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Stock Thread (39 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
One thing I noticed this morning even as we opened up fairly big was that TVIX was up 4.5%... I have backed off day trading as it is a zero sum game, but might start keeping tabs on that, just as an indicator. 
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Was looking at it again myself over the weekend.  Looks like a government shut down is really going to happen this time.

 
TripItUp said:
Thinking about getting out of stocks altogether in the short term...over 50% returns on several of my stocks this year...just feels overheated.
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Meh, at this point a 20% correction would still have me on track.  And that would assume a 20% correction took stocks down like 30% or something as I'm not 100% invested in stocks.

 
Chadstroma said:
What have a missed on this? Why the downturn and recent bump up? (I really only pay attention to US banks)
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Dem's want DACA, Trump doesn't.  I don't think either side is giving in.  I also just saw that Bannon was supposed to testify in front of the House today but the WH told him to not answer any questions.  The sell off in bitcoin has people spooked too and think it could affect stocks. :unsure:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Dem's want DACA, Trump doesn't.  I don't think either side is giving in.  I also just saw that Bannon was supposed to testify in front of the House today but the WH told him to not answer any questions.  The sell off in bitcoin has people spooked too and think it could affect stocks. :unsure:
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I hope so, would represent an excellent buying opportunity. 

 
I bet NO ML and had them along with Jax & Philly, ML, & NE -14, in a 4 team parlay this weekend.  Plus a Jax-NO ML parlay and straight NO ML bet.  That missed tackle cost me almost 2 grand. I don't feel like I'm on tilt but maybe I am.

ETA, probably helps I'm up almost 2 grand in the playoffs and really don't bet much.  Only bet the Thanksgiving games until the post season.  Been killing them on ML bets & ML parlays.  Plus I would like to personally thank the Rams as I had $300 ML to win $585.

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
I bet NO ML and had them along with Jax & Philly, ML, & NE -14, in a 4 team parlay this weekend.  Plus a Jax-NO ML parlay and straight NO ML bet.  That missed tackle cost me almost 2 grand. I don't feel like I'm on tilt but maybe I am.
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When I looked at TVIX today, I thought to myself, at least SLB got out around $10 and avoided that next leg down. 

Just an anecdote bc everyone has been there, obviously myself included; it can always get worse (unless it is at $0), bc the first thought most people have when in the situation is "it can't get worse, how much worse can this really get?" And the answer is always "it can get much worse!" - not speaking to anything specifically, but when going through a tough loss, something to always keep in mind...

Hopefully you take some solace in the fact that you got out and avoided that $10 to $5 drop. 

Slogan for these leveraged funds should be; (insert ticker here) is hazardous for your wealth. 

I made a fortune on DWTI/UWTI and gave it back and then some from those, TVIX, and an inverse Nasdaq fund a few years back  :doh:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Dem's want DACA, Trump doesn't.  I don't think either side is giving in.  I also just saw that Bannon was supposed to testify in front of the House today but the WH told him to not answer any questions.  The sell off in bitcoin has people spooked too and think it could affect stocks. :unsure:
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What does all that have to do with Credit Suisse?

 
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the VIX rocketed today - I understand we sold from the highs, but 15%? The DJIA closed down .04%.

 
As I think about that, you can prob give yourself an edge in the near term if you’re willing to do a little work... I’m on my phone, but if I have a minute tomorrow, I’m gonna look at some data on the charts.

Im pretty confident that the VIX rarely moves that much when the Dow is completely flat - the only way to find any meaningful data here is to go back and look at the VIX on days where it has moved at least 15%, when you spot those days, cross reference them on a chart to see what the Dow did. I’d bet you’d only find a handful of days where it did what it did today. If there have been at least 10 times this has happened, looking at what followed over the next 1/2/3/4 weeks, you might be able to uncover something.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
As I think about that, you can prob give yourself an edge in the near term if you’re willing to do a little work... I’m on my phone, but if I have a minute tomorrow, I’m gonna look at some data on the charts.

Im pretty confident that the VIX rarely moves that much when the Dow is completely flat - the only way to find any meaningful data here is to go back and look at the VIX on days where it has moved at least 15%, when you spot those days, cross reference them on a chart to see what the Dow did. I’d bet you’d only find a handful of days where it did what it did today. If there have been at least 10 times this has happened, looking at what followed over the next 1/2/3/4 weeks, you might be able to uncover something.
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Please post real Time opportunity

 
fantasycurse42 said:
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the VIX rocketed today - I understand we sold from the highs, but 15%? The DJIA closed down .04%.
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VIX is based on the spread of futures contracts. Yesterday was the 16th following the 15th of the first week of the quarter.  Probably had to do with this.  

 
Sputnikv8 said:
I don't know much about the market or this stock.  It seems like everytime someone posts a buy here, it declines.  Is that all I need to know? 
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basically

As always I recommend turning safe search off and googling VIX images.  Far more +EV than chasing this stock and will turn things up.

 
The cycle here seems so predictable - market takes a small step back and the next day it shoots to the moon as everyone sees a .5% drawdown as a buying opportunity.  This is as nutty a market as I've seen.  

 
Something tells me the banks run tomorrow... government shutdown schmovernment shutdown, this market doesn’t care. They’ve all now reported earnings, everyone was expecting a mediocre Q4, it’s now in the rear view, 2018 is the focus, and they’re the cheapest valued group anywhere in the market. To no surprise, JPM had the best (only them & C beat on top & bottom), although Citi is trading at a much cheaper book value - nonetheless, I like JPM the best... Maybe just wishful thinking, but I think tomorrow can be a 1% kinda day for them.

Oh yea, COP/Apple/emerging markets :excited:

 
I found this interesting on the valuation of the S&P right now.   The RSI reading was pretty stunning when you consider what a bubble 2000 was.  

Even if we should be hiding cash, the sentiment is so insanely bullish right now...

 
What are predications for when this thing goes South?  I mean up 40% in a year?  Or would flat be considered tanking nowadays?  I just don't see how the fundamentals of the market got so unwound that it's bear proof. 

 
Who the hell knows? Best thing you can do is just ride it out. There have been 100 points throughout this run that would have normally gotten everyone nervous and led to a real sell off. If you followed any of them (I did for one, thankfully I got back in quickly) you'd be out a ton of money. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Something tells me the banks run tomorrow... government shutdown schmovernment shutdown, this market doesn’t care. They’ve all now reported earnings, everyone was expecting a mediocre Q4, it’s now in the rear view, 2018 is the focus, and they’re the cheapest valued group anywhere in the market. To no surprise, JPM had the best (only them & C beat on top & bottom), although Citi is trading at a much cheaper book value - nonetheless, I like JPM the best... Maybe just wishful thinking, but I think tomorrow can be a 1% kinda day for them.

Oh yea, COP/Apple/emerging markets :excited:
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Well, at least BAC is roaring, good for them... And why not, they missed their top line, of course they should be tearing it up today.

 
RUSF18 said:
Who the hell knows? Best thing you can do is just ride it out. There have been 100 points throughout this run that would have normally gotten everyone nervous and led to a real sell off. If you followed any of them (I did for one, thankfully I got back in quickly) you'd be out a ton of money. 
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Yup. I really don't know what people are talking about here. What are you going to do? Stop taking this money because you're worried there may be a drop? That's ridiculous. 

 
Walking Boot said:
:goodposting:

Seriously. If I get caught holding the bag on a 10%, even 20% drop... after a 40% run-up... I count that as a win, not a loss.
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You say this now, but hypothetically, you bought 1k shares of AAPL at $125, it ran up 40% to $175, then dropped 20% to $140 - you'd be a little upset when it was sitting on $140.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
You say this now, but hypothetically, you bought 1k shares of AAPL at $125, it ran up 40% to $175, then dropped 20% to $140 - you'd be a little upset when it was sitting on $140.
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I just tell my broker : "You know, I think you've gotten the wrong impression about me. I think, in all fairness... I should explain to you exactly what it is that I do. Tomorrow morning I'll get up nice and early, and buy more stock. And if it doesn't go up.. I'll crack your f###ing head wide open in front of everybody. And just about the time that I'm coming out of jail... hopefully you'll be coming out of your coma. And guess what? I'll split your f###in' head open again. 'Cause I'm f###in' stupid. I don't give a f### about jail. That's my business. That's what I do."

 
JPM has sold off hard 3x once it got over $113.50 today - I vowed to not daytrade this year, but I want sell it and buy lower, sitting on $113.50 again, I'm itching to sell and collect the 50 cents and buy it back closer to $113. Not gonna do it, but it's getting ready to sell.

I'm not going to though... Now someone trying to spoof it lower, some fake block sell order for like 50k shares just hit. 

 
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Evilgrin 72 said:
I just tell my broker : "You know, I think you've gotten the wrong impression about me. I think, in all fairness... I should explain to you exactly what it is that I do. Tomorrow morning I'll get up nice and early, and buy more stock. And if it doesn't go up.. I'll crack your f###ing head wide open in front of everybody. And just about the time that I'm coming out of jail... hopefully you'll be coming out of your coma. And guess what? I'll split your f###in' head open again. 'Cause I'm f###in' stupid. I don't give a f### about jail. That's my business. That's what I do."
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Quoting one of my top 5 movies ever is a surefire way to snag a like off this guy.

 
Todem said:
Here is a gem of a bio pharma stock IMO and it's trading at a very low valuation and pays a healthy 4% dividend.

Been buying this today for a $78-$80 price target.

ABBV
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@Todem thank you for the ABBV heads up last year.  Been a nice holding.

 
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