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Stock Thread (45 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
oops. 
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Lol

Premier said:
:shrug:  it's gonna be fine guys. Short-term losses for long-term gains. We've all most likely made a ####-ton of money these past 5 years. The Dow is over 23k. Imagine saying that 18 months ago. 
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My short term account is heavy on SPXS right now, up 11% today.

But I don't have much cash to buy low in my retirement account, just 15%  (more now I guess) bonds...

 
Johnnymac said:
I think the political uncertainty has got to be a reason for some of this.

Having a criminal in the WH would not be good for the market one would think.
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I learned a huge lesson in the last 16 months... Don't let politics get in the way of your investment decisions, it's noise.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Looks like there's a lot of falling knife catching going on. 
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I'll use this word over and over again... NOISE.

Until unemployment rises, earnings fall, credit starts defaulting - it's just a shaking of the tree. 

Recession is a very minimal risk right now... It's growing, but not a lot. Outside of a major geopolitical conflict (which is something you can't predict), I don't see it this year - I see buyers waiting not far below. Unfortunately, this selling won't be over until there is some real fear, so we do have some more dropping to go. If we get under 22-22,500 on the DJIA, at that point I'll get a little nervous. 

Market also trying to spook the new Fed Chair, IMO. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I learned a huge lesson in the last 16 months... Don't let politics get in the way of your investment decisions, it's noise.
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That could be, but I think this particular situation needs everyone's attention.

This is not a simple white house scandal.  There is a major criminal in the WH and lots more of them in congress.

I would tread lightly until this thing reaches a conclusion.

 
Johnnymac said:
That could be, but I think this particular situation needs everyone's attention.

This is not a simple white house scandal.  There is a major criminal in the WH and lots more of them in congress.

I would tread lightly until this thing reaches a conclusion.
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This could be said at about 80% of any time in history (past, present, future).

 
Friend of mine's employer switched 401K providers this year.  Cashed them out with a check to be deposited to new provider....on Jan 31.  Talk about timing the market.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'll use this word over and over again... NOISE.

Until unemployment rises, earnings fall, credit starts defaulting - it's just a shaking of the tree. 

Recession is a very minimal risk right now... It's growing, but not a lot. Outside of a major geopolitical conflict (which is something you can't predict), I don't see it this year - I see buyers waiting not far below. Unfortunately, this selling won't be over until there is some real fear, so we do have some more dropping to go. If we get under 22-22,500 on the DJIA, at that point I'll get a little nervous. 

Market also trying to spook the new Fed Chair, IMO. 
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I applaud your optimism. And I agree that the political climate does not have the same effect on market that it used to. But Trump's tax reform provided a nice boost.
 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I learned a huge lesson in the last 16 months... Don't let politics get in the way of your investment decisions, it's noise.
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Its not always noise.

I think a lot of the run-up was on the expectation of a business friendly atmosphere by Team Trump - and they have largely delivered.  If I had to guess, I'd say that the Trumpenomics team really underappreciated the effect of a tax-cut stimulus on a full-employment economy that was chugging along just fine without the stimulus.  Inflation has been in the back of the minds of many investors - for years.  But, it took the tax-cut stimulus to crystalize - and so part of what we see is a direct reaction to that.

And, I think some investors are beginning to price-in the effect of a Dem-wave in the fall.  If you think DC is chaotic now - wait for a Dem controlled house - Trump will be neutered.  The gravy train will be ground to a halt - in terms of free-rein to Wall Street, as gridlock and investigations take over.

So, add it together, correction, inflation worries, and change in political winds - its time to settle in for a long-haul, and cash in the gains from the long-run-up.

I don't see this anywhere near the concerns of 2008.  But, as interest rates rise - it won't be as far away as people want it to be.  Credit Card, mortgage, and car loan defaults will rise...

 
Sinn Fein said:
Its not always noise.

I think a lot of the run-up was on the expectation of a business friendly atmosphere by Team Trump - and they have largely delivered.  If I had to guess, I'd say that the Trumpenomics team really underappreciated the effect of a tax-cut stimulus on a full-employment economy that was chugging along just fine without the stimulus.  Inflation has been in the back of the minds of many investors - for years.  But, it took the tax-cut stimulus to crystalize - and so part of what we see is a direct reaction to that.

And, I think some investors are beginning to price-in the effect of a Dem-wave in the fall.  If you think DC is chaotic now - wait for a Dem controlled house - Trump will be neutered.  The gravy train will be ground to a halt - in terms of free-rein to Wall Street, as gridlock and investigations take over.

So, add it together, correction, inflation worries, and change in political winds - its time to settle in for a long-haul, and cash in the gains from the long-run-up.

I don't see this anywhere near the concerns of 2008.  But, as interest rates rise - it won't be as far away as people want it to be.  Credit Card, mortgage, and car loan defaults will rise...
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You're assuming he has balls to begin with. I agree with the rest.

 
30 year fixed rates at 14 month highs.  Not good....i know they are still historically low, but houses are at historic highs.  What people can qualify for will be impacted with this rate acceleration, doesn't give me a warm fuzzy as a home owner. 

 
Sinn Fein said:
Its not always noise.

I think a lot of the run-up was on the expectation of a business friendly atmosphere by Team Trump - and they have largely delivered.  If I had to guess, I'd say that the Trumpenomics team really underappreciated the effect of a tax-cut stimulus on a full-employment economy that was chugging along just fine without the stimulus.  Inflation has been in the back of the minds of many investors - for years.  But, it took the tax-cut stimulus to crystalize - and so part of what we see is a direct reaction to that.

And, I think some investors are beginning to price-in the effect of a Dem-wave in the fall.  If you think DC is chaotic now - wait for a Dem controlled house - Trump will be neutered.  The gravy train will be ground to a halt - in terms of free-rein to Wall Street, as gridlock and investigations take over.

So, add it together, correction, inflation worries, and change in political winds - its time to settle in for a long-haul, and cash in the gains from the long-run-up.

I don't see this anywhere near the concerns of 2008.  But, as interest rates rise - it won't be as far away as people want it to be.  Credit Card, mortgage, and car loan defaults will rise...
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I’ll preface with I’m drunk, but you make solid points - no questions asked, GOP giving up majority shortly... so let’s look at the net net here:

- businesses/corporations given a very friendly environment, on average, what, 12% more cash in their pocket? Are they going to use this money to their benefit? You’d be a fool to say no - so their net is a huge positive...

- now a huge net/net positive to them, what else is going? Well to start, rock solid balance sheets, we’d be idiotic to not say thank you to Janet on that  - so is their systematic risk, I think not, def not to ther core businesses. 

- consumers? Wages going up, pockets full, lots of credit... check! 

- so where are we? Strong employment, less rIskt credit, money everywhere.... spending.

- net effect? Marketthats overbought but not even close to 2008 conditions

I’m go puke I’ll contjnue tomorrow 

 
Volatility is why you set an asset allocation and then rebalance every 6 months.

If the S&P recovers rapidly, you will have done nothing with no need to have done anything.

If it drops further and stays low you sell a little bonds and buy a little stock, on schedule.

If this is the new level, well then so be it and no damage done other than a little froth got skimmed off a bubbly market.  Healthy.

The rest is noise.  The guys messing with VIX and inverse VIX and leveraged products and getting in and out of commodity stocks on short time frames are doing things with hard-earned money that I would be very uncomfortable with.  But I will admit that it is always tempting.  Good days must be awesome.  Be careful chasing a high, is all I say.

 
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stbugs said:
Amazing how the world works right now. News cycle is do quick these days that just the signal that we we’re too high and wham the pull back happens but it happens so quick. There is no gradual anymore or a it may move if the Fed raises rates. Look at that crypto moves, there is no gradual. 
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Because its all algos now. More than ever, it's the quick or the dead. But algo quick >>>>> human quick. 

 
What’s the market going to think when Mueller lifts his head and tells the world he’s ready to report on the malfeasances of our Dear Leader? 

 
Man... didn’t know I was in the politics forum.

I get factoring in political climate into investments, but this thread has turned into a lot of partisan hand wringing colored with petty name calling. A bit disappointing as this place used to be a good follow/read.

Hopefully the offending parties choose to grow up, get their #### together, and keep that crap in the forum that was made for it. 

 
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I read this thread almost every day, and I don't think it has turned into a lot of partisan hand wringing with petty name calling.  There is usually not much political commentary in here, and even with the commentary in the last day or so, nobody was arguing and it just spawned from the market tumbles. All threads take a little detour now and then  :drive: . Anyway, the market has been long overdue for a correction.

 
simey said:
I read this thread almost every day, and I don't think it has turned into a lot of partisan hand wringing with petty name calling.  There is usually not much political commentary in here, and even with the commentary in the last day or so, nobody was arguing and it just spawned from the market tumbles. All threads take a little detour now and then  :drive: . Anyway, the market has been long overdue for a correction.
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Correct - I didn't see a thing like what icon described.  I saw discussion about how the markets will be affected by the politics in this country.  Perfectly normal stuff

 
[icon] said:
Man... didn’t know I was in the politics forum.

I get factoring in political climate into investments, but this thread has turned into a lot of partisan hand wringing colored with petty name calling. A bit disappointing as this place used to be a good follow/read.

Hopefully the offending parties choose to grow up, get their #### together, and keep that crap in the forum that was made for it. 
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:confused:  I think discussing the president, any president, and possible implications are more than welcome in a stock thread. 

If something goes down with trump that will certainly have a major impact on everything stock related. 

 
Premier said:
:confused:  I think discussing the president, any president, and possible implications are more than welcome in a stock thread. 

If something goes down with trump that will certainly have a major impact on everything stock related. 
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Wouldn't worry about it.  It was just our turn to get yelled at.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We're close to that previous bottom, this is where you do need to pay attention. We get slammed here and there is more downside. 
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5% more will not surprise me. We have 11 months left in 2018. A lot of time to come back and move higher and make new highs by year end. In the meantime collect your dividends.

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
Possibly, what is it? :oldunsure:
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Discord is kinda the "new thing" a site/app where you can create basically a chat room for anything instantly and keep it private/contained, etc etc.  It's just a little more "instant" than a msg board thread.  

If you haven't heard of it yet, you will I'd imagine - it's getting pretty big.

You don't have to but we already have 8 guys over there.

 
simey said:
I read this thread almost every day, and I don't think it has turned into a lot of partisan hand wringing with petty name calling.  There is usually not much political commentary in here, and even with the commentary in the last day or so, nobody was arguing and it just spawned from the market tumbles. All threads take a little detour now and then  :drive: . Anyway, the market has been long overdue for a correction.
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Good posting, lets get things back on track fellas.  There is certainly an effect on the markets but lets keep the name calling and such in the other forum.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I've got more purchases I'm getting ready for.
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What are you buying?  I just sold all of my Verizon and wells fargo preffered (both were cash holding facilities that did their respective jobs) representing roughly 30% of my portfolio.  I am contemplating 50/50 bank stock and tech (most likely apple and amazon)

 
John Bender said:
Discord is kinda the "new thing" a site/app where you can create basically a chat room for anything instantly and keep it private/contained, etc etc.  It's just a little more "instant" than a msg board thread.  

If you haven't heard of it yet, you will I'd imagine - it's getting pretty big.

You don't have to but we already have 8 guys over there.
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Pass, GB.  I know they don't like linking to competitors.   I tried to sign up and it was stuck in loading.  I don't need any other apps myself but hope you guys still come around.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Pass, GB.  I know they don't like linking to competitors.   I tried to sign up and it was stuck in loading.  I don't need any other apps myself but hope you guys still come around.
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It's just a supplement. Of course I'll still be here, if I'm correct, FBGs has its own discord as well.

 
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