Strategy question first 3 rounds, need some help please (1 Viewer)

[MikeRich66]

12 team league, standard scoring. Start QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, D, AND K. Very old school, no flex and no PPR. I have the 6th pick which will more than likely be my decision between  Julio, ODB, or McCoy, depending if McCoy goes before.

My league LOOOOOOVES QB's. ARod will be gone 100% before my 2nd pick and possible Brady too, so some talent will fall.

My plan is to take one of the WR's, but I'm stuck on what I should do for the next two picks? I do not like any of the RB's that fall in the second round.

Am I crazy for taking Gronk and then coming back with another WR?

Do I take Dez or Cooper in the second round and take Crowell or Lynch in the 3rd?

Or do I take McCoy to lock up at least one stud RB, and then go best available?

I'm torn on what to do...... Any help would be greatly appreciated.

First time on this thread, excited to hear back.

 

[fightingillini]

12 team league....I would just take the BPA for the 1st 3-4 rounds.   If you don't like the RBs in the 2nd round, don't take one.  Nothing wrong with going WR-WR and starting with say Beckham and Cooper, if those are the best players available.

Let your leaguemates take QBs early.  QB is so deep this year, you're better off stockpiling RBs and WRs and your starting TE before getting a QB.

You're overthinking it.  Let the draft come to you.  If you're really worried about having a solid RB, take one at 6.  McCoy or Gordon will be there.  

I mocked a couple of scenarios using standard scoring and your lineup requirements.  Assuming Rodgers and Brady go in the first 18 picks, 

Scenario 1 - Beckham, Dez, Miller

Scenario 2 - Beckham, Cooper, Crowell

Scenario 3 - McCoy, Hilton, Hopkins

Scenario 4 - Julio, Fournette, Hopkins

I would rank these 3-4-2-1 in order of preference.

Anytime I took the WR first, the top 9 RBs were off the board by the time you pick in Round 2, and top 9 RBs is a cutoff to another tier.  If you take a WR in the first, you will have to either take Fournette or Gurley in Round 2, or go WR and take a RB like Miller or Crowell.....and those RBs may not even get back to you in the 3rd.

So IMO, I think you're better off taking a RB at 6, since I like the McCoy-Hilton-Hopkins start better than the other scenarios. 

Good luck.

 

[MikeRich66]

Appreciate your insight. Do you like the idea of Gronk in the second? I dont think he'll fall to me in the 3rd.

 

[fightingillini]

Not really.  I would take Gronk in the 3rd but he likely won't be there.  Too many good options at WR to take Gronk at 2.8

In a standard league, I would just wait on TE and get a guy like Jimmy Graham around round 5-6.

 

[Gally]

I agree with fightingillini.  Go with BPA and don't worry about forcing positions.  Figure out your overall rankings and go from there.  The only thing I am not sure is correct on fightingillini's mocks is that typically mock software doesn't account for individual league trends.....like taking QB's way early.  So when he mentioned that the top 9 RB's are gone by your second pick that may be incorrect due to the early drafting of QB's.  If two are three are taken between your first and second picks it may allow someone to drop that wouldn't show in most mocks. 

The bottom line is to get a ranking of players you like and then go BPA.  Don't force someone just because you think he need a RB or WR or whatever.     

 

[travdogg]

I'd take Gronk over the Hilton/Dez/Cooper/Fournette group. I think he could put up as many points as they do, at a position of far greater value. Frankly, I think that is at least a round early for Fournette. 

I think a Julio/Gronk/Watkins start would be my preference from #6. I want to get a TE early this year. If you went with somebody like Dez in round 2, I'd very much consider Kelce in round 3. 

I'm of the belief this season, that if you can't get Johnson or Bell, that RB is simply a wait and take mid round fliers position. Don't really like any of the round 2-3-4 options.

 

[fightingillini]

I agree with fightingillini.  Go with BPA and don't worry about forcing positions.  Figure out your overall rankings and go from there.  The only thing I am not sure is correct on fightingillini's mocks is that typically mock software doesn't account for individual league trends.....like taking QB's way early.  So when he mentioned that the top 9 RB's are gone by your second pick that may be incorrect due to the early drafting of QB's.  If two are three are taken between your first and second picks it may allow someone to drop that wouldn't show in most mocks. 

The bottom line is to get a ranking of players you like and then go BPA.  Don't force someone just because you think he need a RB or WR or whatever.     

The mocks sometimes had Rodgers gone by pick 18, sometimes not.  Brady was always available at 18.  But even if you account for Rodgers and Brady to be gone, usually 9 RBs and 7 WRs are also gone.  It is a standard league, start 2 RB and 2 WR....RBs gain more value in standard leagues, and you're never pressed to draft WRs, since there are so many and you only have to start 2.  You can get WRs later so I think the OP needs to go RB in the 6 hole, even if that means passing on OBJ or Julio.  If he wants to go with OBJ or Julio (can't argue against it!), then IMO he needs to punt RBs until the at least the 3rd round, since I hate taking Fournette or Gurley in Round 2.

There is a chance that a top 9 RB (like D Murray or Howard) will be there at 18, but the chance is pretty low.

 

[fightingillini]

I'd take Gronk over the Hilton/Dez/Cooper/Fournette group. I think he could put up as many points as they do, at a position of far greater value. Frankly, I think that is at least a round early for Fournette. 

I think a Julio/Gronk/Watkins start would be my preference from #6. I want to get a TE early this year. If you went with somebody like Dez in round 2, I'd very much consider Kelce in round 3. 

I'm of the belief this season, that if you can't get Johnson or Bell, that RB is simply a wait and take mid round fliers position. Don't really like any of the round 2-3-4 options.

Agree that Fournette is way too high in the mid 2nd.

Gronk is a high variance big reward play.  IMO, I don' think you have to gamble in round 2, especially since you probably can get Kelce a round later.  I like OBJ/Cooper/Kelce better than OBJ/Gronk/Watkins.  A lot of upside in the first trio at a fraction of the risk.

I like the top 9 options at RB....DJ,Bell, Zeke, McCoy, Gordon, Freeman, Ajayi, Howard and D Murray.  After that I agree with travdogg.....might as well punt on RBs.  The next tier of RBs....Fournette, Miller, Gurley and Crowell....all have significant risks.  Since you're going to get a good WR in Round 2, might as well go RB in the first and secure one solid option at RB, or do what travdogg recommends and go WR-WR-TE or WR-Gronk-WR, then draft 3-4 RBs in a row.

 

[MikeRich66]

I appreciate the responses. This is my first time on here and didn't really know what to expect. You all have provided some great insight and differing opinions which is very useful. Thanks again and I hope to get a couple more opinions.