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Stock Thread (32 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Start of panic selling. We've got another flush coming too, IMO. This isn't over.
I've got open orders at $1,250 & $1,195.
TBH, I think we need some panic to end this, unfortunately.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
We prob need that last panic induced flush to flip this around, prob on Monday or Tuesday - then we'll wobble & whipsaw as the market looks for a bottom (which it will hopefully find).
We'll prob dip a little below 22,500 DJIA and somewhere between 21,800 - 22,500, we'll have a bottom. I don't expect this to just snapback though, so could be months before getting back near those highs. Just gonna have to buckle up and stop looking, IMO.
We'll prob dip a little below 22,500 DJIA and somewhere between 21,800 - 22,500, we'll have a bottom. I don't expect this to just snapback though, so could be months before getting back near those highs. Just gonna have to buckle up and stop looking, IMO.
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tommyGunZ
Footballguy
W/re to AAPL - you think the management team is smiling this week? They're getting ready to bring home literal BOATLOADS (if they haven't already), and are going to use a ton of it for stock repurchases. Just incredible timing - that denominator is just going to get smaller and smaller.
Incredible time to buy AAPL, IMO.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Nice $100 range on AMZN today, really is trading like Bitcoin 
The General
Footballguy
Yup. I’m going to load up on them. Probably going to keep going down for a bit but I’m not going to try and time it. Just buying it at a discount and hold onto it for awhile.
I'm not a real big fan of AAPL (I think I've posted my thoughts on them before), but ffs, their current PE is lower than JPM and BAC. After they repatriate all that cash, they want to go cash neutral and could possible buy back enough of their shares to get their PE into single digits? (I haven't done the math, but something I think I heard).
I'm not buying yet because this stock market is whacky, but AAPL certainly looks very appealing to me
I'm not buying yet because this stock market is whacky, but AAPL certainly looks very appealing to me
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Back into TVIX at $13.25 
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I've got my orders open, I'm monitoring the macro picture, and unless something changes, why am I going to stare at it? Only bad things, pain, and bad decisions can happen by doing that.
Premier
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It got close at $1,265 and you saw some buying down there come in, prob technical traders. Absolutely going to test those levels.
sbonomo
Footballguy
I agree with this strategy. By setting a limit order it either fills or it doesn't.
I've got my orders open, I'm monitoring the macro picture, and unless something changes, why am I going to stare at it? Only bad things, pain, and bad decisions can happen by doing that.
Redwes25
Footballguy
I took a little off the table at end of year given the run up last year. Was pretty annoyed at myself all through January but glad I did now. Starting to think it is getting close to put some of that money back to work.
Note - Due to job I am not able to purchase stocks (actual I can but it is a huge hassle) so would just be purchasing ETFs tied to indexes.
Note - Due to job I am not able to purchase stocks (actual I can but it is a huge hassle) so would just be purchasing ETFs tied to indexes.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
sbonomo
Footballguy
Because you're an addict? (not that many of us aren't, but still.....)
I've got my orders open, I'm monitoring the macro picture, and unless something changes, why am I going to stare at it? Only bad things, pain, and bad decisions can happen by doing that.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
James Daulton
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Wow, majority of my stuff finished green...
S&P got to within 32 points of 2,500 and buyers came in. Before getting excited, def expect lows to be tested again.
S&P got to within 32 points of 2,500 and buyers came in. Before getting excited, def expect lows to be tested again.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Looking at AMZN, peak to trough 15.5% in 9 days, pretty wild action. I don't get the sense it is done.
I've still got some powder waiting, but I did grab a few things today.
added more GD $209
opened MCD $156.8
I've still got some powder waiting, but I did grab a few things today.
added more GD $209
opened MCD $156.8
hagmania
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just some food for thought after some weekend reading, more macro:
Spending bill/tax reform are going to almost double treasury bond issuance moving forward - meanwhile the Fed is also supposedly trying to reduce it's massive $4.5T balance sheet (this was under $1T before 2008). But wait, we could have even more spending if this infrastructure bill passes.
That is a #### ton of debt to sop up at low rates... Meanwhile the orange moron in charge threatens trade wars with our biggest debt purchaser. This is all super bearish for bonds.
Spending bill/tax reform are going to almost double treasury bond issuance moving forward - meanwhile the Fed is also supposedly trying to reduce it's massive $4.5T balance sheet (this was under $1T before 2008). But wait, we could have even more spending if this infrastructure bill passes.
That is a #### ton of debt to sop up at low rates... Meanwhile the orange moron in charge threatens trade wars with our biggest debt purchaser. This is all super bearish for bonds.
culdeus
Footballguy
Yeah, I have literally no idea what to do with my bond allocation. I've always overweighted mid-term treasuries, and tax-free stuff in ETF as a matter of just simple bogle head theory, but now I'm thinking of actually going out and getting real paper, school bonds and the like.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Off-topic, but WTF....
My first day working in brokerage operations on Wall St, circa 1994. I walk into the now-extinct 5 WTC and go to my desk. First thing they tell me to do is go down to the 4th floor and locate the "bond stretcher." I sniffed this out in 2 minutes as a BS task they give people as a hazing ritual. The whole building is aware of this and the aim is to send people on a wild goose chase around the building hunting for this item that doesn't exist. Instead, I just went straight to the bar in the mall below the WTC and sat and drank Guinness for 2 hours. Went back to the office buzzed and played it up that I went all over the building looking for this thing. Everyone had a rousing laugh at my expense.
A couple of months later, over lunch with the VP in charge of the whole account transfer operation, I confided that I had actually spent all that time at the very bar we were currently seated in and told him they needed a more convincing MacGuffin than "bond stretcher." By my 4 month anniversary, I was in charge of the department I had just joined. Two years after that, the same guy was put in change of the new online brokerage in Salt Lake City and relocated me out there for 2 years to run the mutual fund and money market operations divisions. I parlayed that experience into my current job and met my now-wife out there at the same time.
Literally everything I have now has its origins in the fact that I didn't fall for a joke about stretching bonds. I love bonds.
My first day working in brokerage operations on Wall St, circa 1994. I walk into the now-extinct 5 WTC and go to my desk. First thing they tell me to do is go down to the 4th floor and locate the "bond stretcher." I sniffed this out in 2 minutes as a BS task they give people as a hazing ritual. The whole building is aware of this and the aim is to send people on a wild goose chase around the building hunting for this item that doesn't exist. Instead, I just went straight to the bar in the mall below the WTC and sat and drank Guinness for 2 hours. Went back to the office buzzed and played it up that I went all over the building looking for this thing. Everyone had a rousing laugh at my expense.
A couple of months later, over lunch with the VP in charge of the whole account transfer operation, I confided that I had actually spent all that time at the very bar we were currently seated in and told him they needed a more convincing MacGuffin than "bond stretcher." By my 4 month anniversary, I was in charge of the department I had just joined. Two years after that, the same guy was put in change of the new online brokerage in Salt Lake City and relocated me out there for 2 years to run the mutual fund and money market operations divisions. I parlayed that experience into my current job and met my now-wife out there at the same time.
Literally everything I have now has its origins in the fact that I didn't fall for a joke about stretching bonds. I love bonds.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I credit that Cheers episode for my ability to decipher the bond-stretcher joke.
I also used that same episode as inspiration to send this kid I knew from my hometown into a guns & ammo shop in NJ asking for ".22 caliber snipe shot." Then, I sent him into Sears asking for the same thing after he was laughed out of the gun store and he actually did it again. I also convinced the same kid to shave off his eyebrows by telling him that since he'd shaved his armpits in an attempt to stop leaving pit stains on all his clothes (including a leather jacket, I #### you not) that he had to shave his eyebrows or he'd ruin his "sweat circulation." That idiot walked around for a month with no eyebrows.
In retrospect, he probably had an IQ of about 81. I probably should have been kinder to him, but he was kind of a #### and was the cause of me getting an underage possession of alcohol citation when I was 18, so #### him.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
No clue at all what to do on that side, but I see nothing but bearish catalysts for bonds on the horizon, each worse than the next.Yeah, I have literally no idea what to do with my bond allocation. I've always overweighted mid-term treasuries, and tax-free stuff in ETF as a matter of just simple bogle head theory, but now I'm thinking of actually going out and getting real paper, school bonds and the like.
If someone doesn't stop the orange moron in charge, we'll have 18% 10 year notes by the time he is out of office.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Meanwhile, AMZN trading in a much more narrow $55 dollar range today... I mean, I guess that is better than $100 range it averaged last week, but the day is still young.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If I was a gambling man (which I no longer am), I'd wager aggressively that selling around close today and buying back around close tomorrow would be a lucrative venture.
culdeus
Footballguy
I mean we are all getting older. At some point it makes sense to buy bonds and ladder them so they mature relatively annually. This takes all the day to day volatility out of the equation, but does nothing if all of a sudden inflation goes to 15%.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm in the camp that says at some point we see a government debt crisis... my feelings are the current administration helped expedite the process. It's prob 10-20 years out, but that'll be the portfolio atomic blast.
culdeus
Footballguy
In the past, I've only ever bothered getting Texas ISD bonds. Tax free muni stuff isn't subject to the whims of DC.
General Malaise
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
PEATF!! This is up 19% today :mansions:
