Stone Cold Lock of the Year (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

 

[NorrisB]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Well if Jeff says it's gotta be true, so for this back to WHO DEY (instead of the more recent Hoo Boy)



-QG

 

[BustedKnuckles]

''Stone Cold Lock of the Year''...............just a tad dramatic don`t ya think ?

by the way ...leave my avatar out of it(wink)

 

[NorrisB]

Who Dey! Who dey think gonna beat them bengals? Nobody!

 

[-OZ-]

Stone Cold Lock of the Year to be the worst played game this week?

 

[Raider Nation]

CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23

With that predicted final score, why not just play the over?

 

[DarabZarrabi]

the bengals arent exactly superstuds either...I hate betting on a game involving two crappy teams...ask the people that pegged the pats last week as the lock of the week how they felt about betting "their paycheck" while I just bet on the cowboys and have some sweet money for this weekend

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23

With that predicted final score, why not just play the over?

Bengals money line +180 (Bengals to win outright)

 

[AllVolUT]

I could see Ray and co. coming out pissed off b/c of the embarrassment. Whats the word on McAllister and Heap...?

 

[Da Guru]

I like it, I can`t see the Ravens scoring much. McNair is a shell of his former self and at least the Bengale should be able to outscore them.

The ravens offense is horrible!

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

In Baltimore, I don't think it's far fetched at all. Doing a pick 'em, I'd take the Ravens.

You state Balt can't stop anyone, and Cincy can? They just made that Bills offense look like a juggernaut. McN is next to useless against 90% of the NFL, but Cincy is one of those teams that will make enough boneheaded plays on defense to make him have adequate stats.

If I were doing a lock of the year, I'd probably want to do one with a good (or even average) team.

 

[OU#1]

This is worse than Kimmel's Upset Specials back in the day. CIN should be favored in this game considering the inept BAL offense and all the injuries on the BAL D. Like, duh?

Why not pick a real upset? Like MIA over BUF?

 

[BassNBrew]

Whats the word on Heap...?

FBG projects him for 4 and 40 all week and then he's a game day scratch.

 

[GreenNGold]

I hate to break it to you, but the :IBTL: of the millenium is this week. What is it you ask? Simple. It is Dallas -1 vs NYG.

I like your Cincinnatti pick, but do you really think the lock of the week is some 2-6 road team that has been extremely iffy all year long? I don't care if they are playing the Ravens (who I absolutely despise and would love to bet against). But, the bengals just aren't reliable and are certainly not a lock this week or any week. Apparently Palmer, CJ, and the rest of the Bengals still have the hype factor going for them though, I will give you that (but that does not usually mean a good bet).

I like Cincinnatti +4.5, but this is a bet I would pass on. Dallas is a much better :IBTL:

I normally don't do this, but I am flying to Vegas this weekend just so I can put as much money as possible on Romo and the 'Boys!!!

 

[Love to Bet football]

Tease the Bengals and Packers in a 7pt 2 team teaser

 

[Jous]

Why would anyone call this the "stone cold lock of the year"? I mean, I agree that Cincy wins this game but there are far better games to declare as the lock of the year. New England over Miami for instance.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Bengals on the road this year:

Loss 45-51

Loss 21-24

Loss 13-34

Loss 13-24

Loss 21-33

Total: 0-5 record, average score of 22.6-33.2

Ravens at home this year:

Win 20-13

Win 26-23

Win 22-3

Total: 3-0 record, average score of 22.66-13

Still confident?

 

[knowledge dropper]

The Bengals D vs. Ravens O is a truly classic matchup for all the wrong reasons.

 

[Phlash]

Why would anyone call this the "stone cold lock of the year"? I mean, I agree that Cincy wins this game but there are far better games to declare as the lock of the year. New England over Miami for instance.

Haven't you heard? Miami is going to punch New England in the mouth.

 

[jimmy b]

JEFF.......SHHHHHHH....Vegas called, You just moved the line with that prediction...

 

[Blackjacks]

I hate to break it to you, but the :IBTL: of the millenium is this week. What is it you ask? Simple. It is Dallas -1 vs NYG. I like your Cincinnatti pick, but do you really think the lock of the week is some 2-6 road team that has been extremely iffy all year long? I don't care if they are playing the Ravens (who I absolutely despise and would love to bet against). But, the bengals just aren't reliable and are certainly not a lock this week or any week. Apparently Palmer, CJ, and the rest of the Bengals still have the hype factor going for them though, I will give you that (but that does not usually mean a good bet).I like Cincinnatti +4.5, but this is a bet I would pass on. Dallas is a much better :IBTL:I normally don't do this, but I am flying to Vegas this weekend just so I can put as much money as possible on Romo and the 'Boys!!!

NY was on a bye last week. Never bet against a home dog coming off of a bye. I'll take the G-Men

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Bengals on the road this year:Loss 45-51Loss 21-24Loss 13-34Loss 13-24Loss 21-33Total: 0-5 record, average score of 22.6-33.2Ravens at home this year:Win 20-13Win 26-23Win 22-3Total: 3-0 record, average score of 22.66-13Still confident?

This game is about matchups. I really don't care about the prior outcomes.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The Bengals D vs. Ravens O is a truly classic matchup for all the wrong reasons.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

JEFF.......SHHHHHHH....Vegas called, You just moved the line with that prediction...

Well, the game did open with the Ravens favored by 5.5, and now it is just 4....

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I hate to break it to you, but the :IBTL: of the millenium is this week. What is it you ask? Simple. It is Dallas -1 vs NYG. I like your Cincinnatti pick, but do you really think the lock of the week is some 2-6 road team that has been extremely iffy all year long? I don't care if they are playing the Ravens (who I absolutely despise and would love to bet against). But, the bengals just aren't reliable and are certainly not a lock this week or any week. Apparently Palmer, CJ, and the rest of the Bengals still have the hype factor going for them though, I will give you that (but that does not usually mean a good bet).I like Cincinnatti +4.5, but this is a bet I would pass on. Dallas is a much better :IBTL: I normally don't do this, but I am flying to Vegas this weekend just so I can put as much money as possible on Romo and the 'Boys!!!

NY was on a bye last week. Never bet against a home dog coming off of a bye. I'll take the G-Men

Good point, and I do like Dallas to win, but I give the Giants a good shot here.They can throw the ball well, and that's the weakness of Dallas. With Plax, Shockey and Toomer all working with Eli, I think they can put up big numbers and try and keep pace with Dallas. They did put up a 35 number on them the first time, and the Giants' D is much better now. I still pick Dallas, but the chances of NY winning the game is at least 35%, if not 50/50 like a "-1" game would indicate. That's far from a lock.

 

[TheGreatest]

JEFF.......SHHHHHHH....Vegas called, You just moved the line with that prediction...

Well, the game did open with the Ravens favored by 5.5, and now it is just 4....

E. Reed status is surely affecting the line.....

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think Indy smakcing the Bolts around is a much bigger lock

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

Who's going to stop him? I wouldn't underestimate the Bengals' ability to underachieve. That team doesn't seem happy with Mavin Lewis (I mean the players). They aren't buying anymore and discipline isn't exactly a trademark of Cincinnati football. I can see how they'd beat the Ravens, but I can see the wheels coming off just as easily. I don't see any locks this weekend, but let's just say I wouldn't want the Rams in a survivor pool to beat the surging Saints in NO.

 

[Sheriff66]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

I agree and will smile when this happens...

 

[ceo3west]

I hate to break it to you, but the :IBTL: of the millenium is this week. What is it you ask? Simple. It is Dallas -1 vs NYG. I like your Cincinnatti pick, but do you really think the lock of the week is some 2-6 road team that has been extremely iffy all year long? I don't care if they are playing the Ravens (who I absolutely despise and would love to bet against). But, the bengals just aren't reliable and are certainly not a lock this week or any week. Apparently Palmer, CJ, and the rest of the Bengals still have the hype factor going for them though, I will give you that (but that does not usually mean a good bet).I like Cincinnatti +4.5, but this is a bet I would pass on. Dallas is a much better :IBTL:I normally don't do this, but I am flying to Vegas this weekend just so I can put as much money as possible on Romo and the 'Boys!!!

NY was on a bye last week. Never bet against a home dog coming off of a bye. I'll take the G-Men

Very

 

[Jene Bramel]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

You might be right.But...a few things worth considering before you bet the Inner Harbor on this one.

1. The Steelers almost immediately made the Ravens one-dimensional. That's highly unlikely to happen this week. The Bengals defense is built for turnovers, but in the games they've gotten them this season it's been offensive mistakes not defensive play.

2. The Steelers had the pass rushers and scheme to hurry McNair and abuse Ogden. The Bengals do not. In fact, they've neutralized their own best pass rusher on base defensive downs by moving Geathers to SLB.

3. The Bengals won't have a single LB playing in an appropriate position this week and they were already horrible at stopping the run.

4. The Bengals cannot defend a TE. With Heap likely back, it could be extremely ugly.

5. The Ravens have always had trouble defending the Bengals passing game with McAllister, Rolle and Reed. It really can't get much worse with Ivy et al. Since the Bengals rush offense has struggled against decent front sevens -- see the Bills last week who are nowhere near Raven caliber -- the Ravens should be able to play some of Ryan's patented zone silliness instead of blitzing a bunch as they've been doing. Keep an offense off schedule enough and there's plenty of stops to be had even with the mismatches in the passing game.

So...

The Bengal passing game is a matchup issue for the Ravens, but one that can be minimized by zone coverages, a better pass rush and the ability to keep the game one-dimensional. The Raven running game and TE are a matchup issue for the Bengals and one that the Bengals have no answer for, by personnel or gameplan.

Add in a significant special teams advantage for the Ravens and the home field, a Bengals team that hasn't won a close game since the first Raven game this season and has little to no character or confidence on the field and a healthy defensive front seven that is wholly pissed off about last week's "blowout" .........

Save your money.

 

[comfortably numb]

I hate to break it to you, but the :IBTL: of the millenium is this week. What is it you ask? Simple. It is Dallas -1 vs NYG. I like your Cincinnatti pick, but do you really think the lock of the week is some 2-6 road team that has been extremely iffy all year long? I don't care if they are playing the Ravens (who I absolutely despise and would love to bet against). But, the bengals just aren't reliable and are certainly not a lock this week or any week. Apparently Palmer, CJ, and the rest of the Bengals still have the hype factor going for them though, I will give you that (but that does not usually mean a good bet).I like Cincinnatti +4.5, but this is a bet I would pass on. Dallas is a much better :IBTL:I normally don't do this, but I am flying to Vegas this weekend just so I can put as much money as possible on Romo and the 'Boys!!!

NY was on a bye last week. Never bet against a home dog coming off of a bye. I'll take the G-Men

Very

Can someone get the NYG record coming off a BYE?I think it is 4-13 or something?

 

[Reaper]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :IBTL: of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

You might be right.But...a few things worth considering before you bet the Inner Harbor on this one.

1. The Steelers almost immediately made the Ravens one-dimensional. That's highly unlikely to happen this week. The Bengals defense is built for turnovers, but in the games they've gotten them this season it's been offensive mistakes not defensive play.

2. The Steelers had the pass rushers and scheme to hurry McNair and abuse Ogden. The Bengals do not. In fact, they've neutralized their own best pass rusher on base defensive downs by moving Geathers to SLB.

3. The Bengals won't have a single LB playing in an appropriate position this week and they were already horrible at stopping the run.

4. The Bengals cannot defend a TE. With Heap likely back, it could be extremely ugly.

5. The Ravens have always had trouble defending the Bengals passing game with McAllister, Rolle and Reed. It really can't get much worse with Ivy et al. Since the Bengals rush offense has struggled against decent front sevens -- see the Bills last week who are nowhere near Raven caliber -- the Ravens should be able to play some of Ryan's patented zone silliness instead of blitzing a bunch as they've been doing. Keep an offense off schedule enough and there's plenty of stops to be had even with the mismatches in the passing game.

So...

The Bengal passing game is a matchup issue for the Ravens, but one that can be minimized by zone coverages, a better pass rush and the ability to keep the game one-dimensional. The Raven running game and TE are a matchup issue for the Bengals and one that the Bengals have no answer for, by personnel or gameplan.

Add in a significant special teams advantage for the Ravens and the home field, a Bengals team that hasn't won a close game since the first Raven game this season and has little to no character or confidence on the field and a healthy defensive front seven that is wholly pissed off about last week's "blowout" .........

Save your money.

A lot of what I was thinking..... I can see where Jeff is coming from but, getting all excited about a Stone Called Lock is WAY overboard.

 

[The_Man]

As a fellow Baltimore homer, I couldn't agree with Jeff more.

The Bengals own the Ravens under any circumstance (having won 5 of the last 6 meetings) and with Rolle out and McAlister banged up (and maybe out), Cincy will pass at will vs. the Ravens.

This reminds me of the second Cincy-Baltimore matchup in 2005, when Rolle and McAlister were hurting, and Reed and Demps were out, and the Bengals jumped out to a 34-0 lead.

The Ravens are usually very tough at home, and teams coming off Monday Night losses are a good bet, but the Bengals just own the Ravens, particularly with the Ravens likely to be defenseless vs. the pass.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Who Dey! Who dey think gonna beat them bengals? Nobody!

Well, either nobody or 75% of the teams they've played, one or the other.

 

[Jene Bramel]

This reminds me of the second Cincy-Baltimore matchup in 2005, when Rolle and McAlister were hurting, and Reed and Demps were out, and the Bengals jumped out to a 34-0 lead.

A few differences I can see here...Confident 7-3 Bengal team playing at Paul Brown Stadium.The Bengals were playing with a healthy Levi Jones, Eric Steinbach, Willie Anderson, Rudi Johnson, Odell Thurman, Brian Simmons, Deltha O'Neal (Pro Bowl year).The Ravens didn't have Ed Reed, Ray Lewis or Trevor Pryce (yet). They did have Demps and AThomas. I'd argue that Lewis and Pryce are more important to this team than Reed in this matchup. Given the way Reed plays against the Bengal passing offense, you're almost better off not having him back there.I think some are over-estimating how favorable the Bengal passing matchup may be. Chris Henry is a nice lift and the WRs are far better than the backup Raven corners. But the Bengal offense has been out of sync all year long. The Bengals have struggled against good front sevens all year long -- PIT, NE, BAL. They've struggled against average front sevens with average corners -- NYJ and BUF and KC.I think this game is close.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :IBTL: of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

You might be right.But...a few things worth considering before you bet the Inner Harbor on this one.

1. The Steelers almost immediately made the Ravens one-dimensional. That's highly unlikely to happen this week. The Bengals defense is built for turnovers, but in the games they've gotten them this season it's been offensive mistakes not defensive play.

2. The Steelers had the pass rushers and scheme to hurry McNair and abuse Ogden. The Bengals do not. In fact, they've neutralized their own best pass rusher on base defensive downs by moving Geathers to SLB.

3. The Bengals won't have a single LB playing in an appropriate position this week and they were already horrible at stopping the run.

4. The Bengals cannot defend a TE. With Heap likely back, it could be extremely ugly.

5. The Ravens have always had trouble defending the Bengals passing game with McAllister, Rolle and Reed. It really can't get much worse with Ivy et al. Since the Bengals rush offense has struggled against decent front sevens -- see the Bills last week who are nowhere near Raven caliber -- the Ravens should be able to play some of Ryan's patented zone silliness instead of blitzing a bunch as they've been doing. Keep an offense off schedule enough and there's plenty of stops to be had even with the mismatches in the passing game.

So...

The Bengal passing game is a matchup issue for the Ravens, but one that can be minimized by zone coverages, a better pass rush and the ability to keep the game one-dimensional. The Raven running game and TE are a matchup issue for the Bengals and one that the Bengals have no answer for, by personnel or gameplan.

Add in a significant special teams advantage for the Ravens and the home field, a Bengals team that hasn't won a close game since the first Raven game this season and has little to no character or confidence on the field and a healthy defensive front seven that is wholly pissed off about last week's "blowout" .........

Save your money.

A lot of what I was thinking..... I can see where Jeff is coming from but, getting all excited about a Stone Called Lock is WAY overboard.

Sorry Jene, I usually am in agreement with you, but I have to think this is somewhat tainted by your proximity to the Bengals. While I don't disagree with your statement too much, especially on defense, the question here is what will they have to defend?Heap is coming back, but he's not 100%. Baltimore cannot throw beyond 10 yards with McN. McGahee will do fine, as I said earlier, but I cannot see any way possible where the Ravens score more than 24 points. I think Cincy can have that many by the half.

I am looking as objectively as I can here, but here is the simple breakdown.....

Cincy Pass Offense vs. Baltimore Pass D - Major Advantage Bengals

Cincy Run Offense vs. Baltimore Run D - Major Advantage Ravens

Ravens Run Offense vs. Cincy Run D - Advantage Ravens

Ravens Pass Offense vs. Cincy Pass D - Advantage Bengals / "Push"

I also note that Justin Smith returns, correct? That has to be an advantage to the Bengals as well.

Cincy will outscore Baltimore, simple as that. Not a ringing endorsement of either defense (although I think Joseph or Madieu Williams can get a Pick 6), but the call stands here with the Bengals. I don't see how Baltimore can win, let alone cover by 4-5.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

after watching the Bills play and beat both these teams in the past few weeks, I'd be pretty scared to call either team a lock.

 

[Sinrman]

I say Cinncy wins, not because of their offense, but because Baltimore's offense is one of the worst i've ever seen. McNair is done. Stick a fork in him...

Cinncy's defense is terrible, but I think they can get enough turnovers and disrupt McNair enough to where they will win.

I'm thinking...

Cinncy 34

Baltimore 20

 

[Jene Bramel]

Sorry Jene, I usually am in agreement with you, but I have to think this is somewhat tainted by your proximity to the Bengals. While I don't disagree with your statement too much, especially on defense, the question here is what will they have to defend? Heap is coming back, but he's not 100%. Baltimore cannot throw beyond 10 yards with McN. McGahee will do fine, as I said earlier, but I cannot see any way possible where the Ravens score more than 24 points. I think Cincy can have that many by the half. I am looking as objectively as I can here, but here is the simple breakdown..... Cincy Pass Offense vs. Baltimore Pass D - Major Advantage BengalsCincy Run Offense vs. Baltimore Run D - Major Advantage Ravens Ravens Run Offense vs. Cincy Run D - Advantage RavensRavens Pass Offense vs. Cincy Pass D - Advantage Bengals / "Push"I also note that Justin Smith returns, correct? That has to be an advantage to the Bengals as well.Cincy will outscore Baltimore, simple as that. Not a ringing endorsement of either defense (although I think Joseph or Madieu Williams can get a Pick 6), but the call stands here with the Bengals. I don't see how Baltimore can win, let alone cover by 4-5.

I wish my view of the Bengals was tainted by proximity. I don't disagree with your unit breakdown, although I think considering full unit matchups is a little flawed. Still, if you call the Raven Pass vs Cincy Pass D a wash, it appears the Ravens have the advantage above. Add the home field and ST advantage for the Ravens and the only thing the Bengals have going for them is a matchup advantage against the Raven corners.Baltimore can win by controlling the clock by giving the ball to McGahee often and mixing in short passes to Heap and Mason, who won't be covered closely by anyone. Baltimore can win by stopping the run consistently (which they will) to put the Bengal offense off schedule frequently and using a higher mix of Ryan's zone coverage packages than they have earlier in the season.Justin Smith hasn't missed a game. Ogden will struggle with an edge rusher, but that's not Smith. There's no significant advantage there.Nice discussion here. You've made me interested in watching a game that I didn't have much interest in yesterday. The game may in fact go very similar to the BAL-CLE game in Week 4, but I think there's a very valid argument that "stone cold lock" and "don't see how Baltimore can win" is extreme.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Unfortunately Jeff, the Bengals couldn't stop a cripple from running thru their defense so McGahee is going to have a great week, and he will help the Ravens control the game. I am not saying Cinci has no shot but they are not a lock by any stretch...so many other games to look at this week.

 

[Lash]

I could see Ray and co. coming out pissed off b/c of the embarrassment

well if they play a entire half in base def instead of nickel/dime with PIT throwing the ball all over the field, then i have to question the coachingseems like after the game they were more impressed by keeping FWP under 2 yds/carry than they were getting lit up like the 4th of July night

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

where did Justin Smith go that he's returning from?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Ogden will struggle with an edge rusher, but that's not Smith. There's no significant advantage there.

Normally I'd agree with you, but Smith has good speed (I watched the guy not allow Santonio Holmes the corner on a reverse 2 weeks ago and kee a play that would have gone 15 yards to a 4-yard gain) and Ogden looked like a turnstile on Monday night.

 

[towney]

Are you willing to bet your survivor pool pick on this?

 

[The_Man]

Big Ben had 5 TD passes in the rain vs. Baltimore last week. Housh and CJ have torched Baltimore, even when the Ravens DBs were healthy. I think Marvin really understands how to exploit his former team's weaknesses. There is no way the Ravens hold Cincy under 28 points, and no way they score more than 20.

If Ravens get behind early, particularly if the offense stinks, the home crowd will turn ugly.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Ogden will struggle with an edge rusher, but that's not Smith. There's no significant advantage there.

Normally I'd agree with you, but Smith has good speed (I watched the guy not allow Santonio Holmes the corner on a reverse 2 weeks ago and kee a play that would have gone 15 yards to a 4-yard gain) and Ogden looked like a turnstile on Monday night.

It might look like a fine line to draw, but Smith's straight line speed has not translated to edge rushing skill at any point in his career. He has great lateral and pursuit speed, but has never consistently gotten off the ball quickly, shown a good push and lean or an awareness of the shortest line to the pocket.Smith does his best work when he can work leverage against an average OT (see his mulitple explosions against KC over the past two seasons) or against the Steelers. He plays better against Pittsburgh than any other team. No question that Ogden was a turnstile against Harrison and Co. but I think there's a big difference between aligning away from the tackle in a two point stance and in a 5-tech 3 point stance. Ogden struggled with the toe injury in the first half of the opening game in Cincinnati and didn't have much trouble against Smith. If Ogden can consistently get his hands on Smith, I don't think he'll have too much difficulty keeping him away from McNair. If he can't, he'll probably be benched.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

where did Justin Smith go that he's returning from?

Brain cramp. Confused him with Aaron Smith (PIT) for a moment.

 

[NorrisB]

Hey Jeff what do you think of the Lions +1 this week? Or the Cowboys?