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Very good write up. Thank you very muchQuit stealing my post topics for tomorrow
First, Hutchinson was second-team All-Pro in '06; he's got 5 first-team All-Pro selections.
A Super Bowl ring would certainly help Hutch, but he looks like a HOF regardless. Hutchinson has blocked for some big rushers which helps, although detractors could argue he can't take all the credit. In Seattle they had All-Pros Mack Strong and Walter Jones blocking for All-Pro Shaun Alexander in '05, and Robbie Tobeck made the Pro Bowl that year; In Minnesota he's had McKinnie and Kleinsasser and Birk and Richardson and, of course, Peterson. I'm not taking away anything from Hutchinson, that's the case for most All-Pro guards. Just pointing it out.
There are only 9 pure modern era guards in the HOF and Bruce Matthews.
Tom Mack was only a first-team All-Pro once but an 11-time Pro Bowler for the Rams.
Mike Munchak was a two-time All-Pro and 9-time Pro Bowler.
Joe DeLamielleure (3/6) cut his HOF resume blocking for O.J. and winning H2H battles against Joe Greene
Gene Hickerson (3/6) blocked for Leroy Kelly and was a Senior's induction
Then you get the guys with 5-7 first-team All-Pro nods: Upshaw, Little, Billy Shaw (AFL), John Hannah, Bruce Matthews and Randall McDaniel.
Who isn't in the HOF at guard?
Walt Sweeney (9/2, AFL). Steve Wisniewski (8/2). Jerry Kramer (3/5). Bob Kuechenberg (6/1).
Hutchinson (7/5) seems to have a much stronger case than any of these guys, at least based on post-season honors. Six first-team All-Pros is pretty much a lock for an OL; Jim Tyrer made 6 but he was an AFL guy and has other issues; Mick Tingelhoff was a five-time guy but has suffered from some bias for playing poorly in Super Bowls; Jerry Kramer played on a team with 11 HOFers, so he had it pretty tough; those are the only linemen with four or more that have been snubbed by the HOF (Dermontti Dawson is at 6, but I think he's very likely to make the HOF soon; I wouldn't call him a snub just yet; then you have some not-yet eligible guys).
Who is his competition?
Will Shields, Larry Allen, Alan Faneca. And maybe Jones.
Shields is a 12-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro. Larry Allen (11/6) is a lock. Faneca (9/6) looks like one, too. It's plausible that since all of these guys will be eligible before Hutchinson that they may take up Hutchinson's spot. Will the voters be content with voting in 4 guards in a 10 year span? Probably, but you never know.
And then the Jones question. Do the voters induct two HOF linemen on a non-SB champ? Well, it hasn't really been a problem before. Munchak and Matthews, McDaniel and Zimmerman, Tom Mack and Bob Brown, etc.
So, the answer seems to me -- at least based on post-season honors -- overwhelmingly yes. Hutchinson should probably not retire anytime soon, but three more seasons even without any honors is probably enough.
We know, 11 HOFers is just selling those Packers short. (I kid; I think we both agree that most everyone would be happy if we did some plastic surgery on Paul Hornung's bust and made it look like Kramer.)
Horning is in because of his kicking. That was the extra skill that put him over the top. Otherwise he would be somebody like Ken Willard, John David Crowe, Bill Brown, Chuck Foreman, Mark Van Eagan guys who are on the outside looking in.
Based on what?
Really nice article, Chase. BTW, the Times is rude and outlandish in that they claim you are an "attorney". Will these people stop at nothing to defame good citizens???
Quit stealing my post topics for tomorrow
First, Hutchinson was second-team All-Pro in '06; he's got 5 first-team All-Pro selections.
A Super Bowl ring would certainly help Hutch, but he looks like a HOF regardless. Hutchinson has blocked for some big rushers which helps, although detractors could argue he can't take all the credit. In Seattle they had All-Pros Mack Strong and Walter Jones blocking for All-Pro Shaun Alexander in '05, and Robbie Tobeck made the Pro Bowl that year; In Minnesota he's had McKinnie and Kleinsasser and Birk and Richardson and, of course, Peterson. I'm not taking away anything from Hutchinson, that's the case for most All-Pro guards. Just pointing it out.
There are only 9 pure modern era guards in the HOF and Bruce Matthews.
Tom Mack was only a first-team All-Pro once but an 11-time Pro Bowler for the Rams.
Mike Munchak was a two-time All-Pro and 9-time Pro Bowler.
Joe DeLamielleure (3/6) cut his HOF resume blocking for O.J. and winning H2H battles against Joe Greene
Gene Hickerson (3/6) blocked for Leroy Kelly and was a Senior's induction
Then you get the guys with 5-7 first-team All-Pro nods: Upshaw, Little, Billy Shaw (AFL), John Hannah, Bruce Matthews and Randall McDaniel.
Who isn't in the HOF at guard?
Walt Sweeney (9/2, AFL). Steve Wisniewski (8/2). Jerry Kramer (3/5). Bob Kuechenberg (6/1).
Hutchinson (7/5) seems to have a much stronger case than any of these guys, at least based on post-season honors. Six first-team All-Pros is pretty much a lock for an OL; Jim Tyrer made 6 but he was an AFL guy and has other issues; Mick Tingelhoff was a five-time guy but has suffered from some bias for playing poorly in Super Bowls; Jerry Kramer played on a team with 11 HOFers, so he had it pretty tough; those are the only linemen with four or more that have been snubbed by the HOF (Dermontti Dawson is at 6, but I think he's very likely to make the HOF soon; I wouldn't call him a snub just yet; then you have some not-yet eligible guys).
Who is his competition?
Will Shields, Larry Allen, Alan Faneca. And maybe Jones.
Shields is a 12-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro. Larry Allen (11/6) is a lock. Faneca (9/6) looks like one, too. It's plausible that since all of these guys will be eligible before Hutchinson that they may take up Hutchinson's spot. Will the voters be content with voting in 4 guards in a 10 year span? Probably, but you never know.
And then the Jones question. Do the voters induct two HOF linemen on a non-SB champ? Well, it hasn't really been a problem before. Munchak and Matthews, McDaniel and Zimmerman, Tom Mack and Bob Brown, etc.
So, the answer seems to me -- at least based on post-season honors -- overwhelmingly yes. Hutchinson should probably not retire anytime soon, but three more seasons even without any honors is probably enough.
Not sure what you think about ProFootballFocus ratings, but I find it interesting that they view Hutchinson as falling off sharply this year:
I don't doubt these stats at all. Hutch has been playing with a bad back since week 2. It clearly affected him earlier this year and he was questionable for a lot of games. Anyone watching the Vikings O line could've told you that they were a below average run blocking unit. I think they may have been one of the worst run blocking units in the league. Without a guy of AP's talent I doubt the Vikings could've had a 1000 yard rusher this year.Not sure what you think about ProFootballFocus ratings, but I find it interesting that they view Hutchinson as falling off sharply this year:2007: #2 guard (behind Mankins)2008: #4 guard (behind Mankins, Waters, and Snee)2009: #38 guardSo PFF would not have viewed him as a 1st team All Pro in 2008 or 2009. (Their ratings only go back to 2007.) And also surprising is their breakdown of his 2009 ratings
ass blocking - #1 guardScreen blocking - tied for #24 guardRun blocking - #78 guardCertainly one can question the PFF methodology and/or subjective assessments. But this is interesting data. Note I'm not saying Hutchinson should not make the HOF, just that I like this more detailed look at OL performance.
