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Stock Thread (38 Viewers)

sbonomo said:
What are you buying?  I just sold all of my Verizon and wells fargo preffered (both were cash holding facilities that did their respective jobs) representing roughly 30% of my portfolio.  I am contemplating 50/50 bank stock and tech (most likely apple and amazon)
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Adding to AAPL, AMZN, JPM, GD

Opening DWDP, MCD, CAT

 
We prob need that last panic induced flush to flip this around, prob on Monday or Tuesday - then we'll wobble & whipsaw as the market looks for a bottom (which it will hopefully find).

We'll prob dip a little below 22,500 DJIA and somewhere between 21,800 - 22,500, we'll have a bottom. I don't expect this to just snapback though, so could be months before getting back near those highs. Just gonna have to buckle up and stop looking, IMO.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Adding to AAPL, AMZN, JPM, GD

Opening DWDP, MCD, CAT
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W/re to AAPL - you think the management team is smiling this week?  They're getting ready to bring home literal BOATLOADS (if they haven't already), and are going to use a ton of it for stock repurchases.  Just incredible timing - that denominator is just going to get smaller and smaller.  

Incredible time to buy AAPL, IMO.

 
tommyGunZ said:
W/re to AAPL - you think the management team is smiling this week?  They're getting ready to bring home literal BOATLOADS (if they haven't already), and are going to use a ton of it for stock repurchases.  Just incredible timing - that denominator is just going to get smaller and smaller.  

Incredible time to buy AAPL, IMO.
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Yup. I’m going to load up on them. Probably going to keep going down for a bit but I’m not going to try and time it. Just buying it at a discount and hold onto it for awhile.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We prob need that last panic induced flush to flip this around, prob on Monday or Tuesday - then we'll wobble & whipsaw as the market looks for a bottom (which it will hopefully find).

We'll prob dip a little below 22,500 DJIA and somewhere between 21,800 - 22,500, we'll have a bottom. I don't expect this to just snapback though, so could be months before getting back near those highs. Just gonna have to buckle up and stop looking, IMO.
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:lmao:

 
I'm not a real big fan of AAPL (I think I've posted my thoughts on them before), but ffs, their current PE is lower than JPM and BAC.  After they repatriate all that cash, they want to go cash neutral and could possible buy back enough of their shares to get their PE into single digits? (I haven't done the math, but something I think I heard).

I'm not buying yet because this stock market is whacky, but AAPL certainly looks very appealing to me

 
in on apple at 153.06.  Limit order for AMZN set at 1250.  If that does not fill in the next few weeks I will probably buy either JPM or BAC and Berkshire.   

 
sbonomo said:
in on apple at 153.06.  Limit order for AMZN set at 1250.  If that does not fill in the next few weeks I will probably buy either JPM or BAC and Berkshire.   
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It got close at $1,265 and you saw some buying down there come in, prob technical traders. Absolutely going to test those levels.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
:shrug:

I've got my orders open, I'm monitoring the macro picture, and unless something changes, why am I going to stare at it? Only bad things, pain, and bad decisions can happen by doing that.
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I agree with this strategy.  By setting a limit order it either fills or it doesn't. 

 
I took a little off the table at end of year given the run up last year.  Was pretty annoyed at myself all through January but glad I did now.  Starting to think it is getting close to put some of that money back to work.  

Note - Due to job I am not able to purchase stocks (actual I can but it is a huge hassle) so would just be purchasing ETFs tied to indexes.  

 
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Wow, majority of my stuff finished green... 

S&P got to within 32 points of 2,500 and buyers came in. Before getting excited, def expect lows to be tested again. 

 
Looking at AMZN, peak to trough 15.5% in 9 days, pretty wild action. I don't get the sense it is done. 

I've still got some powder waiting, but I did grab a few things today.

added more GD $209

opened MCD $156.8

 
Just some food for thought after some weekend reading, more macro:

Spending bill/tax reform are going to almost double treasury bond issuance moving forward - meanwhile the Fed is also supposedly trying to reduce it's massive $4.5T balance sheet (this was under $1T before 2008). But wait, we could have even more spending if this infrastructure bill passes. 

That is a #### ton of debt to sop up at low rates... Meanwhile the orange moron in charge threatens trade wars with our biggest debt purchaser. This is all super bearish for bonds. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Just some food for thought after some weekend reading, more macro:

Spending bill/tax reform are going to almost double treasury bond issuance moving forward - meanwhile the Fed is also supposedly trying to reduce it's massive $4.5T balance sheet (this was under $1T before 2008). But wait, we could have even more spending if this infrastructure bill passes. 

That is a #### ton of debt to sop up at low rates... Meanwhile the orange moron in charge threatens trade wars with our biggest debt purchaser. This is all super bearish for bonds. 
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Yeah, I have literally no idea what to do with my bond allocation.  I've always overweighted mid-term treasuries, and tax-free stuff in ETF as a matter of just simple bogle head theory, but now I'm thinking of actually going out and getting real paper, school bonds and the like.  

:shrug:  

 
Off-topic, but WTF....

My first day working in brokerage operations on Wall St, circa 1994.  I walk into the now-extinct 5 WTC and go to my desk.  First thing they tell me to do is go down to the 4th floor and locate the "bond stretcher."  I sniffed this out in 2 minutes as a BS task they give people as a hazing ritual.  The whole building is aware of this and the aim is to send people on a wild goose chase around the building hunting for this item that doesn't exist.  Instead, I just went straight to the bar in the mall below the WTC and sat and drank Guinness for 2 hours.  Went back to the office buzzed and played it up that I went all over the building looking for this thing.  Everyone had a rousing laugh at my expense.

A couple of months later, over lunch with the VP in charge of the whole account transfer operation, I confided that I had actually spent all that time at the very bar we were currently seated in and told him they needed a more convincing MacGuffin than "bond stretcher."  By my 4 month anniversary, I was in charge of the department I had just joined.  Two years after that, the same guy was put in change of the new online brokerage in Salt Lake City and relocated me out there for 2 years to run the mutual fund and money market operations divisions.  I parlayed that experience into my current job and met my now-wife out there at the same time.

Literally everything I have now has its origins in the fact that I didn't fall for a joke about stretching bonds.  I love bonds.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Off-topic, but WTF....

My first day working in brokerage operations on Wall St, circa 1994.  I walk into the now-extinct 5 WTC and go to my desk.  First thing they tell me to do is go down to the 4th floor and locate the "bond stretcher."  I sniffed this out in 2 minutes as a BS task they give people as a hazing ritual.  The whole building is aware of this and the aim is to send people on a wild goose chase around the building hunting for this item that doesn't exist.  Instead, I just went straight to the bar in the mall below the WTC and sat and drank Guinness for 2 hours.  Went back to the office buzzed and played it up that I went all over the building looking for this thing.  Everyone had a rousing laugh at my expense.

A couple of months later, over lunch with the VP in charge of the whole account transfer operation, I confided that I had actually spent all that time at the very bar we were currently seated in and told him they needed a more convincing MacGuffin than "bond stretcher."  By my 4 month anniversary, I was in charge of the department I had just joined.  Two years after that, the same guy was put in change of the new online brokerage in Salt Lake City and relocated me out there for 2 years to run the mutual fund and money market operations divisions.  I parlayed that experience into my current job and met my now-wife out there at the same time.

Literally everything I have now has its origins in the fact that I didn't fall for a joke about stretching bonds.  I love bonds.
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rules

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Off-topic, but WTF....

My first day working in brokerage operations on Wall St, circa 1994.  I walk into the now-extinct 5 WTC and go to my desk.  First thing they tell me to do is go down to the 4th floor and locate the "bond stretcher."  I sniffed this out in 2 minutes as a BS task they give people as a hazing ritual.  The whole building is aware of this and the aim is to send people on a wild goose chase around the building hunting for this item that doesn't exist.  Instead, I just went straight to the bar in the mall below the WTC and sat and drank Guinness for 2 hours.  Went back to the office buzzed and played it up that I went all over the building looking for this thing.  Everyone had a rousing laugh at my expense.

A couple of months later, over lunch with the VP in charge of the whole account transfer operation, I confided that I had actually spent all that time at the very bar we were currently seated in and told him they needed a more convincing MacGuffin than "bond stretcher."  By my 4 month anniversary, I was in charge of the department I had just joined.  Two years after that, the same guy was put in change of the new online brokerage in Salt Lake City and relocated me out there for 2 years to run the mutual fund and money market operations divisions.  I parlayed that experience into my current job and met my now-wife out there at the same time.

Literally everything I have now has its origins in the fact that I didn't fall for a joke about stretching bonds.  I love bonds.
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How do you feel about snipe hunting?  Looking for a new hunting partner. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
How do you feel about snipe hunting?  Looking for a new hunting partner. 
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I credit that Cheers episode for my ability to decipher the bond-stretcher joke.

I also used that same episode as inspiration to send this kid I knew from my hometown into a guns & ammo shop in NJ asking for ".22 caliber snipe shot."  Then, I sent him into Sears asking for the same thing after he was laughed out of the gun store and he actually did it again.  I also convinced the same kid to shave off his eyebrows by telling him that since he'd shaved his armpits in an attempt to stop leaving pit stains on all his clothes (including a leather jacket, I #### you not) that he had to shave his eyebrows or he'd ruin his "sweat circulation."  That idiot walked around for a month with no eyebrows.

In retrospect, he probably had an IQ of about 81.  I probably should have been kinder to him, but he was kind of a #### and was the cause of me getting an underage possession of alcohol citation when I was 18, so #### him.

 
culdeus said:
Yeah, I have literally no idea what to do with my bond allocation.  I've always overweighted mid-term treasuries, and tax-free stuff in ETF as a matter of just simple bogle head theory, but now I'm thinking of actually going out and getting real paper, school bonds and the like.  

:shrug:  
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No clue at all what to do on that side, but I see nothing but bearish catalysts for bonds on the horizon, each worse than the next. 

If someone doesn't stop the orange moron in charge, we'll have 18% 10 year notes by the time he is out of office. 

 
Meanwhile, AMZN trading in a much more narrow $55 dollar range today... I mean, I guess that is better than $100 range it averaged last week, but the day is still young. 

 
If I was a gambling man (which I no longer am), I'd wager aggressively that selling around close today and buying back around close tomorrow would be a lucrative venture. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
No clue at all what to do on that side, but I see nothing but bearish catalysts for bonds on the horizon, each worse than the next. 

If someone doesn't stop the orange moron in charge, we'll have 18% 10 year notes by the time he is out of office. 
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I mean we are all getting older.  At some point it makes sense to buy bonds and ladder them so they mature relatively annually.  This takes all the day to day volatility out of the equation, but does nothing if all of a sudden inflation goes to 15%. 

 
culdeus said:
I mean we are all getting older.  At some point it makes sense to buy bonds and ladder them so they mature relatively annually.  This takes all the day to day volatility out of the equation, but does nothing if all of a sudden inflation goes to 15%. 
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I'm in the camp that says at some point we see a government debt crisis... my feelings are the current administration helped expedite the process. It's prob 10-20 years out, but that'll be the portfolio atomic blast.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm in the camp that says at some point we see a government debt crisis... my feelings are the current administration helped expedite the process. It's prob 10-20 years out, but that'll be the portfolio atomic blast.
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In the past, I've only ever bothered getting Texas ISD bonds.  Tax free muni stuff isn't subject to the whims of DC.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Off-topic, but WTF....

My first day working in brokerage operations on Wall St, circa 1994.  I walk into the now-extinct 5 WTC and go to my desk.  First thing they tell me to do is go down to the 4th floor and locate the "bond stretcher."  I sniffed this out in 2 minutes as a BS task they give people as a hazing ritual.  The whole building is aware of this and the aim is to send people on a wild goose chase around the building hunting for this item that doesn't exist.  Instead, I just went straight to the bar in the mall below the WTC and sat and drank Guinness for 2 hours.  Went back to the office buzzed and played it up that I went all over the building looking for this thing.  Everyone had a rousing laugh at my expense.

A couple of months later, over lunch with the VP in charge of the whole account transfer operation, I confided that I had actually spent all that time at the very bar we were currently seated in and told him they needed a more convincing MacGuffin than "bond stretcher."  By my 4 month anniversary, I was in charge of the department I had just joined.  Two years after that, the same guy was put in change of the new online brokerage in Salt Lake City and relocated me out there for 2 years to run the mutual fund and money market operations divisions.  I parlayed that experience into my current job and met my now-wife out there at the same time.

Literally everything I have now has its origins in the fact that I didn't fall for a joke about stretching bonds.  I love bonds.
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so good :thumbup:

 
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