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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)

I am very bearish on Google. Their AI sucks and for the first time in basically ever their core business, search, that funds all their other crappy businesses they can't capitalize on is actually showing signs that it may be at risk.

It's much easier/faster to ask an LLM a question than to google it and try to sift through the results. I wonder how long before more people catch on to that, and a narrative develops (as it's already starting to).

Both of which mean it will probably crush earnings and be up 20%.
 
How we feeling about Google tonight? Then Apple, Microsoft in two days. Rocket ships to the moon?!!?

Don’t forget thread favorite - SNAP
Somehow I have avoided this one! :lol:

I think most of us have but we like to watch!

I'm on that ride, but with just a small amount - actually made some money on the other half I initially bought. Fully expecting a 20% move. In what direction? <Nate Bargatze> Nobody knows......</Nate Bargatze>
 
I am very bearish on Google. Their AI sucks and for the first time in basically ever their core business, search, that funds all their other crappy businesses they can't capitalize on is actually showing signs that it may be at risk.

It's much easier/faster to ask an LLM a question than to google it and try to sift through the results. I wonder how long before more people catch on to that, and a narrative develops (as it's already starting to).

Both of which mean it will probably crush earnings and be up 20%.
Just saw a take from a fund manager who said that was one of their best quarters/reports in 7-10 years. He wasn't some loudmouth either, the opposite really.

Lest we forget the concerns about Google -- from AI headwinds to legal stuff -- are priced in, imo. It doesn't trade at a price relative to its peers. For example, Apple is at about a 33 P/E. Alphabet sits at 22.
 
I came here to ask about this UWMC dip. Yield back to 6%...

Would like to hear more from those that follow. I passively keep an eye on it, don't own any.
 
I came here to ask about this UWMC dip. Yield back to 6%...

Would like to hear more from those that follow. I passively keep an eye on it, don't own any.

Seems to follow what people are projecting will happen with mortgage rates. When everyone knew the fed was going to lower rates, it ran up under the assumption that mortgage rates would follow. But now that rates are actually increasing again (7% mortgages?) it's getting hurt.
 
I came here to ask about this UWMC dip. Yield back to 6%...

Would like to hear more from those that follow. I passively keep an eye on it, don't own any.

Seems to follow what people are projecting will happen with mortgage rates. When everyone knew the fed was going to lower rates, it ran up under the assumption that mortgage rates would follow. But now that rates are actually increasing again (7% mortgages?) it's getting hurt.

Yep, my thoughts too. Rates have been climbing like crazy since the Fed finally announced so UWMC has been headed in the opposite direction. This is also typically the slow time for the housing market going into the fall and winter. The hope for a catalyst would be rates start to go back down late in the year (hopefully after the election madness is settled soon) and into the Spring when the housing market heats back up. I am overweight on them as it is so haven't been adding more, just collecting my dividends (one earlier this month!)
 
$TMDX getting whacked because they missed analyst estimates. The company warned last quarter that this quarter would be lighter but the stock ran up anyway, as did analyst estimates. Probably a buying opportunity today or over the next couple weeks. Revenue up 64% YoY. Margins hit a little as they build out their fleet.
Are you an owner of this? Strong feelings one way or the other?
 
$TMDX getting whacked because they missed analyst estimates. The company warned last quarter that this quarter would be lighter but the stock ran up anyway, as did analyst estimates. Probably a buying opportunity today or over the next couple weeks. Revenue up 64% YoY. Margins hit a little as they build out their fleet.
Are you an owner of this? Strong feelings one way or the other?
Yes and I'm bullish. My cost basis is in the 40's, though. If I didn't have any, I'd buy maybe 1/3 of what I would buy and wait and see if it gets down to 70. As it is, I added a little today and will also wait and see if it pulls back more.
 
$SMCI being pummeled. Their independent auditor resigned.

“we are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”

Probably a good time to remember (or learn) that this was a dodgy company before they got pulled along in the AI frenzy. Wiki: “Supermicro settled with the SEC in August 2020 over violations in accounting practices between 2014 and 2017 by the company and its former chief financial officer, and agreed to pay $17.5 million in penalties. In 2018, the company was briefly delisted from the Nasdaq after delaying to file financial reports by nearly two years.”

Hindenburg shorted them earlier this year saying it seemed like they were doing it again and that they had brought in a lot of the people who did it the first time.
 
AMZN running up the escalator into the quarter, which is a perfect setup for falling down the elevator shaft afterwards :scared:
 
AMZN running up the escalator into the quarter, which is a perfect setup for falling down the elevator shaft afterwards :scared:
Yeah, I plan to use some to pay for a project at our future lot and I’m wondering if it might be a smart win-win move to sell enough for that before earnings. I won’t mind missing some gains on what I sell because the rest will go up and I won’t lose if something not great pops up.

With earnings, the mood that day overall can turn a good report ugly by picking that one bad thing and a good day can help ignore things like Google cloud overshadowed lower growth in Ads.

I also think that Amazon going last in the big guys takes a bit of luster out because you instantly get compared and it feels like everything has to be great.
 
$SMCI being pummeled. Their independent auditor resigned.

“we are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”

Probably a good time to remember (or learn) that this was a dodgy company before they got pulled along in the AI frenzy. Wiki: “Supermicro settled with the SEC in August 2020 over violations in accounting practices between 2014 and 2017 by the company and its former chief financial officer, and agreed to pay $17.5 million in penalties. In 2018, the company was briefly delisted from the Nasdaq after delaying to file financial reports by nearly two years.”

Hindenburg shorted them earlier this year saying it seemed like they were doing it again and that they had brought in a lot of the people who did it the first time.
Not submitting financials on time is the biggest of big red flags. Insta-sell for me if I owned it. Having your auditor call you out on hiding the red flag is the cherry on top.
 
Damn just saw AMD getting pummeled. Glad I pulled the rip cord on that one.

Yeah, this is painful. I sold a little at $170 so booked some LT gains but this isn't any fun today.

Didn't help the guy on CNBC yelling at me (seemingly), "it's PE is higher than NVIDIA's and it's not nearly as good a company. WHAT DID YOU EXPECT????"

Small position and I'm still up 40-50% on it, but it's in the Roth that I've been holding individual stocks in that I'm slowly selling and moving to index funds. So likely out of my portfolio shortly.
 
Anyone own Reddit? Totally forgot I was going to buy some of this after the initial IPO.

Wonder if they will credit me.
Reddit dude was interviewed on Cramer yesterday. Yes, I know Cramer is a bad word but what the CEO had to say might interest you is all. I'm sure you could find it.

And lol @ your credit due.
 
Maybe there is a better thread to ask this question, but I'm ~8 years from retirement and thinking of moving 20/30% of my 401K into VMFXX to get the ~4.5%. Right now I'm 100% invested an S&P fund so want to balance out the portfolio a bit.
 
Anyone own Reddit? Totally forgot I was going to buy some of this after the initial IPO.

Wonder if they will credit me.
Reddit dude was interviewed on Cramer yesterday. Yes, I know Cramer is a bad word but what the CEO had to say might interest you is all. I'm sure you could find it.

And lol @ your credit due.
I really don’t use Reddit but whenever I have some rando question, when I google it a Reddit thread inevitably pops up and there is usually some decent advice I can sift out of it 🤔
 
Maybe there is a better thread to ask this question, but I'm ~8 years from retirement and thinking of moving 20/30% of my 401K into VMFXX to get the ~4.5%. Right now I'm 100% invested an S&P fund so want to balance out the portfolio a bit.

Since you said this is a 401K and not a trading/short-term account, what are you really trying to accomplish? Do you just want to take some risk off the table? Are you trying to time the market with the goal of getting back in at some point (if so, how will you know when to get back in)? What will you do if rates fall to 3% or 3.5%?

I think once you're within 10 years of retirement, it may make sense to de-risk a bit (depending on where you are vs your target amount), and within 5 years most people are doing so. So you're right in that range. But is your long term plan S&P and cash? Some people do like to go into retirement with 3-5 years of spending safely in cash (or CDs or short-term bonds), is that what you're looking to do?

I'd suggest coming up with an asset allocation you want to have when you get to retirement, and then come up with the plan to get there, ie gradually over the next 8 years or all at once at some point. Use a tool like Portfolio Visualizer to test out different allocations via Monte Carlo simulations - try your 70/30, compare it to 100% Large Cap (S&P), look at a standard 60/40, or play around with more diversified strategies.

One thing you will find is that over long enough periods of time (like 8 years and a 30+ year retirement), holding 20-30% in cash will absolutely reduce your safe withdrawal rate. Maybe that's fine for your situation (you have more than you'll need), but just be aware of that.

Just suggesting some things to think about. And if you want to chat retirement planning and asset allocation in the FFA, The "I want to retire soon" thread is a good place to do so!
 
Maybe there is a better thread to ask this question, but I'm ~8 years from retirement and thinking of moving 20/30% of my 401K into VMFXX to get the ~4.5%. Right now I'm 100% invested an S&P fund so want to balance out the portfolio a bit.
Nothing wrong with this. Diversification is good for the soul.
 
Trusting someone who settled with the SEC for financial fraud on the company he founded while the Twin Towers were still up is just not in my risk profile. I'll lose money in new ways. Glllll peas.
 
Anyone own Reddit? Totally forgot I was going to buy some of this after the initial IPO.

Wonder if they will credit me.

I bought a little day one but it was more of a token "I love Reddit so I'll own a little" position than anything. Of course now I wish I went in bigger, but I honestly thought that going public would ruin what made it special / unique. Still could be the case - we'll see.
 
Anyone own Reddit? Totally forgot I was going to buy some of this after the initial IPO.

Wonder if they will credit me.

I bought a little day one but it was more of a token "I love Reddit so I'll own a little" position than anything. Of course now I wish I went in bigger, but I honestly thought that going public would ruin what made it special / unique. Still could be the case - we'll see.
I bought a little on day one also. Didn’t take long for me to think “Why do I own any Reddit?” and sold it soon after. Glad you’re on it.
 

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