Strategy for Attacking QB premium leagues (1 Viewer)

[jeaton6]

Interested in different folks' perspective on best way to go about attacking the draft in leagues where QBs score significantly more than normal.

For discussions sake lets say twice as much as normal in a standard 4 point per pass TD, PPR league.

Obviously QBs value much higher on a relative basis than other positions even given PPR but how much earlier do you go QB than normal? Is value similar to Superflex/2 QB leagues where I regularly see first round littered with elite QBs and 2nd/3rd with 2nd/3rd tier guys?

Part of the Superflex/ 2 QB appeal of going early is the relative shortage of QBs given the ability to start 2 QBs who generally score more. In this case there won't likely be as significant a shortage because you can only start one but they score so much more than normal that I'm assuming the elite young guys are worth a kings ransom and probably would garner 1st round consideration.

What strategies have you seen in these types of leagues and any general thoughts on success?

 

[karmarooster]

Interested in different folks' perspective on best way to go about attacking the draft in leagues where QBs score significantly more than normal.

For discussions sake lets say twice as much as normal in a standard 4 point per pass TD, PPR league.

Obviously QBs value much higher on a relative basis than other positions even given PPR but how much earlier do you go QB than normal? Is value similar to Superflex/2 QB leagues where I regularly see first round littered with elite QBs and 2nd/3rd with 2nd/3rd tier guys?

Part of the Superflex/ 2 QB appeal of going early is the relative shortage of QBs given the ability to start 2 QBs who generally score more. In this case there won't likely be as significant a shortage because you can only start one but they score so much more than normal that I'm assuming the elite young guys are worth a kings ransom and probably would garner 1st round consideration.

What strategies have you seen in these types of leagues and any general thoughts on success?

Even with 8 point passing TDs, if that's what you're saying for discussion's sake, no I wouldn't expect them to go as high as in 2 QB leagues. Inflated passing TDs is a bump, but it doesn't affect positional scarcity as in a 2QB or Superflex league.

If you're saying 8 points for passing TDs, it also increases the value of traditional passing QBs as compared to rushing QBs. E.g. Cam, Kaep etc. get a large bump in rankings due to the fact that 5-10 of their TDs are worth 50% more than passing TDs (assuming 6 for rushing, 4 for passing). If you're doubling passing yardage as well (e.g. 1 point per 10 yards passing), same effect in that their rushing yards are worth less comparatively.

With double QB scoring (but not starting 2 QBs) I would bump the traditional passers about a round, whereas in 2 QB leagues they go straight to the first round. I would aim for a stud in the Rodgers/Manning/Brees category, but also consider some more value plays in Stafford, Luck, Ryan, and Foles, while discounting Cam/RG3/Kaep/Wilson. Also some major values in Cutler, Romo, potentially Rivers, and Ben.

In short, recognize how this scoring affects the QB rankings within the position, but don't go too crazy bumping them against other positions with greater scarcity due to starting 2-3 RBs and 3-4 WRs per week.

 

[Run It Up]

With double QB scoring (but not starting 2 QBs) I would bump the traditional passers about a round, whereas in 2 QB leagues they go straight to the first round. I would aim for a stud in the Rodgers/Manning/Brees category, but also consider some more value plays in Stafford, Luck, Ryan, and Foles, while discounting Cam/RG3/Kaep/Wilson. Also some major values in Cutler, Romo, potentially Rivers, and Ben.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[ZWK]

The top few QBs (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) become a lot more valuable. Other QBs become somewhat more valuable, but not as much. Basically, you can look at QB VBD for a standard league and double it.

It's similar to standard leagues (rather than 2QB or superflex leagues) in that elite QBs are worth a lot more than solid QBs. So a few years of an aging elite QB might be worth more than the full career of a solid QB, and after the top few QBs are gone you want to go for upside.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Seems fairly straightforward to me ... as it's still a 1-QB league, positional scarcity won't really come into play, so your draft list should be revised solely based on the additional expected VBD.

If you throw out Manning's outlier of a 2013, in general in a 4-pt league you'll see 2-3 QBs put up about 100 VBD, another group of 3-4 in the 30-50 range, and then decreasing from there down to replacement-starter level. Since your baseline QB will put up 2x the points in this new system too, you'd simply double these VBD expectations to come up with ~200 from the elite QBs, 60-100 from the tier 2 guys, and 4-5 guys delivering anywhere from 20-70.

By way of comparison, in PPR last year, Charles put up 216 VBD and McCoy 166 at RB, Graham 162 VBD at TE, and Gordon/DT/Megatron about 150 VBD at WR (assuming a start-3 lineup).

So Manning / A-Rod / Brees should (and certainly will) go in the top half of the 1st, but after that, is there really another 1st-round value at QB? Who's least likely to put up 100 VBD next season, even under this system: a 2nd-tier QB like Stafford, a 2nd-tier RB like Lacy / Lynch, or a stud WR like the three above? My vote would actually probably be Stafford. Guys in his tier should probably go from being 4th- and 5th-round values to 2nd- through 4th-rounders, but no higher than that.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the QB2s of the world shouldn't really get their value bumped at all - zero VBD doubled is still zero. Yet my guess is you'll probably see the guys in the Big Ben / Romo / RG3 range going a couple rounds ahead of where they should. I'd try to position myself to take advantage of that by grabbing value at the other three positions even though it will probably mean settling for a low-end QB2.

 

[jeaton6]

It's actually 6 per TD plus 1 point per 10 yards passing so a 4,000 and. 25 TD guy in 4 pt TD league and 1 per 20 scores 300 in this league he scores 550.

 

[eNdblu]

It's actually 6 per TD plus 1 point per 10 yards passing so a 4,000 and. 25 TD guy in 4 pt TD league and 1 per 20 scores 300 in this league he scores 550.

Sounds like you should take a look at the FBG Draft Dominator w/ last season's data and see how it would've ranked everyone based on the league scoring.

I agree with everyone else. Since it's still just a 1QB league, scoring is all relative within the position. This scoring would downgrade the elite running QBs and be a major boost to the elite pocket QBs. I wouldn't reach for a QB by any means because you'd still only be starting 1 every single week.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Excellent topic. Stuff like this is the foundation of Value Based Drafting.

One way to think about that is helpful for me sometimes is thinking of extreme examples. What if QB TD's were worth 50 points?

What if you had to start 6 WRs?

What if RB receiving TDs were worth 50 points?

Those kind of crazy examples "stress the model" and are helpful in thinking things through.

Good stuff to chew on in the "offseason".

J

 

[jeaton6]

Thanks Everyone. I agree need to take a closer look at VBD. One thought I had though is can one create significant team value via a draft to trade approach in a league like this where a position has such a significant scoring differential not only versus the norm but versus other positions? I get numbers 18-32 QBs don't have huge difference in VBD but since you only have 32 QB starters (and you've got a deep bench league of 25 roster spots) and they score so much every single starting QB is likely to be rostered vs a traditonal redraft where you likely have 12 starting QBs at any time on the WW and they are more of a commodity? Seems to me that taking a 3rd or 4th starting QB could be more valuable an asset (whether it's truly valuable or just perceived as such by the league) than taking a flier at RB or WR 4/5 especially once QB injuries occur.

 

[FUBAR]

With double QB scoring (but not starting 2 QBs) I would bump the traditional passers about a round, whereas in 2 QB leagues they go straight to the first round. I would aim for a stud in the Rodgers/Manning/Brees category, but also consider some more value plays in Stafford, Luck, Ryan, and Foles, while discounting Cam/RG3/Kaep/Wilson. Also some major values in Cutler, Romo, potentially Rivers, and Ben.

My thoughts exactly.

Pretty much nailed it.

Lineups are more important than scoring system.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Thanks Everyone. I agree need to take a closer look at VBD. One thought I had though is can one create significant team value via a draft to trade approach in a league like this where a position has such a significant scoring differential not only versus the norm but versus other positions? I get numbers 18-32 QBs don't have huge difference in VBD but since you only have 32 QB starters (and you've got a deep bench league of 25 roster spots) and they score so much every single starting QB is likely to be rostered vs a traditonal redraft where you likely have 12 starting QBs at any time on the WW and they are more of a commodity? Seems to me that taking a 3rd or 4th starting QB could be more valuable an asset (whether it's truly valuable or just perceived as such by the league) than taking a flier at RB or WR 4/5 especially once QB injuries occur.

In a league with 25 roster spots, I'm usually rostering 3 QBs anyway, even in a traditional scoring system. Injuries do happen, and QB is the one position where you always need to have a starter if you don't want a zero.

I still don't think this means you need to reach for your backup QBs, though. Whether it's Big Ben or McCown, he's still just an insurance policy, and the median QB1 last year started all 16 games at QB. No way I'm spending a 4th- or 5th-round price tag insuring against that.