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Stock Thread (47 Viewers)

Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.
GM, did Amaya buy Pokerstars? I remember reading about it a while back, but thought it was just talks at that time. You like them as a long term or just waiting for it to pop if USA allows online poker?
Yup, acquired them last summer. Forbes has a great article about it (google Forbes + David Baazov). It's a long term hold for me. With Pokerstars comes 89 Million registred users and Baazov is a genius with verticals. Q4 earnings should be stout and ultimately this could be a $50 stock soon.

 
Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.
GM, did Amaya buy Pokerstars? I remember reading about it a while back, but thought it was just talks at that time. You like them as a long term or just waiting for it to pop if USA allows online poker?
Yup, acquired them last summer. Forbes has a great article about it (google Forbes + David Baazov). It's a long term hold for me. With Pokerstars comes 89 Million registred users and Baazov is a genius with verticals. Q4 earnings should be stout and ultimately this could be a $50 stock soon.
Nice job, I thought about getting some several months back but couldn't pull the trigger. Did you mention earlier you got in at 2-3? Damn!!

 
Yeah, I was touting this thing early on. Won the stock contest with it (second win :bowtie: ) and a few fellas here jumped on. It's a Canadian stock, so tough to locate for some guys. They will list on the NYSE this year.

 
I'm going to be making a regular blog post that will essentially be charts of many different stock sectors. There's not any commentary but perhaps they will be useful and the more you study them the more useful they will be. My hope is to post this 1x end of the week - every week and a more lengthy post 1x per month at the end of the month.

Feedback is always helpful.

http://steelhedge.com/2015/02/06/february-6-2015-weekly-update/
Continuation. This weeks update can be found here:

http://steelhedge.com/2015/02/14/february-13-2015-weekly-update/

 
I bought some KING yesterday at $16.05/shr. They make the Candy Crush games. They had a great quarter and shot up 13% or so on Friday but then retreated about 4% yesterday. I think people still love their games and at least for the next 6 months or so, the company should continue to do well.

 
GTAT - which went belly up cause of some Apple doing or something.
Don't feel too bad. Ran into a thread on another forum after this went belly up and people had their life savings in this thing. I was astounded (and felt pretty bad for some of them).

But yeesh - never do that. I feel pretty exposed with the outsized position I have in CVX right now, and there is a 0.0% chance of that going belly up.

 
I also went shopping this morning to add some stocks I've had an eye on for awhile, this is about 40% of my cash so I have back up if there's a correction and there are still some stocks/funds in the energy sector I want to purchase.

I mostly wanted stocks that have been beaten down a bit, that pay a decent dividend. These are all long term holds for me with the possible exception of YHOO. I think their recent partnership with Mozilla as the default search engine is going to really help things. Then there is their investment in Alibaba.

50 PG @ $85.92 (current yield 3.00% P/E 25.1)

100 FAST @ $43.19 (current yield 2.64% P/E 25.6)

40 IBM @ $162.03 (current yield 2.74% P/E 10.2)

40 GILD @ $103.33 (P/E 13.9)

50 TGT @$76.92 (current yield 2.73% P/E 32.1)

50 LLY @ $70.44 (current yield 2.79% P/E 32.2)

50 GPC @ $95.25 (current yield 2.37%, P/E 21.5)

100 YHOO @$43.58 (P/E 5.7)

Then added another 300 MRIC @ $0.78 for a total of 835 @ $1.19 (up over 3.5% to $ 0.82 this afternoon, sheesh, this is a high risk/reward for me)

 
I also went shopping this morning to add some stocks I've had an eye on for awhile, this is about 40% of my cash so I have back up if there's a correction and there are still some stocks/funds in the energy sector I want to purchase.

I mostly wanted stocks that have been beaten down a bit, that pay a decent dividend. These are all long term holds for me with the possible exception of YHOO. I think their recent partnership with Mozilla as the default search engine is going to really help things. Then there is their investment in Alibaba.

50 PG @ $85.92 (current yield 3.00% P/E 25.1)

100 FAST @ $43.19 (current yield 2.64% P/E 25.6)

40 IBM @ $162.03 (current yield 2.74% P/E 10.2)

40 GILD @ $103.33 (P/E 13.9)

50 TGT @$76.92 (current yield 2.73% P/E 32.1)

50 LLY @ $70.44 (current yield 2.79% P/E 32.2)

50 GPC @ $95.25 (current yield 2.37%, P/E 21.5)

100 YHOO @$43.58 (P/E 5.7)

Then added another 300 MRIC @ $0.78 for a total of 835 @ $1.19 (up over 3.5% to $ 0.82 this afternoon, sheesh, this is a high risk/reward for me)
Been a lot of talk at work (I work at a Fortune 50 in accounting), and I'm seeing articles start to pop up about the headwinds being caused by currency going into 2015 for large US-based multi-nationals. With the US dollar strengthening against foreign currencies, this is :clyde: the GAAP P&L's for top line sales, where on a constant currency basis, large cap US firms might actually be beating the Street's estimates. Meanwhile, the Street is punishing (somewhat, not severely) companies who have large-scale OUS operations for missing 2014 NTS estimates or revising NTS/EPS for 2015 downward due to the current currency flux.

So, there might be a window here while the Fed is acting in 2015/2016 to edge out some cheaper basis prices for long-term investors in terms of large-cap US-based multi-nationals firms and ETF's/mutual funds composed of these companies. I'm not making any big bets on this, but in my retirement accounts anything within what I consider my equity allocation, if I have a split within equity between US and International funds, I am shifting more of the weight towards the US based funds and away from the international funds within my total equity allocation. I'm willing to see if I can buy some dip in strong US companies based upon the above.

 
IEF crossed its 50 DMA today, a little worried.
Siff, do you ever exit early? When a trend turns quickly and starts crossing moving averages, or is it always month end regardless?

TIA
No. I stick with it for the month. It's been frustrating for sure. One thing is we're swinging from one extreme to another and the top sector gets pick at an extremely overbought point then while it's owned reverts back to the mean - which means a series of losing trades for us. I'm spending a lot of time to research what to do when the top sectors are at "extreme" levels. I might make a logical "adjustment" at times when that occurs that include selecting the #2 Sector to just sitting in cash while the extremes get sorted out. I've got a lot personally at stake with this strategy. I need it to not only work at times when the market is "normal" but also during the times it is more erratic and prone to these "whipsaw" moves.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
fantasycurse42 said:
In on UGA at $36

Also playing FUEL for earnings. Programmatic took on huge scatter budgets in Q4, hopefully they were a benefactor.
5% in a day... IDK if I should be greedy or just take the $$$.

This will be moving 15% in either direction after close.
#### it, letting it ride.
I'm out, I hate this company... I hope they go bankrupt and their executive team goes to jail to be gang raped for decades. This is the most pathetic company in the world!

 
Is this quote for real?

But this time could be different. A report in German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung quotes an unnamed central banker from the ECB who believes that the Grexit may now be inevitable. “One gets the impression that the Greeks want to get out [of the euro] and are just looking for an escape goat,” at this point, the unnamed central banker told the paper.
:mellow:
I was just coming in to post pretty much the exact same thing.

 
IEF crossed its 50 DMA today, a little worried.
Siff, do you ever exit early? When a trend turns quickly and starts crossing moving averages, or is it always month end regardless?

TIA
No. I stick with it for the month. It's been frustrating for sure. One thing is we're swinging from one extreme to another and the top sector gets pick at an extremely overbought point then while it's owned reverts back to the mean - which means a series of losing trades for us. I'm spending a lot of time to research what to do when the top sectors are at "extreme" levels. I might make a logical "adjustment" at times when that occurs that include selecting the #2 Sector to just sitting in cash while the extremes get sorted out. I've got a lot personally at stake with this strategy. I need it to not only work at times when the market is "normal" but also during the times it is more erratic and prone to these "whipsaw" moves.
I am in for the long haul....this should be an interesting year. Any per thoughts on next month's sector? I know we have a lot of time left just curious...
 
IEF crossed its 50 DMA today, a little worried.
Siff, do you ever exit early? When a trend turns quickly and starts crossing moving averages, or is it always month end regardless?

TIA
No. I stick with it for the month. It's been frustrating for sure. One thing is we're swinging from one extreme to another and the top sector gets pick at an extremely overbought point then while it's owned reverts back to the mean - which means a series of losing trades for us. I'm spending a lot of time to research what to do when the top sectors are at "extreme" levels. I might make a logical "adjustment" at times when that occurs that include selecting the #2 Sector to just sitting in cash while the extremes get sorted out. I've got a lot personally at stake with this strategy. I need it to not only work at times when the market is "normal" but also during the times it is more erratic and prone to these "whipsaw" moves.
Siff - If I may - I think that part of your issue comes from the somewhat arbitrary as month end as the point where you make the change. Because of that, when it comes time to see analysis, my understanding of what you are doing, is that you take whoever is showing the most momentum at the moment regardless of where that momentum might have started. Since you never try and "time" things, your methodology only looks at what is happening at the moment and makes no "prediction" of when that trend may end. As it happens, the month ends over the last few have been times where most of the momentum plays you've made just happened to be at the end of their run-ups.

I think the only way to solve for that is to either say that those are just the breaks of choosing any arbitrary decision point and you take the good with the bad, or you try and build in a mechanism to do what you don't like doing - time the market - by evaluating the likelihood that a run-up is too close to an end to justify jumping on.

 
Can someone help with chart analysis? Thinking of buying some ELTP. It will be a long term play for me, but I have a feeling it still has some further downside.

 
Anyone own SCTY or FEYE? Thoughts if you do
I own FEYE, been a fairly long term for me. I got in at $37.50 and it dropped from there. Earnings report has given the stock a boost. It's still a bit risky I think. I am going to hold this stock because the industry of cyber security is going to be more important as time goes by. This company is right in the middle of it.

 
I bought 65 more DDD at $30.89 for a total of 269 at $45.48.

Everybody has been saying to sell for months now. Just figured I would make a little contrarian bet.

 
Has anyone else recently looked at the 25 year history chart of the S&P500 and then started to get nervous?

 
Can someone help with chart analysis? Thinking of buying some ELTP. It will be a long term play for me, but I have a feeling it still has some further downside.
Looks like a pretty solid downward trend. I'd short it but it's only @ .24. Not a lot of room left to drop.

 
Has anyone else recently looked at the 25 year history chart of the S&P500 and then started to get nervous?
i prefer the 40 year chart because that's what google finance has to offer.

Pretty nutty when you look at how level it looks from 75 to 95 and then things start looking crazy.

 
Silver (16.22) inching down closer to its 6 month low of 15.42.

Buying opportunity next week?
What's your catalyst for higher prices or is this just a trading range opportunity? I gave up on silver entirely and haven't even looked at it in ages. Guessing its been consolidating for a couple years now between 16-20?

 
Silver (16.22) inching down closer to its 6 month low of 15.42.

Buying opportunity next week?
What's your catalyst for higher prices or is this just a trading range opportunity? I gave up on silver entirely and haven't even looked at it in ages. Guessing its been consolidating for a couple years now between 16-20?
Mostly trading but in my totally amateur mind, there's no way this low inflation is sustainable. The oil price drop has been beneficial but locally the real estate market has been improving and I'm anecdotally seeing other increased spending going on. If an international incident doesn't cause an economic crisis and flight to precious metals, then you should see spending uptick in second quarter especially once the Northeast digs themselves out of feet of snow.

 
If you believe the statements made this morning, wages need to catch up to the increased productivity and unemployment and underemployment are still lagging and that's holding back spending and consumer discretionary.

If the weather continues far into the Spring, it will actually have a negative effect where Spring buying (home and garden) gets delayed or bypassed entirely like what happened in 2013.

 
I bought 65 more DDD at $30.89 for a total of 269 at $45.48.

Everybody has been saying to sell for months now. Just figured I would make a little contrarian bet.
OOF I really like the increase in sales though.

Just put another buy in for 75 at $26.00.

Now we play the waiting game even though I prefer Hungry Hungry Hippos.

 
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Has anyone else recently looked at the 25 year history chart of the S&P500 and then started to get nervous?
i prefer the 40 year chart because that's what google finance has to offer.

Pretty nutty when you look at how level it looks from 75 to 95 and then things start looking crazy.
No. Definitely not nervous. And the reason 75-95 looks sedate is just a matter of scale.

If you look at this market historically it is pretty much on its long term trendline - i.e. not over or under valued. If you look at the charts the way you should look at these (log scale) you'll see:

40 Year GSPC

25 year GSPC

In this program (something I generated to help me analyze stocks) the top middle window is log scale, bottom middle is linear scale, and the middle middle panel shows statistically how far off the current price is off of the long term trend line. On the 40 year S&P we are slightly under and the 25 we're slightly over the long term trend lines. For the 40 that tracks us back to start during the bear market in the 70s, so it being under kind of makes sense there.

Also, you can see from these lines that in 2000 the market was at over +3 standard deviations above the long term trend. Yeah, not good. And early 2009 at -3 standard deviations was a spectacular time to get in. Right now we're riding the secular bull market and seem to be right at about typical market returns. The biggest indicator of a recession oncoming is an inverted yield curve (see here). Right now that isn't in sight. I'm not particularly worried, but with the markets anything can happen. I see no reason to panic and go to cash, though.

 
I bought 65 more DDD at $30.89 for a total of 269 at $45.48.

Everybody has been saying to sell for months now. Just figured I would make a little contrarian bet.
OOF I really like the increase in sales though.

Just put another buy in for 75 at $26.00.

Now we play the waiting game even though I prefer Hungry Hungry Hippos.
Jumping today
Bob, you see Siff's tweet this morning about DDD?

 

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