Stock Thread (29 Viewers)

[pecorino]

s?

No, I am too cheap to subscribe to Barron's and too busy to read anything. It's a sad state. But when I saw the chart this morning with two major legs down, it got me interested. Down even more in mid-day. I wish I knew more about the company to determine whether it should be bought. They sell frozen potatoes. How does that lose 40% in stock price in three months? Seems like it should be as boring and stable as, well, potatoes.

Perfect storm of Otezla and people sick of paying $20 for fast food lunches.

Nonetheless, the company is still turning a profit and trading at 5-year lows. I just bought three long term in-the-money calls. Maybe they'll do well enough that I'll be able to dine at McDonalds again in the future.

Just sold LW at $78 on a pop today. 40% gain in 3 months on fried extruded potato product. Either I love this country or what kind of world are we living in?

 

[pecorino]

Netflix having a very healthy premarket today.
I'm thinking this might be a good opportunity to sell calls.

eta: except they aint payin s*** for whatever reason

A sign the stock is going to come down based on crappy call premiums.

How far out and what strike are you looking at?

Indeed, if the premiums are low that could be a sign of weakness.

And, by the way, are you sitting on 100 shares of NFLX and selling one covered call? That seems unlikely. If you're selling a call to raise some premium and don't own the underlying, you would be wise to buy a much higher-priced call to protect yourself in case the thing goes parabolic. It's be a shame to net a few hundred dollars in premium then lose several thousand if the thing shoots to $1000 per share. Are you selling a call spread, is what I'm asking?

 

[stbugs]

There’s also just some craziness like MSTR.

I have some and just marvel what a beta of 3+ does. It's like a superball.

It’s literally stupid. BTC up 3% turns into MSTR up 12% even though when you buy MSTR you are paying a huge 2-3 times premium for BTC. Just makes no sense at all.

 

[Todem]

Netflix having a very healthy premarket today.
I'm thinking this might be a good opportunity to sell calls.

eta: except they aint payin s*** for whatever reason

A sign the stock is going to come down based on crappy call premiums.

How far out and what strike are you looking at?

Indeed, if the premiums are low that could be a sign of weakness.

And, by the way, are you sitting on 100 shares of NFLX and selling one covered call? That seems unlikely. If you're selling a call to raise some premium and don't own the underlying, you would be wise to buy a much higher-priced call to protect yourself in case the thing goes parabolic. It's be a shame to net a few hundred dollars in premium then lose several thousand if the thing shoots to $1000 per share. Are you selling a call spread, is what I'm asking?

Yeah you gotta be sitting on 100 shares at a minimum to cover it. Hence why I also suggested 25-30% out of the money.

 

[Bossman]

Netflix having a very healthy premarket today.
I'm thinking this might be a good opportunity to sell calls.

eta: except they aint payin s*** for whatever reason

A sign the stock is going to come down based on crappy call premiums.

How far out and what strike are you looking at?

Indeed, if the premiums are low that could be a sign of weakness.

And, by the way, are you sitting on 100 shares of NFLX and selling one covered call? That seems unlikely. If you're selling a call to raise some premium and don't own the underlying, you would be wise to buy a much higher-priced call to protect yourself in case the thing goes parabolic. It's be a shame to net a few hundred dollars in premium then lose several thousand if the thing shoots to $1000 per share. Are you selling a call spread, is what I'm asking?

Sold 1 covered call. Nov 15, $795 @ $10.20. I'd like to keep the stock but If it hits strike then I'm more than fine with that.
I looked further out, Dec / Jan, but the premiums were meh and I like having the option to sell it again (or 2 more times) by then ... if it doesn't hit strike.

 

[Todem]

Netflix having a very healthy premarket today.
I'm thinking this might be a good opportunity to sell calls.

eta: except they aint payin s*** for whatever reason

A sign the stock is going to come down based on crappy call premiums.

How far out and what strike are you looking at?

Indeed, if the premiums are low that could be a sign of weakness.

And, by the way, are you sitting on 100 shares of NFLX and selling one covered call? That seems unlikely. If you're selling a call to raise some premium and don't own the underlying, you would be wise to buy a much higher-priced call to protect yourself in case the thing goes parabolic. It's be a shame to net a few hundred dollars in premium then lose several thousand if the thing shoots to $1000 per share. Are you selling a call spread, is what I'm asking?

Sold 1 covered call. Nov 15, $795 @ $10.20. I'd like to keep the stock but If it hits strike then I'm more than fine with that.
I looked further out, Dec / Jan, but the premiums were meh and I like having the option to sell it again (or 2 more times) by then ... if it doesn't hit strike.

Odds are
You will be called out. Thats a tight spread.

I am assuming a massive gain here.

 

[Sand]

There’s also just some craziness like MSTR.

I have some and just marvel what a beta of 3+ does. It's like a superball.

And then Monday...

 

[pecorino]

Netflix having a very healthy premarket today.
I'm thinking this might be a good opportunity to sell calls.

eta: except they aint payin s*** for whatever reason

A sign the stock is going to come down based on crappy call premiums.

How far out and what strike are you looking at?

Indeed, if the premiums are low that could be a sign of weakness.

And, by the way, are you sitting on 100 shares of NFLX and selling one covered call? That seems unlikely. If you're selling a call to raise some premium and don't own the underlying, you would be wise to buy a much higher-priced call to protect yourself in case the thing goes parabolic. It's be a shame to net a few hundred dollars in premium then lose several thousand if the thing shoots to $1000 per share. Are you selling a call spread, is what I'm asking?

Sold 1 covered call. Nov 15, $795 @ $10.20. I'd like to keep the stock but If it hits strike then I'm more than fine with that.
I looked further out, Dec / Jan, but the premiums were meh and I like having the option to sell it again (or 2 more times) by then ... if it doesn't hit strike.

Odds are
You will be called out. Thats a tight spread.

I am assuming a massive gain here.

Ya, that's like just 3% out of the money. Kudos to you, sitting on 100 shares. I'll be over here in the baby pool.

 

[Bossman]

Netflix having a very healthy premarket today.
I'm thinking this might be a good opportunity to sell calls.

eta: except they aint payin s*** for whatever reason

A sign the stock is going to come down based on crappy call premiums.

How far out and what strike are you looking at?

Indeed, if the premiums are low that could be a sign of weakness.

And, by the way, are you sitting on 100 shares of NFLX and selling one covered call? That seems unlikely. If you're selling a call to raise some premium and don't own the underlying, you would be wise to buy a much higher-priced call to protect yourself in case the thing goes parabolic. It's be a shame to net a few hundred dollars in premium then lose several thousand if the thing shoots to $1000 per share. Are you selling a call spread, is what I'm asking?

Sold 1 covered call. Nov 15, $795 @ $10.20. I'd like to keep the stock but If it hits strike then I'm more than fine with that.
I looked further out, Dec / Jan, but the premiums were meh and I like having the option to sell it again (or 2 more times) by then ... if it doesn't hit strike.

Odds are
You will be called out. Thats a tight spread.

I am assuming a massive gain here.

Yes, massive gain. My cost avg is $345.
In my mind I'm looking to start converting some stocks to cash with the impending stock market crash looming.
Also getting closer to retirement and probably should lower risk.
Seems like a nice exit strategy to start selling calls instead of just selling shares now.
Also, I'd still be holding some shares so still a win if the stock rips these next 20 trading days.
Bottom line, I was willing to risk not gaining huge money in the event of a massive run ... for the guarantee of this $1020 (and +$30 per share if strike hits)
And yes, taxes. Pay now or pay later. I don't expect my tax bracket will be any different down the road.

 

[Bossman]

Somehow screwed up my order for selling a Dec 165 NVDA call yesterday, but it worked out as I sold a Dec 168 call this morning for 4.25, which is more than I would have gotten for the 165 call yesterday.

I'm sure I'll get burned eventually, but the NVDA options are so expensive that I've been having good results selling a well out of the money covered call when we get an upswing, and then selling a well out of the money uncovered put when we get a downswing.

Kinda tailed you on this yesterday.
Sold 2 covered calls NVDA 11/15 ... $148 strike
Paid me $4.60
I like your idea of cashing in on the overreaction of the market when days like yesterday and today happen.
The premium is already down, I'm betting it won't hit strike, and I'll just pocket the $920 premium.
If they get called, I'm ok with that for the reasons stated above. If not called, I'll probably do it again on the next bump up.

 

[Bossman]

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

 

[Todem]

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

There is the chance the stock does not get called away.

So it can back fire.

 

[pecorino]

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

I used to sell covered calls with the same mind set as you. I've heard it described as "picking up pennies". Consider, in your NFLX example. you've got roughly $75000 invested in the underlying yet the call is only netting you about $1000 which is just over 1%. That's not a lot of juice that you're squeezing out of all that money.

Anyway, I rarely sell covered calls anymore because it only takes one or two instances of getting slammed for thousands with a stock that tanks. If NFLX falls back towards your cost basis (let's even just say $600 per share), that is a $15000 loss which you're stuck with unless you buy back the call then sell the stock, often when it is too late.

My hunch is that, in the long run, I would have been just as well off selling the underlying stock as I would have selling the call. I've never crunched the numbers. But it can be very demoralizing to net some of those small gains two, three, four times--only to get slammed in the fifth instance where the stock gaps down and you're still holding. With NFLX, that is pretty unlikely, hence the light premium.

OTOH, while I have your attention, I have employed the opposite strategy to good effect: buying slightly out of the money or at-the-money calls on low beta stocks (often ones that pay a dividend) to gain leverage. I'm thinking of todem's pick of CVS. If it's trading at $50 and you buy 100 shares, that $5000 would have netted a nice gain over the past several months. However, if that money would have been used to buy at-the-money calls, you could have purchased 10 of those for $5000, having the effect of owning 1000 shares. I love that 10x leverage. The calls are markedly cheaper for low beta names like CVS. And if the stock pays a dividend, that really depresses the cost of options because it forces a stock to decline on the ex-div date. With smart timing, or with a long-term call, you can manage the wonkiness of dividends and use options to get great leverage. I'm arguing for a shift away from selling covered calls (just sell the underlying stock) and towards buying at-the-money, long term calls on stable names that you think are going to rise due to an upcoming catalyst or because they are underpriced. LW is a good recent example I pimped here two months ago.

 

[Todem]

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

I used to sell covered calls with the same mind set as you. I've heard it described as "picking up pennies". Consider, in your NFLX example. you've got roughly $75000 invested in the underlying yet the call is only netting you about $1000 which is just over 1%. That's not a lot of juice that you're squeezing out of all that money.

Anyway, I rarely sell covered calls anymore because it only takes one or two instances of getting slammed for thousands with a stock that tanks. If NFLX falls back towards your cost basis (let's even just say $600 per share), that is a $15000 loss which you're stuck with unless you buy back the call then sell the stock, often when it is too late.

My hunch is that, in the long run, I would have been just as well off selling the underlying stock as I would have selling the call. I've never crunched the numbers. But it can be very demoralizing to net some of those small gains two, three, four times--only to get slammed in the fifth instance where the stock gaps down and you're still holding. With NFLX, that is pretty unlikely, hence the light premium.

OTOH, while I have your attention, I have employed the opposite strategy to good effect: buying slightly out of the money or at-the-money calls on low beta stocks (often ones that pay a dividend) to gain leverage. I'm thinking of todem's pick of CVS. If it's trading at $50 and you buy 100 shares, that $5000 would have netted a nice gain over the past several months. However, if that money would have been used to buy at-the-money calls, you could have purchased 10 of those for $5000, having the effect of owning 1000 shares. I love that 10x leverage. The calls are markedly cheaper for low beta names like CVS. And if the stock pays a dividend, that really depresses the cost of options because it forces a stock to decline on the ex-div date. With smart timing, or with a long-term call, you can manage the wonkiness of dividends and use options to get great leverage. I'm arguing for a shift away from selling covered calls (just sell the underlying stock) and towards buying at-the-money, long term calls on stable names that you think are going to rise due to an upcoming catalyst or because they are underpriced. LW is a good recent example I pimped here two months ago.

I employ a covered call strategy for heavy hitters that typically are staying long on their stocks but I am creating up to a 1% yield enhancement on the entire portfolio and have rarely been called away. I typically write the calls going out 2-4 months and anywhere from 15%-35% out of the money.

The total intention is if we get called they are huge profit positions that are reaching our short term targets and we can live with that. The other side is we are still really long on them and we are creating huge value with a dividend enhancement strategy.

Case and example I sold a December 2024 expiration NFLX call 950 strike on 3000 shares and took on a 4.25 premium on it. This was back in very early September

I don’t see this being called away. If it is we banked a 250% gain. If not we took in a nice premium in and will write another after this one expires.

Keep in mind this is a Large Cap Core portfolio I run. It has worked really well for a decade and half now. Have I had some called away? Yes. But 95% of the time no.

Also I do this on highly profitable stocks that have really gone north of a minimum 35% gain and above.

That’s really all I do with covered call writing.

The premiums need to be right. And other factors play as far as where I feel the stock is going, market behavior and volatility etc.

 

[Sand]

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

I used to sell covered calls with the same mind set as you. I've heard it described as "picking up pennies". Consider, in your NFLX example. you've got roughly $75000 invested in the underlying yet the call is only netting you about $1000 which is just over 1%. That's not a lot of juice that you're squeezing out of all that money.

Anyway, I rarely sell covered calls anymore because it only takes one or two instances of getting slammed for thousands with a stock that tanks. If NFLX falls back towards your cost basis (let's even just say $600 per share), that is a $15000 loss which you're stuck with unless you buy back the call then sell the stock, often when it is too late.

My hunch is that, in the long run, I would have been just as well off selling the underlying stock as I would have selling the call. I've never crunched the numbers. But it can be very demoralizing to net some of those small gains two, three, four times--only to get slammed in the fifth instance where the stock gaps down and you're still holding. With NFLX, that is pretty unlikely, hence the light premium.

OTOH, while I have your attention, I have employed the opposite strategy to good effect: buying slightly out of the money or at-the-money calls on low beta stocks (often ones that pay a dividend) to gain leverage. I'm thinking of todem's pick of CVS. If it's trading at $50 and you buy 100 shares, that $5000 would have netted a nice gain over the past several months. However, if that money would have been used to buy at-the-money calls, you could have purchased 10 of those for $5000, having the effect of owning 1000 shares. I love that 10x leverage. The calls are markedly cheaper for low beta names like CVS. And if the stock pays a dividend, that really depresses the cost of options because it forces a stock to decline on the ex-div date. With smart timing, or with a long-term call, you can manage the wonkiness of dividends and use options to get great leverage. I'm arguing for a shift away from selling covered calls (just sell the underlying stock) and towards buying at-the-money, long term calls on stable names that you think are going to rise due to an upcoming catalyst or because they are underpriced. LW is a good recent example I pimped here two months ago.

I employ a covered call strategy for heavy hitters that typically are staying long on their stocks but I am creating up to a 1% yield enhancement on the entire portfolio and have rarely been called away. I typically write the calls going out 2-4 months and anywhere from 15%-35% out of the money.

The total intention is if we get called they are huge profit positions that are reaching our short term targets and we can live with that. The other side is we are still really long on them and we are creating huge value with a dividend enhancement strategy.

Case and example I sold a December 2024 expiration NFLX call 950 strike on 3000 shares and took on a 4.25 premium on it. This was back in very early September

I don’t see this being called away. If it is we banked a 250% gain. If not we took in a nice premium in and will write another after this one expires.

Keep in mind this is a Large Cap Core portfolio I run. It has worked really well for a decade and half now. Have I had some called away? Yes. But 95% of the time no.

Also I do this on highly profitable stocks that have really gone north of a minimum 35% gain and above.

That’s really all I do with covered call writing.

The premiums need to be right. And other factors play as far as where I feel the stock is going, market behavior and volatility etc.

What DTE and Delta do you typically aim for here?

 

[Todem]

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

The question that I have is, if someone is looking to trim / convert stocks to cash, why wouldn't they sell covered calls vs just selling the stock?
Seems you would be getting more $ if the stock hits strike ... and gaining free money (the premium) if it doesn't.

I used to sell covered calls with the same mind set as you. I've heard it described as "picking up pennies". Consider, in your NFLX example. you've got roughly $75000 invested in the underlying yet the call is only netting you about $1000 which is just over 1%. That's not a lot of juice that you're squeezing out of all that money.

Anyway, I rarely sell covered calls anymore because it only takes one or two instances of getting slammed for thousands with a stock that tanks. If NFLX falls back towards your cost basis (let's even just say $600 per share), that is a $15000 loss which you're stuck with unless you buy back the call then sell the stock, often when it is too late.

My hunch is that, in the long run, I would have been just as well off selling the underlying stock as I would have selling the call. I've never crunched the numbers. But it can be very demoralizing to net some of those small gains two, three, four times--only to get slammed in the fifth instance where the stock gaps down and you're still holding. With NFLX, that is pretty unlikely, hence the light premium.

OTOH, while I have your attention, I have employed the opposite strategy to good effect: buying slightly out of the money or at-the-money calls on low beta stocks (often ones that pay a dividend) to gain leverage. I'm thinking of todem's pick of CVS. If it's trading at $50 and you buy 100 shares, that $5000 would have netted a nice gain over the past several months. However, if that money would have been used to buy at-the-money calls, you could have purchased 10 of those for $5000, having the effect of owning 1000 shares. I love that 10x leverage. The calls are markedly cheaper for low beta names like CVS. And if the stock pays a dividend, that really depresses the cost of options because it forces a stock to decline on the ex-div date. With smart timing, or with a long-term call, you can manage the wonkiness of dividends and use options to get great leverage. I'm arguing for a shift away from selling covered calls (just sell the underlying stock) and towards buying at-the-money, long term calls on stable names that you think are going to rise due to an upcoming catalyst or because they are underpriced. LW is a good recent example I pimped here two months ago.

I employ a covered call strategy for heavy hitters that typically are staying long on their stocks but I am creating up to a 1% yield enhancement on the entire portfolio and have rarely been called away. I typically write the calls going out 2-4 months and anywhere from 15%-35% out of the money.

The total intention is if we get called they are huge profit positions that are reaching our short term targets and we can live with that. The other side is we are still really long on them and we are creating huge value with a dividend enhancement strategy.

Case and example I sold a December 2024 expiration NFLX call 950 strike on 3000 shares and took on a 4.25 premium on it. This was back in very early September

I don’t see this being called away. If it is we banked a 250% gain. If not we took in a nice premium in and will write another after this one expires.

Keep in mind this is a Large Cap Core portfolio I run. It has worked really well for a decade and half now. Have I had some called away? Yes. But 95% of the time no.

Also I do this on highly profitable stocks that have really gone north of a minimum 35% gain and above.

That’s really all I do with covered call writing.

The premiums need to be right. And other factors play as far as where I feel the stock is going, market behavior and volatility etc.

What DTE and Delta do you typically aim for here?

2-4 months expiration…..all depends on the premiums.

The ultimate goal is to expire worthless….but depending on the price of the option if I have an opportunity to roll out at 90-95% gain and reset another 2-4 months for another good premium I will.

 

[steelerfan1]

@Todem Any thoughts on Goldman Sachs returns report of the S&P for the next 10 years? Saying they are expecting the 13% average to be down to 3%...

 

[Todem]

@Todem Any thoughts on Goldman Sachs returns report of the S&P for the next 10 years? Saying they are expecting the 13% average to be down to 3%...

That is quite bold to make such a forward looking statement.

And what did they base that entire thesis on?

 

[steelerfan1]

@Todem Any thoughts on Goldman Sachs returns report of the S&P for the next 10 years? Saying they are expecting the 13% average to be down to 3%...

That is quite bold to make such a forward looking statement.

And what did they base that entire thesis on?

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

 

[McBokonon]

@Todem Any thoughts on Goldman Sachs returns report of the S&P for the next 10 years? Saying they are expecting the 13% average to be down to 3%...

That is quite bold to make such a forward looking statement.

And what did they base that entire thesis on?

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

I don’t have a comment on the methodology he used but will say:

- Often articles will say things like “Goldman Sachs predicts” or “Chase says” when it’s really just one analyst or team of analysts. It’s not necessarily what the entire institution thinks.

- They make a LOT of these predictions.

- This specific analyst said on March 26th the most likely scenario was the market would be flat rest of year. The S&P 500 is up about 20% since then.

So, yeah, I’d probably take any prediction with an entire salt mine - especially 10 years out.

 

[Sand]

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

If bonds keep exploding upwards as they have this month they have a good shot at that part of it.

 

[steelerfan1]

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

If bonds keep exploding upwards as they have this month they have a good shot at that part of it.

Any particular bonds that you're in that you care to mention that have been lighting it up? I'm only in BND and its only up .13 for the year, and actually down 2.5 for the month.

 

[Sand]

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

If bonds keep exploding upwards as they have this month they have a good shot at that part of it.

Any particular bonds that you're in that you care to mention that have been lighting it up? I'm only in BND and its only up .13 for the year, and actually down 2.5 for the month.

Look at the 10 year or 20 year. Rates are exploding upward (which means prices of IEF and TLT, etc. are diving right now). That's a good starting point for investing in bonds now looking forward (probably).

 

[Desert_Power]

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

If bonds keep exploding upwards as they have this month they have a good shot at that part of it.

Any particular bonds that you're in that you care to mention that have been lighting it up? I'm only in BND and its only up .13 for the year, and actually down 2.5 for the month.

Look at the 10 year or 20 year. Rates are exploding upward (which means prices of IEF and TLT, etc. are diving right now). That's a good starting point for investing in bonds now looking forward (probably).

Do you use IEF? Looking to get some exposure in an account where I cannot hold individual bonds. Have been looking at some ETFs today.

 

[Sand]

It's stuff that I don't understand, and was wondering what the pro thought. Not sure if it was a click bait type of article or not and wanted to see if you had heard anything of the like. They claimed more than likely bonds would be outpacing the S&P.

Artilce Link

If bonds keep exploding upwards as they have this month they have a good shot at that part of it.

Any particular bonds that you're in that you care to mention that have been lighting it up? I'm only in BND and its only up .13 for the year, and actually down 2.5 for the month.

Look at the 10 year or 20 year. Rates are exploding upward (which means prices of IEF and TLT, etc. are diving right now). That's a good starting point for investing in bonds now looking forward (probably).

Do you use IEF? Looking to get some exposure in an account where I cannot hold individual bonds. Have been looking at some ETFs today.

I use IEF and GVI as the main ETFs for treasuries. IEF is very liquid, so for medium term bonds it's a pretty low cost, low friction instrument to use. GVI a bit less liquid. I'd say TLT as well, but I've been out of that one for quite a while and and sticking to shorter maturities. If you wanted long bonds, though, that one is also very liquid.

 

[culdeus]

Fairly red few days.

Spent more time looking at waiver wr than worring about this thiug

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Fairly red few days.

Spent more time looking at waiver wr than worring about this thiug

Market is actually up 0.6% over the last 5 days. But that's how used to a crazy bull market we are that a little bit up feels like down.

 

[RG623]

Good time to get into UWMC?

 

[pecorino]

Not an expert here by any stretch. But just take a few data points that make me worried a recession is looming. 1) We've had relatively high rates for the better part of two years. Not historically high but substantially higher that the prior dozen years. The intention, obviously, is to apply brakes to the economy. 2) We have an upcoming national election that is looking more and more divisive and could lead to an uncertain outcome. The market does not like uncertainty. 3) We have on-going conflicts in the middle east and eastern Europe. 4) We have had slowly building tensions in China / Taiwan and the South Asia Sea. 5) The national debt looms like a 35 trillion pound beast. 6) Warren is sitting on a boatload of cash instead of investing it.

At least one of these things has a specific timeline (the election) and I don't suppose it would take more than one or two shocks to inspire a correction if not a recession. I've said it recently and keep coming back to the strategy of reducing exposure to equities, keeping a decent chunk in cash since money markets are still paying 5%, and holding more bonds than usual. GLTA. I am very worried.

 

[Sand]

Not an expert here by any stretch. But just take a few data points that make me worried a recession is looming. 1) We've had relatively high rates for the better part of two years. Not historically high but substantially higher that the prior dozen years. The intention, obviously, is to apply brakes to the economy. 2) We have an upcoming national election that is looking more and more divisive and could lead to an uncertain outcome. The market does not like uncertainty. 3) We have on-going conflicts in the middle east and eastern Europe. 4) We have had slowly building tensions in China / Taiwan and the South Asia Sea. 5) The national debt looms like a 35 trillion pound beast. 6) Warren is sitting on a boatload of cash instead of investing it.

At least one of these things has a specific timeline (the election) and I don't suppose it would take more than one or two shocks to inspire a correction if not a recession. I've said it recently and keep coming back to the strategy of reducing exposure to equities, keeping a decent chunk in cash since money markets are still paying 5%, and holding more bonds than usual. GLTA. I am very worried.

Of those I only really take note of 1 and 5. A recession is always looming. Until we see unemployment rate of change drive negative I'm not too worried.

 

[McBokonon]

$CLS earnings are beats, stock up around 7-8% after hours. Anyone ever heard of it?

 

[Bossman]

Not an expert here by any stretch. But just take a few data points that make me worried a recession is looming. 1) We've had relatively high rates for the better part of two years. Not historically high but substantially higher that the prior dozen years. The intention, obviously, is to apply brakes to the economy. 2) We have an upcoming national election that is looking more and more divisive and could lead to an uncertain outcome. The market does not like uncertainty. 3) We have on-going conflicts in the middle east and eastern Europe. 4) We have had slowly building tensions in China / Taiwan and the South Asia Sea. 5) The national debt looms like a 35 trillion pound beast. 6) Warren is sitting on a boatload of cash instead of investing it.

At least one of these things has a specific timeline (the election) and I don't suppose it would take more than one or two shocks to inspire a correction if not a recession. I've said it recently and keep coming back to the strategy of reducing exposure to equities, keeping a decent chunk in cash since money markets are still paying 5%, and holding more bonds than usual. GLTA. I am very worried.

Without getting political, do people here think that the election results effect the stock market? If so, which direction?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not an expert here by any stretch. But just take a few data points that make me worried a recession is looming. 1) We've had relatively high rates for the better part of two years. Not historically high but substantially higher that the prior dozen years. The intention, obviously, is to apply brakes to the economy. 2) We have an upcoming national election that is looking more and more divisive and could lead to an uncertain outcome. The market does not like uncertainty. 3) We have on-going conflicts in the middle east and eastern Europe. 4) We have had slowly building tensions in China / Taiwan and the South Asia Sea. 5) The national debt looms like a 35 trillion pound beast. 6) Warren is sitting on a boatload of cash instead of investing it.

At least one of these things has a specific timeline (the election) and I don't suppose it would take more than one or two shocks to inspire a correction if not a recession. I've said it recently and keep coming back to the strategy of reducing exposure to equities, keeping a decent chunk in cash since money markets are still paying 5%, and holding more bonds than usual. GLTA. I am very worried.

Without getting political, do people here think that the election results effect the stock market? If so, which direction?

Usually the market likes gridlock, so probably worst for the market would be if one side sweeps presidency/senate/house.

Outside of that I would think the differences will be minimal. Market doesn't seem to love the economic plan of either candidate (both have risks of re-triggering inflation a bit), so I think it's probably already priced in for the most part.

 

[Sand]

Not an expert here by any stretch. But just take a few data points that make me worried a recession is looming. 1) We've had relatively high rates for the better part of two years. Not historically high but substantially higher that the prior dozen years. The intention, obviously, is to apply brakes to the economy. 2) We have an upcoming national election that is looking more and more divisive and could lead to an uncertain outcome. The market does not like uncertainty. 3) We have on-going conflicts in the middle east and eastern Europe. 4) We have had slowly building tensions in China / Taiwan and the South Asia Sea. 5) The national debt looms like a 35 trillion pound beast. 6) Warren is sitting on a boatload of cash instead of investing it.

At least one of these things has a specific timeline (the election) and I don't suppose it would take more than one or two shocks to inspire a correction if not a recession. I've said it recently and keep coming back to the strategy of reducing exposure to equities, keeping a decent chunk in cash since money markets are still paying 5%, and holding more bonds than usual. GLTA. I am very worried.

Without getting political, do people here think that the election results effect the stock market? If so, which direction?

No, I don't. Both will deficit spend, so probably a wash. At least right now I'd say oil and interest rates are ruling the roost on sentiment.

$CLS earnings are beats, stock up around 7-8% after hours. Anyone ever heard of it?

Laugh emoji. But as I have some of that!

 

[Sideshow Bob]

$CLS earnings are beats, stock up around 7-8% after hours. Anyone ever heard of it?

Something something AI.

Nope. No recollection.

 

[General Malaise]

IMO, the AI boom and what's needed to power it is more important than the person in the Oval Office. There will be twists, turns, whipsaws, fear, fear of missing out, rate cuts, perhaps some panic but keeping the thing about the thing I *THINK* we are in the very early innings of a new future vis a vis AI. Things are percolating below the surface that are bigger than politics, bigger than geopolitical tensions and wars, bigger than inflation.

NVDA's market cap is bigger than all but 7 of the world's top economies. Read that again.

APPL, same story.

Sure, go into cash or bonds or go buy gold at $2,715/Oz if you like. Flock to safety while fixed income still offers you a reach around. I get it. World is an uncertain place right now.

Me? The markets will shrug the election off like a bad case of fleas when its ready to do so. Because we are on the brink of something really big in a global picture much bigger than the winner of our election or yet another war in a part of the world none of us were ever visiting to begin with.

Wish I had more cash to deploy to be honest.


Oh, and believe me on tin.

 

[Todem]

Not an expert here by any stretch. But just take a few data points that make me worried a recession is looming. 1) We've had relatively high rates for the better part of two years. Not historically high but substantially higher that the prior dozen years. The intention, obviously, is to apply brakes to the economy. 2) We have an upcoming national election that is looking more and more divisive and could lead to an uncertain outcome. The market does not like uncertainty. 3) We have on-going conflicts in the middle east and eastern Europe. 4) We have had slowly building tensions in China / Taiwan and the South Asia Sea. 5) The national debt looms like a 35 trillion pound beast. 6) Warren is sitting on a boatload of cash instead of investing it.

At least one of these things has a specific timeline (the election) and I don't suppose it would take more than one or two shocks to inspire a correction if not a recession. I've said it recently and keep coming back to the strategy of reducing exposure to equities, keeping a decent chunk in cash since money markets are still paying 5%, and holding more bonds than usual. GLTA. I am very worried.

Without getting political, do people here think that the election results effect the stock market? If so, which direction?

Nope…..

 

[culdeus]

IMO, the AI boom and what's needed to power it is more important than the person in the Oval Office. There will be twists, turns, whipsaws, fear, fear of missing out, rate cuts, perhaps some panic but keeping the thing about the thing I *THINK* we are in the very early innings of a new future vis a vis AI. Things are percolating below the surface that are bigger than politics, bigger than geopolitical tensions and wars, bigger than inflation.

NVDA's market cap is bigger than all but 7 of the world's top economies. Read that again.

APPL, same story.

Sure, go into cash or bonds or go buy gold at $2,715/Oz if you like. Flock to safety while fixed income still offers you a reach around. I get it. World is an uncertain place right now.

Me? The markets will shrug the election off like a bad case of fleas when its ready to do so. Because we are on the brink of something really big in a global picture much bigger than the winner of our election or yet another war in a part of the world none of us were ever visiting to begin with.

Wish I had more cash to deploy to be honest.


Oh, and believe me on tin.

A solid meme would be a periodic table of GM recommendations

 

[Sand]

This article is definitely tilted to the "rich are evil" side of things, but it's a very interesting look at how some folks are racking up tax loss harvesting credits by using a leveraged long-short strategy.

I wonder how much one needs to afford this at one if these places and if it can be replicated on a smaller scale for us little folks.

https://archive.md/ylaLf

 

[SFBayDuck]

There’s also just some craziness like MSTR.

I have some and just marvel what a beta of 3+ does. It's like a superball.

And another big day for MSTR, despite a drop going into the bell.

I'm really interested to see what happens to MSTR if BTC can break through this resistance in the low $70Ks. BTC has been consolidating since the high in March, this is about the sixth time it's tested those highs since then. Meanwhile MSTR just keeps going up and up, 306% compared to BTCs 66% YTD. Go back 12 months, and it's 529% v 104%! Is MSTR already pricing in BTC $100K? Part of me thinks it just could be, and if BTC fails to break out and actually pulls back we're going to see a huuuuge drop in MSTR.

All I do know for sure is that whatever happens it's going to be a bumpy ride!

 

[dino259]

How is GME? Got a holiday gift guide from them in the mail today.

 

[McBokonon]

How is GME? Got a holiday gift guide from them in the mail today.

$GME the stock and Gamestop the store are two entities completely detached from each other.

 

[arrow1]

How's CYDY lately?

 

[McBokonon]

$TMDX getting whacked because they missed analyst estimates. The company warned last quarter that this quarter would be lighter but the stock ran up anyway, as did analyst estimates. Probably a buying opportunity today or over the next couple weeks. Revenue up 64% YoY. Margins hit a little as they build out their fleet.

 

[McBokonon]

I've been looking for other cozy stocks like that and I do own Deere though it doesn't inspire the same level of affection from me. Curious if you've got others to add to the JPM-I-Love-You list.

I’ve only owned it for a little over a year, but $LDOS is turning into this for me. I was just reminded of this post as I went through security and saw that they were the manufacturer of the walkthrough xray thing. They are in defense but also healthcare. They make “stuff” but also higher margin software. Good growth, getting more and more government contracts. Might be your kind of company but there’s also some growth here.

ETA; And because I know you’ll look, make sure you look at the forward P/E vs. the trailing.

$LDOS, on the other hand, having a positive move on their earnings. Been a steady eddie.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

SOFI with a good earnings report and raised guidance...down 10%. I don't like where this is headed...

 

[Bossman]

How is GME? Got a holiday gift guide from them in the mail today.

there's rumor of a short squeeze. There was a guy in here a while ago that could tell you all about it.

 

[The General]

How we feeling about Google tonight? Then Apple, Microsoft in two days. Rocket ships to the moon?!!?

 

[McBokonon]

How we feeling about Google tonight? Then Apple, Microsoft in two days. Rocket ships to the moon?!!?

Don’t forget thread favorite - SNAP

 

[The General]

How we feeling about Google tonight? Then Apple, Microsoft in two days. Rocket ships to the moon?!!?

Don’t forget thread favorite - SNAP

Somehow I have avoided this one!