sporthenry
Footballguy
Honestly, the fact we aren't hitting limit down is pretty amazing. I suppose that shows you either how much trust folks have in the Fed or how much they fade the administration on what they say publicly.
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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
caustic
Footballguy
Dow futures down only 40 points now.Yeah it's pretty surprising it hasn't dropped more. Anyone want to bet $5 that we're green by open?
CNBC: Stock futures recovered earlier losses after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro clarified that the U.S.-China trade deal is not over.
“My comments have been taken wildly out of context,” Navarro said in a statement. “They had nothing at all to do with the Phase I trade deal, which continues in place.”
Earlier in the session, Dow futures had dropped about 400 points. Futures plunged after Navarro’s Monday interview on Fox News’ “The Story.”
Fox’s Marth MacCallum asked, “Do you think that the president sort of- I mean, he obviously really wanted to hang onto this trade deal as much as possible. And he wanted them to make good on the promises, because there had been progress made on that trade deal, but given everything that’s happened and all the things you just listed, is that over?”
“It’s over. Yes,” Navarro responded.
Last edited by a moderator:
CR69
Footballguy
This is just crazy. Never would have guessed we'd be green like 10 minutes after I posted that.Dow futures down only 40 points now.
CNBC: Stock futures recovered earlier losses after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro clarified that the U.S.-China trade deal is not over.
“My comments have been taken wildly out of context,” Navarro said in a statement. “They had nothing at all to do with the Phase I trade deal, which continues in place.”
Earlier in the session, Dow futures had dropped about 400 points. Futures plunged after Navarro’s Monday interview on Fox News’ “The Story.”
Fox’s Marth MacCallum asked, “Do you think that the president sort of- I mean, he obviously really wanted to hang onto this trade deal as much as possible. And he wanted them to make good on the promises, because there had been progress made on that trade deal, but given everything that’s happened and all the things you just listed, is that over?”
“It’s over. Yes,” Navarro responded.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I mean given the market is all they have, I do expect the administration to talk it up. It is pretty amazing how much negative things they say that the market just brushes off. But I think I'm ready to capitulate. If this headline doesn't push markets lower then what will?Yeah it's pretty surprising it hasn't dropped more. Anyone want to bet $5 that we're green by open?
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah at this point I would expect an imminent astroid strike would push the S&P to new highs lol.
That would be good for my ZM. I’d assume that after an asteroid strike that even more people would be working from home. Can’t go outside with the radiation and dust cloud. It should hit $300 within a week.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I don't have the personal knowledge, but I have a family relative who is the chair of medicine at a top 20 medical university and a good friend who is senior pulmonologist at another university. Both have offered unsolicited statements of "no, this was not created in a lab". Both also acknowledged that there is a lot that we don't know about this virus, and more importantly that how we are handling it is asinine.
Yeah, thanks. Did some more research myself on the tax angle, not really worried about that anymore. Seems better to keep my limited Roth space on more speculative ideas. This whole space of similar companies to BEP is interesting.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The virus itself was not created in a lab--it was most likely manipulated in one. Watch the clip that I have linked below my post. A respected biologist/professor who studies bats explains why it's very unlikely that the virus jumped from bats to humans so quickly and succcesfully. With that said--I will stop there--as I only put that post in here relative to its potential impact both economically and politically solely in regards to the markets and I want to avoid getting sucked in to any discussions that are not market related.
I watched it, and found it interesting. I concur with keeping this focused on economics and markets. Mostly because I have a better chance of understanding that.
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Good?
Easy to win?
Easy to win?
CR69
Footballguy
Any concerns that it will slip on the news?
Great call.Yeah it's pretty surprising it hasn't dropped more. Anyone want to bet $5 that we're green by open?
I hope some of you joined me on the FSLY rocket. Based on premarket, it’s up about 50% in a week and that’s after quadrupling since the March lows. Wish I wasn’t worried about another steeper drop. Bought only a 100 more when it was at 11 in March. That’s up 600% based on the premarket price of 78. Even the first purchase in November at 19 is way up.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think I'm getting ready to bail. None of this makes sense, and we've gone from extreme fear to extreme greed. We're up big today bc some meaningless trade deal that never had any teeth is still on... Think about it, this almost daily we're up big on nothing. This is exuberance and my gains are incredible, as I think anyone with a pulse and a brokerage account is too. We've got double digit unemployment and that isn't letting up anytime soon. A good percentage of those jobs aren't coming back in the near future and it'll be years and years until we get down to where we were.
Either we're due for a huge pullback, or this time is different and the Fed has changed the game completely (which would mean this really isn't a market). Personally, I don't think there is much middle ground between those two.
Someone talk me off the ledge and tell me not to sell.
Either we're due for a huge pullback, or this time is different and the Fed has changed the game completely (which would mean this really isn't a market). Personally, I don't think there is much middle ground between those two.
Someone talk me off the ledge and tell me not to sell.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I do love how Navarro backtracked and said this "They had nothing at all to do with the Phase I trade deal, which continues in place. I was simply speaking to the lack of trust we now have of the Chinese Communist Party after they lied about the origins of the China virus and foisted a pandemic upon the world."
That doesn't seem very bullish and speaks to escalating tensions. But those soybeans will fund the stock market.
That doesn't seem very bullish and speaks to escalating tensions. But those soybeans will fund the stock market.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
if someone did think there is a huge drop coming, where is the smart place to put $$$? Pretty much cash is the best option?
sporthenry
Footballguy
I'm close to capitulating on the other side. Just going to find some places to park cash that is not in the $ and see what happens. The bolded is where I shake out. I do think the Fed is hoping things are recovering as they begin QT so as the balance sheet starts to shrink, the fundamentals can pick it up from there. Obviously, that wouldn't bode well for future returns. As you allude to, it won't really be a market, at least in the historical sense. Equities will be fixed-income like returns and your historic returns are likely 3-5%. Heck, folks on CNBC are just saying, invest as long as the Fed provides liquidity. That is the epitome of moral hazard. I guess I've become a bit of a Fed truther. But it seems like apart from a few folks that I've sought out on Twitter, nobody seems to care that we've turned into a central planning economy that manipulates its currency. Guess nobody cares as long as they're making money. But history says, central bank intervention likely doesn't end well. That or the system that we've been using for the past hundred years has been wrong. I'd take your comment one step further and if we don't get a huge pullback, we're headed for MMT where there are no taxes.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Man, there are a lot of posts the past few pages that are keeping me bullish as a contrarian. Too many people are bearish which is usually a good sign for stocks.
YTD
1.2 trillion into cash
81 billion into investment grade and high yield bonds
36 billion into gold
24 billion into government bonds
30 billion out of stocks
Too much money in cash so any dip we see there is support. I think we continue to see volatility but the March lows are long gone.
YTD
1.2 trillion into cash
81 billion into investment grade and high yield bonds
36 billion into gold
24 billion into government bonds
30 billion out of stocks
Too much money in cash so any dip we see there is support. I think we continue to see volatility but the March lows are long gone.
Sell off gradually into the strength to a certain allocation.
The problem is that 2/3 the market is still down 40%+ from 3 months ago and doesn't have far to fall, the other 1/3 leading the rally is stocks we want to hold longer term. This rally continues until people are willing to sell their FANG.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
4.40
sporthenry
Footballguy
Fed balance sheet up $3T. That is the issue. That makes most of those other numbers rounding errors. You're essentially just investing in the Fed at this point. I know the tail is wagging the dog at this point and Powell seems stuck on this stock market impact on GDP. Of course the Fed likely won't tank the market but they could tighten just as easily as folks could chase momo.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Correct I meant to mention the Fed in my post. Don't fight the Fed is very evident again. I just don't see the Fed tightening anytime soon.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
30-35% of the value in our markets (outside of maybe big tech and the select companies that thrived during the lockdown) is basically a product of an artificial propping up by the Fed and the future dilution of the dollar. In March our Dow hit a low of 18k and change and since then we've risen roughly 45%. With that said--I do think the future dilution of the dollar will act as a backstop to a huge pullback--and I do think that the current administration will do anything and everything they can to at least keep the market propped up to the election. I do agree that at some point--the fundamentals will have to catch up--and there will probably be some painful days in the near and mid term. Personally I'd expect the market to bounce around in an overall sideways fashion for a while unless we get some geo-political stuff that sends things lower--which is one of my biggest fears. My advice is not to bail out completely--but to pick and choose the solid names you like --and roll with those for a while. If you want to take some profits to lower your costs or to re-balance into strong names that you do have full confidence in--that's not a bad idea.
The General
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Has this been firmed up / confirmed? Sorry been traveling and am out of touch this past week.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Went all in on cydy. Had to wait until today for funds to settle. Had small amount of shares at $3. Now many more at $4.45. Wished I made the big decision earlier, but better to be in now than later. At least that is what I am repeating in my head over and over and over.....
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'm actually thinking about selling some for a slight profit. Have you been buying and holding or are mainly buying and flipping for a quick profit? My biggest fear is that it feels like all 3 of the major sports seem to be having setbacks in regards to trying to get their seasons figured out.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I don't think your 2/3 number is right. In fact, I think it's really wrong unless you've seen something recently. For one, I've harped on how dilution and debt aren't 'free.' But beyond that, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US equities is only down ~8.4% since Feb 19 peak. It peaked at $35.3T which would now mean it's at about $32.3T. So you're still down ~$3T. When I looked a few weeks ago, while FAANGM has been resilient, AMZN was the only stock that added massively to its market cap and that was $250bn. So the rest of the market likely isn't down much more than 10%.
You obviously have the $3T from the Fed. I read somewhere that during the closure, we lost ~$1T/month but that number seemed finger in the air. So I suppose you can justify we can go back to ATHs, get that $3T back since the Fed essentially backstopped the $3T we lost during the shutdown. Now this is all under the assumption that it is a V-shape.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
I don’t believe it has been made an official thing. All speculation but expected.
I’m sure there are definitely other factors as well but this seems to be a major hurdle and a huge image thing for a company.
I have been buying in the 40s and selling in the 42-43s. Yesterday I bought back in the low 40s thinking it would hold at 40 and doubled down at 38.26. Sold off that last buy at $40.28.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yeah it's pretty surprising it hasn't dropped more. Anyone want to bet $5 that we're green by open?
sporthenry
Footballguy
That is fair and I'm getting close to tapping out fighting the Fed. I suppose my backing isn't as large as theirs. But I also don't think the Fed has to actually tighten. Folks are assuming they're going to do anything, including buy equities. Just the mere thought that the Fed will step back will cause this market to sell-off hard. Maybe that never comes but remember we got a 15% correction when the Fed threatened 2 hikes in 2019 and allowed $50bn to run off the balance sheet. What happens if they allow $1T to run off?
I just don't think I'd use this board as sentiment when we have a guy who runs a blog that grades teachers involved in sex scandals picking stocks out of a scrabble bag. We can quibble about the money on the sidelines but I don't think it's as great as folks think given the hundreds of billions that companies have raised in capital markets and likely hundreds of billions of foreign money that was moved into $ for various reasons.
Hello shipping buddies like @sporthenry Did you notice that 11% dividend hit you account yesterday for FRO? Yes, that was for one quarter best I can tell.
