Statistics can make you think wrongly (1 Viewer)

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I was in an argument with a couple of guys in my league about a couple of RB's and came upon some stats that made me realize that stats can be misleading or I am just way off on a couple of players.

I am using stats over the last 2 years and just looking at rushing stats alone in this specific instance. Here are their numbers.......

Running back 1..... played in his last 31 games

442 carries, 1860 yards, 17 TD's

Running back 2.... played in his last 32 games

502 carries, 1883 yards, 22 TD's

I will explain my argument later.

 

[JGalligan]

I'll take Michael Turner on one of them for $300 Alex?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I'll take Michael Turner on one of them for $300 Alex?

nope

 

[JGalligan]

For the record, I was seemingly the only one who guessed without utilizing some type of stats website.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

For the record, I was seemingly the only one who guessed without utilizing some type of stats website.

Well, you were way off without it. But I appreciate the no cheating aspect.

 

[JGalligan]

For the record, I was seemingly the only one who guessed without utilizing some type of stats website.

Well, you were way off without it. But I appreciate the no cheating aspect.

Ah haha awesome!I SWEAR I've seen this before and if I remember correctly isn't there some type of twist?

 

[KoolKat]

Is one of them Thomas Jones...No stat aids for me either!!

 

[Buffaloes]

1.) Marion Barber

 

[TheDirtyWord]

RB2 = Lendale?

This appears logical given the low YPC and high TD's with an inordinate amount of carries for that production.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Is one of them Thomas Jones...No stat aids for me either!!

Nope

 

[LionsFan78]

I was in an argument with a couple of guys in my league about a couple of RB's and came upon some stats that made me realize that stats can be misleading or I am just way off on a couple of players.

I am using stats over the last 2 years and just looking at rushing stats alone in this specific instance. Here are their numbers.......

Running back 1..... played in his last 31 games

442 carries, 1860 yards, 17 TD's

Running back 2.... played in his last 32 games

502 carries, 1883 yards, 22 TD's

I will explain my argument later.

I really feel like this is Lendale White. No clue on RB #1

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

1.) Marion Barber

Correct

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

RB2 = Lendale?This appears logical given the low YPC and high TD's with an inordinate amount of carries for that production.

Correct as well

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

The argument I was having was with my league mates about F. Jones vs C. Johnson. I happen to liken F. Jones to C. Johnson quite a bit. I posed the question that why can't F. Jones be as successful as C. Johnson and they simply replied because Barber is much better.

Now I happen to think that Barber is a better RB than White. However, I think it shows that F. Jones could very well be as successful as C. Johnson is with the Titans. What say you?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Is your argument how Lendale needs 60 more carries to be similar to Marion Barber?

 

[JGalligan]

 

[gianmarco]

Here's part of the problem as this adds significant value to one and not the other:

LenDale White receptions over last 2 yrs -- 25

Marion Barber receptions over last 2 yrs -- 96

Chris Johnson had 43 catches for 260 yds. Felix is gonna be hard-pressed to take away that many receptions from Barber.

The 2nd thing is that Tenn is a much more defensive/run oriented team than Dallas which passes significantly more. Thus, both Chris Johnson AND LenDale were able to log in 200+ carries. I don't know if that's possible in Dallas or not.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Here's part of the problem as this adds significant value to one and not the other:LenDale White receptions over last 2 yrs -- 25Marion Barber receptions over last 2 yrs -- 96Chris Johnson had 43 catches for 260 yds. Felix is gonna be hard-pressed to take away that many receptions from Barber.The 2nd thing is that Tenn is a much more defensive/run oriented team than Dallas which passes significantly more. Thus, both Chris Johnson AND LenDale were able to log in 200+ carries. I don't know if that's possible in Dallas or not.

Very good response. It is very apparent that White who went from 20 recetions 2 years ago to 5 (with Johnson in the picture) will not catch passes as C. Johnson is cleary getting the bulk of the receptions.Do you think F. Jones could have a similar chance of passing Barber to get those receptions out of the back field?

 

[PranksterJD]

I've had this question burning every time we bring up Felix, and its a minor hijack but it does go into why I think that Jones can't match Johnson. Either way I'm just not certain of the answer...

When did people get the idea that this kid is going to catch a ton of balls? He was targeted on **two** passes last year in six games. He didn't catch passes often at Arkansas. But here we are, comparing him to guys like Reggie Bush, Jerious Norwood, and now Chris Johnson.

I just don't get it? Where is this "Felix as a receiver" love coming from?

 

[JGalligan]

Here's part of the problem as this adds significant value to one and not the other:LenDale White receptions over last 2 yrs -- 25Marion Barber receptions over last 2 yrs -- 96Chris Johnson had 43 catches for 260 yds. Felix is gonna be hard-pressed to take away that many receptions from Barber.The 2nd thing is that Tenn is a much more defensive/run oriented team than Dallas which passes significantly more. Thus, both Chris Johnson AND LenDale were able to log in 200+ carries. I don't know if that's possible in Dallas or not.

Very good response. It is very apparent that White who went from 20 recetions 2 years ago to 5 (with Johnson in the picture) will not catch passes as C. Johnson is cleary getting the bulk of the receptions.Do you think F. Jones could have a similar chance of passing Barber to get those receptions out of the back field?

Wasn't CJ getting the bulk of... everything towards the end of the season?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

SSSSSSSSSSWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[gianmarco]

SSSSSSSSSSWWWWWWWWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gonna need to alter the title to say either Barber or Felix to catch his attention. Shoot, you can even throw in Addai's name to bring him in even though he's completely unrelated to this.

 

[PranksterJD]

Here's part of the problem as this adds significant value to one and not the other:LenDale White receptions over last 2 yrs -- 25Marion Barber receptions over last 2 yrs -- 96Chris Johnson had 43 catches for 260 yds. Felix is gonna be hard-pressed to take away that many receptions from Barber.The 2nd thing is that Tenn is a much more defensive/run oriented team than Dallas which passes significantly more. Thus, both Chris Johnson AND LenDale were able to log in 200+ carries. I don't know if that's possible in Dallas or not.

The other missing part of this one is LenDale's 3.7 to Marion's 4.2. There was a window of opportunity open for Johnson on several levels, and Felix doesn't have that luxury.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I've had this question burning every time we bring up Felix, and its a minor hijack but it does go into why I think that Jones can't match Johnson. Either way I'm just not certain of the answer...When did people get the idea that this kid is going to catch a ton of balls? He was targeted on **two** passes last year in six games. He didn't catch passes often at Arkansas. But here we are, comparing him to guys like Reggie Bush, Jerious Norwood, and now Chris Johnson.I just don't get it? Where is this "Felix as a receiver" love coming from?

Marion Barber had 18 career receptions in his 3 years at the college level. Sometimes it is not about ability it is about lack of opportunity and the way they were used in an offense.Barber caught 18 balls as a rookie with the Cowboys and then every year he went up18, 23, 44, 52.In college Felix was not hugely involved in the passing game but in 3 years he did have 39 receptions.

 

[PranksterJD]

I've had this question burning every time we bring up Felix, and its a minor hijack but it does go into why I think that Jones can't match Johnson. Either way I'm just not certain of the answer...When did people get the idea that this kid is going to catch a ton of balls? He was targeted on **two** passes last year in six games. He didn't catch passes often at Arkansas. But here we are, comparing him to guys like Reggie Bush, Jerious Norwood, and now Chris Johnson.I just don't get it? Where is this "Felix as a receiver" love coming from?

Marion Barber had 18 career receptions in his 3 years at the college level. Sometimes it is not about ability it is about lack of opportunity and the way they were used in an offense.Barber caught 18 balls as a rookie with the Cowboys and then every year he went up18, 23, 44, 52.In college Felix was not hugely involved in the passing game but in 3 years he did have 39 receptions.

The Barber point is well taken. Also does help that Dallas is a passing team and so Felix ought to improve his receiving just by being in that offense ( or he's probably not gonna last very long ).I guess I'm fine coming around to the fact that he **might** get there, I've just got to be skeptical when people assume that he **will**. Its a long road from his 0.3 targ/gm last year to Chris Johnson's 4.1, even on a passing team.ETA: Looking back, and its a different offense for a large part of his tenure, but even Julius Jones never really came close to Chris Johnson's 60 targets, maxing out at 45 in 2005.

 

[DoubleG]

SSSSSSSSSSWWWWWWWWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gonna need to alter the title to say either Barber or Felix to catch his attention. Shoot, you can even throw in Addai's name to bring him in even though he's completely unrelated to this.

Oh for gosh sakes - someone just PM him already.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

 

[DoubleG]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

Good Lord! Do I have to do everything?!?Dallas = 401Tennessee = 508

 

[TheDirtyWord]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

Good Lord! Do I have to do everything?!?Dallas = 401Tennessee = 508

So how many more rushes did Tennessee have?

 

[Instinctive]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

Good Lord! Do I have to do everything?!?Dallas = 401Tennessee = 508

So how many more rushes did Tennessee have?

Did you really just ask that? Well....508 for tennessee minus 401 for Dallas is...carry the one...107. That was tough math.Anyway, Let's remember that Barber needs ot be kept fresh, TO is gone, and Dallas has no real #2 receiver. Felix is one of their best weapons. He's a playmaker, and his best runs were aorund the end and in space. This is where people think he gains receptions, screens and dumpoffs are a way to get a RB the ball IN SPACE. Felix won't match Chris Johnson because he simply isn't as good. Also, Dallas has a defense nowhere near as good as TEN's, so they'll be behind more. What I would like to see is Felix in the wildcat..............................

 

[rzrback77]

All three of Dallas RBs are fairly good at catching the ball. Tennessee has only one that can catch. I heard a rumor today that the Cowboys are calling their version of the wildcat the razorback. Is that because Felix Jones is going to be running it or will he be in the backfield with Matt Jones running it?

 

[PranksterJD]

All three of Dallas RBs are fairly good at catching the ball. Tennessee has only one that can catch. I heard a rumor today that the Cowboys are calling their version of the wildcat the razorback. Is that because Felix Jones is going to be running it or will he be in the backfield with Matt Jones running it?

Still waiting for the reason people think this.

 

[rzrback77]

Felix Jones caught 8 as a college freshman, then 15 as a sophmore and 16 as a junior averaging about 10 ypc. Arkansas did not throw much at all and while he was at Arkansas, his RB teammates were Peyton Hillis an excellent receiver out of the backfield and McFadden who was also good.

Personally, I think that Jones was so gifted as a runner and their team had plenty of other receiving options that the Cowboys did not need to use Jones in that manner. He did catch 67% of his targets last season though.

 

[PranksterJD]

Felix Jones caught 8 as a college freshman, then 15 as a sophmore and 16 as a junior averaging about 10 ypc. Arkansas did not throw much at all and while he was at Arkansas, his RB teammates were Peyton Hillis an excellent receiver out of the backfield and McFadden who was also good.

Personally, I think that Jones was so gifted as a runner and their team had plenty of other receiving options that the Cowboys did not need to use Jones in that manner. He did catch 67% of his targets last season though.

As above, I'm willing to say that he **might** be a good receiver if given the opportunity. What I want to know is why people think he **is**. 39 passes in 3 years is not exactly convincing, especially when its not that Arkansas didn't pass, but that all those passes went to Hillis. All the Razorback history tells me is that their staff and quarterbacks didn't think that Felix could catch as well as McFadden or Hillis. Not really a glowing recommendation for him as a receiving back in the NFL.To be fair, Felix didn't get a whole lot of opportunity to prove himself last year, but that again doesn't convince me that he's a good receiver. I was actually going to give him a better margin, as FBG has him catching 100% of his targets last year. However, using that stat is as useless as the OP leaving off YPC when comparing Barber to White, since 100% of his targets is still only 2 catches.

You know what other backs caught over 60% of their passes last year? Michael Turner, LaRon McClain, and Ryan Grant. Anyone here about to start proclaiming one of those dudes as the next Reggie Bush? Tim Hightower caught a higher percentage than Steven Jackson. Are we calling him a more elusive back?

I'm not trying to pick, but it seems like people are assuming that Felix can catch because most backs with his running style can. I just don't see any evidence supporting that theory yet.

 

[Bri]

The 2nd thing is that Tenn is a much more defensive/run oriented team than Dallas which passes significantly more. Thus, both Chris Johnson AND LenDale were able to log in 200+ carries. I don't know if that's possible in Dallas or not.

I don't think it is. Dallas has been adding some Wildcat formation and while that's a good move I applaud with Crayton around....where's the commitment? I'd like to see them commit to running or defense or both(as you may have been alluding too) I'd love to see a debate wondering if they could run 600 times with those three runningbacks. The passing game would open up from there-Witten would still be great and productive. I'd like to see them add enough DL that we wonder if anyone will get 100 yards rushing against them. I'm not really sure what this team is committed to doing.Jerry, and some of the players, just seem committed to getting in the paper.

 

[DoubleG]

Felix Jones caught 8 as a college freshman, then 15 as a sophmore and 16 as a junior

8+15+16 =39 in 3 years...which is exactly the same number Lendale White has in 3 years in the pros. Irony can be so ironic sometimes.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

Good Lord! Do I have to do everything?!?Dallas = 401Tennessee = 508

So how many more rushes did Tennessee have?

Did you really just ask that? Well....508 for tennessee minus 401 for Dallas is...carry the one...107. That was tough math.Anyway, Let's remember that Barber needs ot be kept fresh, TO is gone, and Dallas has no real #2 receiver. Felix is one of their best weapons. He's a playmaker, and his best runs were aorund the end and in space. This is where people think he gains receptions, screens and dumpoffs are a way to get a RB the ball IN SPACE. Felix won't match Chris Johnson because he simply isn't as good. Also, Dallas has a defense nowhere near as good as TEN's, so they'll be behind more. What I would like to see is Felix in the wildcat..............................

I guess some people have dry humor issues...

 

[Caveman_Nick]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

Good Lord! Do I have to do everything?!?Dallas = 401Tennessee = 508

So how many more rushes did Tennessee have?

Did you really just ask that? Well....508 for tennessee minus 401 for Dallas is...carry the one...107. That was tough math.Anyway, Let's remember that Barber needs ot be kept fresh, TO is gone, and Dallas has no real #2 receiver. Felix is one of their best weapons. He's a playmaker, and his best runs were aorund the end and in space. This is where people think he gains receptions, screens and dumpoffs are a way to get a RB the ball IN SPACE. Felix won't match Chris Johnson because he simply isn't as good. Also, Dallas has a defense nowhere near as good as TEN's, so they'll be behind more. What I would like to see is Felix in the wildcat..............................

I guess some people have dry humor issues...

I thought it was funny.

 

[rzrback77]

As a follow up, Darren McFadden only caught 46 passes in his three years at Arkansas and nobody downplays his receiving abilities. I think that Felix also caught the ball well at Arkansas and he was always explosive with the ball in his hands. It was more of a way to keep Hillis involved. He was a stud his freshman year, but then was forced to a full-back third RB role with both Jones and McFadden ahead of him for the rest of his career. By the way, he caught 118 passes in 4 years and he has great hands, but just was not as explosive and never got many rushing opportunities after this freshman year.

 

[DoubleG]

Did you really just ask that? Well....508 for tennessee minus 401 for Dallas is...carry the one...107. That was tough math.Anyway, Let's remember that Barber needs ot be kept fresh, TO is gone, and Dallas has no real #2 receiver. Felix is one of their best weapons. He's a playmaker, and his best runs were aorund the end and in space. This is where people think he gains receptions, screens and dumpoffs are a way to get a RB the ball IN SPACE. Felix won't match Chris Johnson because he simply isn't as good. Also, Dallas has a defense nowhere near as good as TEN's, so they'll be behind more. What I would like to see is Felix in the wildcat..............................

I guess some people have dry humor issues...

I thought it was funny.

Me too. Even response was - especially the "carry the one" part - as there is no carrying in subtraction, and in this particular math problem there was no borrowing either.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

How many rushes for Dallas and Tenn last year?

Good Lord! Do I have to do everything?!?Dallas = 401

Tennessee = 508

So how many more rushes did Tennessee have?

Did you really just ask that? Well....508 for tennessee minus 401 for Dallas is...carry the one...107. That was tough math.Anyway, Let's remember that Barber needs ot be kept fresh, TO is gone, and Dallas has no real #2 receiver. Felix is one of their best weapons. He's a playmaker, and his best runs were aorund the end and in space. This is where people think he gains receptions, screens and dumpoffs are a way to get a RB the ball IN SPACE.

Felix won't match Chris Johnson because he simply isn't as good. Also, Dallas has a defense nowhere near as good as TEN's, so they'll be behind more. What I would like to see is Felix in the wildcat..............................

How do we know this for sure again?

 

[switz]

SSSSSSSSSSWWWWWWWWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

ZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gonna need to alter the title to say either Barber or Felix to catch his attention. Shoot, you can even throw in Addai's name to bring him in even though he's completely unrelated to this.

Oh for gosh sakes - someone just PM him already.

gianmarco can't get enough of me he stalks me in every thread, and then when I don't pipe up in a thread he's calling for me

As for the topic at hand... Barber's better than White, but not by as much as Barber fans would like to think.

Felix Jones is better than Chris Johnson, but no one here will admit it.

It's interesting that Jones had nearly as many receptions his final college season as Barber had his ENTIRE college career, yet people want to love Barber's receiving ability and call into question Jones? Ridiculous.

Anyone who has SEEN Jones play, knows he is a good receiver... Barber gets most of his receptions as little dumpoffs, whereas Jones actually ran some routes in college and caught some long balls in stride. The difference in their receiving ability is night and day where Jones is a good receiver period, and Barber is a good receiver as a runningback.

The fact Barber has had as many receptions as he has the last few years should only encourage people to estimate Jones receptions for this season to be even higher. Barber's career YPR is 7.4, Jones in college put up 9.8 YPR

 

[switz]

Felix won't match Chris Johnson because he simply isn't as good.

Based on?In college, CJ3 averaged 0.6 YPR better receiving

In college, Jones averaged 2.9 YPC better rushing

In college, CJ3 rushed in four years for a mere 26 yards more than Felix did in three years

Felix Jones faced much better defenses throughout his college career than CJ3 as well

Felix Jones was drafted before CJ3

In the NFL, CJ3 averaged 1.0 YPR better than Jones

In the NFL, Felix Jones average 4 YPC better than CJ3

Is CJ3 a better receiver than Jones, yeah, by a little. Is Jones a better runner than CJ3? Yeah, by a mile!

As already mentioned, TEN is a better running team in general than DAL, so CJ3 is in a better position to put up better rushing numbers, yet on a per carry basis he didn't.

 

[gianmarco]

SSSSSSSSSSWWWWWWWWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gonna need to alter the title to say either Barber or Felix to catch his attention. Shoot, you can even throw in Addai's name to bring him in even though he's completely unrelated to this.

Oh for gosh sakes - someone just PM him already.

gianmarco can't get enough of me he stalks me in every thread, and then when I don't pipe up in a thread he's calling for me

Hate to burst your bubble chief, but you may want to rethink your statement. I had already replied in this thread before you were even mentioned. And when you were mentioned, it wasn't by me. I simply responded to the person that had. You're not even remotely close enough to being important enough for me to consider stalking you if that was something I bothered to do. There's a difference between "stalking" and posting to/about someone who has become notorious for his illogical and extremely slanted viewpoints about particular players. There's a reason why your name comes up frequently involving any discussion of Addai, Felix Jones, and Barber. And it's not me.Good day, sir.

 

[rzrback77]

I believe that it is not yet obvious that Chris Johnson is better than Felix Jones. I do not believe as staunchly as Switz, but it is possible and most here do not even consider the possibility.

 

[jurb26]

I believe that it is not yet obvious that Chris Johnson is better than Felix Jones. I do not believe as staunchly as Switz, but it is possible and most here do not even consider the possibility.

I could care less is Jones is better than Johnson or vice versa. Jones isn't a starter and Johnson is. Jones doesn't seem to be the best RB on his team and Johnson does.

 

[mggoilers]

Used the basic premise of the thread to poke at the Barber owner in our keeper league. This email to the league, and follow-up phone call had him clearly rattled. Created some doubt in his mind.

Running Back 1 is Marion Barber

Running Back 2 is Lendale White

Both RB’s are part-time RB’s, and are primary Goal Line backs. Both have value in all types of leagues.

Barber has never had over 238 carries in a season, and never reached a 1000 yards rushing.

White had a 1000 yards season in 2007 and carried the load for 16 games. He saw a reduction in carries in 2008 with Chris Johnson.

Barber could not stay healthy last year when given a shot at the full load(lol), but given a healthy Choice, Felix Jones…do we expect his carries to increase in 2009?

Does Marion Barber in 2009 become what Lendale White was in 2008…a complement to a younger, faster, more talented back?

After 3 seasons, White has become a back that shares the load.

After 4 season, Barber has become a back that shares the load.

2009 should be no different.

he argued barber was injured in 2008

Barber Owner is trying to argue that being injured last year actually makes Barber a better player than White? Barber vs. White is closer than you think, and their roles are very similar.

We should all update our rankings and projections to give increases for missed games. (joke)

Barber is nice, but they have 3 RB’s to carry the load because one can’t do it. There is no arguing that point. As Barber owner, you should be more aware of this point than anyone else.

Barber proved when given the opportunity he could not do it for a 16 game season. White did it for a full 16 games in 2007. We would love to have either one as a RB3/RB4 in 2009.

Barber was drafted in the 4th round, and has overachieved.

White was drafted in the 2nd round, tells me he has more talent…he actually slipped. He graded out with 1st round talent just fat.

Both are part-time backs. Owner beware.

He likes to reference the fact that Marion is a Barbarian. I pointed out he missed time due to a little pinky toe.

Pinky, Pinky...Here Pinky, Pinky.

This initial post has given me great fodder to rail on the Barber owner, thanks.