Strategy in postseason FF contests (1 Viewer)

[Tiger Fan]

I'm talking about the ones where you pick a lineup and it is frozen. Basically, if you have Carson Palmer, and the Bengals lose....you have no points at QB for the rest of the playoffs.What is the strategy here? First off, do you want to pick players from teams who play in the first week but have a chance to go all the way. If so, I like the Bengals/Patriots in the AFC. NFC is more of a crapshooot.Secondly, you wouldn't want to pick 2 players who play for opposing teams in week 1, right? That way, you are only guaranteed 1 of those players to play the extra game.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

To win in the bigger competitions, you have to pick some riskier picks to actually win, cause you aren't going to win by picking all the same picks as everyone else (i.e. Manning, Aelxander, etc.)One way to do this is to load up on a good darkhorse team and cheer for them to go to the Super Bowl.

 

[Tiger Fan]

To win in the bigger competitions, you have to pick some riskier picks to actually win, cause you aren't going to win by picking all the same picks as everyone else (i.e. Manning, Aelxander, etc.)

One way to do this is to load up on a good darkhorse team and cheer for them to go to the Super Bowl.

Good point.....I guess I should have clarified that in my initial post. If we're talking something local (i.e. 20 or so entries)

 

[Rounders]

Anyone using projections and loading them into the DD for their drafts?

 

[glumpy]

Anyone using projections and loading them into the DD for their drafts?

I pretty much did that in my local draft but it's pretty tough to follow. To begin with those projections rely entirely on the game matchups/projections so there's a lot of room for error, and then when you go into the draft you'll find everyone loading up on 1. Indy/Seattle players and 2. QB's--so there's a measure of CYA to consider, and your draft slot becomes huge. In this past one I pulled the #3 spot which was great--took Hass in round one and still had Tiki and then Rudi left through the next two. In the upcoming office pool we won't know where we pick until just before (Friday's) draft. I'm thinking if picking later to lock onto a couple darkhorses like ff suggested and just enjoy the games!

 

[warrior69]

I am thinking of drafting all my players from 1 confrence(nfc or afc). I usually mix it up(between the afc and nfc) and grab name players but problem is your 1 and done so i figure if everyone is from the nfc on my yeam im guarentied to have people going all the way to the SB.

 

[Rounders]

I am thinking of drafting all my players from 1 confrence(nfc or afc). I usually mix it up(between the afc and nfc) and grab name players but problem is your 1 and done so i figure if everyone is from the nfc on my yeam im guarentied to have people going all the way to the SB.

That's a good strategy, it worked for me two years ago, took home the championship, but then I fell my face last year doing the same thing.My league has been doing this for 5 years now, and I have noticed that a balanced lineup tends to compete, then you just need to get lucky with your late draft picks.

When OAK/TB met in the SB, I drafted Jerry Porter, in the 5th round (out of 9 rounds, 10 teams) and he had 3 TD's in his first 2 games, golden! That's the kind of luck needed.

 

[AB in DC]

I'm trying something similar in the FBG/Huddle contest. Each position will have either all AFC players or all NFC players -- that way I am almost guaranteed to have enough players to fill the lineup for the conference championship and very likely to have at least one at each position for the Super Bowl. I think the key is to remember that there are four weeks and eleven games -- don't worry so much about the Super Bowl if that will weaken you in the other three weeks/ten games.

 

[valhallan]

First I determined how many games each team would play. For instance, I think Washington will beat Tampa and lose to Seattle, so I'm giving them a 2. Also, I think Carolina and New York is a toss up, but the winner will lose to Chicago, so I'm giving each of them a 1.5. Then I figured out every player's PPG this year using the playoff scoring system and multiplied that figure by my projected games played. That should give you a rough estimate of how your players will perform, though you could get more in-depth by applying some match-up factors. I tend to think the overall PPG takes that into account already, but to each his own.I threw some VBD numbers on the guys, but if you're in a league where you have to take a player from each NFL team, you may need some VBD numbers based on their team. For example, I'm doing a league with only 3 other guys and we have to pick 3 QB, 3 RB, and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, each from a different NFL team. So, I know there will be 4 and no more than 4 players taken from each team. After using standard VBD in the first few rounds, I could see the team VBD coming into play later in the draft. Haven't quite analyzed that yet, but I may later today.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I took a similar, yet different tack. I loaded up on Colts and Seahawks to comprise half of my team, as history dictates that at least one of those two teams, as a #1 seed, will make the Super Bowl. This guarantees that I have at least a partial lineup to play in the final week, rather than loading up on a darkhorse team only to see them go down in the first week and take 0s the rest of the way.Then, I filled in the rest with only players from teams that are playing this weekend. Since neither Indy nor Seattle are playing this weekend, this ensures I have a full lineup to play this weekend. Whenever possible, I chose players at the same position from teams that are playing each other (e.g. Tiki and D. Foster or C. Johnson and Ward) - thus guaranteeing that I will have at minimum 3 WRs and 3 RBs to choose from next week, in case of injuries.I feel this maximizes my ability to field as close to a full lineup as possible each week of the playoffs, as well as allowing me to grab "name players" rather than sleepers.

 

[Genester]

First I determined how many games each team would play. For instance, I think Washington will beat Tampa and lose to Seattle, so I'm giving them a 2. Also, I think Carolina and New York is a toss up, but the winner will lose to Chicago, so I'm giving each of them a 1.5. Then I figured out every player's PPG this year using the playoff scoring system and multiplied that figure by my projected games played. That should give you a rough estimate of how your players will perform, though you could get more in-depth by applying some match-up factors. I tend to think the overall PPG takes that into account already, but to each his own.

I threw some VBD numbers on the guys, but if you're in a league where you have to take a player from each NFL team, you may need some VBD numbers based on their team. For example, I'm doing a league with only 3 other guys and we have to pick 3 QB, 3 RB, and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, each from a different NFL team. So, I know there will be 4 and no more than 4 players taken from each team. After using standard VBD in the first few rounds, I could see the team VBD coming into play later in the draft. Haven't quite analyzed that yet, but I may later today.

I've used this approach for 4 years with disastrous results. Either I have really bad luck, or I am really bad at estimating who wins, or this doesn't work. I think this really depends on the paramters of your competition. Typically, in a winner take all scenario, balanced line-up is just not good enough - you'll compete, but not win. You need a few long shots or opportunistic players to come through... These tend to be WRs in the mold of Santana Moss or Galloway or Steve Smith who luck out into a few games and perform huge in those... Of course, picking a QB like C-Pep last year works too ;-)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

First I determined how many games each team would play.  For instance, I think Washington will beat Tampa and lose to Seattle, so I'm giving them a 2.  Also, I think Carolina and New York is a toss up, but the winner will lose to Chicago, so I'm giving each of them a 1.5.  Then I figured out every player's PPG this year using the playoff scoring system and multiplied that figure by my projected games played.  That should give you a rough estimate of how your players will perform, though you could get more in-depth by applying some match-up factors.  I tend to think the overall PPG takes that into account already, but to each his own.

I threw some VBD numbers on the guys, but if you're in a league where you have to take a player from each NFL team, you may need some VBD numbers based on their team.  For example, I'm doing a league with only 3 other guys and we have to pick 3 QB, 3 RB, and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, each from a different NFL team.  So, I know there will be 4 and no more than 4 players taken from each team.  After using standard VBD in the first few rounds, I could see the team VBD coming into play later in the draft.  Haven't quite analyzed that yet, but I may later today.

I've used this approach for 4 years with disastrous results. Either I have really bad luck, or I am really bad at estimating who wins, or this doesn't work. I think this really depends on the paramters of your competition. Typically, in a winner take all scenario, balanced line-up is just not good enough - you'll compete, but not win. You need a few long shots or opportunistic players to come through... These tend to be WRs in the mold of Santana Moss or Galloway or Steve Smith who luck out into a few games and perform huge in those... Of course, picking a QB like C-Pep last year works too ;-)

With all the surprises in the NFL playoffs due to parity, it's just too damn hard to project who is going to be around and who isn't. The system I designed above relies less on handicapping acumen than it does on math and history, which, at least in my case, are FAR more reliable.

 

[valhallan]

First I determined how many games each team would play. For instance, I think Washington will beat Tampa and lose to Seattle, so I'm giving them a 2. Also, I think Carolina and New York is a toss up, but the winner will lose to Chicago, so I'm giving each of them a 1.5. Then I figured out every player's PPG this year using the playoff scoring system and multiplied that figure by my projected games played. That should give you a rough estimate of how your players will perform, though you could get more in-depth by applying some match-up factors. I tend to think the overall PPG takes that into account already, but to each his own.

I threw some VBD numbers on the guys, but if you're in a league where you have to take a player from each NFL team, you may need some VBD numbers based on their team. For example, I'm doing a league with only 3 other guys and we have to pick 3 QB, 3 RB, and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, each from a different NFL team. So, I know there will be 4 and no more than 4 players taken from each team. After using standard VBD in the first few rounds, I could see the team VBD coming into play later in the draft. Haven't quite analyzed that yet, but I may later today.

I've used this approach for 4 years with disastrous results. Either I have really bad luck, or I am really bad at estimating who wins, or this doesn't work. I think this really depends on the paramters of your competition. Typically, in a winner take all scenario, balanced line-up is just not good enough - you'll compete, but not win. You need a few long shots or opportunistic players to come through... These tend to be WRs in the mold of Santana Moss or Galloway or Steve Smith who luck out into a few games and perform huge in those... Of course, picking a QB like C-Pep last year works too ;-)

With all the surprises in the NFL playoffs due to parity, it's just too damn hard to project who is going to be around and who isn't. The system I designed above relies less on handicapping acumen than it does on math and history, which, at least in my case, are FAR more reliable.

The better approach depends on your league type. If you can load up on Colts and Seahawks, you definitely should. However some systems only allow one player per NFL team and don't have a bench, just your starting line-up. In that kind of a system I think you have to do some handicapping to ensure you fill out your K and D with teams you don't expect to go very far. By the way, last year was tough for nearly everyone with both LT and SA losing in the first round.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

First I determined how many games each team would play.  For instance, I think Washington will beat Tampa and lose to Seattle, so I'm giving them a 2.  Also, I think Carolina and New York is a toss up, but the winner will lose to Chicago, so I'm giving each of them a 1.5.  Then I figured out every player's PPG this year using the playoff scoring system and multiplied that figure by my projected games played.  That should give you a rough estimate of how your players will perform, though you could get more in-depth by applying some match-up factors.  I tend to think the overall PPG takes that into account already, but to each his own.

I threw some VBD numbers on the guys, but if you're in a league where you have to take a player from each NFL team, you may need some VBD numbers based on their team.  For example, I'm doing a league with only 3 other guys and we have to pick 3 QB, 3 RB, and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, each from a different NFL team.  So, I know there will be 4 and no more than 4 players taken from each team.  After using standard VBD in the first few rounds, I could see the team VBD coming into play later in the draft.  Haven't quite analyzed that yet, but I may later today.

I've used this approach for 4 years with disastrous results. Either I have really bad luck, or I am really bad at estimating who wins, or this doesn't work. I think this really depends on the paramters of your competition. Typically, in a winner take all scenario, balanced line-up is just not good enough - you'll compete, but not win. You need a few long shots or opportunistic players to come through... These tend to be WRs in the mold of Santana Moss or Galloway or Steve Smith who luck out into a few games and perform huge in those... Of course, picking a QB like C-Pep last year works too ;-)

With all the surprises in the NFL playoffs due to parity, it's just too damn hard to project who is going to be around and who isn't. The system I designed above relies less on handicapping acumen than it does on math and history, which, at least in my case, are FAR more reliable.

The better approach depends on your league type. If you can load up on Colts and Seahawks, you definitely should. However some systems only allow one player per NFL team and don't have a bench, just your starting line-up. In that kind of a system I think you have to do some handicapping to ensure you fill out your K and D with teams you don't expect to go very far. By the way, last year was tough for nearly everyone with both LT and SA losing in the first round.

Oh, no question. I thought this thread was specific to the FBG/Huddle challenge - as you say, if it's 1 player per team, that's a whole different ball of wax. Then, you really need to identify key positions based on the scoring system, project the results of games, and choose wisely.