Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Steve Breaston Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Aardvarks]

I'm surprised Breaston's thread didn't get more action.

Ok, I'll bite.

Breaston, to me, is one of the more fascinating mid-round picks of Fantasy 2010. He's one of those pure sleepers (not ESPN Magazine sleepers). Yes, Warner is gone. But all the more reason to keep an eye on Breaston. He could fall way too far in drafts.

A former 1,000-yard receiver who has never been a full-time statrer, Breaston is now the Cardinals' flanker. Fitzgerald will draw doubles and brackets every Sunday. Breaston was nicked last year, but partially due to the beatings he took on punt returns. He's not returning punts this year. Leinart? I tend to lean toward glass half-full. Who knows. He should do fine.

Last January I saw Breaston snag 7-125-1 in that wild-card shootout and thought to myself, "Don't forget, Breaston can flat out play." I haven't forgotten.

Three more things: Arizona has 4 of 5 at home in weeks 12 thru 16. They only have one potential snow gig, at KC on Nov. 21. And finally, Breaston is playing on a 1-year RFA tender for $2.4m so he's chasing his one big NFL contract.

I will draft Breaston a round or two earlier than most.

72 catches, 1008 yards, 8 rec TDs.

 

[Hoot&HoLLer]

QB Kurt Warner and wideout Q Boldin, two components of that highly touted passing game of years past are gone. With the still unproven Leinart set to take the reins this season at QB, Whisenhunt is looking to establish an offense similar to the Steelers circa 2005-2007. That is a run first mentality with an efficient passing game. Wells and Hightower will be a great complement to eachother in the running game and Fitzgerald will still be the #1 WR on this team.

Let's look at 2009 stats

http://www.nfl.com/teams/arizonacardinals/...;seasonType=REG

According to the stats at the above site, the offense last year had 985 total offensive plays.

594 pass attempts

365 rushing attempts

I guess the difference of 26 plays that were not pass attempts or rushing attempts were some unaccounted play that was neither rush nor pass.

594/985 = 60% pass

365/985 = 37.1& rush

So if Wiz wants to balance the attack, let's take a rough estimation and say he wants 50-50 mix of run/pass. Running plays may take more time off the clock, as pass plays may result in incompletions. So lets drop total plays by 8% from 985 to 906.

906/2 = 453 run and 453 pass plays.

Warner and Leinart both completed 66% of their passes, though Warner had 513 attempts to Leinart's 77. Many would say that Leinart is not the same accurate passer as Warner, so let's lower his percentage rate over a larger number of attempts from 66% to 62%.

I would project Leinart to get 90% of the total projected 453 pass plays. That is 408 attempts. 62% completion percentage on 408 is 253 completions. But I guess we should project total completion for all passers. So 453 at 61% ( I think the total completions % for all passers will still be lower than Leinart's) is 276.

Last year, Warner had 339 completions and Leinart had 51.

Rec. break downs as follows:

Fitz had 97 for 1092 and 13 td

Q had 84 for 1024 and 4 td

Breaston had 55/712/3

Hightower had 63/428/0

And 9 others had 93 for 944 and 7 td

Q is gone. Breaston, a former 5th rd. pick out f Michigan has shown himself a good wr, catching 77 for over 1000 in 2008.

If 276 completions are a projected...I would say the reception breakdown would be:

Fitz = 35%

Breaston = 25%

Doucet = 10%

Hightower = 15%

Others = 15%

So that would be Breaston at 69 rec. Average 13.5 yards per catch for 931.5 yards and 6 tds

Of course, I could be completely wrong at all of that conjecture.

 

[frogpond11]

Good breakdown, I think 69 - 930 - 6 sounds about right for Breaston with Leinart at QB. The reports out of Cardinals camp seem to be really good for Leinart..but I've got to see it to believe it. The guy hasn't impressed me much when he's had to play the last couple of years.

Breaston should see quite a few single coverages though with Fitz being 8-teamed on the other side of the field

Another thing to think about is Doucet though. I remember seeing Doucet when he was at LSU and he has put on LOADS of muscle since he's been in Arizona. He put up some darn good stats when he was filling in for Boldin at the end of last season too. So Doucet might end up with a bigger piece of the pie than the 10% that you listed..it wouldn't surprise me.

So I could easily see Breaston getting over 1000 yards with 6-8 TDs, but I could also see him in the 700-800 yard range with 3-5 TDs as well...hard one to peg..

 

[haterade]

50-620-4

Combine a rising Early Doucet and a falling QB and you get a worse outcome than last year IMO

 

[*****]

50-620-4Combine a rising Early Doucet and a falling QB and you get a worse outcome than last year IMO

That really is some haterade.Even with the QB change, Docuet, and more running I think Breaston still puts in some good work. He has pretty much always performed well when given the chance. I think low side 75 rec, 950, 5 TDs with a high side of 90 rec, 1100 8 TDs. He know his chance has finally arrived and he'll do something with it.

 

[JohnnyU]

I believe Doucet is the more talented WR and that will eventually be on display. Maybe not completely this year, but it will. The cream always rises to the top.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

50-620-4Combine a rising Early Doucet and a falling QB and you get a worse outcome than last year IMO

That really is some haterade.Even with the QB change, Docuet, and more running I think Breaston still puts in some good work. He has pretty much always performed well when given the chance. I think low side 75 rec, 950, 5 TDs with a high side of 90 rec, 1100 8 TDs. He know his chance has finally arrived and he'll do something with it.

A floor of 75 catches with Doucet, Leinart, and more Wells is being way to generous.

 

[haterade]

That really is some haterade.

There needs to be more haterade around here... these pie in the sky predictions in these player forums is out of control. The well-understood problem is that people tend to take the effort to post on players they expect to improve, and not post in players they predict to stay the same or regress.This is why i tend to respect the opinions of those here who post their opinions on most/all individual player forums. Ya'll know who you are...

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Breaston is now starting since Anquan left but so did Kurt Warner. So what kind of year will the offense have with Leinart now running the show and Bolden out of the offense? My guess is not as bad as some prognosticators are suggesting but still, it will not be as good as it was the last couple of years.....it simply can't be.

64 receptoins for 760 yards and 5 td's

 

[Routilla]

How's the knee?

 

[Hairy Snowman]

I think Breaston has been completely undervalued in the rankings going forward from here. I already have him, so I feel I can talk about it now. His schedule and opportunities should be great.

 

[leave a whisper]

How's the knee?

 

[Captain Hook]

How's the knee?

still listed as questionable - but there isn't as much information as usual since they don't play until Monday night

 

[sandlotshrink]

I think Breaston has been completely undervalued in the rankings going forward from here. I already have him, so I feel I can talk about it now. His schedule and opportunities should be great.

I completely agree. If you consider their favorable schedule, lack of run game and the fact D's will shade coverage toward Fitz, Breaston should present nice value even with DA at QB. The knee and him being questionble, well only time will tell. If he can't go, then who steps in for Breaston?