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Stay away from Carson Palmer (1 Viewer)

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Some guys are pretty high on Carson Palmer. Others are a bit low. I considered myself in the middle, until well, this: SEP. 12 at New York Jets, 1:00 pm SEP. 19 Miami, 8:30 pm SEP. 26 Baltimore, 1:00 pm OCT. 03 at Pittsburgh, 1:00 pm OCT. 10 BYE WEEK OCT. 17 at Cleveland, 1:00 pm OCT. 25 Denver, 9:00 pm OCT. 31 at Tennessee, 1:00 pm NOV. 07 Dallas, 1:00 pm NOV. 14 at Washington, 4:05 pm NOV. 21 Pittsburgh, 1:00 pm NOV. 28 Cleveland, 1:00 pm DEC. 05 at Baltimore, 1:00 pm DEC. 12 at New England, 1:00 pm DEC. 19 Buffalo, 1:00 pm DEC. 26 New York Giants, 1:00 pm JAN. 02 at Philadelphia, 1:00 pmI'm working on my QBBC article, and I've assigned point values to all the defenses. Suffice it to say, the Bengals schedule finished not just last--not even dead last--but below the surface dead last. They scored "165" points; the next lowest team scored "204" points; the NFL average is "264" points. Obviously, just looking at this schedule shows it to be a killer. I count three "easy" games all year: The Titans, the Jets and the Giants. And to be fair, the Jets actually were pretty good against the pass last year.When you draft someone like Palmer, he's NOT going to be your QB1. You're drafting him either as a backup, or as part of a committee. Suffice it to say, I don't exactly see too many times where I'll be itching to start Carson Palmer if I have a QBBC.Thoughts on that schedule?And yes, I know many think schedule is overrated--but this is by far the hardest schedule (according to my points system--which will be unveiled in the QBBC article) of any QB.

 
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I am very worried about this actually. When Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule first came out earlier in the Spring, I saw how tough Cinci's schedule was. In fact, I think you have to worry about Chadd Johnson's numbers a bit too as the WR's SoS for Cinci is very tough.The only thing we can hope for is that some of those defenses won't be as tough vs. the pass this year. I know that we sometimes can make a mountain out of a mole hill at times so I don't want to pass up players due to defenses from last year.I'll say this, their schedule will definately keep me from reaching for their players. If they fall into my lap, I'll take them.

 
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As if I needed another reason to drop him, he was already pretty far down on the radar. Now he's off the scope. :X

 
Point taken. I had Palmer penciled in as a sleeper this year. I think the Bengals have one of the top WR groups in the league and a solid running game to boot. With a year of observing I figured Carson would be a solid pick....but you are right, that schedule is merciless. For a guy who will be somewhat still trying to learn on the fly, those defenses will be a rude awakening. Good stuff! I've knocked him down from QB19 to QB23, right behind Maddox and Harrington.

 
The Bengals also face a tough schedule in reference to running the football in 2004. I am not targeting any of their players period, unless they become values and fall to me as such. I can't believe that there are so many people buying into the Carson Palmer hype this season. IMO, the organization is taking a step backwards in 2004, even if Kitna takes over at some point during the season.

 
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Palmer is the definition of overhyped. Sure, that word is "overused" here, but it really does apply to this situation.I don't care what pick he was. I need to see something. I wouldn't draft him, period.

 
I actually think the kid has every chance in the world this year to shine. Solid O-Line, great WR's, and a couple of highly talented yet unproven runners in Rudi and Perry. Good players score despite tough defenses. Besides, ever thought that a tough defense will cause the guy to have to chuck the ball more. Lots of late game yards, and with an absolute playmaker in Chad Johnson, he is going to be just fine.....Don't take him off your sleeper list. Besides, we see every year how tough defenses fade and out of no where bad teams all of the sudden have a dominating D. New England? Carolina? Hell, even the Rams went from like 26th to top 10 in team D in a single offseason....

 
Palmer is the definition of overhyped. Sure, that word is "overused" here, but it really does apply to this situation.I don't care what pick he was. I need to see something. I wouldn't draft him, period.
Would you draft him as QB3?
 
I actually think the kid has every chance in the world this year to shine. Solid O-Line, great WR's, and a couple of highly talented yet unproven runners in Rudi and Perry. Good players score despite tough defenses. Besides, ever thought that a tough defense will cause the guy to have to chuck the ball more. Lots of late game yards, and with an absolute playmaker in Chad Johnson, he is going to be just fine.....Don't take him off your sleeper list. Besides, we see every year how tough defenses fade and out of no where bad teams all of the sudden have a dominating D. New England? Carolina? Hell, even the Rams went from like 26th to top 10 in team D in a single offseason....
Hey Fanatic,My system factors in those garbage points you get against good Ds. I didn't rank the Ds by good Ds, but rather "Ds you least want your QB to face." For this reason, someone like Cleveland ranks very high. The Jets don't have a great D, but they were in the top ten for QB FPs allowed.
 
I really do not pay much attention to teams schedules when drafting a fantasy team. If I feel the player has the talent and supporting cast to succeed, I think that will override any schedule issues (which can be a flakey stat). I do think Carson Palmer has the talent and supporting cast to succeed, but I do not feel it would be wise to draft a first year QB as your #1.

 
You mean the fact that he's a 2nd year QB with no game experience isn't enough to avoid?I'm thinking that if he's ready to perform this year, he'll get the job done regardless of the schedule. If this year is a learning experience that he struggles through, the tough schedule will be a good excuse for us to fall back on.

 
You mean the fact that he's a 2nd year QB with no game experience isn't enough to avoid?I'm thinking that if he's ready to perform this year, he'll get the job done regardless of the schedule. If this year is a learning experience that he struggles through, the tough schedule will be a good excuse for us to fall back on.
My opinion on Palmer is that he must be better than Kitna. Wouldn't Coach Lewis do what's best for his team, considering they barely missed the playoffs last year?It only makes sense to me, if Kitna were the better player right now, he'd be playing. Coach Lewis's quick decision that Palmer is this year's starter proves to me that he's good to go. If during the season Palmer is failing miserably, it will definately be a big negative in Lewis's young head coaching career. At this point, I'm willing to trust him.Sure the schedule doesn't help, but Cinci's going to move the ball regardless. It's their defense I worry about.
 
That is a bummer dOOd...All things being equal I think Palmer is better than Kitna. But not under these circumstances.

 
Palmer is the definition of overhyped. Sure, that word is "overused" here, but it really does apply to this situation.

I don't care what pick he was. I need to see something. I wouldn't draft him, period.
Would you draft him as QB3?
I don't play in any leagues that would allow that. So, I can't speak for it. Additionally, I'm only in redrafts (two leagues total...$500 and a $600 -- as such, enough for me).Anyway, I have been on record as not being a believer in Palmer, from the beginning. He sucked early on at SC...then, shot through the roof when his surrounding cast dominated. The Heisman was only the result of a perfect situation, setting up for him. I digress; I'm not going to go into that. It doesn't really matter, anyway.

You need only to look at how well the YOUNG Matt Leinart did at SC, in Carson's place. The TEAM, and O.C., helped Palmer tremendously.

Oh, sure, that many NFL scouts can't be THAT wrong. He has skills. But, as far as FF is concerned, drafting an unproven, young Q.B. is typically a total reach...with far less risk being had on the WW.

I won't touch him, until he does something in the NFL...period.

 
I recently picked him up at 13.2 in a 6player keeper league, 12 teams. I feel pretty good about getting him there, no matter if he plays the Ravens every week. :yes:

 
Color me as someone who thinks strength of schedule is overrated. However, Chase has a point in noting that this schedule projects to be demonstrably more difficult than any other. As someone who's fairly high on Palmer, this gives me pause. Another risk here is that Palmer, through no fault of his own (because the schedule is so darn hard) struggles out of the gate and Kitna is inserted. This warrants further consideration as a reason to knock Palmer down a peg or two.Interesting stuff Chase.

 
Yeah J...I know we've discussed SOS before. I just can't believe HOW hard this schedule really is. I ranked QB opposing schedule the exact same way I ranked Def opposing schedule--by assigning a 1-32 rating on the difficulty of each opponent.On the defensive side, the high # was 314, and the low # was 202.For the QBs, the high # was 328--and the second lowest # was 204. I literally calculated by hand just to make sure excel wasn't broken. 165 is a very, very difficult schedule number. It says that on average, you are facing the tenth toughest team for a QB to score fantasy points again. That really puts Palmer behind the eight ball. (On the other hand, 320 means you're facing on average the 20th toughest opponent--quite a bit difference).I think you bring up a good point about "apparent" schedule difficulty regarding Palmer. I think this COULD lead to him getting benched. If the whole offense struggles, it could lead to Chris Perry getting some added time as well, in place of Rudi;)This is certainly something I want to follow once the season begins--and I'll be able to watch their first game in person :football:

 
Wow that is a brutal schedule. I will however say that Cinci/Palmer should be good to torch both Pitt and Clev at least once next year. Mark it down. Niether team plays very good pass D nor do I have any reason to expect that to change this year.

 
Chase Stuart is a well respected poster here and it is clear that he has done a ton of work on his SOS.I firmly believe that SOS is overrated. Therefore, I believe that we should bump this at the end of the year. Since Chase has probably done as good a job as anyone on SOS and because Palmer has far and away the toughest QB schedule according to him(its not even close!), then this should make for a good test regarding the importance of SOS. I'm willing to bet that at the end of the year, this schedule doesn't look that tough at all vs the pass.

 
Wow that is a brutal schedule. I will however say that Cinci/Palmer should be good to torch both Pitt and Clev at least once next year. Mark it down. Niether team plays very good pass D nor do I have any reason to expect that to change this year.
Hey Jurb,The Browns let up 3,049 passing yards and just 13 TDs. That's 100 less yards and six less TDs than say, the Ravens let up.The Browns run D is awful, and that's certainly a part of why their pass D looks so good. The Steelers Pass D wasn't too bad either last year.
 
Chase Stuart is a well respected poster here and it is clear that he has done a ton of work on his SOS.I firmly believe that SOS is overrated. Therefore, I believe that we should bump this at the end of the year. Since Chase has probably done as good a job as anyone on SOS and because Palmer has far and away the toughest QB schedule according to him(its not even close!), then this should make for a good test regarding the importance of SOS. I'm willing to bet that at the end of the year, this schedule doesn't look that tough at all vs the pass.
Hey jwvdcw,Is something overrated if nearly everyone says "Strength of Schedule is overrated"?I'm not a huge believer in SOS for studs--but I think for mid-level players, it's more important than many "sharks" let themselves think. For those QBs in the 12-24 range, SOS can be a pretty big deal--and it's the foundation for QBBC.I agree, I'm curious to see how this schedule looks at the end of the year.
 
Can you post your previous QB strength of schedules based on the same criteria? I'm curious to see how things turned out.

 
I recently picked him up at 13.2 in a 6player keeper league, 12 teams. I feel pretty good about getting him there, UNLESS he plays the Ravens every week.  :yes:
I have edited your post for you. It badly needed it.You're welcome.

:rolleyes:
REEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRR.......
:rotflmao: Actually, just a little bored. But, the sun just broke, so I'm about to bail. :excited:

Anyway, it was a bit ridiculous. With the added :yes: smilie, as if to say he's serious about having Palmer in the most difficult of situations, wouldn't concern him in the least. :rolleyes: Please.

The last shot of the victorious cat, hamen' it up for the pic, is hilarious. :rotflmao:

 
Hey Jurb,The Browns let up 3,049 passing yards and just 13 TDs.  That's 100 less yards and six less TDs than say, the Ravens let up.The Browns run D is awful, and that's certainly a part of why their pass D looks so good. The Steelers Pass D wasn't too bad either last year.
Yeah your right, the numbers are not all that bad. However, like you implied in your post, there is a big difference between playing good pass D and teams simply not needing to pass in order to beat you. These are tough division games and I can't see any out of hand scores, thus the games will be tight. Cinci will most likely be throwing the ball a good bit at least once vs. each team I'm willing to bet. They lit up Clev and Pitt both for 3 tds passing in a game last year IIRC and I can very easily see it happening agian this year as well.
 
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Color me as someone who thinks strength of schedule is overrated. However, Chase has a point in noting that this schedule projects to be demonstrably more difficult than any other. As someone who's fairly high on Palmer, this gives me pause. Another risk here is that Palmer, through no fault of his own (because the schedule is so darn hard) struggles out of the gate and Kitna is inserted. This warrants further consideration as a reason to knock Palmer down a peg or two.Interesting stuff Chase.
"SOS is Overrated" Booster here, as well.Although, when it's that large a difference, I'll take a peek, sure.That being said -- and given my previously mentioned Palmer thoughts -- I will use this info for the realization that Chad Johnson will not be playing for me this year. :shock: He's already VERY high, and the notch that I had already knocked him down, due to Palmer, now goes down one more. No worries.
 
Can you post your previous QB strength of schedules based on the same criteria? I'm curious to see how things turned out.
Nope.This is the first year I've done it. However, I don't think opposing Ds are nearly as difficult to predict as people tend to believe. It doesn't take a genius to figure out having Palmer play the Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins,etc. is bad for his stats.Palmer's schedule is just too hard for me to endorse him--I just think there are about 20 other guys that have a better chance of finishing in the top 12 this year than him. Palmer's currently 17 on my expert rankings--he'll move down to 21 next time I bet.
 
Is something overrated if nearly everyone says "Strength of Schedule is overrated"?
:thumbup:
Disagree.I don't play with people on these boards. And I find, yearly, that people do, in fact, consistently talk about schedule, especially for RB's and QB's...and even moreso for PLAYOFF MATCHUPS, which arguably have even less relevance, given the time/attrition in between.Anyway, for the typical FFer, I believe it is, indeed, overrated. :yes:
 
Is something overrated if nearly everyone says "Strength of Schedule is overrated"?
:thumbup:
Disagree.I don't play with people on these boards. And I find, yearly, that people do, in fact, consistently talk about schedule, especially for RB's and QB's...and even moreso for PLAYOFF MATCHUPS, which arguably have even less relevance, given the time/attrition in between.Anyway, for the typical FFer, I believe it is, indeed, overrated. :yes:
I got palmer in the 13th round recently, which is DYNOMITE. I feel pretty good about getting him there, no matter if he plays the Ravens every week. :yes:Ps. :yes: Oh and before I forget :yes: :yes:
 
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Just last week, I had to defend not having Palmer on my top 25 QB list in another thread. However, I stated that I liked him in the same way as McCown and Carr, potential sleepers who might come on as the season progressed. I am the type of owner who will typically take two of the QBs in the 8-16 ranked area in a 12 team league, and spend a late pick on a potential breakout. Marc Bulger had been that player for me a couple times. With the schedule that Palmer faces, he can count on not being on any of my squads in '04, even as a #3. I like a longshot, but those are some serious odds.

 
If John Kitna were starting for Cincy, how much would you downgrade him based on SOS? I'm assuming he would get bumped a few notches, but I doubt many people would scratch him off their lists entirely.

Seeing as how Marv Lewis (who knows more about Palmer's maturation than anybody posting in this thread, unless one of you happens to be Carson Palmer) apparently thinks Palmer is actually better than Kitna, I don't see why this should knock Palmer off anybody's sleeper lists. SOS doesn't change the fact that he still has a pretty good line, fantastic WRs, and a balanced offense. I don't care if San Diego plays Central Pasedina High 16 times this year, I still wouldn't draft Phillip Rivers. SOS is one part of the analysis, but there's so much more that still runs in Palmer's favor.

I suppose if I'm going with a QBBC approach I might be less inclined to include Palmer in a platoon than before, but not by much.

 
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My opinion on Palmer is that he must be better than Kitna. Wouldn't Coach Lewis do what's best for his team, considering they barely missed the playoffs last year?It only makes sense to me, if Kitna were the better player right now, he'd be playing. Coach Lewis's quick decision that Palmer is this year's starter proves to me that he's good to go. If during the season Palmer is failing miserably, it will definately be a big negative in Lewis's young head coaching career. At this point, I'm willing to trust him.
:hophead: Sure... right... the fact that the Bengals are paying him $15,000,000 in 2004 has nothing to do with it. Lewis served the starting quarterback job up to Palmer on a silver platter. No training camp battle, just outright "gave" it to him.
 
My opinion on Palmer is that he must be better than Kitna. Wouldn't Coach Lewis do what's best for his team, considering they barely missed the playoffs last year?It only makes sense to me, if Kitna were the better player right now, he'd be playing. Coach Lewis's quick decision that Palmer is this year's starter proves to me that he's good to go. If during the season Palmer is failing miserably, it will definately be a big negative in Lewis's young head coaching career. At this point, I'm willing to trust him.
:hophead: Sure... right... the fact that the Bengals are paying him $15,000,000 in 2004 has nothing to do with it. Lewis served the starting quarterback job up to Palmer on a silver platter. No training camp battle, just outright "gave" it to him.
So your argument is that Marvin Lewis, who is in a career with about the least amount of job security imaginable, has deliberately decided to play his worst player at the most important position for financial reasons?Isn't it just barely possible that Lewis knows what he's doing?
 
The funny thing is that, schedule of strength is partly based on a teams improvement offensively, and partly on the opponents D-improvement. But we all know that defense is the least predictable from season to season (take out consistent defenses like baltimore etc). So all this noise regarding bengals SOS is a bit premature at this point IMO.Another thing to consider...put Kitna back in in place of Palmer, how will they do this year? I think alot of the staff members FBG are afraid to put their reputation online and ranking Palmer down is the safe thing to do.

 
So your argument is that Marvin Lewis, who is in a career with about the least amount of job security imaginable, has deliberately decided to play his worst player at the most important position for financial reasons?Isn't it just barely possible that Lewis knows what he's doing?
I'm not saying that Marvin Lewis is an idiot. However, who is to say that the Bengals owner Mike Brown isn't behind the scenes pulling the strings on this one? IMO, if Mike Brown is spending $15,000,000 bucks on a commodity, then he wants to see that commodity put to work.
 
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So your argument is that Marvin Lewis, who is in a career with about the least amount of job security imaginable, has deliberately decided to play his worst player at the most important position for financial reasons?
Financial pseudo-reasons.1. It's not Lewis's money.2. It's the owner's money, but playing Palmer over Kitna (or vice-versa) doesn't save the owner a dime anyway.
 
So your argument is that Marvin Lewis, who is in a career with about the least amount of job security imaginable, has deliberately decided to play his worst player at the most important position for financial reasons?Isn't it just barely possible that Lewis knows what he's doing?
I'm not saying that Marvin Lewis is an idiot. However, who is to say that the Bengals owner Mike Brown isn't behind the scenes pulling the strings on this one? IMO, if Mike Brown is spending $15,000,000 bucks on a commodity, then he wants to see that commodity put to work.
Well, okay. If it's Mike Brown that you're accusing of being an idiot, I won't argue with you. ;) Seriously though, with the weapons available in Cincy, even an average QB (Kitna) can put up some quality fantasy numbers. Palmer doesn't have to be the second coming of Peyton Manning to be successful in this offense. He just has to not be a flop. Given that none of us have seen him play in a real game yet, we don't know that he won't flop, hence the risk. But as a QB2 or a cog in a QBBC, he still comes with a lot of upside IMO.
 
2. It's the owner's money, but playing Palmer over Kitna (or vice-versa) doesn't save the owner a dime anyway.
The Bengals would be admitting Palmer was a bust if he doesn't start this year. I mean come on now, get real... the player (Leftwich) taken after him in the draft already has a year as a starter under his belt. If you owned a corporation and were compensating an employee $15,000,000 a year, would you want to walk by his desk and find him playing solitaire on the PC? Gimme a break... everything is about money in the NFL, whether you wish to believe it or not.
 
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People who say SOS is overrated aren't using it correctly.
I agree with this 100%. I am not saying you base a final decision off of it but it should surely be FACTORED into your evaluation of a player. When it comes down to the basics of fantasy football, you have 1 game a week for your player to have the potential to shine. And I guess that potential is what the SOS really looks at. Having an unfavorable matchup each week doesn't mean you won't put up points, it just means its going to make it a little tougher for those fantasy points to come. I think SOS is less important with studs because their game is elevated no matter who they are playing but with mid level guys I think some of them need good matchups to excel. Now the thing I focus on here, not so much as they are last, is how much the difference is between them and the next closest team. Now in regards to Carson Palmer I break down his positives and negatives as this:PositivesOffensive LineSolid RB that d's will respectWide ReceiversNegativesInexperienceProven BackupScheduleNow like someone mentioned before, just how will this SOS impact Palmer's development? If he struggles will he be yanked in favor of Kitna? This is a team with lots of weapons on O and they were on the verge of the playoffs last year. I guess you have to wonder how much of a step back (if there is one at all) is the team willing to take to work Palmer into the offense.
 
when was the last time a rookie or 1st year starting qb averaged 224 pass yds and 1.625 tds a game? culpepper?, manning?thats what he needs to post kitna-esque(first time for that word) #s from last season. are we putting palmer in the same class as future HOFers culpepper and manning already?iam notat least let him tear it up in the preseason :rolleyes:

 
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The Bengals would be admitting Palmer was a bust if he doesn't start this year.
Admitting it to whom? I've never met a rational person who believes that if a QB doesn't start in his second year, he's a bust. (McNair and Pennington weren't busts.) Besides, whether Palmer ends up being a bust or not has nothing to do with "admitting" anything; so I don't see how that's relevant.
If you owned a corporation and were compensating an employee $15,000,000 a year, would you want to walk by his desk and find him playing solitaire on the PC?
Depends on what gives us the best chance to win.
 
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when was the last time a rookie or 1st year starting qb averaged 224 pass yds and 1.625 tds a game? culpepper?, manning?thats what he needs to post kitna-esque(first time for that word) #s from last season. are we putting palmer in the same class as future HOFers culpepper and manning already?iam notat least let him tear it up in the preseason :rolleyes:
There we go!
 
Every shark makes a couple "gut" calls every season. Projections based , not so much on trends and stats, but on instinct . Palmer is shaping up as one of my "gut" calls this year. Mind you, I have some facts to back this up. The outstanding WR depth with a healthy Kelly Washington back (a BIG guy with speed who ,if he stays healthy,will stretch the field even more!) A North -South running game wiith depth that will draw safeties in early in games further opening the passing lanes. A decent (if not deep) o-line helps. I see this offense as fool-proof as they get which would be QB freindly against good defenses even if it didn't have a strong-armed QB like Palmer. He has Kitna as a tutor also. Palmer may come out slow, but this offense has too many weapons (including a nice return game!) to see disaster. If Palmer's there in rounds 12+ I'm goin for him. He'd be a guy with a chance to come on strong against any team once he gets his feet wet. Seems to me (at least offensively) as a situation similar to New England when Brady took over. N.E. plays some tough d's also!

 
This is a Fantasy Football board, right? It's about the stats. Palmer may be able to take advantage of a good receiving corps and a very solid O-Line. He may be able to even put up W's, a-la Tom Brady.But no way does Marv Lewis let loose the leash on Palmer to take big chances against those defenses. If the Bengals are in a close game, they will run and run and run some more. Only in a blowout will Palmer be called upon to hurl the ball, and frankly, if the Bengals are on the wrong side of a late game blowout a couple times, Palmer won't be the starter and this will be a moot discussion.

 

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