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Steven Jackson (1 Viewer)

millerarm

Footballguy
SJax is ranked a consensus top 5 RB on the sites I respect, but I'm not sure why. His team will be playing from behind most of the time and there are really no other weapons in STL. When Bulger (eek) drops it'll get even uglier with Boller. Help me understand the love.

 
6.3 233lbs, has WR hands, and runs like a god on fire.

That's what I like about him. His dreads are pretty cool too I guess.

 
Has no offensive line, has no QB to move the ball and put Rams in scoring position, has no WRs to take pressure off him, and has no defense to keep the offense in games.

Sounds like a consensus Top 7 pick to me. What's not to like?

 
For God's sake can you use the search function for "Steven Jackson?"

We've had this discussion like 5 times this offseason.

 
Has no offensive line, has no QB to move the ball and put Rams in scoring position, has no WRs to take pressure off him, and has no defense to keep the offense in games.
All of that was true last year... and SJax still ranked 3rd in PPG in PPR leagues and 3rd in non-PPR leagues. Kevin Faulk ranked 33rd in PPG last year- I think we'd all agree that he's a pretty weak RB3... but if you got Kevin Faulk production (9 points per game) in the 4 games SJax missed last year, the combo would have finished 6th among all RBs.SJax has ranked 3rd, 7th, and 3rd in points per game over the past three seasons in a variety of situations (good offense, bad offense, terrible offense, healthy QB, injured QB, backup QB, healthy WRs, no WRs, good defense, bad defense). His total points have been a bit low because he's missed time in each of the past two seasons. If you believe that RBs are "injury-prone" and that past injuries predict future injuries, then SJax is... still worth a first round pick (remember that part about how SJax + Kevin Faulk would have been the 6th best RB last year?). If you treat injuries as isolated events with no inherent predictive powers, then SJax is a legit pick at #3 overall (or even higher), because he has as much of a proven track record of stud production as anyone else in the league under the age of 30.
 
I think too many make the mistake thinking if Sjax gets hurt, you score 0 points that week. That's why you draft depth and plug in a fairly good player when one of your starters goes down for a few games. As noted earlier, Sjax's PPG is near the top.

 
[quote name='Pip's Invitation' post='10698202' ADP is awesome, except when he is injured.

MJD is awesome, except when he he injured.

LT is awesome, except when he is injured.
Not for nothing, but which one of these 3 guys has missed a quarter of the season each of the last two years?

SJax is a big risk/reward player. If healthy, he should not go as the #6-7 pick. His stats would likely be top-5, maybe top-3 for RBs, regardless of the state of StL's offense. He will be involved if they are running the ball, and he will be involved if they are passing the ball. I don't even think Bulger getting hurt will negatively impact him much, because one would assume (hope) that Boller would still be able to throw screens and check-downs to his RB.

However, I have read several posters insist that if SJax gets hurt, you merely plug in another RB you drafted for depth to replace him and you still get good end-of-year numbers from that RB slot in your lineup.

That's not necessarily the case, though. With SJax, you get fairly reliable double-digit point production (FBG scoring, non-PPR) each week. Sure he has the occasional dud game, but he has more than his share of great games.

If you draft a "depth" RB, you're not going to get that kind of reliable production if SJax is out.

Assume you pick 7th & you take SJax in the first, then a second RB, or WR1 in the second. WR in the 3rd. At this point, you have either 2 RBs & 1 WR, or 1 RB & 2 WR. Assuming you take RB/WR in the 4th round to fill out your "core," you're left with a decision: Take my starting QB, take a 3rd WR (most of my leagues start 3 WR), starting TE, or take that "depth" RB to insure SJax? If you take a RB with the 55th pick, your choices are likely to be: LJ (ADP 52), Moreno (54), Ward (56), Parker (58), J. Stewart (59). Those aren' the most appealing options, and none of them (barring a big comeback from LJ) are liable to put up anywhere close to the numbers SJax would. Furthermore, you've weakened your starting lineup to account for a "depth" RB.

Assuming you take a QB, WR, or TE, you've strengthened your starting line-up, but still don't have that insurance for SJax. That leaves you with your 6th-round pick (#66). Again, you're faced with choice: my 3rd (starting) WR, TE, or depth for SJax? RBs available are likely to be : L White (67), Wells (73), Rice (74), or Benson (75). None of these RBs are going to come close (IMO) to replicating SJax's numbers.

Without going through an entire mock draft, the bottom line is this: if you subscribe to the idea that drafting SJax doesn't pose any risk because you can just plug in another RB if he gets hurt isn't entirely accurate. With SJax, you get a weekly advantage at that RB spot against most other RBs. Without him, you lose that advantage. What had been a strength, becomes a weakness. Sure, you don't go from his 15.9 PPG (again, non-PPR) to zero, but you do likely drop from 15.9 PPG to around 10 (LJ, Ward, Parker, Stewart all averaged about 10 PPG last year).

If you draft a RB earlier, in order to prevent this drop and insure yourself against SJax possible missing games, you hurt other areas of your lineup.

So, as I said earlier, SJax is a risk/reward pick. If you believe in the adage "you can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it," you probably don't want to take SJax. If you believe that the only way to win big is by taking risks, then SJax might be your guy.

 
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6.3 233lbs, has WR hands, and runs like a god on fire. That's what I like about him. His dreads are pretty cool too I guess.
And the 5 games every year he's hurt?I traded him last season in 2 leagues. Time to cut bait. In one league got Thomas Jones, Steve Smith and rookie that became Hakeem Nicks.In other Greg Jennings and picks that became Shonne Greene(have Thomas), Andre Brown :confused: , and other players(Cullen Jenkins/Folk/Revis). Got tired of losing him every year and never having a decent handcuff.
 
For God's sake can you use the search function for "Steven Jackson?"

We've had this discussion like 5 times this offseason.
Patience, young Skywalker. Really that big a deal?
Normally, no. But seriously, this EXACT thread pops up every two weeks this offseason. It's ridiculous. There is practically more information and discussion about Steven Jackson on this board than there is about any person on any forum in the entire rest of the world. It's just the exact same argument, following the exact same flow, with the exact same points brought up, over and over and over and over and over again.There is more information than you could possibly ever want about Jackson in just the first of these threads listed below, but I'll provide a couple of them just in case:

Why does Sjax keep getting the love?, Could be wrong but I don't get it.

Player Spotlight: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Who will have the better season? D Williams or S Jackson

I was really beginning to wonder how people could possibly be so blind as to see what Sjax has going for him, but apparently since it's the same people who start threads asking about it THREE DAYS after several other people just did the same, I should no longer be surprised.

 
Steven Jackson is top three if you ask me, if he had the offensive line of the Vikings or someone like that then imagine him running. The Rams have no offensive line, how is he not in the top three when he has one of the worst O lines in the league and still puts up the numbers.

 
Steven Jackson is top three if you ask me, if he had the offensive line of the Vikings or someone like that then imagine him running. The Rams have no offensive line, how is he not in the top three when he has one of the worst O lines in the league and still puts up the numbers.
That is the big if. He doesn't and has a very physical running style. Maybe in in 2-3 years he will. You are saying he should be top 3 because he plays for a bad team? Fantasy is about production.
 
Steven Jackson is top three if you ask me, if he had the offensive line of the Vikings or someone like that then imagine him running. The Rams have no offensive line, how is he not in the top three when he has one of the worst O lines in the league and still puts up the numbers.
That is the big if. He doesn't and has a very physical running style. Maybe in in 2-3 years he will. You are saying he should be top 3 because he plays for a bad team? Fantasy is about production.
Although what you are saying is true, people keep talking about Adrian Peterson and he has one of the best offensive lines. He doesn't even get touched until he has at least 5 yards on an average. He doesn't have to break tackles or actually do what a running back does as much as someone like Steven Jackson who earns just about every yard he gets. I'm not saying Adrian Peterson isn't a good running back, I just don't think he would put up the numbers that he does put up if he had Jackson's line.
 
So of those of you who are worried about S-Jax how many will pass him up if he falls to you near the end of round one in a PPR 12 team league? I have The 10th pick and am thinking he may fall to me.

 
For God's sake can you use the search function for "Steven Jackson?"

We've had this discussion like 5 times this offseason.
Patience, young Skywalker. Really that big a deal?
Normally, no. But seriously, this EXACT thread pops up every two weeks this offseason. It's ridiculous. There is practically more information and discussion about Steven Jackson on this board than there is about any person on any forum in the entire rest of the world. It's just the exact same argument, following the exact same flow, with the exact same points brought up, over and over and over and over and over again.There is more information than you could possibly ever want about Jackson in just the first of these threads listed below, but I'll provide a couple of them just in case:

Why does Sjax keep getting the love?, Could be wrong but I don't get it.

Player Spotlight: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Who will have the better season? D Williams or S Jackson

I was really beginning to wonder how people could possibly be so blind as to see what Sjax has going for him, but apparently since it's the same people who start threads asking about it THREE DAYS after several other people just did the same, I should no longer be surprised.
Here's the deal. Though I have mad respect for FBG and the Shark Pool as a whole, I simply don't have time to read threads very often. Since I don't hang here often, it did not occur to me use the SEARCH function. My bad. I had a question I was looking for some insights on and thought I'd post it to folks smarter than me to chime in on. Normally I wouldn't take the time to respond to this, but this is clearly very important for you. Maybe this will help you cut folks some slack in the future and not insult there intelligence. But thanks for the links.
 
millerarm said:
FreeBaGeL said:
millerarm said:
Instinctive said:
For God's sake can you use the search function for "Steven Jackson?"

We've had this discussion like 5 times this offseason.
Patience, young Skywalker. Really that big a deal?
Normally, no. But seriously, this EXACT thread pops up every two weeks this offseason. It's ridiculous. There is practically more information and discussion about Steven Jackson on this board than there is about any person on any forum in the entire rest of the world. It's just the exact same argument, following the exact same flow, with the exact same points brought up, over and over and over and over and over again.There is more information than you could possibly ever want about Jackson in just the first of these threads listed below, but I'll provide a couple of them just in case:

Why does Sjax keep getting the love?, Could be wrong but I don't get it.

Player Spotlight: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Who will have the better season? D Williams or S Jackson

I was really beginning to wonder how people could possibly be so blind as to see what Sjax has going for him, but apparently since it's the same people who start threads asking about it THREE DAYS after several other people just did the same, I should no longer be surprised.
Here's the deal. Though I have mad respect for FBG and the Shark Pool as a whole, I simply don't have time to read threads very often. Since I don't hang here often, it did not occur to me use the SEARCH function. My bad. I had a question I was looking for some insights on and thought I'd post it to folks smarter than me to chime in on. Normally I wouldn't take the time to respond to this, but this is clearly very important for you. Maybe this will help you cut folks some slack in the future and not insult there intelligence. But thanks for the links.
Nobody likes over-zealous board police. But again, you are only shorting yourself by not searching for more in-depth threads. Freebal did you a favor by linking to those threads.
 
Most of his points came in two games last year and one of those was in week 17. Im just saying I can see why a lot of people are down on him. I think the Rams could have the worst offense in football so I want no part of him.

 
Sjax has a weak schedule and a amazing PPG stats.

In PPR - Sjax is a goldmine. I easy have Jax as my #5 overall after AD,mjd,forte,and Turner

 
millerarm said:
Here's the deal. Though I have mad respect for FBG and the Shark Pool as a whole, I simply don't have time to read threads very often. Since I don't hang here often, it did not occur to me use the SEARCH function.
Perhaps you should make a little more time to do some research if you expect to have the player knowledge base needed to be successful at this hobby. Cliffs notes are great but you're basically asking people to go buy them, hand them to you on a silver platter, and then read them to you. Those who DO spend the time and have the knowledge base you seek to glean info from are the very ones who will avoid this thread because they've already dropped that insight into a similar thread 4 days ago, and a week and a half ago, and 3 weeks ago. As stated before, in the future you'll get BETTER information by just doing a quick search. :lmao:Not attacking just pointing out what you're trying to do here.
 
Sjax has a weak schedule and a amazing PPG stats.
I think this statement is a bit misleading. Simply adding up his stats and dividing by games played doesn't really tell the whole story. Yes, that method reveals a solid average score per game... however looking at the data paints a slightly different picture. SJAX 2008 Game By Game Stats
Code:
1	STL	PHI	14	40	0	7	3	34	0	7.4	BAD2	STL	NYG	13	53	0	7	7	37	0	9.0	BAD3	STL	SEA	23	66	0	5	5	62	0	12.8	4	STL	BUF	24	110	1	6	5	78	0	24.8	GREAT6	STL	WAS	22	79	0	5	3	32	0	11.1	7	STL	DAL	25	160	3	3	2	16	0	35.6	GREAT9	STL	ARI	7	17	0	2	0	0	0	1.7	BAD13	STL	MIA	21	94	0	3	1	16	0	11.0	14	STL	ARI	19	64	0	5	4	3	1	12.7	]15	STL	SEA	24	91	1	5	4	36	0	18.7	ABOVE AVERAGE16	STL	SF	32	108	0	8	2	11	0	11.9
SJAX played in 11 out of 16 "fantasy season" games last year. Of those 11 weeks his production was this:• 2 of 11 weeks, he posted Great numbers and could have won your week for you• 1 of 11 weeks he posted Above average numbers• 5 of 11 weeks he posted Average or slightly below average numbers• 3 of 11 weeks he posted Bad numbers and could have cost you the game that weekThose who are "down" on SJAX are down on him for this very reason. Not only is he subject to more wear and tear than the average back (due to being THE centerpiece behind a terrible OLine), but that very OLine, coupled with his surrounding cast, makes him prone to very erratic fantasy performance.
 
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His line is actually pretty talented. As long as they can stay healthy and play together a little bit, they should be good.

 
Simply adding up his stats and dividing by games played doesn't really tell the whole story. Yes, that method reveals a solid average score per game... however looking at the data paints a slightly different picture. SJAX 2008 Game By Game Stats

Code:
1	STL	PHI	14	40	0	7	3	34	0	7.4	BAD2	STL	NYG	13	53	0	7	7	37	0	9.0	BAD3	STL	SEA	23	66	0	5	5	62	0	12.8	4	STL	BUF	24	110	1	6	5	78	0	24.8	GREAT6	STL	WAS	22	79	0	5	3	32	0	11.1	7	STL	DAL	25	160	3	3	2	16	0	35.6	GREAT9	STL	ARI	7	17	0	2	0	0	0	1.7	BAD13	STL	MIA	21	94	0	3	1	16	0	11.0	14	STL	ARI	19	64	0	5	4	3	1	12.7	]15	STL	SEA	24	91	1	5	4	36	0	18.7	ABOVE AVERAGE16	STL	SF	32	108	0	8	2	11	0	11.9
SJAX played in 11 out of 16 "fantasy season" games last year. Of those 11 weeks his production was this:• 2 of 11 weeks, he posted Great numbers and could have won your week for you• 1 of 11 weeks he posted Above average numbers• 5 of 11 weeks he posted Average or slightly below average numbers• 3 of 11 weeks he posted Bad numbers and could have cost you the game that week
I understand those numbers, but also think they mislead to a degree. SJax held out last August and went into the season behind. Those of us who owned him didn't expect him to start well. And his small number of carries show that.And week 9 he re-injured himself.He's healthy and in camp now.So I'd ignore Weeks 1-2, and 9.
 
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SJAX played in 11 out of 16 "fantasy season" games last year.
Just because most fantasy leagues don't factor in the final week of the season doesn't mean you can take that out of the equation when it comes to Jackson. If I remember correctly, Atlanta was still fighting for playoff positioning in that game and played the Rams very hard. Yet Jackson still had a massive day.
 
why are you discounting week 17? we're trying to predict this season.
I'm simply showing how he would have helped your fantasy team last year. I don't own SJAX in any leagues and am not down or up on the guy. Had he has a week of 1.9 stats I would have excluded it as well as it had no bearing on the fantasy season. I'm simply trying to be as objective as possible in representing his impact on the 2008 fantasy football season.
 
why are you discounting week 17? we're trying to predict this season.
I'm simply showing how he would have helped your fantasy team last year. I don't own SJAX in any leagues and am not down or up on the guy. Had he has a week of 1.9 stats I would have excluded it as well as it had no bearing on the fantasy season. I'm simply trying to be as objective as possible in representing his impact on the 2008 fantasy football season.
week 17 is just as relevant as any other week when trying to use the data to predict future performance. excluding it is wrong.
 
Simply adding up his stats and dividing by games played doesn't really tell the whole story. Yes, that method reveals a solid average score per game... however looking at the data paints a slightly different picture. SJAX 2008 Game By Game Stats

Code:
1	STL	PHI	14	40	0	7	3	34	0	7.4	BAD2	STL	NYG	13	53	0	7	7	37	0	9.0	BAD3	STL	SEA	23	66	0	5	5	62	0	12.8	4	STL	BUF	24	110	1	6	5	78	0	24.8	GREAT6	STL	WAS	22	79	0	5	3	32	0	11.1	7	STL	DAL	25	160	3	3	2	16	0	35.6	GREAT9	STL	ARI	7	17	0	2	0	0	0	1.7	BAD13	STL	MIA	21	94	0	3	1	16	0	11.0	14	STL	ARI	19	64	0	5	4	3	1	12.7	]15	STL	SEA	24	91	1	5	4	36	0	18.7	ABOVE AVERAGE16	STL	SF	32	108	0	8	2	11	0	11.9
SJAX played in 11 out of 16 "fantasy season" games last year. Of those 11 weeks his production was this:• 2 of 11 weeks, he posted Great numbers and could have won your week for you• 1 of 11 weeks he posted Above average numbers• 5 of 11 weeks he posted Average or slightly below average numbers• 3 of 11 weeks he posted Bad numbers and could have cost you the game that week
I understand those numbers, but also think they mislead to a degree. SJax held out last August and went into the season behind. Those of us who owned him didn't expect him to start well. And his small number of carries show that.And week 9 he re-injured himself.He's healthy and in camp now.So I'd ignore Weeks 1-2, and 9.
I'll give you 1-2 to a degree, however do you think that folks had him in their starting lineups those weeks? Unfortunately there is no crystal ball in FF so if someone gets hurt, then you're stuck with the low score. Sure, you can't predict injuries, but part of FF is also seeing a trend forming and factoring that into your analysis. I'm not arguing that SJAX is a bum... or that I wouldn't draft him. I certainly would if the cards presented themselves right. But I would do so knowing this information.You can twist/debate the numbers however you want, but the basic point of the matter is that he was awesome for 2 weeks of the fantasy season last week... very good for 1... and actually was a detriment for about half the season.
 
why are you discounting week 17? we're trying to predict this season.
I'm simply showing how he would have helped your fantasy team last year. I don't own SJAX in any leagues and am not down or up on the guy. Had he has a week of 1.9 stats I would have excluded it as well as it had no bearing on the fantasy season. I'm simply trying to be as objective as possible in representing his impact on the 2008 fantasy football season.
week 17 is just as relevant as any other week when trying to use the data to predict future performance. excluding it is wrong.
I'm presenting data as to how he helped/hurt teams during the 2008 season in an effort to show WHY some folks dislike SJAX. If you wish to include week 17 data, then fine. Out of 12 weeks he had:• 3 great weeks• 1 Above average week• 5 Average/ Slightly Below Average weeks• 3 Bad Weeks• 4 Weeks Did not contributeIf you want to ignore his holdout and insisted on project his likely output for those 2 games (which is risky at best) then I think it's safe to say (looking at the means) he might have had 1 Above average and 1 average week), putting him at:• 3 great weeks • 2 Above average weeks• 6 average / Slightly Below Average weeks• 1 bad week• 4 weeks did not contributePoint here is to simply limit enthusiasm about his "point per game" totals as he tends to produce in a somewhat hot or miss fashion. Not saying it's a reason to not draft him. He's a great RB1. Just presenting the other side of the coin to the "points per game" argument. Sorry if my breakdowns upset folks. Just posting data to educate prospective drafters :wub:
 
I'll give you 1-2 to a degree, however do you think that folks had him in their starting lineups those weeks? Unfortunately there is no crystal ball in FF so if someone gets hurt, then you're stuck with the low score. Sure, you can't predict injuries, but part of FF is also seeing a trend forming and factoring that into your analysis. I'm not arguing that SJAX is a bum... or that I wouldn't draft him. I certainly would if the cards presented themselves right. But I would do so knowing this information.You can twist/debate the numbers however you want, but the basic point of the matter is that he was awesome for 2 weeks of the fantasy season last week... very good for 1... and actually was a detriment for about half the season.
We all look at numbers in our own way of course. I didn't start him weeks 1,2, or 9. So I see an average of 17.35 pts/game in the games I did start him...and nothing lower than 11 points.
 
Sjax has a weak schedule and a amazing PPG stats.
I think this statement is a bit misleading. Simply adding up his stats and dividing by games played doesn't really tell the whole story. Yes, that method reveals a solid average score per game... however looking at the data paints a slightly different picture. SJAX 2008 Game By Game Stats
Code:
1	STL	PHI	14	40	0	7	3	34	0	7.4	BAD2	STL	NYG	13	53	0	7	7	37	0	9.0	BAD3	STL	SEA	23	66	0	5	5	62	0	12.8	4	STL	BUF	24	110	1	6	5	78	0	24.8	GREAT6	STL	WAS	22	79	0	5	3	32	0	11.1	7	STL	DAL	25	160	3	3	2	16	0	35.6	GREAT9	STL	ARI	7	17	0	2	0	0	0	1.7	BAD13	STL	MIA	21	94	0	3	1	16	0	11.0	14	STL	ARI	19	64	0	5	4	3	1	12.7	]15	STL	SEA	24	91	1	5	4	36	0	18.7	ABOVE AVERAGE16	STL	SF	32	108	0	8	2	11	0	11.9
SJAX played in 11 out of 16 "fantasy season" games last year. Of those 11 weeks his production was this:• 2 of 11 weeks, he posted Great numbers and could have won your week for you• 1 of 11 weeks he posted Above average numbers• 5 of 11 weeks he posted Average or slightly below average numbers• 3 of 11 weeks he posted Bad numbers and could have cost you the game that weekThose who are "down" on SJAX are down on him for this very reason. Not only is he subject to more wear and tear than the average back (due to being THE centerpiece behind a terrible OLine), but that very OLine, coupled with his surrounding cast, makes him prone to very erratic fantasy performance.
The whole point is that you aren't drafting him for last season -- you are drafting him for this season. So excluding week 17 when he trashed a solid team that was playing its starters is silly. Who cares that week 17 didn't matter last season? The skill that was demonstrated in week 17 will count for THIS season. And his relative consistency versus other top backs has been addressed before (read the DWill vs. SJacks thread, for instance). Although I guess this 'predictive value of week 17' point has been addressed before, too. Oh well...
 
I'll give you 1-2 to a degree, however do you think that folks had him in their starting lineups those weeks? Unfortunately there is no crystal ball in FF so if someone gets hurt, then you're stuck with the low score. Sure, you can't predict injuries, but part of FF is also seeing a trend forming and factoring that into your analysis. I'm not arguing that SJAX is a bum... or that I wouldn't draft him. I certainly would if the cards presented themselves right. But I would do so knowing this information.You can twist/debate the numbers however you want, but the basic point of the matter is that he was awesome for 2 weeks of the fantasy season last week... very good for 1... and actually was a detriment for about half the season.
We all look at numbers in our own way of course. I didn't start him weeks 1,2, or 9. So I see an average of 17.35 pts/game in the games I did start him...and nothing lower than 11 points.
Correct, but then you spent a 1st round pick on a guy that you started 8 weeks, 3 of which were great or above replacement level. This year he could roll off a full season and post 4-5 Great or above average weeks... or it could be another season like last year. My only point is there is very likely more risk and inconsistency associated with an SJAX pick in the early 1st round.
 
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I gotta say- i just looked at my cheatsheets and did a pretty big double take when I saw i put Jackson ahead of LT2 in a redraft league. Definitely one of those things where you compile numbers that seem reasonable and have to compare the results to your gut instinct.

Here's the thing- Jackson will put up good numbers if he stays healthy. But will he put up great numbers? Unlikely. Sjax is a 5-10 guy, but you buy him on the high end of that purely because of consistency, IE the other 5-10 guys have some question marks. Whether that is a good idea depends purely on how you are building your team.

That being said, there is no way I pull the trigger this season on SJax over Tomlinson, regardless of how i forecast their numbers. At some point you just have to weigh raw talent into the equation regardless of splitting time or how the ball is spread.

 
I just took him at 2.03 in a 12 team redraft as my RB1 to pair up with Fitz. The only other RB's still on the board I would have considered were Jacobs and Portis. From there it was a dropoff to Ronnie Brown, Pierre, Kevin Smith, Barber, Grant, etc.

At that point, I couldn't pass up his potential. (Slaton went 1 pick before me which was really painful.) Jacobs himself is an injury risk and Portis has mileage/Betts concerns. This will affect my draft strategy because I will most certainly be taking another RB in the 3/4 turn while I might have considered 2 WR's or maybe a QB/TE instead (we start 2RB & 3WR) if I had a different RB that I felt more confident about playing all year.

 
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Most of his points came in two games last year and one of those was in week 17. Im just saying I can see why a lot of people are down on him. I think the Rams could have the worst offense in football so I want no part of him.
The top 3 RBs in points per game last year were DeAngelo, Turner, and SJax.46% of DeAngelo Williams' points came in 4 games (25% of his season).45% of Michael Turner's points came in 4 games (25% of his season).49% of Steven Jackson's points came in 3 games (25% of his season).This just in: stud RBs sometimes have huge games. More at 11.
I'm presenting data as to how he helped/hurt teams during the 2008 season in an effort to show WHY some folks dislike SJAX. If you wish to include week 17 data, then fine. Out of 12 weeks he had:• 3 great weeks• 1 Above average week• 5 Average/ Slightly Below Average weeks• 3 Bad Weeks• 4 Weeks Did not contributeIf you want to ignore his holdout and insisted on project his likely output for those 2 games (which is risky at best) then I think it's safe to say (looking at the means) he might have had 1 Above average and 1 average week), putting him at:• 3 great weeks • 2 Above average weeks• 6 average / Slightly Below Average weeks• 1 bad week• 4 weeks did not contributePoint here is to simply limit enthusiasm about his "point per game" totals as he tends to produce in a somewhat hot or miss fashion. Not saying it's a reason to not draft him. He's a great RB1. Just presenting the other side of the coin to the "points per game" argument. Sorry if my breakdowns upset folks. Just posting data to educate prospective drafters :pickle:
If someone wants to use that analysis on SJax as a reason not to draft him, then fine... just do the same analysis on every other RB, too.Steven Jackson had 3 games where he only scored single digits. That represents 25% of his season. Michael Turner had... 4 games where he only scored single digits. That represents 25% of his season. DeAngelo Williams had FIVE games where he only scored single digits. That represents 31% of his season.Steven Jackson had a comparable PPG total to Turner and Williams, and a comparable bust rate to them, as well... yet somehow only SJax has his bust rate held against him. It's true that he had a higher percentage of low-end double digit performances, but low-end double digit performances aren't any great sin in fantasy football- Steven Jackson had 5 games with 11-13 fantasy points, but only 18 RBs averaged as much as 11 fantasy points a week, which hardly makes a 12.7 point game a "liability" like some people seem to think.Take week 3 last year, for instance. Jackson scored 12.8 points, which ranked 25th among RBs... which would seem like a bad thing, until you look at some of the RBs that beat him. Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, LeRon McClain, LenDale White, Chris Perry, Correll Buckhalter, Pierre Thomas, Felix Jones... none of these guys would have seen a starting lineup in week 3. Several other guys would have still been on the bench in some leagues (Reggie Bush, Matt Forte, Rudi Johnson, Willis McGahee, Fred Taylor). Take out the guys who were probably on benches and suddenly Steven Jackson's "below average" 12.8 points rank in the 12-18 range... which is pretty reasonable. Not a great performance, but not a liability, either. I'm okay with my RB1 getting me a handful of 12 point games... as long as he throws in some 25+ point games to make up for it down the road.
 
The first thing I will do when I arrive to the draft is to announce "SJax looks like a monster in pre-season" and then I'll hand out some old FF mags hoping my competition take him early in the draft. I want no part of this guy.

 
Any player that gets 100+ yards 8 out of 11 full games played is consistent. TDs are inconsistent for MOST players, as is evidenced below.

You think Jackson supporters should take off their rose colored glasses and see Jackson as a RB2... well, using your consistency criteria, let's look at the 6th through 12th ranked RBs last year:

Slaton:

over 16 pts : 6g

10 - 15.9 : 6

under 10 : 4

8 of 16 games played w/out TD

LT:

over 16 pts : 5

10 - 15.9 : 7

under 10 : 4

8 of 16 games w/out TD

Portis:

over 16 pts : 4

10 - 15.9 : 7

under 10 : 5

9 of 16 games w/out TD

MJD:

over 16 pts : 7

10 - 15.9 : 3

under 10 : 6

7 of 16 games w/out TD

Westbrook:

over 16 pts : 5

10 - 15.9 : 2

under 10 : 9 (2 missed games)

8 of of 14 games w/out TD

Chris Johnson:

over 16 pts : 6g

10 - 15.9 : 3

under 10 : 7 (1 missed game)

7 of 15 games w/out TD

Jacobs:

over 16 pts : 6

10 - 15.9 : 3

under 10 : 7 (3 missed games)

4 of 13 games w/out TD

~~~~

So, the profile of a RB1, based on last year's top12 (all 12, not just the 7 in this post):

6.6 games 16+ pts

4.2 games 10-15.9

5.2 games under 10

Normalized for games actually played, since we are using this information to evaluate for the upcoming season and cannot accurately predict injuries:

6.8 games 16+ pts

4.3 games 10-15.9

4.9 games under 10

Jackson's 12 games normalized to 16:

5.3 games 16+ pts

6.7 games 10-15.9

4.0 games under 10

Inconsistent?

Unless you use last year's games missed as the baseline going forward (Tom Brady is going to miss 15 games!!!), you cannot use missed games in this kind of analysis. Is a currently healthy Steven Jackson going to miss 4 games in 2009? Maybe. He has averaged about 14 games played in 5 years. But I encourage anybody that thinks they can predict RB injuries to look at the data.... a huge percentage of RBs miss time every year.

Considering Jackson a RB2 going forward is not reasonable, IMO. The risk of injury to any RB is significant.

I did a survey of last year's preseason consensus top 30 RBs HERE.

Cliff's notes: 7 out of the top 10 and 13 out of the top 20 missed games due to injury.

I don't see how you can normalize his production over 16 games using this type of analysis. Jackson could just have easily had boom and bust games had he played in the additional 4 games.

Last year, if you remove his top 2 games, his average PPG drops from 17.5 to 12.5. I love Jackson - I've owned him 2 years in my money league, love to watch him run, but I feel that he is too inconsistent to draft at his ADP and cannot find a reason to rank him so highly.

Not sure what your scoring system is, but using FBG standard scoring and the game summaries (regular season only) from FBG, I get this:

Jackson 2008 PPG: 15.9

Jackson 2008 PPG removing best 2 games: 12.1

As a point of comparison lets look at Adrian Peterson -

Peterson 2008 PPG: 14.2

Peterson 2008 PPG removing best 2 games: 12.5

You can play this game with EVERY player. All this tells me is SJax is a huge value IF he stays healthy, and there is no reason to predict he'll get hurt any more than the average RB would.

 
When playing healthy, Jackson 75% of the time he goes over 100 yards, and he went under 7 points only once last season.

75% of the time you get double digits from Jackson. 91% of the time you get at least 7 points.

He had a better percentage of games over ten points than Thomas Jones, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams.

Should I also not take Peterson?

ETA: Here is the evidence for my above claims.

1 @PHI L 38-3 14 40 2.9 9 0 3 34 11.3 24 0 0 0 - fantasy points = 7.4

2 NYG L 41-13 13 53 4.1 15 0 7 37 5.3 22 0 0 0 - fantasy points = 9

3 @SEA L 37-13 23 66 2.9 8 0 5 62 12.4 50 0 1 0 - fantasy points = 12.8

4 BUF L 31-14 24 110 4.6 29 1 5 78 15.6 53 0 0 0 fantasy points = 24.8

5 Bye Week

6 @WAS W 19-17 22 79 3.6 9 0 3 32 10.7 15 0 1 1 fantasy points = 11.1

7 DAL W 34-14 25 160 6.4 56 3 2 16 8.0 9 0 0 0 fantasy points = 35.6

8 @NE L 23-16 Did Not Play or did not accumulate any stats. fantasy points = 0

9 ARI L 34-13 7 17 2.4 10 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0 fantasy points = 1.7

10 @NYJ L 47-3 Did Not Play or did not accumulate any stats. fantasy points = 0

11 @SF L 35-16 Did Not Play or did not accumulate any stats. fantasy points =0

12 CHI L 27-3 Did Not Play or did not accumulate any stats. fantasy points = 0

13 MIA L 16-12 21 94 4.5 13 0 1 16 16.0 16 0 0 0 fantasy points = 11

14 @ARI L 34-10 18 63 3.5 32 0 4 3 0.8 9 1 2 2 fantasy points = 12.7

15 SEA L 23-20 24 91 3.8 15 1 4 36 9.0 11 0 0 0 fantasy points = 18.7

16 SF L 17-16 32 108 3.4 12 0 2 11 5.5 7 0 0 0 fantasy points = 11.9

17 @ATL L 31-27 30 161 5.4 36 2 4 54 13.5 36 0 0 0 fantasy points = 33.5

And the evidence for the other RBs that I mentioned:

1 RB Williams, DeAngelo CAR 16 274 1518 18 22 121 2 0 283.9 Williams' game logs

Weeks over 16 fantasy points = 9 (this would be = to 100 yards combined + 1 TD or more in a 1/10 yardage 6 pt TD league).

Weeks between 10-15.9 fantasy points = 2 (at least 100 yards combined, 0 TD)

Weeks below 10 fantasy points = 5

2 RB Turner, Michael ATL 16 377 1699 17 6 41 0 2 276.0 Turner's game logs

Weeks over 16 fantasy points = 7 (this would be = to 100 yards combined + 1 TD or more in a 1/10 yardage 6 pt TD league).

Weeks between 10-15.9 fantasy points = 5 (at least 100 yards combined, 0 TD)

Weeks below 10 fantasy points = 4

3 RB Peterson, Adrian MIN 16 364 1757 10 21 125 0 4 248.2 Peterson's game logs

Weeks over 16 fantasy points = 9 (this would be = to 100 yards combined + 1 TD or more in a 1/10 yardage 6 pt TD league).

Weeks between 10-15.9 fantasy points = 3 (at least 100 yards combined, 0 TD)

Weeks below 10 fantasy points = 4

4 RB Forte, Matt CHI 16 315 1231 8 64 484 4 1 243.5 Matt Forte Game Logs

Weeks over 16 fantasy points = 8 (this would be = to 100 yards combined + 1 TD or more in a 1/10 yardage 6 pt TD league).

Weeks between 10-15.9 fantasy points = 6 (at least 100 yards combined, 0 TD)

Weeks below 10 fantasy points = 2

5 RB Jones, Thomas NYJ 16 290 1312 13 36 207 2 1 241.9

Weeks over 16 fantasy points = 7 (this would be = to 100 yards combined + 1 TD or more in a 1/10 yardage 6 pt TD league).

Weeks between 10-15.9 fantasy points = 3 (at least 100 yards combined, 0 TD)

Weeks below 10 fantasy points = 5

 
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What's to love???? What's not to love???? Dreamy eyes, handsome, chiseled features ...and don't get started on those locks!! I pretty much love him.

 

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