Strategy Question? (1 Viewer)

[parasaurolophus]

if there are two outs and a runner on second is it a good idea to try and steal 3rd?

I guess this seemed odd to me because if they can steal third, they can probably score on any hit because they will be running on contact.

I dont know that much about strat., but this seemed silly to me.

yesno?

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Never heard that in baseball it is a cardinal sin to make the first or third out at third base?

Even the slowest runners breaking on contact should be able score on anything other than an infield hit from second. And while they seem to happen more frequently when your favorite team is in this situation, infield hits are rather rare.

 

[TommyGilmore]

If you're on 2nd, you're going to score on most hits anyway. The risk of stealing 3rd is not worth the extra 5% chance of an infield hit.

 

[The Man from Laramie]

if there are two outs and a runner on second is it a good idea to try and steal 3rd?

I guess this seemed odd to me because if they can steal third, they can probably score on any hit because they will be running on contact.

I dont know that much about strat., but this seemed silly to me.

yesno?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statisti....php?cid=204022the expected runs if you don't steal is about 0.35 (I'm assuming there is no one on first)

by stealing, the run expectancy becomes about 0.4

So you stand to gain 0.05 runs, but stand to lose 0.35 runs. So you should only steal if the guy running is able to successfully steal third 87.5% of the time.

That's a high bar. Don't steal.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Three words:

SID F'N BREAM