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Have a big profit today thanks to ol reliable... 

DWTI was in and out from 102-108, took the profits.

Shorted 4 front month futures at $42.5, currently at $41.3. 

Just a hypothesis, but I think oil could tank and tank hard. OPEC jawboning again about an informal meeting in September, think the market can crack and make them actually have to do something. Shale production appears to be bottoming, we've only declined 23kbpd in the last 3 weeks, certainly looks like it isn't declining much more, plus the EIA and OPEC revised US production estimates up, which didn't surprise me at all. 

There is no question we have too much oil, we're flushed with it and with seasonal weakness and a summer that did nothing to knock down the massive oversupply, it looks like it'll get worse before better. A lot of talking heads discussing higher prices yada yada yada, but we still have a much higher supply than demand. 

Normally I'm pretty good about taking my profits with oil, but I'm actually debating picking up a few more short contracts. Outside of a war in the ME, it's gonna take OPEC to help clear this glut out, and honestly, I'm convinced SA doesn't give a #### - volatility is good for them, people go to the most stable (SA) in times of uncertainty. Market share now (as they've made apparent for years), price worries later... Still playing out. 

 
Held my plan for all of 10 minutes :lol:

Had a good profit to protect, sold at $41.6

Nigeria attack and HSBC adding to the balance nonsense in the news. Still don't think we're close to balanced and unless prices stay lower it isn't happening. I'll wait for a new entrance, maybe after some of the shorts clear out. 

 
Anyone know much about GLPI (Gaming & Leisure Properties)?

They bought some Pinnacle casinos apparently and although this brought on some debt, they expect the increased revenue to more than make up for it. Very nice dividend too.

 
1 of their 20 or so properties is the East St Louis property that's leased to the Casino Queen.  Can't see any way that could go wrong.

 
Good thing I changed course :lol:

Flood of news to sends shorts covering today. Aggressively got long, WTI running into resistance now, if it overtakes $43.5, the floodgates really open. 

 
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I'm gonna cover myself in oil tonight and have my wife lick it all off :excited:

Today is the kinda day I need to bring Tiffany diamonds home.

Just wow, buy the rumor sell the news :thumbup:

 
siffoin said:
Hello Folks.

While this is not a post about stocks...this is the thread I've posted the most in the FFA...and so I'm reaching out to you as "my people."

One of the reasons I don't post so much here anymore is that about a year ago I started a small ice cream company in Boise.  There are 2 unique things about the ice cream I make.  #1 it's vegan (I know what your are thinking - thin and textually icy, but honestly mine taste like premium ice cream).  #2 I set up the company to work with people in the Boise community who have barriers to employment and hire people who are often on 100% government support to make and package the ice cream.  (Note: for the first year 100% of my products were made and packaged in a partnership with a single non-profit who trains people with barriers to employment.  About 3 weeks ago I moved to my own kitchen and am bridging new partnerships with 2 new non-profits who assist people in Boise with employment barriers.)

Making vegan ice cream in Boise, Idaho is no simple task either...as we are a meat, POTATOES and dairy kind of folk.  But I've made pretty steady progress over the past year.  Right now I make about as much as I can and we sell out all we produce every week.  But we are a small potatoes (pun intended) company, and it would be great to see this thing grow and succeed.

Like many towns, there is a "Best of Boise."  It would really help my company continue to move forward if we were nominated as the Best Local Frozen Treat.  Today is the last day to accept nominations.  If you have the time, I'd appreciate it if you could go to the following link and nominate my company- if you share it with friends even more appreciated.

Under "Best Local Frozen Treats" nominate "Mobley's Craft Gelato""

Best of Boise for Mobley's Craft Gelato
 
 
To better make it worth your while...if I were to get nominated, I will send a random person here 4 pints. Thanks so much!
 
Siffoin
Click to expand...
LOOK AT YOU!  LOOK AT ME!  LOOK AT US!

Thanks to all of you who voted for my company under the Best of Boise.  I got word yesterday, that my company did indeed make it as one of the top 5 finalist for the Best Frozen Treat in Boise, and again I sincerely appreciate all of you who took the time to vote on my behalf.

As I mentioned I'd send out pints to one of you if I were to move on.  However, I'm not sure who all voted.  So if you did, would you please send me a private message.  I'll then do a random generator to figure out the winner.

Now that I'm in...I want to win this thing!  So if you would take a few minutes and go to the link below and vote for Mobley's Craft Gelato, I'd sincerely appreciate it.  You'll find it under "Food and Dining - Frozen Treats".  If you didn't vote the first time, you can vote for me this time.

Best of Boise - Mobley's Craft Gelato

Easy Boise Zip code is:  83702

 
siffoin said:
LOOK AT YOU!  LOOK AT ME!  LOOK AT US!

Thanks to all of you who voted for my company under the Best of Boise.  I got word yesterday, that my company did indeed make it as one of the top 5 finalist for the Best Frozen Treat in Boise, and again I sincerely appreciate all of you who took the time to vote on my behalf.

As I mentioned I'd send out pints to one of you if I were to move on.  However, I'm not sure who all voted.  So if you did, would you please send me a private message.  I'll then do a random generator to figure out the winner.

Now that I'm in...I want to win this thing!  So if you would take a few minutes and go to the link below and vote for Mobley's Craft Gelato, I'd sincerely appreciate it.  You'll find it under "Food and Dining - Frozen Treats".  If you didn't vote the first time, you can vote for me this time.

Best of Boise - Mobley's Craft Gelato

Easy Boise Zip code is:  83702
Click to expand...


Very cool GB.  :thumbup:

I voted but give my pint to somebody that looks like they can't afford it and could use something nice being done for them.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
I bought 100 shares of TWTR at $15.07 with plans to buy some more as it moved lower which it did but I was on vacation at the time and not paying attention.  I'm just holding tight now.  It has been driven up because everyone believes they are a takeover target.
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Out at $19.72 for a profit of $465.00 :confetti:

 
Awesome Siff, congrats man!

Had a nice day today :)

Don't even want to get into details in case the wife is snooping around, I'll just say I bought a bunch of front month contracts early in the morning and sold them this afternoon. She is with my mother right now, so the shopping can get out of hand quickly.

 
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A lesson I've learned through numerous losses is buy the rumor, sell the news. Today I pounced on that. 

good trading day. My wife saw the happiness on my face when I got home. Mother was over and they had dinner before I got there bc I was working late.

After my mom left, wife and kids went to lay down. I went downstairs to Chipotle. The guy rings me up and forgets to charge me for guac- I think to myself "Wow, my lucky day!" :lol:

After basically making a A nice day, I think to myself about a lucky day by not being charged for guac, I'm such an idiot!

 
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You guys really need to be following oil, making a serious bullish reversal. 

The stars really aligned on all oil headlines today. even in Asia right now, they rarely move the oil market and it's up 1.5% there.

I decided to press my winners and bought a bunch of contracts after hours for $43.35... Europe oil traders come online at 2am EDT, I can't sleep. Need to see if they continue this insane bullish momentum or they start selling.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
You guys really need to be following oil, making a serious bullish reversal. 

The stars really aligned on all oil headlines today. even in Asia right now, they rarely move the oil market and it's up 1.5% there.

I decided to press my winners and bought a bunch of contracts after hours for $43.35... Europe oil traders come online at 2am EDT, I can't sleep. Need to see if they continue this insane bullish momentum or they start selling.
Click to expand...
Another solid post nailing the top :kicksrock:

was at 44.15 when posted, now 43.85, the mush!

 
Sand said:
Bought a bunch of ARMGP today.  7% yield preferred - nice high income and rated as investment grade - a real rarity these days.  I fully expect some price appreciation here as these kind of income issues have been going nuts lately.  Gotta get in very early.  This one is a bit of a strange duck in that it issues a K-1 at tax time.  I have some other MLPs, so this doesn't bother me much.

Not seeing a lot in stock space that looks enticing.  Most of the types of stocks I like a pretty expensive right now.  This is a reasonable filler for now.
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:goodposting:

 
Sold 1000 shares of my MZOR (half) real close to the high, 24.67. Want to buy more shares lower next week. 

Possibly the next ISRG. Writing is on the wall. 

Still holding NEO and XON long as well. 

 
What do you guys think of REITs? Have a nice profit in Realty Income O, thinking of taking a win and looking for a long term oil co maybe?

 
GoBirds said:
What do you guys think of REITs? Have a nice profit in Realty Income O, thinking of taking a win and looking for a long term oil co maybe?
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I've got them in my 401k.

If you're looking for "value," I'd say an energy company like an Exxon or similar oil giant is prob the most price attractive right now. Probably the only companies not trading at an insanely stupid valuation.

 
As some may recall, I pulled my long term investments out about a month ago from our advisor. Today was the first day I actually wondered if I had made a mistake. Dow is prob headed to 20k, on the back of buybacks, negative earnings growth going on multiple straight quarters, and central banks making everyone buy stocks. This stock market is so expensive right now, it is insane! Everyone is so complacent too, it's all just amazing to me.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3999178-sell-everything

Guy makes some solid points here. Favorite part of the article is the chart showing 10 year returns had you invested at certain P/E levels. When that returns to normal levels, I'll put our long term stuff back to work. I can handle missing out on a year or two of gains as I'm very confident I'll be able to buy everything I want now, for a healthy discount at some point when this bizarro bull market dies.

 
FC when the bull market ends is it going to be a huge crash in one day like 1929 and 1987? 

Got almost all of my 401k in cash right now but have stocks elsewhere. Been thinking the crash will happen any time for a couple of years now. 

 
NREC34 said:
FC when the bull market ends is it going to be a huge crash in one day like 1929 and 1987? 

Got almost all of my 401k in cash right now but have stocks elsewhere. Been thinking the crash will happen any time for a couple of years now. 
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We had our once in a forever crash already, I think... Itll be ugly when this bull does die though - such complacency in the market, it's crazy.. I'm not a doom and gloomer, but I agree with that article I posted, we are mortgaging our future with what the central banks are doing now. I'm pretty confident if you invest in the S&P today, your return in 10 years would be below the historical 10 year averages.

Even permabulls won't deny the market is insanely expensive. The biggest issue is central banks - when tough times hit, their biggest tool is cutting interest rates, since everyone is already at or below zero, and they've already been pumping liquidity into the systems for years, what will be left for them to do? 

 
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NREC34 said:
You talking about 2008?

Do you think the election this year could matter?
Click to expand...
Yea, pretty tough to top that, but who knows. 

I'm slightly lunatic conspiracy theorist with the market/election connection right now. The Fed should've tried tightening already. They've pumped trillions into the system, trillions with a ####### T, yet all they've raised rates by is 25 basis points, that's absolutely nothing. Last year they forecasted 4 rate hikes for this year, we aren't even getting one. The central banks around the world are fueling the markets because you can't get yield anywhere, you need to invest in risky assets.

The Fed knows rate hikes might result in stock market volatility. They hiked in December 25 basis points (again, nothing, such a small tiny hike) and we remember what happened in Jan/Feb. A volatile market would be something for Trump to bash Obama/Hillary on. Nobody wants Trump to be president, so I think maybe the Fed is on hold until at least December (the futures from the market have their predictions pushed all the way to mid-2017 for the next tiny invisible 25 basis point hike. When the history books look back on Janet Yellen, I think it won't be pretty).

Stock markets are ripping to all-time highs daily and we can't hike 25 basis points once all year, not a single tiny hike that really doesn't do much anyways. Call me skeptical. Could see the DJIA ripping to 20k. Idk what'll break this bull, doesn't look like it'll be fundamentals though since we're already at historically high levels for valuations (and have been for a little while).

 
Idk how old you are, but FWIW my 401k is fully invested. I'm 33 so the ups/downs mean nothing to me in 401k. I have shifted more towards bonds since last year though, used to be 90/10 stocks/bonds, right now I'm about 70/30 stocks/bonds.

Our savings I treat differently which is why I pulled out.

 
Idk, depends on retirement age. If your plan offers basic retirement date plans, you could just move it to like a 2020 or 2025 retirement year fund so it would be highly highly conservative. If you've got another 20 years until retirement, it's all noise right now anyways.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
You guys really need to be following oil, making a serious bullish reversal. 

The stars really aligned on all oil headlines today. even in Asia right now, they rarely move the oil market and it's up 1.5% there.

I decided to press my winners and bought a bunch of contracts after hours for $43.35... Europe oil traders come online at 2am EDT, I can't sleep. Need to see if they continue this insane bullish momentum or they start selling.
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$45.50 now. Another 2008 Accord in the driveway  :thumbup:

 
FWIW, I think over $45 it does get a little more choppy. We are trading on speculators and not fundamentals right now. IMO the fundamentals still suck and US oil production is nearing a bottom. We added 16 ####### rigs last week, that is a #### ton considering what prices are. It is a lagging indicator, but nonetheless, lets you know where the drillers heads are at. Regardless, when oil bulls or bears are running (and right now it is the bulls, trend = friend), you do not want to be on the other side. 

SA is smart, as I've mentioned, they talk prices up and pump at record levels, same with their peers. Russia joined the "we will discuss stabilizing prices talk" this morning. 

 
Oil? Anyone? Bueller?

Starting to look overdone to me with Brent almost at $50, think the reckless bull buy everything attitude needs to be paused as there is some turbulence ahead, nonetheless - hopefully someone in here cashed in on this unreal run down and then up.

Had to take my son to the emergency room this morning bc he has this ugly cut on his foot, looked infected and we didn't want it getting worse. Missed out on most of the run today, still scalped a 97 Camry though.

Last 2 weeks have been the best 2 week stretch of my trading life. At this point, I've been scaling back the buys and looking for smaller profits, trying to protect gains and just go after smaller gains for the time being, especially with a rocky period ahead in oil, IMO. 

 
Thinking of a dollar cost average strategy in Amazon. 

Basically, just buying one share once a month every month for the next 10-15 years, regardless of price. 

Thoughts?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Oil? Anyone? Bueller?

Starting to look overdone to me with Brent almost at $50, think the reckless bull buy everything attitude needs to be paused as there is some turbulence ahead, nonetheless - hopefully someone in here cashed in on this unreal run down and then up.

Had to take my son to the emergency room this morning bc he has this ugly cut on his foot, looked infected and we didn't want it getting worse. Missed out on most of the run today, still scalped a 97 Camry though.

Last 2 weeks have been the best 2 week stretch of my trading life. At this point, I've been scaling back the buys and looking for smaller profits, trying to protect gains and just go after smaller gains for the time being, especially with a rocky period ahead in oil, IMO. 
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Bought a little bit of DWTI hoping for a temporary pullback.  Not a good day so far for me. 

My goal is to make a 1971 Ford Pinto....in bad condition.

 
Stocktwits is always fun when those things implode. SAEX was highly entertaining watching it go from $75 to $15 in hours. Nothing better than investing $1000 and having $200 3 hours later. 

 
8-9 years ago I used to try penny stocks, got killed on all but one, Lyric Jeans (LYJN) - enjoyed the ride there from like 2 cents to like 15 cents.

Just checked, company has a market cap of $62k and trades at .0001 :lmao:

 
I do, but relatively boring since it has basically stayed flat after the run to 5 and change and the sell back to the 2-3's. 

Just a bunch of "to the moon" and other uninspired nonsense. I don't know why it won't collapse already to 8 cents, frustrating watching it. Maybe the pumpers will circle back around and give it one more bounce.

 
Also, for yield guys that don't mind a little risk, XLE prob worth the add. 3.5% dividend and if you plan on holding for a while, could show some nice returns IMO.

Everything in this market looks expensive to me, but on a value basis, energy is prob closest to actual value. It'll be a rough ride, but oil should be in the 60-80 range in 2 years, this will give XLE a huge boost (barring an economic collapse).

 
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