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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

Sweet Jesus, MGM up another 6% after hours - doubling my position when it fell to $13 last week has paid off quickly.

Between MGM and DFS I’ve rocketed past my pre-crash levels.  :towelwave:
Up 17% here with nothing more than 5% of the portfolio weighting (excluding the Amazon and Google), but doing my best to screw it up.  Should just call it a win and dump it all in Amazon, but idiot me thinks I can keep the run going.

 
This is the best thread ever. I didn't get in as early as others, but some of the stocks I jumped in due to advice from folks here, have been crushing it - namely BLMN, DFS, SYF., MGM, KSS. Oh and of course CYDY. I can't thank you all enough! I will continue to try to offer helpful advice. I'm flat on BYND from my purchase on Monday but I do still think that will take off soon. 

 
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CNBC - Norwegian Cruise Line — Shares of the cruise line jumped 6% in extended trading after news broke that the company is furloughing about 20% of its employees through July 31. 

These headlines can only continue so much. I mean eventually, these people losing their jobs will be required to buy the products. But beyond that, this will just accelerate inequality and the inevitable backlash. 

 
Sweet Jesus, MGM up another 6% after hours - doubling my position when it fell to $13 last week has paid off quickly.

Between MGM and DFS I’ve rocketed past my pre-crash levels.  :towelwave:
If I had pushed in all my cash when I bought a bunch, I’d probably be up 20% or so from the top. I think I’m up 5% or so. Amazon is by far my biggest holding and that’s propped it up. ZM and CYDY helped a lot as well. Some stocks still well below the top but other new ones (long term holds still) were at ridiculous levels. I guess I got a bit worried their could be more of a drop but honestly they were bargains so I should have been smarter. Lesson learned and I’m relatively new to individual stocks, Amazon for 3 years and the rest the last year plus. I worked for a company for 10+ years and it got bought 2 years ago so about a year and a half ago that 401k got shut down and I put it in an IRA. It’s been fun and I’m amazed at how many 100%+ returns I have. Here’s to hoping it continues for the next 10 years. 

 
No doubt. I do not think anyone should be getting out......just if you have some cash....wait for the next leg down to put it to work. Because it is coming. 
On a stock like BLMN (which, btw good call, a lot of us made some $ on that), I remember you sold shortly after making a 50+% profit and thought it would revisit the previous levels around $6 for a re-buy opportunity. With the pop the last couple days, do you still think that will happen?  Do you think the restaurant sector would likely get hit hard if we would have another leg down?

 
@Capella, you still holding any Inovio (INO)? Looked in on it today, closed at $13.74

Well damn  :rant:   , price has held up from when I got out at just under $6

:banned:

ETA: My cost basis was just over $3

 
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@Capella, you still holding any Inovio (INO)? Looked in on it today, closed at $13.74

Well damn  :rant:   , price has held up from when I got out at just under $6

:banned:

ETA: My cost basis was just over $3
Nooooo I sold around 12. Did well on it. Think my cost basis was 5 something. :banned:  

 
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https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Inovio-Pharmaceuticals-Bad-Blood.pdf

I'm sure you've seen this. But seems like a lot of these companies are going to be frauds or failures. Nobody ever went broke selling winners. 
Thanks again, @sporthenry

In the long account I have, holding two Bio's. One is a handsome amount of CYDY, thanks @chet, and another that's at a $5 overall loss. Getting out of the loser tomorrow, I've had enough.

From here on out, holding on to cash and mining for extraction and OTR types. 

:banned:

 
Stocks that have likely outperformed recently (up 50%, 100%, 200%) are likely to be the same ones to sell off more in any pull back. That could change depending on what exactly the nature of the pullback is but presumably it will be due to a change in expectations for reopening and these companies with weak balance sheets will sell off again. EAT put up a decent quarter and the numbers during the quarantine were probably better than expected but still burning $5 million per day as long as they're shutdown. Think they said something like down 30%-35% would get them to cash flow neutral. So the rally in their stock was as much to do with the quarter as it was general optimism on the reopening. 

 
Yeah I went heavy about 3 weeks ago.  It’s up .32 after hours too.  Thinking about selling everything tomorrow , up 60% in retirement account.
Dang, +.60 now.  Some news I miss?   My longs are doing better than my short term plays these past couple of weeks.

 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-links-coronavirus-outbreak-in-remote-south-to-carnival-corp-cruise-ship-idUSKBN22C005

Australia links coronavirus outbreak in remote south to Carnival Corp cruise ship

Probably not surprising but given it seems like this thing will linger, how is anyone going to get on a cruise without a vaccine? I get flying but why would you sign up to get on a floating petri dish where the ventilation system contributes to the problem. Guess I'll have to read if they're even trying to fix the ventilation system. 

 
My co-worker swears by his "green" weedkiller formula: 1 gal vinegar, 1/2 cup of salt, 1 Tbs laundry detergent.  Have not tried it yet.
You can't use regular vinegar. You need 30% vinegar. You can order it online from HD. It works REALLY good on some weeds. Less good on others

 
General Malaise said:
Man, cruises are GREAT!   First, you get to wait in a long line that makes TSA security look like a line go buy a Slurpee to board your floating petri dish.  Once you spend several hours under fluorescent lights to board, you can unwind in the hot tub with fun and sexy strangers from the midwest.  Since you got a smoking hot deal on the cruise, you're shown to your estate room by a perky Romanian gal who waits by your door with her hand out for a tip.  Get used to that.  Also get used to the scenic beauty of the vast ocean.  After you stare at grey skies and murky water for several hours, you'll probably develop a hunger from some terrific cruise line food.  Don't worry, feeding several thousand people is easy and if you like the Golden Corral, you're in heaven, man.  After ingesting 3 lbs of jello salad and meat product, you'll probably need to take a massive dump in your plush bathroom.  You might want to practice wiping your butt in a phone booth before you onboard.  At night, you might want to take in some entertainment.  Surely they have some live bands or hip DJs on board, right?  If for whatever reason they didn't make it to your ship, you'll probably love drunk people doing Karaoke for the next 7 nights.  There's always excursions to keep you entertained; nothing like pulling into port and rushing out to find more businesses that are only there because of tourism.  More hands out.  More lines to get back on the boat.  More metal detectors and security pat-downs to make sure you didn't buy in booze to sneak back into their boat.  Can't be having folks drinking and not paying through the nose for their watered down drinks and crappy beers.  
I vote 3.

 
So anyone sitting on cash.....sit tight. That is my main point. There will be another chance to buy cheaper than this. And people don’t want to hear that...or believe that who sold at the bottom.....and never got back in. So they are panicking now that they are missing the rally and will be left behind. 
I've got a pile of cash and will be buying... my house.  

Housing market is crashing, dividends are being cut at a pace faster than 2008, auto industry is an abyss (sure as hell wouldn't want to be GM/Ford Credit at present).   Anti-fragile isn't a bad place to be right now.

 
I couldn’t do this star thing for a living. Absolutely sick to my stomach over Ziggy bad calls I made which resulted in a crappy day. Kicking myself from getting away from core strategies that have been successful

 
TDOC seems like lots of growth everywhere but the bottom line. Only off 1%. Would be pleased with that tomorrow.
I still wish I bought some when I decided to buy ZM, they were both sitting there in the 60s late last year.

That said, there Q1 wasn't really special and the forecast wasn't either. Revenue was literally a hair above consensus and earnings were below consensus. The consensus revenue for the year was $760M and they said $800-$825M. Normally, it would be good to see a forecast above consensus, but for a stock that has tripled in 6 months because CV has set expectations to be a huge boon for them, a forecast 5-8% above consensus for 2020 doesn't jive with a 200%+ stock price.

All that said, I am sure it will somehow be turned into good news for the market.

 
I've got a pile of cash and will be buying... my house.  

Housing market is crashing, dividends are being cut at a pace faster than 2008, auto industry is an abyss (sure as hell wouldn't want to be GM/Ford Credit at present).   Anti-fragile isn't a bad place to be right now.
I don’t think housing is crashing. Correction? Yes. And depending on regions, and prices points. Your not seeing a crash in housing like 2007-2009. Not the same. And housing is not inflated at all. It has moved up with the rate of normal inflation the last 10 years. 

I have never viewed a primary home as some great investment. Have I ever lost money in the homes I have lived in? No. I am about to buy my third home and am closing in June and will be living there at least the next 10-15 years.....maybe longer. Hard to say. But over the next 10-15 years I will make about what I always have on an average annual basis. Somewhere between 3-4% annually. 

Again......I have done far far better in stocks than residential real-estate.

Now......if you pay a home off and then rent it. Sure....it is a nice yield machine. But it comes with it’s costs and headaches too. 

I am not worried about 95% of my dividend paying stocks. They are solid as a rock. 

Never ever invested in the auto industry in my entire life.

I love stocks.....and no investment in the history of financial markets has ever been better that buying and owning high quality stocks. 

You sound like a doomsayer with that post. I am not optimistic for 2020. Captain obvious. 2021? We will be in full on recovery mode. Will it take a little bit? Yeah of course. But this was a self imposed recession. Not a credit crisis brought on by inflated asset prices based on a house of cards in the real estate market. 

Residential Real Estate right now is far stronger that it was in 2007 before the great recession happened. It is not even comparable. Will there be some discounting? Yeah. But if your thinking it will be what we saw 10-11 years ago you will be gravely disappointed. So don’t get your hopes up. And again it all depends on the region and location. 

High end housing.....those homes priced say 650 and up......will no doubt see a major slow down. In fact it was already going on for the past year or so. And I am only speaking about whatI am seeing in Broward County. South Florida is one of the most desirable destinations to live in. Our real estate market is still quite strong. The inventory for homes in great neighborhoods for under 600K is slim pickings. Homes above say 650K are all over the place. The jumbo market is dead. The move up buyer market is still doing very good.

Again a broad based housing crash? I don’t see it. A lot of people have a ton of equity in their homes. This is not like when people are buying with zero down and had no skin in the game. Not even close. 

Mortgage Forbearance programs are in full force, also mortgage modifications can happen too. 

 
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Stocks that have likely outperformed recently (up 50%, 100%, 200%) are likely to be the same ones to sell off more in any pull back. That could change depending on what exactly the nature of the pullback is but presumably it will be due to a change in expectations for reopening and these companies with weak balance sheets will sell off again. EAT put up a decent quarter and the numbers during the quarantine were probably better than expected but still burning $5 million per day as long as they're shutdown. Think they said something like down 30%-35% would get them to cash flow neutral. So the rally in their stock was as much to do with the quarter as it was general optimism on the reopening. 
Agreed. BLMN has mountains of debt. I expect when the market has another sell off (it will folks.....it just will) BLMN will sell off hard. Will it get down to $6.25-6.50 again? Probably not. But it can easily get down to the low 8’s..maybe even the high 7’s again. same with other restaurants, airlines and cruise stocks. 

 
Agreed. BLMN has mountains of debt. I expect when the market has another sell off (it will folks.....it just will) BLMN will sell off hard. Will it get down to $6.25-6.50 again? Probably not. But it can easily get down to the low 8’s..maybe even the high 7’s again. same with other restaurants, airlines and cruise stocks. 
Why do you foresee a sell-off? We are (insanely) opening things back up again slowly, people aren’t going to do another shutdown (foolishly) - I just see a lot of misplaced optimism right now but optimism is optimism. 
 

To clarify: I mean in the immediate future. Next 6 months. 

 
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I gave up 1.5% to the market today.  Absolutely a brutal day for me.  Tankers, TZA, CYDY, and too much cash.  Also didn't have any time to trade in a out of some stocks that offered call.
No need to keep score on how you're doing vs the rest of us dude. Seriously, it's ok. 

 
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Is DFS still a bargain to add more at 50?
Hopefully some people who are actually knowledgeable about this stuff can chime in, but in the meantime, here’s my take. If you’re intent on buying in, I’d only open a partial position right now and build on it later with the hopes of bringing that cost basis down. Long term, its current price still looks like a perfectly fine entry point; P/E ratio is about 6 and it’s  trading at ~50% of its 52w high. Short term, as others have noted, red-hot stocks like DFS could fall hardest in the event of a selloff — so there’s a chance you could get it cheaper later on. However, most of us have absolutely no business predicting the time/magnitude of the next pullback. As evidenced by the last month, you could miss out on a lot of gains by trying to wait for the next dip.

 
Why do you foresee a sell-off? We are (insanely) opening things back up again slowly, people aren’t going to do another shutdown (foolishly) - I just see a lot of misplaced optimism right now but optimism is optimism. 
 

To clarify: I mean in the immediate future. Next 6 months. 
I think it's because the warm fuzzies we feel are overshooting. Stock prices are basically down 10% and stocks went down at first because everything signaled them being overvalued by 10-15%. It's as if there was no unemployment issue or any economic impacts. I understand that the stock market is forward looking but part of that is also building in risk and the risk seems to have been priced out. It feels like January and the first few weeks in February when it seemed like every earnings report would find the one piece of good news and ignore the rest. Same with right now. Here are some excerpts:

Facebook earnings and user growth miss expectations, but stock still spikes

Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported mixed first-quarter earnings as the coronavirus emergency slowed digital advertising growth. But Google stock popped Wednesday as analysts turned more optimistic about the current June quarter.

Those headlines added $100B to their combined market cap.

 
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I think it's because the warm fuzzies we feel are overshooting. Stock prices are basically down 10% and stocks went down at first because everything signaled them being overvalued by 10-15%. It's as if the was no unemployment or economic impacts. I understand that the stock market is forward looking but part of that is also building in some risk and the risk seems to have been priced out. It feels like January and the first few weeks in February when it seemed like every earnings report would find the one piece of good news and ignore the rest. Same with right now. Here are some excerpts:

Facebook earnings and user growth miss expectations, but stock still spikes

Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported mixed first-quarter earnings as the coronavirus emergency slowed digital advertising growth. But Google stock popped Wednesday as analysts turned more optimistic about the current June quarter.

Those headlines added $100B to their combined market cap.
Your bolded part and the market cap are making my point for me. 
 

To be clear, I’m not saying it’s logical. 

 
No need to keep score on how you're doing vs the rest of us dude. Seriously, it's ok. 
Keeping score on how I'm doing.  Perfectly fine if all of you kick my ### as along as my ### isn't losing ground to the SP500.  Love hearing about people winning in this thread and lining up yachts and retirement homes.  Love hearing about the new guys just getting started kicking tail and getting excited about investing.  

 
High end housing.....those homes priced say 650 and up......will no doubt see a major slow down.
I always chuckle when I see numbers like this, considering there are only a few houses a year in my town priced at this low a level, and they are dumps or fixer-uppers. 
 

Not a humble brag, I’ve been a renter because I can’t afford to break into the market. 

 
Your bolded part and the market cap are making my point for me. 
 

To be clear, I’m not saying it’s logical. 
Got it. I was going off the question of why a sell off. I think we all see the disconnect, so the question isn't why a sell off, it's when.

The way I see it is that Q1 earnings were never going to be that bad unless 50% of a companies business was in China. My son was on Spring Break March 16-20. You could still walk into Costco and no one was wearing a mask or anything at the end of March. We had a handful of CV cases in NC at the end of March. It's funny because now Q1 earnings are causing pops when they are sort of meaningless. The market is on the one hand saying we don't care about unemployment because we are forward looking, but on the other past earnings are causing huge days. Big disconnect in my mind. I wish I deployed all my cash when I bought a bunch of stuff the week of 3/16, but I am still much lighter on cash that many. I was under 10%, but just sold a bit more to about double my cash and I'm still at about 15%. If it goes down a bit, I'll take a whack, but I'd like to invest it all and let it ride for the next 5+ years. I just didn't 100% realize that when I bought, it was the bottom (I don't think we'll blow past that).

 
Why do you foresee a sell-off? We are (insanely) opening things back up again slowly, people aren’t going to do another shutdown (foolishly) - I just see a lot of misplaced optimism right now but optimism is optimism. 
 

To clarify: I mean in the immediate future. Next 6 months. 
I suppose it doesn't necessarily have to sell off again. By the time 2Q results come out at the end of July/early August, things will likely be reopened. Most investors will probably be on the beach and not care. They'll look through 2Q results since we're open. Then the virus comes back around in the fall but the market cares less since we now have a vaccine in sight. 

But for me, you're more or less floating the market for a year plus in earnings now with more risks to the downside. And even getting a V recovery with 2021 earnings being flat to 2019 seems unlikely now. But we're now at 18x '19 earnings so if you discount 2021 earnings, you're adding 1-2x on that multiple. The only thing justifying that is the Fed. That may be all that matters but even then, the forward returns of the equity markets won't be great from here. So as someone suggested up thread, you're probably better off taking your money out of the market and picking up real estate or other assets that shake loose on main street then. 

This article does a better job of articulating my views on the markets. Note it's a few weeks old so valuations are more stretched and they even lowered their 2021 EPS target. But some logic how to look at 2021 earnings and discount back. 

https://www.dws.com/en-us/insights/cio-view/americas-cio-view/20200403-americas-cio-view/

 
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I always chuckle when I see numbers like this, considering there are only a few houses a year in my town priced at this low a level, and they are dumps or fixer-uppers. 
 

Not a humble brag, I’ve been a renter because I can’t afford to break into the market. 
You are in CA.

In South Florida 650K buys you a nice newer construction (under ten years old) The home I am building is over 850K. It will be our dream home.

In Cali they get’s you a fixer upper under 2500 sq feet.

Here it buys you a brand new 4000 square foot under air (3 car garage too) on a lake lot on about a 1/3 of an acre. Different markets. 

 
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Article Partially Explaining Bizarre Market Behavior

LINK for Todem
i read the article and I don’t buy that “gambling” or lack of gambling options is playing much of a factor in the market at all.  Governments basically just exposed to the entire world how they can arbitrarily print currency like it is Monopoly money. With that said—I do worry that the markets are doing what they were doing before. They were ignoring risk and were priced for perfection. The problem is that our economic environment is very risky and far from perfect—which could lead to some turbulence in the short to medium term.

For example—where i live in Southern California (Orange County) the covid numbers are growing—but there is pressure to open things up soon.  It’s almost like we are asking for a larger second wave.  This is always risky—but regardless—I think that long term—the outlook for stocks with solid balance sheets is strong—although I wouldn’t move money into the market right now. I’d probably hold and sit back and see how things play out a bit.    Not only that—as much as i like and trust Fauci—something felt and seemed forced about his excitement over remdesevir today to me. 

 
CytoDyn Reports Strong Results from eIND COVID-19 Patients Treated with Leronlimab; Majority of Patients Have Demonstrated Remarkable Recoveries

54 eINDs approved by FDA and 49 patients have been treated with leronlimab thus far

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/30/2024990/0/en/CytoDyn-Reports-Strong-Results-from-eIND-COVID-19-Patients-Treated-with-Leronlimab-Majority-of-Patients-Have-Demonstrated-Remarkable-Recoveries.html

VANCOUVER, Washington, April 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CytoDyn Inc. (OTC.QB: CYDY), (“CytoDyn” or the “Company"), a late-stage biotechnology company developing leronlimab (PRO 140), a CCR5 antagonist with the potential for multiple therapeutic indications, today announced updates on 49 COVID-19 patients who have received leronlimab under the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) emergency Investigational New Drug (eIND) program: 

Eleven (11) Patients in NY hospital: All treated patients were in Intensive Care Units (ICU) because of acute respiratory failure, eight of whom were intubated (placed on mechanical ventilation). One patient was not intubated because of poor baseline pulmonary status (history of lung cancer and had undergone bilateral upper lobectomy). Seven patients were organ-transplant recipients (six patients were renal-transplant recipients and one patient had a history of heart transplant) and were on immunosuppressive regimen. Ten patients were on dialysis and nine were on vasopressors during hospitalization. Despite their pre-existing and severe conditions, we believe we were able to save the lives of four patients. All patient blood samples were evaluated and important powerful results from the effect of leronlimab were demonstrated in almost all of these patients.  This data has been submitted to a prestigious journal and we expect the publication on Friday, May 1.

Twenty-three (23) patients in Southern California hospital: Six patients were in critical condition (intubated) and 17 patients were severely-ill, needing oxygen support. No death was reported. Out of 6 critical patients, all were intubated patients, 3 were extubated (taken off ventilator), 2 patients remain relatively stable and still breathing with the assistance of a ventilator and one patient has shown deterioration in respiratory parameters. Of 17 severe condition (but not critical) patients, 11 patients demonstrated improvement in respiratory parameters (8 of them were discharged from hospital, including one patient in the news, Samantha Mottet), 2 patients remain relatively stable, 2 have shown deterioration in respiratory parameters and information is pending for 2 recently treated patients.

Three (3) patients in Georgia hospital:  All three ICU patients were intubated and two of them had renal failure at the start of leronlimab treatment. Of these 3 patients, 2 were extubated (taken off ventilator) and 1 patient remains on a ventilator but improving.

One (1) patient in another NY hospital: Patient was taken off oxygen and discharged from hospital after leronlimab treatment.

One (1) patient in Northern California hospital: Patient is now weaning from ventilator and transferred to rehabilitation hospital.

Updates are pending for 10 other patients.  Five additional patients have been approved to receive leronlimab under eINDs, which increases the total eINDs approved by the FDA to 54 patients.

Bruce Patterson, M.D., Chief Executive Officer and founder of IncellDx, a diagnostics company and an advisor to CytoDyn, expanded on these findings by stating, “We are excited that patients are responding extremely well to leronlimab as expected from the novel mechanism of COVID-19 pathogenesis we discovered and will be reporting in the coming days.”

Nader Pourhassan, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of CytoDyn said, “We believe these results, although anecdotal, are very impressive and the number of patients treated under eIND is rapidly increasing. The enrollment for our Phase 2 double-blind and Phase 2b/3 trials is moving along rapidly and we believe the results from both studies will be very powerful due to the mechanism of action (MOA) of affecting the viral load and restoring the immune system. With our first major paper very close to publication, we expect to have a second paper published shortly thereafter, as our MOA is as unique as our results.”

 
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Why do you foresee a sell-off? We are (insanely) opening things back up again slowly, people aren’t going to do another shutdown (foolishly) - I just see a lot of misplaced optimism right now but optimism is optimism. 
 

To clarify: I mean in the immediate future. Next 6 months. 
My concern is when the infection and death rates kick back up. Not that we're necessarily shutting down but fear moves markets. 

Hopefully some people who are actually knowledgeable about this stuff can chime in, but in the meantime, here’s my take. If you’re intent on buying in, I’d only open a partial position right now and build on it later with the hopes of bringing that cost basis down. Long term, its current price still looks like a perfectly fine entry point; P/E ratio is about 6 and it’s  trading at ~50% of its 52w high. Short term, as others have noted, red-hot stocks like DFS could fall hardest in the event of a selloff — so there’s a chance you could get it cheaper later on. However, most of us have absolutely no business predicting the time/magnitude of the next pullback. As evidenced by the last month, you could miss out on a lot of gains by trying to wait for the next dip.
:2cents:

$50 is where I start to think it's just a hold. It will rise (I think) and is a value, but there will be better values to be had. 

 
I always chuckle when I see numbers like this, considering there are only a few houses a year in my town priced at this low a level, and they are dumps or fixer-uppers. 
 

Not a humble brag, I’ve been a renter because I can’t afford to break into the market. 
You're in a high end community, hcol. Around here $650k gets you a really nice place. Our home, 3500', large backyard, on top of a hill with a greenway behind us, great schools, is worth just a little more than half that. 

$680 here

 
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You are in CA.

In South Florida 650K buys you a nice newer construction (under ten years old) The home I am building is over 850K. It will be our dream home.

In Cali they get’s you a fixer upper under 2500 sq feet.

Here it buys you a brand new 4000 square foot under air (3 car garage too) on a lake lot on about a 1/3 of an acre. Different markets. 
Markets are so different.  Here I bought a place about that size for 85/sqft.  2/3 acre, middle of very nice close in burb, school system top 2% nationally.

But the general view is Alabama is a craphole. So these kind of properties abound.

CA is so weird that way. Not SF, which has so little land those prices make sense.  Places like Palmdale where there is open dessert everywhere - housing prices are absurd.

 
Gilead getting a ton of positive press for dubious results.

Oy
Was all over GMA this morning.  But Fauci and the guy who ran the study keep sprinkling in the disclaimer that these are preliminary results.  Yet, everyone is gong crazy like we have found the cure.  Crazy.

 

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