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Tough lineup decisions for Week Three
By Court E. Mann
Sept. 21, 2007
From week to week, your players’ fantasy fortunes can fluctuate wildly from touchdown hog to missing person. How else can you explain the 51-45 fantasy phenomenon that went down in Cleveland in Week Two?
The truth is that outside of the elite offensive weapons, fantasy production can be a lot more inconsistent than we desire — and even the game’s best aren’t immune to the roller coaster. A player’s opponent, location, health, motivation, love life, even his pre-game breakfast can have a significant impact on his numbers in any given week. “Start ‘Em-Sit ‘Em” aims to elucidate those factors to help you set your lineup. We won’t bore you with kicker and defense statistics — after all, you know to start the Monsters of the Midway and Adam Vinatieri’s golden toe — so we’ll focus exclusively on your skill-position players. Here are a few reserves you may want to move up your depth chart and a couple weekly regulars you should consider sending to the pine.
Start
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (vs. CIN): Admittedly, it doesn’t take an expert to figure this one out. In Week Three, Hasselbeck welcomes a Cincinatti defense to Seattle fresh off a game in which they made Derek Anderson (328 yards, five touchdowns) look like Archie, Peyton and Eli all put together into one Super Manning. It’s that kind of matchup that turns this ordinarily steady signalcaller into a spectacular fantasy play.
Redskins QB Jason Campbell (vs. NYG): It’s not that Campbell was so impressive in Washington’s surprising win over Philadelphia, although he did manage the game well (209 yards, one touchdown). This placement is far more about Big Blue’s defense, or lack thereof. In two games, the Giants have allowed Tony Romo and Brett Favre to combine for 640 yards and a whopping eight touchdowns (one of them rushing).
Cowboys RB Marion Barber (@ CHI): Yes, Barber is facing the Bears in Chicago on Sunday night. But are you really about to bench a guy who has scored 18 touchdowns in his last 16 regular-season games? A guy who is averaging close to seven yards per touch? Really? Sure, the Bears have locked down L.T. and L.J. thus far, but all it takes is a Terrell Owens pass-interference penalty and Barber will find his way into the endzone yet again.
Panthers RB DeShaun Foster (@ ATL): It looks like more of the same ugly committee backfield in Carolina this season, which means you must choose your Panther back wisely on gameday. When the Falcons are on the docket, Foster is your man. Carolina’s starter has only five 100-yard games (regular season) since the start of the 2005 season, and three of them have come against the Falcons.
Browns WR Braylon Edwards (@ OAK): Which Edwards is going to show up on Sunday? The mercurial pout or the play-making stud? Well, know this when you set your lineup for Week Three. Derek Anderson has made four NFL starts in his career. In them, Edwards has four touchdown catches. More than a third of Anderson’s career TD tosses (four of 11) have been hauled in by Edwards. Oakland’s 29th-ranked pass defense certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Raiders WR Ronald Curry (vs. CLE): You might have noticed a few receivers running wild against the Browns last week. Some guy named Chad Johnson racked up 209 receiving yards, two touchdowns and one beer shower, while receiving mate T.J. Houshmanzadeh chipped in with a mere eight catches and two scores of his own. Despite just two catches last week, give Curry — the Raiders’ leading receiver this year and last — another look.
Texans TE Owen Daniels (vs. IND): As you’ll learn in the next section, I’m not wild about the Texans’ offense sans Andre Johnson. However, the one player who has a great opportunity to step into increased production is Daniels, who is second on the team in receiving and has the ability to test the Colts’ cover-2 where it’s vulnerable. It wouldn’t surprise to see Daniels on top of Houston’s receiving ledger in Week Three.
Sit
Cardinals QB Matt Leinart (@ BAL): Week Two was a lot more like it. After a nasty season opener, Leinart rebounded for 299 yards and a score against Seattle at home, but on the road at Baltimore is just about as brutal as it gets. Carson Palmer’s 194 yards and two scores vs. the Ravens was widely considered a fantasy victory, and Leinart isn’t anywhere near Palmer in terms of handling pressure and reading defenses.
Giants QB Eli Manning (@ WAS): For all the shortcomings Eli hears about on a regular basis, he deserves a healthy helping of praise for gutting through an injury that certainly seems like it could have kept him out at least a couple weeks. Manning was adequate on Sunday against the Packers (211 yards, one touchdown), but he has only four passing scores in five career meetings with the Redskins. He’s clearly not healthy, and his receiving corps is also banged up.
Texans RB Ahman Green (vs. IND): With Andre Johnson on the sideline, the Colts’ defense has only rookie Jacoby Jones, veteran Kevin Walter and inactive Andre Davis to threaten them downfield. Something tells me Bob Sanders won’t be playing much deep-halves coverage in this ball game, and Green better prepare for a healthy dose of the Colts’ primary run stopper. With Ron Dayne also in the mix, and an unclear feel for who will see the ball at the stripe, there just isn’t a whole lot of upside with Green this week.
Packers RB DeShawn Wynn (vs. SD): Feeling good about winning the waiver-wire scramble for Wynn? Let me introduce you to Chargers NT Jamal Williams, who has essentially turned the Chargers into an annual beast against the run. Williams sustained an elbow injury vs. the Patriots, but all signs point to him lining up against a Packers front five that has underperformed in the ground game thus far.
Bills WR Lee Evans (@ NE): I’m typically one to favor sticking with your studs, even in the face of busted starts, but Evans’ history against the Pats is just too sorry. In six career tilts with New England, Evans — who has averaged about a touchdown every two games for his career — has zero trips to the endzone with only 13 catches and an average of 40 receiving yards per game. You have to strongly consider your other options.
Eagles WR Reggie Brown (vs. DET): Like Evans, Brown was a standout fantasy performer a year ago, and he was expected to take a step forward in his third season. However, he has shown limited ability to separate from defensive backs pressing him at the line of scrimmage, and his quarterback is either rusty or not healthy enough to be the passer he once was. In either case, I’d much prefer to see the Eagles score a second offensive touchdown before I trot a member of their passing game into my fantasy lineup.
49ers TE Vernon Davis (@ PIT): It’s not going to be easy to put Davis on your bench, not after you reached a couple rounds early to nab everyone’s favorite sleeper. But it would be a huge upset to see Davis break out in the Steel City on Sunday. Not only does Davis have just four catches for 27 yards on the year, but the Niners have yet to cross the stripe through the air. To make matters worse, the Steelers have given up a grand total of 10 points this season.
Tough lineup decisions for Week Three
By Court E. Mann
Sept. 21, 2007
From week to week, your players’ fantasy fortunes can fluctuate wildly from touchdown hog to missing person. How else can you explain the 51-45 fantasy phenomenon that went down in Cleveland in Week Two?
The truth is that outside of the elite offensive weapons, fantasy production can be a lot more inconsistent than we desire — and even the game’s best aren’t immune to the roller coaster. A player’s opponent, location, health, motivation, love life, even his pre-game breakfast can have a significant impact on his numbers in any given week. “Start ‘Em-Sit ‘Em” aims to elucidate those factors to help you set your lineup. We won’t bore you with kicker and defense statistics — after all, you know to start the Monsters of the Midway and Adam Vinatieri’s golden toe — so we’ll focus exclusively on your skill-position players. Here are a few reserves you may want to move up your depth chart and a couple weekly regulars you should consider sending to the pine.
Start
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (vs. CIN): Admittedly, it doesn’t take an expert to figure this one out. In Week Three, Hasselbeck welcomes a Cincinatti defense to Seattle fresh off a game in which they made Derek Anderson (328 yards, five touchdowns) look like Archie, Peyton and Eli all put together into one Super Manning. It’s that kind of matchup that turns this ordinarily steady signalcaller into a spectacular fantasy play.
Redskins QB Jason Campbell (vs. NYG): It’s not that Campbell was so impressive in Washington’s surprising win over Philadelphia, although he did manage the game well (209 yards, one touchdown). This placement is far more about Big Blue’s defense, or lack thereof. In two games, the Giants have allowed Tony Romo and Brett Favre to combine for 640 yards and a whopping eight touchdowns (one of them rushing).
Cowboys RB Marion Barber (@ CHI): Yes, Barber is facing the Bears in Chicago on Sunday night. But are you really about to bench a guy who has scored 18 touchdowns in his last 16 regular-season games? A guy who is averaging close to seven yards per touch? Really? Sure, the Bears have locked down L.T. and L.J. thus far, but all it takes is a Terrell Owens pass-interference penalty and Barber will find his way into the endzone yet again.
Panthers RB DeShaun Foster (@ ATL): It looks like more of the same ugly committee backfield in Carolina this season, which means you must choose your Panther back wisely on gameday. When the Falcons are on the docket, Foster is your man. Carolina’s starter has only five 100-yard games (regular season) since the start of the 2005 season, and three of them have come against the Falcons.
Browns WR Braylon Edwards (@ OAK): Which Edwards is going to show up on Sunday? The mercurial pout or the play-making stud? Well, know this when you set your lineup for Week Three. Derek Anderson has made four NFL starts in his career. In them, Edwards has four touchdown catches. More than a third of Anderson’s career TD tosses (four of 11) have been hauled in by Edwards. Oakland’s 29th-ranked pass defense certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Raiders WR Ronald Curry (vs. CLE): You might have noticed a few receivers running wild against the Browns last week. Some guy named Chad Johnson racked up 209 receiving yards, two touchdowns and one beer shower, while receiving mate T.J. Houshmanzadeh chipped in with a mere eight catches and two scores of his own. Despite just two catches last week, give Curry — the Raiders’ leading receiver this year and last — another look.
Texans TE Owen Daniels (vs. IND): As you’ll learn in the next section, I’m not wild about the Texans’ offense sans Andre Johnson. However, the one player who has a great opportunity to step into increased production is Daniels, who is second on the team in receiving and has the ability to test the Colts’ cover-2 where it’s vulnerable. It wouldn’t surprise to see Daniels on top of Houston’s receiving ledger in Week Three.
Sit
Cardinals QB Matt Leinart (@ BAL): Week Two was a lot more like it. After a nasty season opener, Leinart rebounded for 299 yards and a score against Seattle at home, but on the road at Baltimore is just about as brutal as it gets. Carson Palmer’s 194 yards and two scores vs. the Ravens was widely considered a fantasy victory, and Leinart isn’t anywhere near Palmer in terms of handling pressure and reading defenses.
Giants QB Eli Manning (@ WAS): For all the shortcomings Eli hears about on a regular basis, he deserves a healthy helping of praise for gutting through an injury that certainly seems like it could have kept him out at least a couple weeks. Manning was adequate on Sunday against the Packers (211 yards, one touchdown), but he has only four passing scores in five career meetings with the Redskins. He’s clearly not healthy, and his receiving corps is also banged up.
Texans RB Ahman Green (vs. IND): With Andre Johnson on the sideline, the Colts’ defense has only rookie Jacoby Jones, veteran Kevin Walter and inactive Andre Davis to threaten them downfield. Something tells me Bob Sanders won’t be playing much deep-halves coverage in this ball game, and Green better prepare for a healthy dose of the Colts’ primary run stopper. With Ron Dayne also in the mix, and an unclear feel for who will see the ball at the stripe, there just isn’t a whole lot of upside with Green this week.
Packers RB DeShawn Wynn (vs. SD): Feeling good about winning the waiver-wire scramble for Wynn? Let me introduce you to Chargers NT Jamal Williams, who has essentially turned the Chargers into an annual beast against the run. Williams sustained an elbow injury vs. the Patriots, but all signs point to him lining up against a Packers front five that has underperformed in the ground game thus far.
Bills WR Lee Evans (@ NE): I’m typically one to favor sticking with your studs, even in the face of busted starts, but Evans’ history against the Pats is just too sorry. In six career tilts with New England, Evans — who has averaged about a touchdown every two games for his career — has zero trips to the endzone with only 13 catches and an average of 40 receiving yards per game. You have to strongly consider your other options.
Eagles WR Reggie Brown (vs. DET): Like Evans, Brown was a standout fantasy performer a year ago, and he was expected to take a step forward in his third season. However, he has shown limited ability to separate from defensive backs pressing him at the line of scrimmage, and his quarterback is either rusty or not healthy enough to be the passer he once was. In either case, I’d much prefer to see the Eagles score a second offensive touchdown before I trot a member of their passing game into my fantasy lineup.
49ers TE Vernon Davis (@ PIT): It’s not going to be easy to put Davis on your bench, not after you reached a couple rounds early to nab everyone’s favorite sleeper. But it would be a huge upset to see Davis break out in the Steel City on Sunday. Not only does Davis have just four catches for 27 yards on the year, but the Niners have yet to cross the stripe through the air. To make matters worse, the Steelers have given up a grand total of 10 points this season.
The last time Houston played the Colts (sans Bob Sanders of course), Dayne had 32 carries 153 yds and 2 TD.
The last time Houston played the Colts (sans Bob Sanders of course), Dayne had 32 carries 153 yds and 2 TD.
I'm in this camp. I believe Houston will do all they can to get Ahman the ball and try to win the time of posession. In PPR he should get lots of screen and dump off's BECAUSE AJ is out. Dayne being sore will also increase his carries. (That being said, he will be on my bench for Jordan unless this back thing flares up Sunday.) 
