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Siff - thanks on the insights on EFA. Also appreciate that thoughts on the sector rotation performing better in a Bear market. I likely just missed that but I had not seen you say that before (or I'm just dense).
My guess is someday we'll look back on this period with great fondness but knowledge of why the one horse is beating the others for 3 straight years. In the same way that we look back to the late 1990's and sports.

McGuire and Bonds and their cartoonish figures hammering out home run records. Was it really just a little protein powder and off-season conditioning? Or when Tiger showed up looking like an NFL linebacker saying he'd added lifting weights a couple of times a week to his routine. Then proceeded to obliterate the field in the US Open.

NO doubt in my mind that the one horse $SPY is being juiced. Not complaining about it either. Just commenting about the reality of this market environment. I rather enjoyed the moments of watching Maris' records fall and Tiger looking like a golfer from another planet, but at the same time I knew it was "too good to be true."

 
Anyone interested in Gold?

Thinking about purchasing some GLD shares.
Wasn't IAG a forum favorite for awhile a couple years ago? I know I bought and sold a couple of small positions.

It's currently in the dumpster.
Yup. I have a small amount. At some point I think it will be a big winner. Unfortunately I don't think it will turn around anytime soon. See Siffs note about buying cheaper tomorrow. No reason to start a new posistion right now.
 
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I'm looking gold more long term, thinking years, not months... Less gold is being mined and those mining need higher prices to succeed.

I can see it getting back to $1600 an ounce in a few years, which would = 35-40% premium compared to today.

I'm just Joe Schmoe throwing darts though :kicksrock:

 
One thing I've been surprised is that more folks haven't shown an interest in the Piker $10k -> $1M idea. Overall this has been a successful "live trading" concept, and one I'm moving more towards (along with the SH Sector Rotation Strategy) in 2015.

I've posted those trades faithfully and mostly in real time throughout the year. Results can be seen on this page of my blog.

http://steelhedge.com/current-portfolio/

 
Was thinking of buying COP. .....what are you guys thinking on the oil stocks....still room to drop or is now a decent time to get in?

 
One thing I've been surprised is that more folks haven't shown an interest in the Piker $10k -> $1M idea. Overall this has been a successful "live trading" concept, and one I'm moving more towards (along with the SH Sector Rotation Strategy) in 2015.

I've posted those trades faithfully and mostly in real time throughout the year. Results can be seen on this page of my blog.

http://steelhedge.com/current-portfolio/
I look at that one weekly... Unfortunately I have no ####### clue about futures or I'd be investing aggressively into that strategy. With my minimal knowledge on futures, I feel like I'd get cleaned out quick, even following an outlined strategy.

 
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I'm looking gold more long term, thinking years, not months... Less gold is being mined and those mining need higher prices to succeed.

I can see it getting back to $1600 an ounce in a few years, which would = 35-40% premium compared to today.

I'm just Joe Schmoe throwing darts though :kicksrock:
I'm not looking at gold, but gold miners have taken such incredible wallops lately that they are now on the radar. I still want a massive screaming deal to dip a toe in here, but I'm looking.

I did buy some COP during the correction and will add to that (or initiate a position in CVX) if these guys keep getting beat down.


Was thinking of buying COP. .....what are you guys thinking on the oil stocks....still room to drop or is now a decent time to get in?
:whistle:

I like them at the levels they're at. With COP (and pretty much all the big guys) you're getting a healthy dividend to wait. COP is at 4.25% or so and growing. That is some pretty nice math. No guarantees that they won't dip further, but IMO I see value right now.

 
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Tackling Dummies said:
Keep an eye on ININ. Peers are struggling a little bit and they are rolling out a cornerstone product in Q4 and lining up very large clients.
kind of blowing up today. up 10% today the last time i checked.

 
One thing I've been surprised is that more folks haven't shown an interest in the Piker $10k -> $1M idea. Overall this has been a successful "live trading" concept, and one I'm moving more towards (along with the SH Sector Rotation Strategy) in 2015.

I've posted those trades faithfully and mostly in real time throughout the year. Results can be seen on this page of my blog.

http://steelhedge.com/current-portfolio/
I have been strongly considering giving this a go. As someone with less than two years in trading experience and no previous futures experience I'm trying to learn as much as I can before jumping in.

 
I applied for a Futures account through Etrade... Gonna try to learn.

Once opened, I think I'm going to start with one contract with stop at 10 point loss and sell at 15 point gain. This should limit my exposure to profit of $750 per contract or loss of $500. I'm comfortable enough with this to try and learn.

 
So you guys are now futures trading? I want to see one of you try to execute one of these contracts and end up with a truck load of pork bellies on your door step.

 
So you guys are now futures trading? I want to see one of you try to execute one of these contracts and end up with a truck load of pork bellies on your door step.
:lmao:

So, through eTrade I can't use their platform bc I am on a Mac... You need a Windows OS, so I opened an account through Schwab which runs through optionsxpress.

I'm logged in and this is highly confusing.

It apparently isn't just a buy/sell thing... First piece of information it wants is an expiration date for the contract, I'm already :confused:

 
So you guys are now futures trading? I want to see one of you try to execute one of these contracts and end up with a truck load of pork bellies on your door step.
:lmao:

So, through eTrade I can't use their platform bc I am on a Mac... You need a Windows OS, so I opened an account through Schwab which runs through optionsxpress.

I'm logged in and this is highly confusing.

It apparently isn't just a buy/sell thing... First piece of information it wants is an expiration date for the contract, I'm already :confused:
I got the truck load of pork bellies, but their future is going right down the toilet.

 
Say I buy a futures contract at 2000, can I set up multiple sells so it automatically triggers a sell at either 2015 or 1990, whichever comes first?

 
First of all Emini S&P 500 Futures contracts held at expiration are cash settled. Traders roll these contracts every quarter on the Thursday prior to week of expiration (ie: the second Thursday of the final month of the quarter). There's no reason to ever have a futs contract exercised.

I chart based off the "continuous contract", but current trades would be for the December 2014 contract. Thus on twitter I will say "$ES_F"...the "_F" representing the continuous contract. The Dec Contract look like "ESZ4" with the "Z" representing the month and the "4" representing the year. Since these are quarterly contracts you have March (H); June (M); October (V); December (Z).

My point in the whole thing was of all the things I've posted to me...the futures is the most interesting - to me. Futures trading is very tough and an emotional game. I'd put my knowledge at skilled professional..but I'm often lacking in execution. That's the reason for the strict set of rules and charting and posting in real time for 1 year. Personally I want to move 99% away from stocks...and more to the sector rotation and then trade these Emini futs and the Canadian Forex Dollar.

FantasyCurse. I would strongly recommend AGAINST making a trade in these at this time. Rather why not just ask some questions...see how it goes...get a feel for it. You can make a lot of money in the futs but it is very easy to lose it too. And pilot error can #### your portfolio up.

 
First of all Emini S&P 500 Futures contracts held at expiration are cash settled. Traders roll these contracts every quarter on the Thursday prior to week of expiration (ie: the second Thursday of the final month of the quarter). There's no reason to ever have a futs contract exercised.

I chart based off the "continuous contract", but current trades would be for the December 2014 contract. Thus on twitter I will say "$ES_F"...the "_F" representing the continuous contract. The Dec Contract look like "ESZ4" with the "Z" representing the month and the "4" representing the year. Since these are quarterly contracts you have March (H); June (M); October (V); December (Z).

My point in the whole thing was of all the things I've posted to me...the futures is the most interesting - to me. Futures trading is very tough and an emotional game. I'd put my knowledge at skilled professional..but I'm often lacking in execution. That's the reason for the strict set of rules and charting and posting in real time for 1 year. Personally I want to move 99% away from stocks...and more to the sector rotation and then trade these Emini futs and the Canadian Forex Dollar.

FantasyCurse. I would strongly recommend AGAINST making a trade in these at this time. Rather why not just ask some questions...see how it goes...get a feel for it. You can make a lot of money in the futs but it is very easy to lose it too. And pilot error can #### your portfolio up.
Thanks Siff... Right now my only investment (outside of 401k) is in the sector rotation... The volatility last month has me spooked and I like the safety should things turn bearish. Everything else is cash.

In terms of futures, optionsxpress has the option to do virtual/fake trades... I think it would be best at this time for me to follow along on the futures piker account with the virtual trading. Hopefully in a few months, I understand it better to the point where I can actually participate. The 700% gain this year has me a little more than entertained.

When I am comfortable enough, I think I'm going to start as the piker, deposit $10k into the account and start off with 1 or 2 contracts at a time... This prob won't be until Q1 of 2015 though as I'd prob be donating based off of pilot error if I didn't understand it better :kicksrock:

Any books for futures you would recommend either?

 
First of all Emini S&P 500 Futures contracts held at expiration are cash settled. Traders roll these contracts every quarter on the Thursday prior to week of expiration (ie: the second Thursday of the final month of the quarter). There's no reason to ever have a futs contract exercised.

I chart based off the "continuous contract", but current trades would be for the December 2014 contract. Thus on twitter I will say "$ES_F"...the "_F" representing the continuous contract. The Dec Contract look like "ESZ4" with the "Z" representing the month and the "4" representing the year. Since these are quarterly contracts you have March (H); June (M); October (V); December (Z).

My point in the whole thing was of all the things I've posted to me...the futures is the most interesting - to me. Futures trading is very tough and an emotional game. I'd put my knowledge at skilled professional..but I'm often lacking in execution. That's the reason for the strict set of rules and charting and posting in real time for 1 year. Personally I want to move 99% away from stocks...and more to the sector rotation and then trade these Emini futs and the Canadian Forex Dollar.

FantasyCurse. I would strongly recommend AGAINST making a trade in these at this time. Rather why not just ask some questions...see how it goes...get a feel for it. You can make a lot of money in the futs but it is very easy to lose it too. And pilot error can #### your portfolio up.
Thanks Siff... Right now my only investment (outside of 401k) is in the sector rotation... The volatility last month has me spooked and I like the safety should things turn bearish. Everything else is cash.

In terms of futures, optionsxpress has the option to do virtual/fake trades... I think it would be best at this time for me to follow along on the futures piker account with the virtual trading. Hopefully in a few months, I understand it better to the point where I can actually participate. The 700% gain this year has me a little more than entertained.

When I am comfortable enough, I think I'm going to start as the piker, deposit $10k into the account and start off with 1 or 2 contracts at a time... This prob won't be until Q1 of 2015 though as I'd prob be donating based off of pilot error if I didn't understand it better :kicksrock:

Any books for futures you would recommend either?
No one ever became good at golf or football or baseball or stock trading or anything else for that matter from reading a book. NO ONE! EVER!

You get good by practice through a well established routine.

A simulated account is great...but it's easy to be unemotional when nothing is on the line. Much harder in real life. Example -yesterdays Futs trade at one point was up more than 13 pts...only to become a 10 pt loser over night. There is an impact on the way that impacts my "emotional well being" in the face of today's trade. In real life there is always the devil sitting on your shoulder telling what you should or shouldn't do.

 
First of all Emini S&P 500 Futures contracts held at expiration are cash settled. Traders roll these contracts every quarter on the Thursday prior to week of expiration (ie: the second Thursday of the final month of the quarter). There's no reason to ever have a futs contract exercised.

I chart based off the "continuous contract", but current trades would be for the December 2014 contract. Thus on twitter I will say "$ES_F"...the "_F" representing the continuous contract. The Dec Contract look like "ESZ4" with the "Z" representing the month and the "4" representing the year. Since these are quarterly contracts you have March (H); June (M); October (V); December (Z).

My point in the whole thing was of all the things I've posted to me...the futures is the most interesting - to me. Futures trading is very tough and an emotional game. I'd put my knowledge at skilled professional..but I'm often lacking in execution. That's the reason for the strict set of rules and charting and posting in real time for 1 year. Personally I want to move 99% away from stocks...and more to the sector rotation and then trade these Emini futs and the Canadian Forex Dollar.

FantasyCurse. I would strongly recommend AGAINST making a trade in these at this time. Rather why not just ask some questions...see how it goes...get a feel for it. You can make a lot of money in the futs but it is very easy to lose it too. And pilot error can #### your portfolio up.
Thanks Siff... Right now my only investment (outside of 401k) is in the sector rotation... The volatility last month has me spooked and I like the safety should things turn bearish. Everything else is cash.

In terms of futures, optionsxpress has the option to do virtual/fake trades... I think it would be best at this time for me to follow along on the futures piker account with the virtual trading. Hopefully in a few months, I understand it better to the point where I can actually participate. The 700% gain this year has me a little more than entertained.

When I am comfortable enough, I think I'm going to start as the piker, deposit $10k into the account and start off with 1 or 2 contracts at a time... This prob won't be until Q1 of 2015 though as I'd prob be donating based off of pilot error if I didn't understand it better :kicksrock:

Any books for futures you would recommend either?
No one ever became good at golf or football or baseball or stock trading or anything else for that matter from reading a book. NO ONE! EVER!

You get good by practice through a well established routine.

A simulated account is great...but it's easy to be unemotional when nothing is on the line. Much harder in real life. Example -yesterdays Futs trade at one point was up more than 13 pts...only to become a 10 pt loser over night. There is an impact on the way that impacts my "emotional well being" in the face of today's trade. In real life there is always the devil sitting on your shoulder telling what you should or shouldn't do.
So based off of the system you have in place, being up to 10 contracts, this was up $6,500 and ended losing $5k? 2 points away from a $7,500 winner? Basically a $12,500 swing?

i can understand the emotion there, sorry about that one.

Nonetheless, the piker account is doing phenomenal on the year :thumbup:

 
One thing I've been surprised is that more folks haven't shown an interest in the Piker $10k -> $1M idea. Overall this has been a successful "live trading" concept, and one I'm moving more towards (along with the SH Sector Rotation Strategy) in 2015.

I've posted those trades faithfully and mostly in real time throughout the year. Results can be seen on this page of my blog.

http://steelhedge.com/current-portfolio/
I've followed that one, too. Unfortunately I can't do "live trading" and follow you in real time.

I'd much rather just write you a check for $10K and let you use my money to play with.
Is this an option??? i'm on board :thumbup:

 
Anyone interested in Gold?

Thinking about purchasing some GLD shares.
Wasn't IAG a forum favorite for awhile a couple years ago? I know I bought and sold a couple of small positions.

It's currently in the dumpster.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vgpmx

What about this type of fund? I've lost money on silver bullion this past year but I'm thinking about buying into this fund. Not sure if I should though. I'm thinking it goes lower.

 
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shady inc said:
One thing I've been surprised is that more folks haven't shown an interest in the Piker $10k -> $1M idea. Overall this has been a successful "live trading" concept, and one I'm moving more towards (along with the SH Sector Rotation Strategy) in 2015.

I've posted those trades faithfully and mostly in real time throughout the year. Results can be seen on this page of my blog.

http://steelhedge.com/current-portfolio/
I've followed that one, too. Unfortunately I can't do "live trading" and follow you in real time.

I'd much rather just write you a check for $10K and let you use my money to play with.
Is this an option??? i'm on board :thumbup:
can we open a Siff mutual fund?

 
Look at the 30 day chart for SPDR: XOP. Damn if that doesn't seem like a recipe for some buy on the predictable lows, sell on the predictable highs opportunity.

 
Look at the 30 day chart for SPDR: XOP. Damn if that doesn't seem like a recipe for some buy on the predictable lows, sell on the predictable highs opportunity.
Living on the left side of a chart is a whole lot easier than living on the right side of a chart.

 
One thing I've been surprised is that more folks haven't shown an interest in the Piker $10k -> $1M idea. Overall this has been a successful "live trading" concept, and one I'm moving more towards (along with the SH Sector Rotation Strategy) in 2015.

I've posted those trades faithfully and mostly in real time throughout the year. Results can be seen on this page of my blog.

http://steelhedge.com/current-portfolio/
I've followed that one, too. Unfortunately I can't do "live trading" and follow you in real time.

I'd much rather just write you a check for $10K and let you use my money to play with.
Is this an option??? i'm on board :thumbup:
can we open a Siff mutual fund?
I'm in!

 
Can we get a guessing game going? Calling the tops of the major indexes since they don't appear to be slowing down.

Dow - 18,374

S&P - 2,139

Nasdaq - 5,122

 
Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

 
[SIZE=10.5pt]I’m very selective. But recently I went very heavy in Exact Sciences (EXAS). Was approved for Colon Cancer screening through a stool sample (no more colonoscopy). Their approved Medicare reimbursement is $503 a test and their margin on this is huge. Currently set-up to test over a million tests a year. A colonoscopy besides being horrible costs over $2k.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]This is the test that just about everyone in the country over 60 should be taking. And they just started marketing it. Only good news will be coming out in the next few years as more and more providers administer it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]This isn’t a stock that is going to double in the next week. It is one you buy and it will be worth 3-5x as much in 2 years. Plus they have 2 other test up for approval. I currently know 4 people that work at this place and get a lot of info from them.[/SIZE]

 
Had to look through itriple's history... MIG was his last tip - amazingly enough it is exactly almost to the cent where it was the day he recommended it just under two years ago. It did shoot up 30% in the months after his recommendation though.

 
ADRE! Nice move today
Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled. :rant:

Will look to grab some today.
If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.
would it hurt to jump in on the monthly sector rotation at this point? the price is basically the same now as it was on 10/31 for $IJR...

 
ADRE! Nice move today
Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled. :rant:

Will look to grab some today.
If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.
would it hurt to jump in on the monthly sector rotation at this point? the price is basically the same now as it was on 10/31 for $IJR...
[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]The 60m trend has been straight up for almost a month now. These types of extended short term trend moves are extraordinarily rare- way outside any kind of statistical norm or expectation. To me it "feels" kind of toppy. So that must mean it will [/SIZE]continue[SIZE=14.3999996185303px] to go up...right?[/SIZE]

The market is like the "Battle of Wits" in the Princess Bride.

I'd wait...if you are going to do this...just do it as presented..

 
siff- been perusing the steelhedge website. some good stuff on there. did the weekly sector rotation come to an end, or was it just difficult to keep updating the website?

also on the weekly sector rotation, i noticed you "use the Fidelity “no commission” ETFs in an effort to reduce costs for the strategy." But when i look at Fidelity's website, I see "A short-term trading fee of $7.95 will be charged for any sales that occur within 30 days of the original purchase of the ETF". Did you not run into this fee when you were using Fidelity?

 
siff- been perusing the steelhedge website. some good stuff on there. did the weekly sector rotation come to an end, or was it just difficult to keep updating the website?

also on the weekly sector rotation, i noticed you "use the Fidelity “no commission” ETFs in an effort to reduce costs for the strategy." But when i look at Fidelity's website, I see "A short-term trading fee of $7.95 will be charged for any sales that occur within 30 days of the original purchase of the ETF". Did you not run into this fee when you were using Fidelity?
I really need to do some work on the website. I think it has been a year since a post. I do update the spreadsheets in real time. And I am actually working on an article, and posted those charts to twitter last week. For the Weekly Sector Rotation I stopped because I didn't think there was an interest. Then this myriad of health issues I've been dealing with. I'd be willing to look more in depth there. It's not as simple as the Monthly Rotation because we are working with very short term time frames, and I need to adjust the formulas for a weekly strategy. As for the "Fidelity no commission ETF"- you are correct in that there is a fee for ST positions. It's is still about 1/2 the cost for a round trip. I don't pay a lot of attention to commission fees in general, and didn't mean to mis-lead anyone.

 
siff- been perusing the steelhedge website. some good stuff on there. did the weekly sector rotation come to an end, or was it just difficult to keep updating the website?

also on the weekly sector rotation, i noticed you "use the Fidelity “no commission” ETFs in an effort to reduce costs for the strategy." But when i look at Fidelity's website, I see "A short-term trading fee of $7.95 will be charged for any sales that occur within 30 days of the original purchase of the ETF". Did you not run into this fee when you were using Fidelity?
I really need to do some work on the website. I think it has been a year since a post. I do update the spreadsheets in real time. And I am actually working on an article, and posted those charts to twitter last week. For the Weekly Sector Rotation I stopped because I didn't think there was an interest. Then this myriad of health issues I've been dealing with. I'd be willing to look more in depth there. It's not as simple as the Monthly Rotation because we are working with very short term time frames, and I need to adjust the formulas for a weekly strategy. As for the "Fidelity no commission ETF"- you are correct in that there is a fee for ST positions. It's is still about 1/2 the cost for a round trip. I don't pay a lot of attention to commission fees in general, and didn't mean to mis-lead anyone.
Not misleading, was just curious if i was missing something. The weekly rotation is an interesting concept, and it looks like about a 15% return through august if my math is right. good stuff!

 
Some buzz going around that Amaya Gaming is bidding to buy Bwin.....Bwin shares hopping today and Amaya announces earnings on Friday. Things are afoot at the Circle K.

 
siff- been perusing the steelhedge website. some good stuff on there. did the weekly sector rotation come to an end, or was it just difficult to keep updating the website?

also on the weekly sector rotation, i noticed you "use the Fidelity “no commission” ETFs in an effort to reduce costs for the strategy." But when i look at Fidelity's website, I see "A short-term trading fee of $7.95 will be charged for any sales that occur within 30 days of the original purchase of the ETF". Did you not run into this fee when you were using Fidelity?
I updated the Weekly Sector from Aug-Present. This is NOT a portfolio I have traded live rather tracked for the year. Not counted are commissions. Not counted are capital gain taxes. The goal was for 1% gain per week. It is not meeting that goal. I'm going to re-examine the entire concept. Thanks for bringing it back to my attention.

 
Weekly is up pre-tax 25% on the year... I'd be very happy to follow along that one with real funds...

I've been in sector rotation (monthly) since May. I just tracked gains and I'm up about 7.7% in 6.5 months (after tax that prob equals roughly 5%). I would happily take 9-10% after tax annually without thinking twice.

If it wasn't for the collapse in September of ADRE, sector rotation would be dominating the S&P this year.

 
Interesting rule of the weekly is differing to the 2nd best ETF should a gain of 10% or more occur in a week. Makes a lot of sense, you ever thought about adding something along those lines to monthly Siff?

 

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