Steve Smith NYG (1 Viewer)

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I can't take it any longer. I think I am one of the very "few" on here that think this guy is not getting enough love at all....... I did see a couple others from the Nicks thread that feel he is underrated as well but I want to come to his defense.

Why I feel he is getting no love.... Steve Smith is not a flashy guy, he goes about his business extremly quietly. He will not wow you with 70 yard TD highlight reel catch. He also won't out jump a DB to make a spectacular catch or run a 4.3 forty. He has played out of the slot his first two years in the league and people are concerned that he is only a slot guy. He will be competing with Nicks or even a Hixon for touches. And the Giants run to much and he will not get the looks and it goes on and on.

I think he is one of the biggest sleeper WR guys out there. Everyone is fixiated on the rookie coming in and being "the guy." I don't think Nicks having success in NY is going to hurt Smith as much as it will help him. The guy finds a way to get open as seen last year in his WR 3 role. He had 57 receptions and 574 yards with 1 TD all the while playing limited snaps due to his role out of the slot. Many people view him as specifcially a slot guy and although he has many slot characteristics I think he will line up outside this year and do quite well.

The NYG are going to start him this year outside and when they go to 3 reciever sets he will move into the slot which is not a bad thing for Smith as Eli likes to look his way a lot when he is lined up in there as indicated by his 57 catches last year in that role. Therefore in a starting role this year and with the trust and comfort level he has with Eli and the Giants why is he not being projected to do better? They have no Burress and Toomer has moved on as well. They have an average guy in Hixon who is/will lose his job to Nicks sooner than later. The only certainity at this stage appears to be Smith's role which should be a very important one to this offense. I think in a PPR league more specifically he is going to suprise a lot of people. I liken him to a Houshy, or Welker or Cotchery. Guys that are far from flashy but go out there get open for their QB's and catch the ball by running good routes and having great hands.

There was rumour of the Giants trying to get Edwards but the asking price of a draft pick and Smith was nothing the Giants were willing to do at all. The Giants like this guy, Eli likes this guy, this guy is starting, this guy had 57 catches as a non starter, this guy is battle tested, and this guy is someone I think to many people are sleeping on.

Am I the only one???

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think he is going to be fine in PPR leagues this year.

But the fact that the NYG drafted two WR in the first three rounds probalby means they were not happy with their current situation.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think he is going to be fine in PPR leagues this year.But the fact that the NYG drafted two WR in the first three rounds probalby means they were not happy with their current situation.

True, but could also mean they were preparing for life without Plaxico and Toomer............

 

[Tanner9919]

had a bit of a sophomore slump last season in that he didn't make quite the splash some were hoping for. Should see a slight uptick in stats, but I wouldn't expect anything major from him...60-65 recs, tops. I think they try to give the ball to Nicks, early and often. Nicks was, as they say, the most polished, NFL-ready WR in this year's draft.we'll see.

and if things don't go swimmingly well in training camp with the new stable of WR's , I wouldn't be surprised to see NYG move on a trade with Az for Boldin ,or Cleveland for Braylon. yes I'm reaching but I wouldn't be shocked if some sort of deal was worked out.

That would all but kill any potential fantasy value SS would have as a 3rd year guy.

 

[Patoons]

I agree carter.

Great stats as a #3 WR in NY last year. He will surprise this year.

 

[zadok]

I agree carter. Great stats as a #3 WR in NY last year. He will surprise this year.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's in the top 20. In fact, I'm expecting it. Top 15 is within reach.

 

[r3t2]

had a bit of a sophomore slump last season in that he didn't make quite the splash some were hoping for. Should see a slight uptick in stats, but I wouldn't expect anything major from him...60-65 recs, tops. I think they try to give the ball to Nicks, early and often. Nicks was, as they say, the most polished, NFL-ready WR in this year's draft.we'll see.and if things don't go swimmingly well in training camp with the new stable of WR's , I wouldn't be surprised to see NYG move on a trade with Az for Boldin ,or Cleveland for Braylon. yes I'm reaching but I wouldn't be shocked if some sort of deal was worked out.That would all but kill any potential fantasy value SS would have as a 3rd year guy.

huh? he went from about 15 catches as a rookie to 54 in his second year. were expectations higher than this?

 

[The Future Champs]

He's getting drafted as (roughly) the #55 WR. Why would I want to talk him up in advance?

 

[massraider]

had a bit of a sophomore slump last season in that he didn't make quite the splash some were hoping for. Should see a slight uptick in stats, but I wouldn't expect anything major from him...60-65 recs, tops.

A sophomore slump? He went from 8 catches--to 57. No Plax or Toomer this year, and you think he'll only improve on those numbers by 3-8 catches?A good team, two vets gone, two rookies and Manningham for competition. I love this kids situation. Came out of college with a rep as being steady, but lacking the 'upside' of other players. Fine with me.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

It's possible that he'll thrive with Plax and Toomer gone... but he looks merely capable to me. A better NFL WR than fantasy WR.

10.1 yards per catch is not so good. Other WRs have been around that and been successful, but it sure takes a whole boatload of catches to be productive with a low ypr.

I think he'll just be another depth guy for fantasy. I doubt he gets more than 70 catches, but even with 80 catches he'll need 12.5 yards per catch to reach just 1000 yards. Couple that with his average size and athleticism/speed, and you don't get very many TDs, either. Add in the fat that the Giants run the ball very well and have a very good defense, and I just don't see enough upside in the team's passing game to warrant a significant enough uptick in Smith's stats to make him fantasy relevant. WR3 at best, and probably not that good, imo.

For reference, here are his stats last year with and without Burress. I included the QB completions/yards/TDs as well.

rec/yds .. comp/yds/TD

2/27 ....... 20/272/3

2/22 ....... 21/305/1

4/47 ....... 13/123/1

5/59 ....... 18/191/0

3/24 ....... 17/181/1

2/20 ....... 19/229/1

6 games, 18/199/0 w/out Burress = 3/33.3/g

10 games, 39/375/1 with Burress = 3.9/37.5/g

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

had a bit of a sophomore slump last season in that he didn't make quite the splash some were hoping for. Should see a slight uptick in stats, but I wouldn't expect anything major from him...60-65 recs, tops. I think they try to give the ball to Nicks, early and often. Nicks was, as they say, the most polished, NFL-ready WR in this year's draft.we'll see.and if things don't go swimmingly well in training camp with the new stable of WR's , I wouldn't be surprised to see NYG move on a trade with Az for Boldin ,or Cleveland for Braylon. yes I'm reaching but I wouldn't be shocked if some sort of deal was worked out.That would all but kill any potential fantasy value SS would have as a 3rd year guy.

huh? he went from about 15 catches as a rookie to 54 in his second year. were expectations higher than this?

I agree I think he met his expectations last year as a second year player and the role he had. Last year his situation was one that should not have been anthing to get extremly excited about due to being the slot guy who was playing behind Burress and Toomer. Also, he had a role in the offense and when Burress was suspended he stayed in that role and Hixon had Burress' role. Smith this year is no longer limited to the slot as he is being shifted outside and into a starter. He had 57 catches last season, so why would your projections with him now starting and having a greater opporunity of more targets limit him to catching 60-65 balls. So he will only catch 3-8 more passes with an increased role in the offense?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I agree carter. Great stats as a #3 WR in NY last year. He will surprise this year.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's in the top 20. In fact, I'm expecting it. Top 15 is within reach.

The number 15 WR last year had 81/1043/7. The number 20 WR last year had 91/980/5.That's a pretty big jump for Smith to make. If he is used as a possession receiver, his yards per catch won't improve enough for him to reach those levels, in all likelihood.It's not impossible, he is still young. Maybe he will surprise. He reminds me of Josh Reed. Actually, their 2nd seasons are almost identical. Reed was a guy folks thought was ready to make the next step after his first couple of seasons, but he turned out to be just an adequate possession WR. Reed, in year 7, just had his best season... 56/597/1 in 13 games.

 

[Gopher State]

had a bit of a sophomore slump last season in that he didn't make quite the splash some were hoping for. Should see a slight uptick in stats, but I wouldn't expect anything major from him...60-65 recs, tops. I think they try to give the ball to Nicks, early and often. Nicks was, as they say, the most polished, NFL-ready WR in this year's draft.we'll see.and if things don't go swimmingly well in training camp with the new stable of WR's , I wouldn't be surprised to see NYG move on a trade with Az for Boldin ,or Cleveland for Braylon. yes I'm reaching but I wouldn't be shocked if some sort of deal was worked out.That would all but kill any potential fantasy value SS would have as a 3rd year guy.

I also see Smith being traded as opition 1, if he stays in NY he be the #3 WR behind Hixon & Nicks.I don't see the upside based on what he has done in the past and the current talent (WR) on the Giants.If I playing WR sleepers this year I going Clayton Balt, Bennett Chic, Austin Dall, they have a shot a being a #2 guy

 

[MAC_32]

I'd rather take the high upside WR than the low ceiling possession WR. Smith is an under valued real NFL receiver, but fantasy? Meh. He'll make the key 3rd down catch, fight for an extra yard or two, not afraid to go over the middle, will throw a key block but he's not an impact fantasy player.

He's an uninteresting WR3-4 that probably shouldn't be falling to the 50+ range among WR's in drafts, but it doesn't surprise me too much.

 

[RC94]

I think he is going to be fine in PPR leagues this year.But the fact that the NYG drafted two WR in the first three rounds probalby means they were not happy with their current situation.

True, but could also mean they were preparing for life without Plaxico and Toomer............

Life without Burress and Toomer is their current situation.

 

[-jb-]

Steve Smith: Wide Receiver - See also, Troy Brown.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I think he is going to be fine in PPR leagues this year.But the fact that the NYG drafted two WR in the first three rounds probalby means they were not happy with their current situation.

Of course they are not happy with their current WR situation. It could be argued that the only guy they are really sure about at WR is Smith himself. They know for sure he is legit out of the slot at the very least and he will get his chance to show if he can start outside and be legit.Hixon: I think he will end up being the guy that comes in for 3 WR sets and Smith will slide into the slot. Hixon could end up starting the year as the starter but I am sure he will be passed by Nicks sooner than later.Nicks: Will end up becoming the starter with SmithMendenhall: DepthMoss: Depth or cutThere really is so many question marks on this team out of the WR position. But I think Smith is one of the least questioned. Sure the Giants are not the Colts of the passing game but Eli has thrown for 4 consecutive years of 3200 plus yards and 21 plus TD's. Without Burress, Toomer, Shockey (2 years removed), you have Smith starting with 65 career NFL receptions, Hixon 45 career NFL receptions and who knows if he will even beat out Nicks and then it even gets worst. So why can't Smith end up with 75-85 catches with 1000 yards ish and 8 ish TD's?

 

[Dreamer]

Too many guys nibbling at his piece of the pie, and I don't think he'll ever be a true #1.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Steve Smith: Wide Receiver - See also, Troy Brown.

Troy Brown never reached 57 receptions until his 8th year in the league. His highest reception total in those first 7 years was 41. He then had 3 very solid years of 83 catches, 101 catches and 97 catches and then had 5 years of never getting past 43 receptions again. I find it tough to compare Smith to a guy who first caught more than 57 balls his 8th year into the NFL. But thats just me.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Too many guys nibbling at his piece of the pie, and I don't think he'll ever be a true #1.

Who is nibbling at his piece of the pie? And I am not expecting Smith to be C. Johnson or Fitz. But someone that can contribute a lot considering where he can be drafted.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Steve Smith is a possession type WR, but his low ypc numbers can be skewed due to situations that a majority of his receptions were accrued in during last season. Smith was mostly used as a 3rd down slot receiver meaning that his main job was to get open in an area that would gain first down yardage and then catch the ball. If he takes over Amani Toomer's spot as the #2 wideout he'll be asked to do more and those numbers will theorectically increase.

He is capable of making big plays if needed. In the playoff game against the Eagles last season, if Eli wasn't so terrible (couldn't hit the side of a barn), Smith would have had a very big game starting with a long TD down the sideline on the opening drive. Its not his game to go downfield, but with a bigger role he'll hit big plays now and then.

He'll never be a fantasy stud, but he can easily be a 4-6 catch 60-85 yard per game WR (with some bigger games tossed in) and that can be a valuable fantasy asset in ppr leagues. I also think his TD production will increase as he's capable of getting open in a phone booth which can come in handy in the red zone.

I'm not sleeping on him.

 

[nittanylion]

Burress and Toomer, Burress and Toomer...Derrick Ward was a pretty important piece of the NYG Passing Offense last year as well, and it's remiss to not mention his absence when discussing the '09 Season, and the prospects of the NYGiants.

As it stands right now, Steve Smith is the most accomplished, trusted and reliable option for Eli, of the Skill Position Group, and he has a chance to play a Bobby Engram-like role this Season. That being said, you don't just go out overnight and replace a DWard, Burress and Toomer, and quite frankly, I think the NYG will find themselves relying a bit more on the Run this year by necessity, especially at the start of the Season, so I think their aggregate passing yardage will be down, but Smith will have a significant chunk of it falling to him, due to the critical role he'll play. He'll only get it in small chunks though, once again, due to his importance and role. He's a chain mover, and a damn good one.

Now, depending on the League Rules you play with, a Bobby Engram-type can certainly be quite a weapon (PPR, 1st Down Receptions). Smith can be had cheaply, and is a startable WR3 that you can wait on acquiring while stockpiling elsewhere. He will outperform his Draft Position. I think both Smith and Kevin Boss will see quality reception totals for their positions. I currently have Boss slated for 48 Receptions and Smith for 64...but if you're looking for TD's, I don't think he's your guy. Personally, I think Boss is the Red Zone guy to have on the Giants.

As far as other WR go, I like what Nicks and Barden did in College, but it remains to be seen if their skills will translate. Nicks certainly looks pro-ready, but it's too early to determine if he actually is. Ditto Barden. Either way, I think their development only helps, rather than hurts, Smith. Eli will lean on Smith and Boss, though, no matter what happens with those two. For the Giants to succeed, Eli needs to stay mistake free, and use his reliable check-down options, and move the chains and eat clock. In Ward's absence, Smith and Boss are those guys, almost an extension of the running game. That will keep the D fresh, and allow it and the RB's to close out the Games for the GMen.

I have strong gut feeling that the only folks touting Hixon as a better NFL and FFL WR than Steve Smith are folks who are hoping they caught lightning in a bottle last year when they signed him off the Waiver Wire. From everything I've seen, Smith is a much more polished WR with bigger upside. Hixon became a starter by default/attrition, and if all goes as planned with the two Rookies, he and Sinorice Moss are probably expendable. Tyree could be back in the mix, and Manningham is developing as well. All I can see that Hixon has on Smith is a couple of inches.

So in a nutshell, in a League rewarding PPR, you could grab two or three solid WR early to start a run, build depth at QB, RB and TE while everyone else is chasing WR3 and knocking value down to you at the other positions, and grab Smith at a nice price as your WR3/Flex(WR4), and do really well for yourself.

At least that's my take.

 

[loose circuits]

had a bit of a sophomore slump last season in that he didn't make quite the splash some were hoping for. Should see a slight uptick in stats, but I wouldn't expect anything major from him...60-65 recs, tops. I think they try to give the ball to Nicks, early and often. Nicks was, as they say, the most polished, NFL-ready WR in this year's draft.we'll see.and if things don't go swimmingly well in training camp with the new stable of WR's , I wouldn't be surprised to see NYG move on a trade with Az for Boldin ,or Cleveland for Braylon. yes I'm reaching but I wouldn't be shocked if some sort of deal was worked out.That would all but kill any potential fantasy value SS would have as a 3rd year guy.

I also see Smith being traded as opition 1, if he stays in NY he be the #3 WR behind Hixon & Nicks.I don't see the upside based on what he has done in the past and the current talent (WR) on the Giants.If I playing WR sleepers this year I going Clayton Balt, Bennett Chic, Austin Dall, they have a shot a being a #2 guy

which one is going to play flanker? because Hixon, Nicks, and Barden have all been working at the Y. It seems they are battling for 1 starting job, so I"m just curious where you are getting your information?

 

[RC94]

While with the Giants, Burress had 76, 63, 70 and 35 receptions in 4 years as the clear #1 WR. Obviously we can take out the 35 reception year (last year) in a comparison because he missed so much time, but otherwise I don't see any WR exceeding the average of those amounts, especially while there are so many good WRs but no clear #1 WRs on the team. Smith was already pretty close to that last year with 57 and I don't think he will get many more going forward. Maybe he will break 60 or 65, but what he really needs to do is increase his 9.8 career YPC if he is going to put up better overall numbers, not more receptions.

By getting the opportunity to run more outside routes, he should increase that amount as well as his overall yards, but he is still going to play from the slot a good amount anyway. More importantly, Eli will always spread the ball around a lot so that limits Smith's, and most other WRs, upside. For Smith, I think an expectation of about 60 receptions with an increase to about 12 YPC for a total of approximately 720 yards is reasonable and realistic. From a fantasy perspective, I would not be overly optimistic that he will ever be a really good fantasy starter unless he also become a TD hawk, but with a number of bigger WRs on the team I am not confident Smith is going to be a primary redzone target. As a NYG fan, I like Smith and how he is becoming a reliable possession WR for Eli, but from a fantasy perspective I think he has limited upside.

 

[Dreamer]

Too many guys nibbling at his piece of the pie, and I don't think he'll ever be a true #1.

Who is nibbling at his piece of the pie? And I am not expecting Smith to be C. Johnson or Fitz. But someone that can contribute a lot considering where he can be drafted.

Manningham, Moss, Tyree, Beckum, Barden, Nicks, Hixon, Boss and the RBs.How many receptions can he possibly get? I'd guess 60-650-3 and I like him as an NFL player, I just don't see the upside fantasy wise.

 

[massraider]

Too many guys nibbling at his piece of the pie, and I don't think he'll ever be a true #1.

Who is nibbling at his piece of the pie? And I am not expecting Smith to be C. Johnson or Fitz. But someone that can contribute a lot considering where he can be drafted.

Manningham, Moss, Tyree, Beckum, Barden, Nicks, Hixon, Boss and the RBs.How many receptions can he possibly get? I'd guess 60-650-3 and I like him as an NFL player, I just don't see the upside fantasy wise.

Those names might be the strongest argument yet that Smith is underrated. Listing every guy that can catch the ball is not the same as listing guys that are a threat to Smith's piece of the passing game. Not sure if he needs to be a true #1 to help. Houshmanzadeh has yet to be a true #1, and has helped a lot of fantasy teams.

 

[Ed Wood]

Steve Smith is a possession type WR, but...if he takes over Amani Toomer's spot as the #2 wideout he'll be asked to do more and those numbers will theorectically increase.

Smith has averaged a pedestrian 10.1 yards per catch, but I think he has more upside than that when you take into consideration his college numbers when he was lined up outside (sorry for the lousy formatting):YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD 2004 42 660 15.7 51 6 2005 60 957 16.0 67 5 2006 71 1083 15.3 53 9

 

[ZWK]

I see Smith as having a combination of his role from last year and Toomer's role from the past few years. Toomer was generally around 60/720/4 over 16 games, and taking into account what Smith did in the slot last year I'm projecting him for more catches and a lower ypc, maybe 70/800/4. He has some upside in terms of getting more targets, but not all that much in terms of ypc or TDs. In standard leagues that puts him around WR40 with a low ceiling. In PPR leagues he could be a low-end WR3 with a little bit more upside. Potentially good value, but nothing I'd get too excited about.

 

[Chairshot]

As a Giants fan, I hope Smith has an awesome year. It's probably true that he's a better NFL receiver then fantasy one. But that doesn't mean that he can't contribute in a big way fantasy wise.

The Giants offense hasn't really changed that much over the last couple years and, despite the loss of Plaxico Burress, it probably won't change very much this upcoming year, either, given that they will still have the same OC in Kevin Gilbride, the same QB in Eli Manning and the same starting RB in Brandon Jacobs.

So, I think it's very likely that they are going to throw the ball about 500 times, as they have consistently done over the past couple years. This offseason, they lost 66 targets to Plax, 89 targets to Amani Toomer and 54 to Derrick Ward. That's over 200 targets. Even if they passed the ball 100 times less (which seems really unlikely to me), that's still a butt load of targets that have to go somewhere.

Given that it's hard to predict that Hakeem Nicks is going to have a Dwayne Bowe or Eddie Royal type rookie year (though, I suppose he could and I personally hope he does), the most logical players to pick up targets are Smith and Dom Hixon. An additional 30-40 targets minimum to Smith seems almost like a given, just from the sheer fact that they have to go somewhere. Fifty or more extra targets doesn't seem out of the question at all.

And if Smith basically caught 60 balls off 80 targets last year, it's not at all crazy to see him catching 80+ balls off 110 or more targets.

I guess I'm saying that unless a person is ready to predict a pretty sharp change of direction in the Giants game planning by way of significantly less pass attempts, then the 500 or so attempts have to be attempted to someone. Some combination of players have to pick up those 200 targets. And I really don't see why Smith wouldn't be one of the players to significantly benefit from that. The only real counter argument is that guys like Manningham, Nicks, Barden and Beckum are going to gobble up all the available targets. But history doesn't really back up the situation unfolding like that, as far as I can tell. Health permitting, Smith's targets should go up almost by default.

With wide receivers we all know what it comes down to: opportunity and talent. I think most people would agree that Smith showed he had the talent last year. And he most certainly will have a much greater opportunity this year.

Count me with the group that says "outperforms his draft position by a wide margin".

 

[Two Deep]

I think he is going to be fine in PPR leagues this year.

But the fact that the NYG drafted two WR in the first three rounds probalby means they were not happy with their current situation.

Of course they are not happy with their current WR situation. It could be argued that the only guy they are really sure about at WR is Smith himself. They know for sure he is legit out of the slot at the very least and he will get his chance to show if he can start outside and be legit.Hixon: I think he will end up being the guy that comes in for 3 WR sets and Smith will slide into the slot. Hixon could end up starting the year as the starter but I am sure he will be passed by Nicks sooner than later.Nicks: Will end up becoming the starter with Smith

Mendenhall: Depth

Moss: Depth or cut

There really is so many question marks on this team out of the WR position. But I think Smith is one of the least questioned.

Sure the Giants are not the Colts of the passing game but Eli has thrown for 4 consecutive years of 3200 plus yards and 21 plus TD's. Without Burress, Toomer, Shockey (2 years removed), you have Smith starting with 65 career NFL receptions, Hixon 45 career NFL receptions and who knows if he will even beat out Nicks and then it even gets worst. So why can't Smith end up with 75-85 catches with 1000 yards ish and 8 ish TD's?

I disagree with this. If anything Nicks will pass Smith and Smith will play the slot exclusively. Hixon is the only receiver with enough speed to stretch the field. I think they will run 3 receiver sets more often then not.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Too many guys nibbling at his piece of the pie, and I don't think he'll ever be a true #1.

Who is nibbling at his piece of the pie? And I am not expecting Smith to be C. Johnson or Fitz. But someone that can contribute a lot considering where he can be drafted.

Manningham, Moss, Tyree, Beckum, Barden, Nicks, Hixon, Boss and the RBs.How many receptions can he possibly get? I'd guess 60-650-3 and I like him as an NFL player, I just don't see the upside fantasy wise.

I was under the impression that every team had 5-6 WRs, at least two TEs and some RBs.

 

[inzanitee]

I see Smith as having a combination of his role from last year and Toomer's role from the past few years. Toomer was generally around 60/720/4 over 16 games, and taking into account what Smith did in the slot last year I'm projecting him for more catches and a lower ypc, maybe 70/800/4. He has some upside in terms of getting more targets, but not all that much in terms of ypc or TDs. In standard leagues that puts him around WR40 with a low ceiling. In PPR leagues he could be a low-end WR3 with a little bit more upside. Potentially good value, but nothing I'd get too excited about.

:( This is exactly how I feel.

 

[FUBAR]

Too many guys nibbling at his piece of the pie, and I don't think he'll ever be a true #1.

Who is nibbling at his piece of the pie? And I am not expecting Smith to be C. Johnson or Fitz. But someone that can contribute a lot considering where he can be drafted.

Manningham, Moss, Tyree, Beckum, Barden, Nicks, Hixon, Boss and the RBs.How many receptions can he possibly get? I'd guess 60-650-3 and I like him as an NFL player, I just don't see the upside fantasy wise.

I was under the impression that every team had 5-6 WRs, at least two TEs and some RBs.

Sure, but how many teams have such a plethera of proven studs?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

As a Giants fan, I hope Smith has an awesome year. It's probably true that he's a better NFL receiver then fantasy one. But that doesn't mean that he can't contribute in a big way fantasy wise.The Giants offense hasn't really changed that much over the last couple years and, despite the loss of Plaxico Burress, it probably won't change very much this upcoming year, either, given that they will still have the same OC in Kevin Gilbride, the same QB in Eli Manning and the same starting RB in Brandon Jacobs.So, I think it's very likely that they are going to throw the ball about 500 times, as they have consistently done over the past couple years. This offseason, they lost 66 targets to Plax, 89 targets to Amani Toomer and 54 to Derrick Ward. That's over 200 targets. Even if they passed the ball 100 times less (which seems really unlikely to me), that's still a butt load of targets that have to go somewhere.Given that it's hard to predict that Hakeem Nicks is going to have a Dwayne Bowe or Eddie Royal type rookie year (though, I suppose he could and I personally hope he does), the most logical players to pick up targets are Smith and Dom Hixon. An additional 30-40 targets minimum to Smith seems almost like a given, just from the sheer fact that they have to go somewhere. Fifty or more extra targets doesn't seem out of the question at all.And if Smith basically caught 60 balls off 80 targets last year, it's not at all crazy to see him catching 80+ balls off 110 or more targets.I guess I'm saying that unless a person is ready to predict a pretty sharp change of direction in the Giants game planning by way of significantly less pass attempts, then the 500 or so attempts have to be attempted to someone. Some combination of players have to pick up those 200 targets. And I really don't see why Smith wouldn't be one of the players to significantly benefit from that. The only real counter argument is that guys like Manningham, Nicks, Barden and Beckum are going to gobble up all the available targets. But history doesn't really back up the situation unfolding like that, as far as I can tell. Health permitting, Smith's targets should go up almost by default. With wide receivers we all know what it comes down to: opportunity and talent. I think most people would agree that Smith showed he had the talent last year. And he most certainly will have a much greater opportunity this year. Count me with the group that says "outperforms his draft position by a wide margin".

This sums up exactly what I was trying to say. Very well written and logistics and stats show that Smith has more upside than he is getting credit for.

 

[FavreCo]

I'd compare Smith to Mason of Baltimore. Should have a similar career. Should do well this year if Eli can get the ball near him.

 

[Dodge]

I see Smith playing the Toomer role and 80 catches seems a decent expectation.

Offensive Rookies don't get that much playing time under Coughlin (though this may be because they don't prove themselves) unless there are injuries. I can see the first three WRs on the depth chart being Hixon, Smith, Moss/Manningham. Unless Nicks and Barden shine, don't expect them to get much time, thus giving Smith more opportunities. The Giants have a very complex read-reaction route tree that is hard for rookies to pick up.

He's Eli's go-to-go now, just like Toomer was. He's very comfortable with him.

80/850/5 is what I think you should expect.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I can't take it any longer. I think I am one of the very "few" on here that think this guy is not getting enough love at all....... I did see a couple others from the Nicks thread that feel he is underrated as well but I want to come to his defense.Why I feel he is getting no love.... Steve Smith is not a flashy guy, he goes about his business extremly quietly. He will not wow you with 70 yard TD highlight reel catch. He also won't out jump a DB to make a spectacular catch or run a 4.3 forty. He has played out of the slot his first two years in the league and people are concerned that he is only a slot guy. He will be competing with Nicks or even a Hixon for touches. And the Giants run to much and he will not get the looks and it goes on and on. I think he is one of the biggest sleeper WR guys out there. Everyone is fixiated on the rookie coming in and being "the guy." I don't think Nicks having success in NY is going to hurt Smith as much as it will help him. The guy finds a way to get open as seen last year in his WR 3 role. He had 57 receptions and 574 yards with 1 TD all the while playing limited snaps due to his role out of the slot. Many people view him as specifcially a slot guy and although he has many slot characteristics I think he will line up outside this year and do quite well.The NYG are going to start him this year outside and when they go to 3 reciever sets he will move into the slot which is not a bad thing for Smith as Eli likes to look his way a lot when he is lined up in there as indicated by his 57 catches last year in that role. Therefore in a starting role this year and with the trust and comfort level he has with Eli and the Giants why is he not being projected to do better? They have no Burress and Toomer has moved on as well. They have an average guy in Hixon who is/will lose his job to Nicks sooner than later. The only certainity at this stage appears to be Smith's role which should be a very important one to this offense. I think in a PPR league more specifically he is going to suprise a lot of people. I liken him to a Houshy, or Welker or Cotchery. Guys that are far from flashy but go out there get open for their QB's and catch the ball by running good routes and having great hands. There was rumour of the Giants trying to get Edwards but the asking price of a draft pick and Smith was nothing the Giants were willing to do at all. The Giants like this guy, Eli likes this guy, this guy is starting, this guy had 57 catches as a non starter, this guy is battle tested, and this guy is someone I think to many people are sleeping on. Am I the only one???

As a Giant fan I like Smith a lot. As a fantasy player, not so much. First, I think Hixon is better than most people think. I believe most people think of Hixon as an average #3 or even 4 WR. I think he is an average #2 or an excellent #3 (all ratings are real football and not fantasy). Then you have Moss who actually improved last year and caught the very few passes that went his way and now you have the two rookies to steal some TD's away and some balls. That is not even too mention the Super Bowl darling Tyree or TE. I think the ball will be spread around a lot and Smith's value will only be in a PPR league and not too much value there because of the spreading of the ball.

 

[FUBAR]

As a Giant fan I like Smith a lot. As a fantasy player, not so much. First, I think Hixon is better than most people think. I believe most people think of Hixon as an average #3 or even 4 WR. I think he is an average #2 or an excellent #3 (all ratings are real football and not fantasy). Then you have Moss who actually improved last year and caught the very few passes that went his way and now you have the two rookies to steal some TD's away and some balls. That is not even too mention the Super Bowl darling Tyree or TE. I think the ball will be spread around a lot and Smith's value will only be in a PPR league and not too much value there because of the spreading of the ball.

I like him in deep leagues as a weak 3 / strong 4. In shallower leagues, I just don't see him becoming elite, therefore I'll likely pass on him and take riskier players with higher upside.

 

[gianmarco]

This deserves a HUGE bump. Great call.

I'm astounded by the lack of talk about this guy in the SP. He's been the story of the year so far, IMO.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

This deserves a HUGE bump. Great call.I'm astounded by the lack of talk about this guy in the SP. He's been the story of the year so far, IMO.

Thanks for the bump,I stole him in my dynasty league this past off season at a dirt cheap price. I watched a lot of Giants games the past 2 years and sometimes you just get a good feel about a player and situation from actually observing. I projected a very conservative 75 catches for Smith prior to the year starting but also said it would not shock me to see him catch 90 to 95 passes. This guy is sure handed and one of the best route runners in the league. I also said he is a very similar Houshy type of player.There are still many non believers, but it goes without question that this guy is in line for a great career.Now lets just hope that Manning's heel is ok.

 

[rrhartjr]

He was so underrated, he was on the waiver wire in a 3WR PPR league. I, um, picked him up. I'd say it kinda worked out.

 

[Sylira21]

Yeah, considering he leads the league in yards, catches and TDs, an probably represents the highest "value" of any regularly drafted player so far, not much buzz.

Maybe it's because he's the "other" Steve Smith? And everyone is waiting for Eli to return to his more pedestrian passing ways?

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Like most everyone on this board, I'm starting to think I may have guessed wrong on this guy coming into this season. I thought the odds were stacked againgst a small/slot WR becoming a #1 WR and a legitamate 10+ catch guy and primary TD target for a QB. The last few years of his performance and how the NYG utilized him, there really was 0% chance he could end up becoming a top 5 WR....I'd say 80-90% of any/all fantasy "experts" didn't even have this guy projected as a top 10 WR's this season. I traded him in my dynasty league after week 2 (when I thought for sure he was an ideal "sell high" candidate for dynasty leagues) in order to get a very high 1st round pick next year. Now its looking like I probably made a mistake to initiate this trade since he's playing at the highest level for many weeks.

 

[zadok]

I agree carter. Great stats as a #3 WR in NY last year. He will surprise this year.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's in the top 20. In fact, I'm expecting it. Top 15 is within reach.

I knew I undersold him!

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Yeah, considering he leads the league in yards, catches and TDs, an probably represents the highest "value" of any regularly drafted player so far, not much buzz.

Maybe it's because he's the "other" Steve Smith? And everyone is waiting for Eli to return to his more pedestrian passing ways?

Although Eli is no Brady or Brees or his brother, he does put up enough yardage and TD's to make his Wr's have value, more specifically his WR 1.And I am surprised at the lack of for this guy. If Fitz or Moss or Ocho or heck if it was a rookie or other more heralded WR off to this type of start there would be chatter about how amazing they are.

 

[The Moz]

Dude is unreal at running his routes! Nothing special physically on speed of athletic but just in a class of Marvin Harrison of knowing where to run at all times.

 

[Night Hawks]

Took a late-round flyer on the guy. Traded him last week to shore up my weak running game but still love the guy, even though I hate the Giants. I guess I still under-rate him considering I traded him as there's no way I'd trade most Top 15 WR. Might kick myself, but when you HAVE to start Beanie F'ing Wells, I think something has to be done. lol.

Steve Smith > Mario Manningham

 

[Captain Spaulding]

The reason people aren't enamoured by him yet is the following:

-He was a 2nd round draft pick...not a highly touted WR coming out of college

-He's fairly small

- He's not blazing fast

Heart, hands and brains (i.e. route running) are WR factors that take a few extra years before most people value them equal to or higher than the physically gifted youngsters in the NFL. Heck, it took Hines Ward nearly a decade to finally start getting respect as an NFL WR. Now there is HOF rumblings and discussions about him.

 

[Hugonel]

Drafted (non ppr redraft) Hixon first and then Smith late (14 man rosters) as it was still unclear who #1 would be. Best move of my draft so far.

 

[proteus126]

Now lets just hope that Manning's heel is ok.

It would be ironic if I got screwed twice in 3 years because I had a WR named Steve Smith who suddenly found himself supplied by the bucket of suck known as David Carr. That wasn't fun last time.