Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (63 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Can't you just be happy for GM?Good thing stuff in China is going worse than thought. Nothing like government supported markets and rallies fueled on negative data. Just as long as we can cut rates and pump printed money into systems everything will be okay.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I just feel like the negative sentiment and gloomy outlook was as much of a bubble as the market itself. Poop hits the fan all the time in every corner of the world and when it does and it triggers a sell-off, the glass-half-empty crowd rises up and says "SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!".
Of course things go wrong and yes, absolutely markets sell off. The trick to making money in the stock market isn't to overreact with every wild swing and trade your portfolio like it's a kite, trying to capture the direction like wind. The trick is to finding good companies that you believe in and staying with them until your personal belief in the company is altered in a meaningful manner. Use market sell-offs to buy shares at a discount, which is not to say I'm advocating averaging down. If you are going to predict mass failure in the global markets, flock to cash or gold and stay there.
I wake up in the morning and believe the world will continue to spin and that global commerce will hum along, regardless of market direction. On the rare nights I can go out to a restaurant, I'm typically met with a crowded house. The highways are jam packed with cars no matter when I leave my house for work or return home. Innovation is driving technology with products being gobbled up everywhere. You want an exercise? Look at the charts of Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix etc and focus in on the years 2008-2009, which in your lifetime represented the only time the financial world was at a precipice, positioned precariously to topple and fail. Overlay Total Revenue into the charts and zone in. What do you see? You see Total Revenue moving higher and higher in all these financial behemoths, completely oblivious and ambivalent to the financial world crumbling around them.
My question to you is this: Let's say there is a giant wipeout on a global level. What are you going to do about it? Buy gold, guns, canned goods and just wait for your life to end? How bad do you think it gets? Do you think it's human nature to just give up? We have survived far worse than a massive market correction, of that I assure you. In the end, we are all dead so personally speaking, I'm going to make the most of it and part of that involves not believing in an imminent financial armageddon. There's nothing I can do to stop it if it does happen. What I can do is position myself to weather the storm as best I can...don't go into massive debt, have reasonable mortgage, don't live beyond my means, own companies in my portfolio that I believe in and not have too many kids. Oh, wait.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
My point wasn't about doom, I agree the world will keep spinning and markets will keep moving until you and I are long gone.
My point was more to the fact that bad news is good news and good news is bad news. This cycle has been happening for a while. China puts out worse than expected numbers today which then leads to a huge rally, everyone is excited for the stimulus to come. We just finished a $9 Trillion dollar QE program, Europe is doing the same thing we just did, Japan has been doing similar, China is going to jump on board I assume. The system is wildly unhealthy. The markets are terrified of a simple tiny FFR hike, yet everything is wonderful. I'm just of the opinion when it comes down, it will come down hard. I'm sure the government will step in and keep the wheel spinning, but normal as known for the past century is certainly changing.
Why are we rallying today? BC the second biggest economy in the world is crumbling and everyone is lining up for the free government money? Eventually this will end badly. Then there will be more government money, how does the cycle end?
My point was more to the fact that bad news is good news and good news is bad news. This cycle has been happening for a while. China puts out worse than expected numbers today which then leads to a huge rally, everyone is excited for the stimulus to come. We just finished a $9 Trillion dollar QE program, Europe is doing the same thing we just did, Japan has been doing similar, China is going to jump on board I assume. The system is wildly unhealthy. The markets are terrified of a simple tiny FFR hike, yet everything is wonderful. I'm just of the opinion when it comes down, it will come down hard. I'm sure the government will step in and keep the wheel spinning, but normal as known for the past century is certainly changing.
Why are we rallying today? BC the second biggest economy in the world is crumbling and everyone is lining up for the free government money? Eventually this will end badly. Then there will be more government money, how does the cycle end?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Well, the massive sell off and triple death cross didn't happen today. Let's see how how the rest of September/October play out....
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think you suffer from a belief that markets trade on news. They don't.
lod01
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I agree with this...
But anyone who thinks the current state of this market is normal or healthy isn't paying attention... 2 percent swings on a semi-daily basis is not the norm and signals a deeper problem.
KCitons
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
Just bought a grip of more TVIX at $13.45
Chalk one up for the hooligans.Whenever I'm making money I KNOW the markets are totally efficient and free. Whenever I'm losing money I KNOW the markets are controlled by banksters, insiders, government interventionist and market manipulators. It's never me.DrJ said:
John Bender
Footballguy
I should have shaved off someone of that UCO last week.
culdeus
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
Dammit...
auto correct
auto correct
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Dumped my small 'fun' position in Keurig. Ended with nearly 10% bump on the cash.
Bonfire
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Choke on **** Goldman
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Just like that, rigs count down.
ETA
I seriously don't understand how Goldman comes out with a $20 a barrel oil prediction when all I read is how OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike are suffering because of oil prices being as low as they are and willing to cut production if it means the price can go higher. Russia is the only country that is publicly saying they are not going to cut production. Then toss on top of that many of the U.S. producers are highly leveraged and going to be running out of financing if they haven't already.
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
$20 is a little drastic, but not impossible... Iran coming back on, Fracking becoming more efficient, China in trouble, refinery maintenance season, stronger dollar, summer over.
I stopped gambling and am shipping the funds I was managing to a professional, but if I was still betting, my bet is still bearish on oil.
I stopped gambling and am shipping the funds I was managing to a professional, but if I was still betting, my bet is still bearish on oil.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Frackers are going out of business and can't financing at these prices to keep going. Imports in China were up 5+% last month versus a year ago. Iran deal just got voted down by the House not that it probably matters. Iranian oil isn't expected to hit the world markets until the end of 2016 at the earliest. Gasoline inventories were half of what they were expected to be this week. Oh yeah, like I said in my previous post, the current price is killing countries like Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil and yes, even Saudi Arabia.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Also, Goldman call "is a possibilty".
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Goldman is short oil and trying to drive it down to reap and then switch long. When they switch sides you'll know.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
YepSand said:
Johnnymac
Footballguy
Yes I do. It's been whatever it is now for how long? I think they do a small increase.
Sand
Footballguy
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
How do you think that will affect the real estate markets in the short term? I realize this is the stock thread, but I would be interested to know your opinion.
Sand
Footballguy
Tough to say - those gyrations are always hard to predict. If I were to guess I would suspect a pretty muted response, though. Some or most of that first raise has to be baked into the markets by now. But the markets (including mortgage rates) are pretty irrational in spots.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
Finally bailed on my uco at 25.01. I do not want to know what that loss was.
John Bender
Footballguy
Man - I'm thinking of getting out now for the small game and feel so lucky.
TVIX - is as volatile as they come, I knew this, but I took a killing over the past week.
Down under 10 dollars again which is where I bought when it made me a quick thousand about a month ago.
Anyone have any thoughts here?
I'm not selling what I bought last week but thinking of buying more as we wade through the rest of September and October and hoping for another sharp dip in the markets to turn another quick profit?
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
I've been thinking about delving into TVIX as well, as how can the next couple of days not be volatile? That being said, it's pure gambling...
lod01
Footballguy
I can't imagine there won't be volatility next week once the rate hike is done and everyone focuses on the upcoming govt' shutdown (currently 60% chance). BTW, week 37 (this week), is historically a great week for the market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/history-shows-that-this-week-is-best-for-stock-market-investors-2015-09-14
Good thing we have republicans controlling both houses so they can get things done.
WTF do these idiots do all day?
John Bender
Footballguy
Buying another 300 shares of TVIX @ 9.90 and hoping for a rocky traditional Sept/October
One I'll have to watch literally every single minute though to get out when the time is right.
One I'll have to watch literally every single minute though to get out when the time is right.
John Bender
Footballguy
What a day for oil.
TVIX is now down below 9 bucks.
I gotta think there's some value there.
TVIX is now down below 9 bucks.
I gotta think there's some value there.
lod01
Footballguy
What a day for oil.
TVIX is now down below 9 bucks.
I gotta think there's some value there.
Standing at the TVIX table. May place a bet tomorrow.
rustycolts
Footballguy
This thread has been a big help to me in the past.When I was getting ready to retire I received some very helpful advice and I really appreciated it.Being retired I have not invested in individual stocks mostly mutual funds.My financial adviser has suggested I put money into Unit Trusts my problem is I am still a novice and to be honest I have never heard of these.Are they safe?I am doing a little research on the web and to be honest really don't know what I'm reading.Edward Jones rep seems to be high on them,but whats good for him maybe not so good for me.Any info in plain English would be helpful.Thanks
Last edited by a moderator:
stubby
Footballguy
Typically the total in fees over a two year period is around 3.95% if purchased in a regular brokerage account. USUALLY they are a better deal for him than for you.
IF you choose to invest in UITs, please make sure the ones he is using/suggesting employ zero leverage. Also stay clear of those made up primarily of closed-end funds.
John Bender
Footballguy
I think as long as you have the bandwidth to watch it hourly/if not by the minute...while it may be volatile, you can protect yourself by being attentive during trading hours.What a day for oil.
TVIX is now down below 9 bucks.
I gotta think there's some value there.
I would be buying heavy TVIX right now if I had any cash left.
In for 600 @ 12.98
In for 300 @ 9.90
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'd be careful on TVIX. I'll tell you one thing I remember vividly. When the Fed was spending $85B with their QE plan, I remember the day they announced they were cutting it to $75B. The market rallied hard that day.
I'd put the odds pretty high that by EOD tomm the DJIA is over 17k.
Rate hike pushed back, rally.
Rate hike happens, rally.
Like anything, I could be wrong, but I'd bet the market rallies after the Fed releases their notes and rallies hard during Janet's press conference as she feeds the market with dovish comments.
I'd put the odds pretty high that by EOD tomm the DJIA is over 17k.
Rate hike pushed back, rally.
Rate hike happens, rally.
Like anything, I could be wrong, but I'd bet the market rallies after the Fed releases their notes and rallies hard during Janet's press conference as she feeds the market with dovish comments.
John Bender
Footballguy
Make no mistake - I'm being very careful with it.
I watch it every 5 minutes
while I'm in.I made a cool 2k on it in 3 days last month by just keeping an eye on it.
If you have the time to watch the volatility, there's no issue with loading up on it when it's at it's 52 week low
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Like all leveraged ETFs it decays. Say the VIX is 15 today and there is minimal volatility for a period and it drops to 10, that's 33% (66% for TVIX). Assume during this period TVIX was at $10 and has now dropped to $3.4. Now volatility picks back up and the VIX goes back to 15, TVIX would only go back to around $5.65ish. Your investment is down 44% even though the VIX is unchanged.Make no mistake - I'm being very careful with it.I watch it every 5 minutes
I made a cool 2k on it in 3 days last month by just keeping an eye on it.
If you have the time to watch the volatility, there's no issue with loading up on it when it's at it's 52 week low
There are other factors but the purpose of this statement is to warn you of the severe risk here.
