Strategy Question - If You Were In Charge Of Democrats - Impeach Trump? (1 Viewer)

[toshiba]

Yet withing a percentage point or two...they correctly predicted the popular vote showing their accuracy as to what the majority of Americans felt.

HTH

Polls are a lot more complex than what you're making them out to be.

Very.  And to expect laymen to get the nuances is both unfair to them and the process.

 

[The Commish]

supermike's gonna be pissed you guys are trying to take his shtick  

 

[toshiba]

Yeah, I do think there is a lot of  misunderstanding on how to read polls.  We need to do a much better job of explaining what the predictions mean and don't mean.

Doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets explained.  A month from now or so another argument about how bad the polls were will come up and it will repeat itself.  As it has often on here.

Sorry, I don't mean here.  I mean when polling is released. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

That is what I can never figure out.  You are absolutely right there ARE more democrats than republicans; and yet you see so many republicans still in public office.  How can that be?  Just by sheer numbers you'd think the DNC should be able to overwhelm the GOP.

I was looking at Gallup data (that only goes back to 2004) -  the average poll respondents that say they are GOP is ~29%, dnc ~32% and independent ~37%.

of independent the percentage that lean GOP ~42%, dnc ~48%.

So while 3-4% more identify as democrats than republicans, the independents lean democrat by 6%.

These are just gross numbers, not segregated by any demographics - but still it adds up to millions of more democrat voters (one number I saw was 42 million dem vs 30 million rep).

Is it just gross mismanagement of getting out the vote that ever allows dems to lose any elections to reps?

Sorry went on a sidetrack there, just startled me to see the gross disparity.

Well part of it is that those numbers don't account for how those voters are broken up via electoral college representatives.  The democrats have gotten more overall votes in the last 3 presidential elections and 4 of the last 5.  That's only resulted in them winning the election in 2 out of 5 based on how that majority was broken up.

It also seems to be rather common knowledge that Republicans are better about rallying their base and getting those people to the actual polls.  They've done a great job adopting god and guns as those are things that people are generally very inspired by and get them to the polls.

 

[Sinn Fein]

You are asking the wrong question - imo.

The right question is - do you proceed with an impeachment inquiry, focused on the Ukrainian stuff?

You can't jump from whistleblower report to impeachment - no matter how much you trust the whistleblower.

You take the report, and you identify witnesses and documents.  You get witnesses under oath, you get the documents.  You see what else is there.  Next step for the House should be to sit down with the whistleblower.  Then you start subpoenaing witnesses and documents.  Then if you believe in your case - you move forward with filing articles of impeachment.

Right now - what you are seeing support for - both in the public and the Dem congresspeople - is to move forward with the investigative process.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Well part of it is that those numbers don't account for how those voters are broken up via electoral college representatives.  The democrats have gotten more overall votes in the last 3 presidential elections and 4 of the last 5.  That's only resulted in them winning the election in 2 out of 5 based on how that majority was broken up.

It also seems to be rather common knowledge that Republicans are better about rallying their base and getting those people to the actual polls.  They've done a great job adopting god and guns as those are things that people are generally very inspired by and get them to the polls.

Totally agreed to the part about electoral college distribution, but that is only for President - I just get the sense that for the most part there are far more dnc leaning voters than gop leaning voters so you'd think the dnc should always carry the elections.  But you are right about the reps getting out the base - so why don't the dems learn from that and do the same?  Maybe not God and guns, but some other rallying point....

 

[roadkill1292]

Totally agreed to the part about electoral college distribution, but that is only for President - I just get the sense that for the most part there are far more dnc leaning voters than gop leaning voters so you'd think the dnc should always carry the elections.  But you are right about the reps getting out the base - so why don't the dems learn from that and do the same?  Maybe not God and guns, but some other rallying point....

That's a really fun question to kick around but this might not be the right thread for it.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

That's a really fun question to kick around but this might not be the right thread for it.

Sorry went on a tangent - back to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[roadkill1292]

Sorry went on a tangent - back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Got a little carried away there, I'm actually second guessing my post. This thread might not be all that bad a place to talk about those kinds of things.

 

[-fish-]

If it's about right and wrong, start an impeachment inquiry.   

If it's about winning, no.   The House voting for impeachment just to have McConnell outmaneuver you again just makes you look weak.   You lost with Garland.   You lost with Kavanaugh.   Mueller's investigation didn't come up empty, but didn't accomplish anything tangible as it relates to Trump or his administration.   You can't get anything passed.   At this point, losing on the most important move you can make just shows that your party is impotent and incompetent. 

Run against Trump on merit, and don't let the GOP-led Senate keep embarrassing you.  

 

[Godsbrother]

Political suicide for the Dems.  Not only an advantage to Trump, but it will hamper Dems in Congress as well for 2020.  The American people aren't in favor of impeachment, but they are in favor of things getting done by Congress and it hasn't because of their fixation on Trump and not their constituents.   Their constituents would much rather see them fulfill their promises that got them elected than be preoccupied with Donald Trump.  They've gotten absolutely nothing done.

It's not for lack of trying.   McConnell is blocking a senate vote on anything that Trump won't sign into law.    Hopefully most Americans realize this.

 

[John Blutarsky]

Do you understand probability?  A 71% chance means that roughly in 3 times, Trump would win the election.  

God what I wouldn't give to play poker at a casino if access to the poker room was restricted to only admit Trump supporters. 

And once again we get the typical condescending post. Have a great weekend Gunz.

 

[tommyGunZ]

And once again we get the typical condescending post. Have a great weekend Gunz.

You're arguing the polls were "wrong" and pointing to probability odds as evidence.  Don't you understand that if there is a 71% chance of A happening, and a 29% chance of B happening, if B happens, it doesn't mean the probability was wrong, it means that the 29% event happened.  

 

[John Blutarsky]

You're arguing the polls were "wrong" and pointing to probability odds as evidence.  Don't you understand that if there is a 71% chance of A happening, and a 29% chance of B happening, if B happens, it doesn't mean the probability was wrong, it means that the 29% event happened.  

Sigh...it's non stop.

 

[snitwitch]

announcing there is an impeachment inquiry is one of the few things that has put trump on his heels these past 3 years, and early polling indicates a significant shift in public opinion in favor of impeachment. 

so tactically it seems like the correct call to me

 

[BroadwayG]

Whatever gets past the 'universal immunity' defense.

 

[whoknew]

I'm still trying to figure out how this thinking works - 

• Trump does terrible thing.
  
• Dems start impeachment hearings to hold him accountable for that terrible thing or things.
  
• Awful news for Democrats. Will only hurt them.
  

Huh?

 

[Don't Noonan]

Do you understand probability?  A 71% chance means that roughly 1 in 3 times, Trump would win the election.  

God what I wouldn't give to play poker at a casino if access to the poker room was restricted to only admit Trump supporters. 

In my experience, Trump supporters are very good at poker.  I play once or twice a week locally and am making on average $800 a month tax free over the past 3 years.

 

[dkp993]

Political suicide for the Dems.  Not only an advantage to Trump, but it will hamper Dems in Congress as well for 2020.  The American people aren't in favor of impeachment, but they are in favor of things getting done by Congress and it hasn't because of their fixation on Trump and not their constituents.   Their constituents would much rather see them fulfill their promises that got them elected than be preoccupied with Donald Trump.  They've gotten absolutely nothing done.

The bold is an interesting comment, when was the last time congress was "getting things done"?  To even attempt to imply this is new and because of democrats fixation on Trump is disingenuous at best (unless of course you just woke up in 2016 from a decades long coma, and if so welcome back!).

 

[dkp993]

You are asking the wrong question - imo.

The right question is - do you proceed with an impeachment inquiry, focused on the Ukrainian stuff?

You can't jump from whistleblower report to impeachment - no matter how much you trust the whistleblower.

You take the report, and you identify witnesses and documents.  You get witnesses under oath, you get the documents.  You see what else is there.  Next step for the House should be to sit down with the whistleblower.  Then you start subpoenaing witnesses and documents.  Then if you believe in your case - you move forward with filing articles of impeachment.

Right now - what you are seeing support for - both in the public and the Dem congresspeople - is to move forward with the investigative process.

100%

 

[McJose]

In my experience, Trump supporters are very good at poker.  I play once or twice a week locally and am making on average $800 a month tax free over the past 3 years.

Sometimes the forum amazes me. In this place where its largely opinion, some people seem to think I'm dumb. Then when I go play werewolf, where you can prove who is gettng things right and who is getting things wrong, I start nailing a ton of stuff and often pull the situation together for my side to the point where I have so much credibility I get killed early by the other side before I can do more damage lol.

When I compare both situations it tells me a lot.

 

[dkp993]

Do you understand probability?  A 71% chance means that roughly 1 in 3 times, Trump would win the election.  

God what I wouldn't give to play poker at a casino if access to the poker room was restricted to only admit Trump supporters. 

In my experience, Trump supporters are very good at poker.  I play once or twice a week locally and am making on average $800 a month tax free over the past 3 years.

Interesting, as an avid poker player myself my anecdotal observations are the exact opposite.   Looks like its time for a poll......

 

[Don't Noonan]

Interesting, as an avid poker player myself my anecdotal observations are the exact opposite.   Looks like its time for a poll......

My take is that they think through things logically and know the odds. 

 

[Zerp]

I voted before reading Joe's condition 'this is not about morality'. I voted entirely based on morality. 

I don't pretend to fully know the law. I'm not certain I have all the facts. And good people on this board, for and against Trump, seem certain the Republican party will choose party over country. 

I hope all Americans support the process.  I don't know if Trump is evil. I hope all Americans agree 'For evil to triumph, all that is required is for good men to do nothing'. 

 

[dkp993]

My take is that they think through things logically and know the odds. 

Expressing my take (and experience) would get me banned from here for a few weeks.  

 

[Don't Noonan]

Expressing my take (and experience) would get me banned from here for a few weeks.  

Of course there are some very succesful folks who I would assume are Trump supporters who like to throw money around and don't care about odds.  Those are fun to play against for sure but you can take some horrid bad beats.

 

[dkp993]

Of course there are some very succesful folks who I would assume are Trump supporters who like to throw money around and don't care about odds.  Those are fun to play against for sure but you can take some horrid bad beats.

Sure.  Not the type of player I was referring too but I digress as injuries are killing my team so I’d like to stay around during the season.....

As a player you know bad beats are a part of it.  Gotta play the long game.  

 

[Phil Elliott]

In high school poli sci teacher did an exercise each year.  Everyone fills out answers to about 20 "issues". Then tells everyone the objective is to win and try to get as many people agreeing to "your" opinions as possible. After 45 minutes end up with two groups and maybe one independent. I have had no faith in the govt doing what is right or wrong...but what will "win". History does seem to repeat.

 

[roadkill1292]

Sometimes the forum amazes me. In this place where its largely opinion, some people seem to think I'm dumb. Then when I go play werewolf, where you can prove who is gettng things right and who is getting things wrong, I start nailing a ton of stuff and often pull the situation together for my side to the point where I have so much credibility I get killed early by the other side before I can do more damage lol.

When I compare both situations it tells me a lot.

 Beej (and I think you're quoting Beej) also once noted that it was sometimes necessary to brag about how smart you were because if you didn't, some people might not realize it.

 

[UniAlias]

In my experience, Trump supporters are very good at poker.  I play once or twice a week locally and am making on average $800 a month tax free over the past 3 years.

Aren't you a financial advisor or something?  Curious why you think ~10k in annual gambling winnings wouldn't be subject to income tax? 

 

[Don't Noonan]

Aren't you a financial advisor or something?  Curious why you think ~10k in annual gambling winnings wouldn't be subject to income tax? 

I have a good CPA

 

[Mister CIA]

Absolutely, and it pleases me to think that senators will have to weigh the choice of hitching their wagons to Trump for all eternity.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Two assumptions here.

1. You magically have control over the Democratic Party and your job is to have a Democrat win the 2020 Presidential Election.

2. This is not about right or wrong or morality. This is about winning or losing. 

Would you move towards impeaching President Trump?

I would.

No idea if it how it will play out in the Presidential election -- so don't know how to answer your question.  But it's the right thing to do and I'd rather go down with that ship if I lose.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Look what polls got you in 2016.

What exactly were you referring to when you said, "the American people aren't in favor of impeachment?"

Do you have some other method other than polls by which you came to this conclusion?

 

[dkp993]

What exactly were you referring to when you said, "the American people aren't in favor of impeachment?"

Do you have some other method other than polls by which you came to this conclusion?

Hint: no. 

He’s been been challenged on that multiple times across multiple threads.  Silence.   

 

[Captain Cranks]

Hint: no. 

He’s been been challenged on that multiple times across multiple threads.  Silence.   

Yeah.  I figured.  It just seemed odd that someone would state a poll-based conclusion only to suggest polls are effectively useless.  

I'm sure JU sees the irony in his position and will clear things up for us.  

 

[jon_mx]

#2 is a big factor. The only reason to impeach is because it's the right thing to do for the country. Not the right thing to do for self preservation. But, they are elected to protect the country and the Constitution. 

One should not hinder the other. 

The only reason?  I can think of many and what I believe the primary reason....to keep their base motivated.   This ideal view that Democrats are purely motivated out of principle is kind of laughable.   Pelosi knows it bad for the general election, but the base has the pitchforks out and are demanding blood so she caved.  

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

The only reason?  I can think of many and what I believe the primary reason....to keep their base motivated.   This ideal view that Democrats are purely motivated out of principle is kind of laughable.   Pelosi knows it bad for the general election, but the base has the pitchforks out and are demanding blood so she caved.  

I agree.  If democrats were purely motivated out of principle the impeachment hearings would have been announced on Jan 3rd.  There was plenty to hold hearing on at that time even without the completion of the Mueller report.  That doesn't mean they would have reached a level to actually file articles of impeachment but that the investigations would have been carried out under the impeachment banner.   Purely principled would not have cared about "egg on the face" or "strengthening the president's hand" or any of that.  Purely principled would have just been about getting to the truth as to how much corruption was going on even if the truth was little to none under all the smoke.  Unfortunately we don't live in such a world.

The answer to Joe's question depends on what percentage  one thinks that the 35 to 40% that don't identify with a party simply doesn't want to be bothered by another scandal and will punish those that go there.  If that answer is most than impeachment is a bad strategy.  If you have more faith in that these people are willing and wanting to know the truth either way then impeachment is the correct strategy here.  I want to keep the faith.

 

[tonydead]

Its giving the only lifeline available to Trump, other than surving up another unlikable candidate. And its sacrifices Biden, all I can say is good luck Dems. 

 

[KCitons]

The only reason?  I can think of many and what I believe the primary reason....to keep their base motivated.   This ideal view that Democrats are purely motivated out of principle is kind of laughable.   Pelosi knows it bad for the general election, but the base has the pitchforks out and are demanding blood so she caved.  

I think it's been pretty clear over the past few years. I'm not the base. So, your theory doesn't apply to me. How do you explain my opinion?

Our government has been disfunctional for decades. This is just a continuation of things circling the drain.

I think your comments are based on your own assumption that the voters of this country (on both sides) are stupid. Now that the stupid people are doing something you don't like, you're upset. It's the exact same thing the Dems have been doing for 2 1/2 years. But, now you're right and they are wrong?  

When you look at things from a distance it's laughable. Get rid of party designation and make people stand on their merit. Make the voter choose based on track record and new ideas. Not based on the letter in the parenthesis. If you want to weed out stupid, make intelligence part of the process. 

 

[KiddLattimer]

Two assumptions here.

1. You magically have control over the Democratic Party and your job is to have a Democrat win the 2020 Presidential Election.

2. This is not about right or wrong or morality. This is about winning or losing. 

Would you move towards impeaching President Trump?

I would not. I can't imagine they have the votes in the senate and if he's not removed from office the average person is going to assume he was not guilty (even though it would just be a technicality). It also really drags Biden down but that probably would have happened regardless. 

Assuming he's not removed from office he spend the entire campaign saying "They know they cant beat me so they're out to get me. They made things up to come after me and failed... twice"

Of course Nancy Pelosi knows how to play the game so maybe she has more votes than I realize, but aside from that scenario I don't see the upside