posted before Chicago debacle saying his life is low now, if he puts up a stinker you can get for peanuts. He did,you could, and people still notching about the first guy who drafted him. Hilarious.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Not that it really matters much from a fantasy perspective, but a lot of Stafford's current fantasy value comes simply from his massive amount of pass attempts; he's currently on pace to have the most pass attempts in a season of all time. I think Stafford's a much better fantasy QB than he is a NFL QB, because all in all he's pretty inefficient.

The numbers support that:
[*]20th Comp %

[*]29th TD %

[*]21st YPA

[*]16th AYPA

The one thing I think you have to give him credit for is he does take care of the football. 7th best INT%, which is even more remarkable considering he started off the year with 3 interceptions in the 1st half of the first game.

The other aspect of Stafford to like is intangible - his leadership. He's definitely above average in his ability to lead, and he's mentally tough. Very positive individual who never criticizes in the pressers. His natural tendency is to remain upbeat and confident.

Great arm, but I think he'll learn how to use it better (know when to take a bit off or arc it over the defenders. He has bad mechnics and footwork, but when you have a howitzer it's easy to fall into bad habits.

Overall I think he's got a great future. But he's not elite IRL or in FF right now.