Starting Lineups - What's your secret? (1 Viewer)

[Art_VanDalay]

For the life of me, I have consistently over the years picked the "wrong" player each week going with the data, research and conventional wisdom of the week. I get extremely frustrated knowing that if I started X player, I would have won this game and that. It has already happened to me this year and the frustration is causing me to want to walk away and pull my hair out. There are times that I feel with the internet, we have become information overloaded on FF sites and I become paralyzed at times since I can make a valid argument for starting any of my players. How many times do we see the "matchup" advantage not go the way we all expect it to (Mia v. Tenn for one yesterday)? For me, it seems more times than I can recall.

I have thought about trading any backups of value for now on so at least if I lose, it won't be because I picked the wrong players. Depth has always caused me problems with lineups and I am not sure having it is the blessing it appears to be after draft day.

Thus, with all this being said, I am wondering, what are the TOP 3 things that you sharks use to pick between players in your lineup each week? Is it an injury on the opposing defense? Weather? Defensive ranking or YPC average. What is the thing that really pushes you to pick a pretty even player over another? I look forward to reading everyone's responses. Thanks.

 

[s_ezy]

wrong call all the time

i lead my league in points left on the bench

 

[baronson]

i seem to have this problem a lot too, usually early in the season.

i sat Steve Smith and Javon Walker this week because i thought i had so many other options at WR (played Williamson, Colston, RWilliams, and Chad Johnson instead - 3 flex pos). i usually go with the matchup where i think they'll have the most opportunity. with the guys i mentioned above, i thought they all would be playing from behind all game, and thus would have plenty of balls in the air. if i were choosing among RBs, i would choose the guy whose team i would think would be running the ball most often. basically, i go with perceived opportunties. unfortunately, this week it didn't work out. i sat Javon because i had yet to see the denver passing game click, and smith was on his first game back. not to mention, chad may not even be on the field this year and i wouldn't know it. anyway, long story short, i go with who i think will have the ball in his hands most often. you can't score without it.

 

[fsufan]

Last year I made some wrong calls that cost me 3 wins within the first 8 weeks. This year I am staying with my proven players. I am 10- 5 in 5 league.

 

[tangfoot]

For 5 years running, I have had the lowest coaching efficiency in my RTSports league.

I attribute this to my extensively strong bench players and the fact that my leaguemates are so dereft of talent that they have to start the same guys every week.

I have the benefit of depth, therefore make the wrong call most of the time.

 

[Sinrman]

We all face this same dilemna every week. Look at MFL.com and looked at the "Efficiency Rating" at different leagues, and you'll see that very few people ever nail it. Nothing more frustrating then overthinking things, or missing that last minute benching before the games start. It can kill a team.

I wouldn't recommend trading away your depth, just so you aren't faced with difficult decisions. That's admitting that you can't make the tough decisions yourself and you're more willing to turn your team onto autopilot. Trading away your depth would kill your team, as it would anyones. It's a LOOOONG season, and players get injured all the time. No player is guaranteed to be there each and every week (ok, Favre might be the exception).

My suggestion is to keep plugging away. Don't overanalyze things. If you're faced with starting a Javon Walker, who has a lot of talent and some experience, or the "flavor of the week" like Colston or Reggie Williams, you HAVE to go with the more proven players. Don't fall into the trap. Very few times do "flavors of the week" turn into a consistent thing, where you'd want to start them every week.

I hate to say it, but the "always start your studs" definitely holds some water. Don't stray too far away from your top players, or you'll constantly be frustrated...

 

[dagwood]

I used to think this was true as well, but when I went back and really looked at it, about half the time I picked the right guy and half the time I picked the wrong guy.

You just tend to remember the times you picked the wrong guy and forget the times you picked the right guy.

Have a couple and you will forget both. It's a much better solution....

 

[GregR_2]

I think this is one of those topics where people aren't realistic about the situation.

Let's say you're choosing between two players. If you don't get the highest scoring guy, you may not have gotten the best choice. But it still isn't a wrong choice unless the guy you did choose scored below what you expect your team to average.

Same with choosing between 3 players. If it was random you'd expect to not choose the highest guy 2/3 of the time. If your only criteria for sucess is getting the highest guy you should expect failure twice as much as success. As long as the guy you chose scored an amount that gave you an advantage over your opponent, it wasn't a wrong choice. It just wasn't the best.