Startup Keeper Impact for Portis Injury (1 Viewer)

[Pictus Cat]

How far does Portis drop for startup keeper leagues?For the general Portis Injury Opportunity thread, Jeff and Jerk said it better than I could.

This is a great topic by the way.What the Portis situation represents is an imperfect market - meaning that there is value here, but no one is certain what it really is.There has to be a discount, but by how much?If everyone knows that LT2 is a Top 3 back, everyone also knows that somehow getting him at #5 is a bargain.That isn't the case here. Portis could be a steal at 6, or way overvalued.When values are not known or there is differences of opinions, bargains may be had. I'm not sold that there is one on Portis unless he falls out of the Top 10.

I think Jeff's suggestion strikes the best balance between value and risk. You're kidding yourself if you think there is no potential for this injury to be an intermittent season-long problem (think Kevin Jones last year). If you're a risk-taker, bump up the threshold to 7 or 8. If you're risk averse, drop it down to the 13-14 range (second round).One of the FF mantras that you hear repeated quite often is that injuries can happen to everyone. I completely agree. However, injuries are more likely to be a factor when a player is already hurt before the sesaon even begins. Think not just of Portis, but also D.Jax, TO, etc. In my analysis, this increased injury risk must be accounted for by dropping the player -- it's just a question of how much, and that varies as I stated earlier by your risk tolerance.It's true that Portis' injury presents an opportunity. An opportunity for value in getting a Top 5 player several slots later. Also an opportunity for your first round pick to be a season-long headache and underperform the draft slot.

 

[turkishkamel]

shouldnt fall as far as he did last year. i got him at 16 overall in my startup keeper last year.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

shouldnt fall as far as he did last year. i got him at 16 overall in my startup keeper last year.

Of course not; and who cares.

 

[glumpy]

How far does Portis drop for startup keeper leagues?

For the general Portis Injury Opportunity thread, Jeff and Jerk said it better than I could.

This is a great topic by the way.

What the Portis situation represents is an imperfect market - meaning that there is value here, but no one is certain what it really is.

There has to be a discount, but by how much?

If everyone knows that LT2 is a Top 3 back, everyone also knows that somehow getting him at #5 is a bargain.

That isn't the case here. Portis could be a steal at 6, or way overvalued.

When values are not known or there is differences of opinions, bargains may be had. I'm not sold that there is one on Portis unless he falls out of the Top 10.

I think Jeff's suggestion strikes the best balance between value and risk. You're kidding yourself if you think there is no potential for this injury to be an intermittent season-long problem (think Kevin Jones last year). If you're a risk-taker, bump up the threshold to 7 or 8. If you're risk averse, drop it down to the 13-14 range (second round).One of the FF mantras that you hear repeated quite often is that injuries can happen to everyone. I completely agree. However, injuries are more likely to be a factor when a player is already hurt before the sesaon even begins. Think not just of Portis, but also D.Jax, TO, etc. In my analysis, this increased injury risk must be accounted for by dropping the player -- it's just a question of how much, and that varies as I stated earlier by your risk tolerance.

It's true that Portis' injury presents an opportunity. An opportunity for value in getting a Top 5 player several slots later. Also an opportunity for your first round pick to be a season-long headache and underperform the draft slot.

Note the bolded section--I would think that unless you feel like this is a career long issue with Portis then his shoulder separation shouldn't affect his value in a keeper league at all. It's in redrafts where this concern is in play.