Bob Magaw
Footballguy
with free agency & pro days picture becoming clearer, more of the pieces of the puzzle are snapping into place...
for now, i'm not going to try & predict trades, a dark art...
1 - Miami Dolphins - chris long... matt ryan & jake long also possible, maybe even the late surging gholston... not sure dorsey a good fit in 3-4 (& MIA recently acquired a couple DTs during their near instantaneous 3-4 makeover)... parcells has not taken a lot of QBs with high draft pick, other than bledsoe (& the team did acquire mccown in case previous front office misfired on high 2nd rounder beck, who admittedly didn't make anybody forget marino)... if j. long isn't prototypical LT, #1 overall money enormous sum to cough up for a RT...
2 - St. Louis Rams - glenn dorsey... like a few teams, they hope c. long falls to them (starting DEs little & hall are geezers), but dorsey is a nice consolation prize... if he passes physical, he answered a lot of lingering questions at his recent workout... j. long & gholston also considered... see above on long, & second overall pick could be too high for gholston, who may be one dimensional pass rusher & too raw to make the immediate contribution the rams need... despite his potentially massive upside, rumblings about inconsistency are a concern since the rams have to nail this pick... since last year's 1st round pick carriker has versatility to swing outside to more natural DE spot (college position), a dorsey selection could help the rams improve at two spots on the DL even more than if they unexpectedly land the coveted long... with pressing needs at DE, maybe DT, OT, WR & CB, a pick that could solve two problems is very attractive... the clamoring for a DE may be rendered moot if that young player (carriker), is already on roster (his measurable actually close to long in some respects)... the rams could entertain offers to trade down, & get guys like gholston & ellis... if they trade too far down, gholston likely won't be an option... in the end, unless offer is too good to refuse (& i don't think there has been trade in top 5 of draft for a while), the rams fall in love with dorsey's intangibles (chris long-like), and the chance to get better at a position that has been a problem for the team for seemingly forever... dorsey could be best DT prospect since days of fearsome foursome... if scouts are right & dorsey has sapp-like game, NFC west likes to pass (especially with ex-rams HC martz in SF), & QBs HATE pressure up the middle... dorsey could help hide some deficiencies in STL back seven...
3 - Atlanta Falcons - matt ryan - they could also look at j. long, & possibly gholston (& even ellis, but this seems a bit high)... IF ryan is a franchise QB, that could trump value of an OT, even if long is a LT, & a lot of scouts think long is best suited to play RT... while ryan & new starting RB, michael "the burner" turner, could get beat up initially behind an OL that will need to be torn down & rebuilt from ground up, ryan has mental makeup to survive & thrive, coming from mediocre BC team he had to carry on his shoulders... respected scout mike mayock thinks he has some similar intangibles to peyton manning & brady... this is a DEEP draft in terms of finding starting caliber OTs later in draft, but they won't likely find a QB as good as ryan, even in second (brohm & flacco could be gone already, if teams at top of second make preemptive moves)... the interest in putting the nightmarish vick tenure behind them & replacing him with the new face of the franchise IMMEDIATELY is too obvious... i seriously doubt c. long could fall here (the rams snag him if dolphins don't), but if the rams went j. long or gholston at #2, i could see dorsey getting a look here... new HC came from JAX, a team that had a lot of success building a defense around twin tower DTs hendo & stroud...
4 - Oakland Raiders - vernon gholston - can't decide between mcfadden or gholston (mirroring NYJ)... does anybody know what lurks in the mind of count chocula? i think davis goes mcfadden, but davis always confounds me, so i go gholston (which means he will take mcfadden
)... both of these guys have elite speed for their respective positions, which al is big on, & character questions about mcfadden could earn him bonus points with silver & black... the boost peterson gave MIN doesn't escape OAK's attention, but they already have recently re-signed fargas, jordan & rhodes (& it isn't clear if mcfadden is peterson... many scouts say he isn't)... al doesn't get howie's son, but he gets a player that may have higher upside as a pass rusher... another lesson learned from '07 in a copycat league (in addition to peterson), was how important pass rushing was in helping the giants become giant killers & take down the undefeated pats... given all the recent moves in free agency, the raiders could have a formidable defense (& potentially up 'n coming offense with russell throwing to javon walker, ron curry & zach miller) with DL comprised of tommy kelly & derrick burgess & gholston as bookends, kirk morrison & thomas howard at LB, hall & asomugha maybe best CB tandem in OAK since hayes & haynes, & S gibril wilson added to former top 10 pick huff... wouldn't be a shock if ellis got a look here, with kiffin USC connection, and sapp retiring...
5 - Kansas City Chiefs - j. long... one of the better marriages of BPA with team need in the entire draft... can't think of anybody else they would look at if this transpires on draft day (clady?)... the card will go to the podium in seconds...
6 - New York Jets - darren mcfadden - this pick makes a lot of sense with the investment in off-season in OL with faneca & woody... if OAK takes mcfaddden, i could easily see gholston being a great fit in 3-4... thomas jones still has some gas in the tank, but he is aging & mcfadden could be a difference maker... with a strong running game, it might do a lot to mask the fact that jets have some questions at the QB position... ellis could get a look about this point, not sure he is ideal fit in 3-4... if they don't take mcfadden, jets could face the doomsday scenario of NE grabbing him & having to face him twice a year for the next half decade or more...
7 - New England Patriots - leodis mckelvin - gholston might have been attractive for exact same reasons he would be to jets... the chalk pick here lately seems to be mckelvin... probably too high for a LB in this class (also seemingly a need), & NE traditionally doesn't take LBs high, preferring to go with vets better able to handle the mental rigors of belichick's complex system... see directly above on ellis, plus the team is loaded at DL... pats have lost a few CBs, harrison is getting old, so they need secondary help... mckelvin could have better ball skills, but really shined at senior bowl, & he brings among the best return skills in the draft to the table (jackson possibly best, nearly hester-like & arguably better than ginn?)... if they like any other CBs better, they could obviously be in the mix... they have been known to wheel & deal on draft day, & if they did like another CB to fit their system better, this might be good place to trade down a few spots, possibly to a team looking to move up for ellis (who is unlikely to fall much further, could go as high as ATL at 3 or OAK at 4, & likely won't make it past the bengals), or ryan clady (who the ravens may be looking at, as blue chip LT prospects are so coveted... the example of joe thomas in CLE won't be lost on front offices around the league)...
8 - Baltimore Ravens - ryan clady - many mocks have BAL taking a CB here (possibly mckelvin, if NE doesn't take him, or jenkins... too high for DRC?)... that could be because a lot of mocks have j. long going as high as top 2-3, in which case clady could well go to KC as high as 5, as probably the top LT prospect in the draft)... one constant & given is that ozzie newsome will stay true to his board... ogden is a long shot to return, & has told the team to proceed as if he is done without formally retiring yet... BAL had high expectations last year, but the down season could be a blessing in disguise if it lands them ogden's successor... LT is such a hard position to fill, & while this is a deep draft for tackles, they won't find another blue chip prospect the likes of clady when they draft again in the second... if they like OT idea, not sure if they would go for otah, who would be handy in the rugged AFC north, but he is more of a pure RT, big mauler... maybe chris williams, & a dark horse, brandon albert, who is not only the best OG, but may be one of the best tackles, & could have the athleticism to play LT... another pressing need is QB, but this is probably too high for guy like brohm... he isn't graded as highly as ryan, but could end up being a better pro... a trade down could fit with this scenario... the more likely pick is CB if not LT... & maybe the ravens can later move up from second to snipe a QB like flacco (if not brohm) late in 1st... if so, hopefully this time it works out better than with boller...
9 - Cincinnati Bengals - sedrick ellis - this seems like a no brainer... willie anderson is ancient & levi brown struggled with injuries, so OT might get a look, but CIN did make sure & retain the versatile stacy andrews, who can play OG or OT, & is a late bloomer with excellent bloodlines (his brother in PHI is one of the best OGs in the NFL)... the team is weak in the defensive front seven, so that should take primacy... with justin smith leaving, perhaps DE like derrick harvey could be a possibility... WLB keith rivers is many scouts top LB in draft, could fit a need and won't last much longer, but the DL need is too pressing... ellis could be the best DT in lewis' tenure, he was dominant at the senior bowl, and could make a lot of other problems with bengals defense go away...
10 - New Orleans Saints - keith rivers - back to back trojans picks in top 10... i see this pick a lot, & maybe CB is the way to go (jenkins, DRC... to high for talib & cason?)... the saints look like offense is far from the weakest part of the team... after having a dearth of LB talent since days of mills, jackson, swilling, et al, the team could vastly upgrade the position with vilma & rivers in one season...
11 - Buffalo Bills - mike jenkins - this is a pick that a lot of mocks have a WR going to the bills... if malcolm kelly had worked out & was clean physically, i would put him here... but a bomb shell announcement was made by mayock a few days ago that BOTH kelly's knees are enough of a concern that some teams have actually removed him from their boards... ENTIRELY... ruh roh! not sure if there is another WR in the class that would warrant being selected this high... i like devin thomas next best, he is a JUCO transfer that played div I just one season... jackson is tiny, may be a me guy & not a hard worker... doucet ran a disappointing 4.55 to 4.6 (i actually like him for rams in 2nd - SHHHHHH
), sweed has had his physicality questioned, hardy is a physical talent like poor man's plaxico but has SERIOUS off field issues & character red flags... jenkins could be the best CB in the draft, could quickly emerge as the bills top CB... the bills have some good DEs, there is not DT worth taking here (see saints above), they added poluzny & kawika mitchell to underrated angelo crowell at LB in consecutive years... donte whitner could be a future star at SS... with the offense still in need of a complementary WR to evans, still they could be on the ascent with maturing edwards & lynch, & there could be some good WRs dropping to round 2, so CB could be the best way to manipulate the draft & let it come to them... another heuristic or rule of thumb to franchise architecting to BPA & team need is building to win your division, & AFC east has some good WRs (moss & welker, cotchery & coles)... IF they take WR (jenkins could easily be off the the board at this point, taking decision out of their hands), i'll go with non-orthodox pick & arguably slight reach with devin thomas, who fits the size profile to complement evans... while he lacks the safer, preferred large body of work scouts can draw from, he passes the eyeball test, & may have the best RAC skills of any WR in the draft (RB-like skills in the open field, extremely dangerous)... this would not only help edwards & evans, but could help out lynch as well...
* edit/ADD - being in the AFC east division, players that can help slow down tom brady & the pats would be helpful... a big WR would help them score more, but if they can't slow down the NE juggernaut, they could still be losing 42-24... NYG provided one template in the super bowl (& towards end of regular season)... better coverage would be another approach to better containing brady, if they like the CB talent at that point better than leftover DL, after top DE/DT prospects long, gholston, dorsey & ellis off the board, most likely not past 1.09)... NYJ also in this same boat... an interesting question is, if gholston & mcfadden are both at 1.06, who would they take? gholston might actually help more in the matchup with pats... they may have the concern mentioned already above in context of mcfadden going to jets, whoever they don't pick could land on NE roster & they will have to face them at least two times a year each season... edit/END
12 - Denver Broncos - rashard mendenhall - CC special!
why not? shanahan is as hard for me to put my finger on as notoriously difficult al davis & belichick... there are a few reasons i like this pick... while DEN common wisdom holds that skeletor doesn't take 1st round RBs, two years ago he was reportedly all set to take maroney if he hadn't had a bigger need to go up & get cutler... also, i think mendenhall's skill set will fit bobby turner's system very well... he likes RBs that can cut quickly & explosively through the hole, & mendenhall may be an even better fit for that than the more highly graded overall mcfadden (by some scouts, not mayock)... jonathan stewart's projection is murky now & clouded by toe surgery, & when i saw him, he looked a bit stiff & ponderous when cutting (but i admittedly haven't scouted him extensively... as has been noted above, henry is one second hand chronic failed appeal away from a year vacation without pay on the commish, & while selvin young flashed promise, he continued a penchant for geting dinged that dates back to texas... DEN will have their pick of a few good OL prospects remaining (williams, otah & albert, who should be going off the board very soon, based on their grade & fact that they play coveted position), but DEN has done well with later drafted OL that fit their quirky scheme (same with RBs, the sceptic would rightly add)... i think cutler, mendenhall, marshall & scheffler would make a good looking nucleus of young skill position players to build around... not sure if this would be too big a reach, but MLB jerod mayo flashed great athleticism at combine (42" vertical i think?), & would allow DJ williams to return to more natural WLB position...
13 - Carolina Panthers - chris williams - i think this pick will come down to OL, DE, or possibly RB... which i think they pass on if mendenhall is gone (stewart has injury ???), and maybe even if he isn't... there are other RBs they could get later... they did re-sign their OTs wharton & gross, but perhaps wharton could be upgraded... otah & albert could come into play, but as the best remaining LT prospect, williams could get the nod... like BUF & DEN before them, they might like a DT, with jenkins finally moving on, but really nobody jumps out here (balmer has a lot of questions & could fall all the way out of 1st round)... peppers is coming off his inexplicably worst season, rucker is on his last legs & charles johnson unproven, so harvey definitely has merit... williams a better pass blocker at this point, & delhommed needs better protection than he has gotten past two years, & this could dovetail with panthers plans to pass better, with hackett, muhammad & maybe jarrett hopefully taking pressure off the great steve smith... if wharton could be shunted to OG, that could upgrade team at few spots, & also help jump start the run game... deangelo wiliams could be dangerous if he can get to the second level, once he is in space... one thing that is less in doubt... this is a crucial pick for fox & hurney, who's drafts have been hit & miss... fox is arguably in on one of the hotter hot seats of any other HC up to this point in the draft (with linehan of the rams)...
14 - Chicago Bears - jeff otah - he just seems like he was born to be an integral part of smashmouth running attack... maybe second best RT in draft, after j. long... if CAR were to take otah, they could take williams & move tait to his more natural RT position... if CHI gets otah, tait can remain as serviceable LT... CHI has a bunch of needs,,, how many other teams may be in need of starting QB, RB & WR (they are set at TE with good looking olsen)... i could see mendenhall going here if he drops, but other than tait & kreutz, their OL is badly in need of reinforcements, or the skill position players will be useless... they need to retrench first, & they can address problem areas at skill positions later... bears also need to rebuild interior OL, so albert could be a possibility, maybe an ever so slight reach, but some scouts would say not (ostensibly an OG, some think he has the requisite feet & athleticism to swing out to OT)...
15 - Detroit Lions - derrick harvey - this is where it gets pretty hairy... if the draft unfolds like this, than DET could be one of the most bummed teams up to this point... some of the players they may have been looking at, like the usual suspects at OT, & medenhall (tatum bell currently #1 on RB depth chart, with kevin jones & duckett gone) are off the board... i'm pretty sure it won't be a WR (the obligatory millen shot)... they have a gaping hole where rogers used to be, but again, no DT worthy of this high a pick... marinelli came from TB cover two school, which likes to create pressure with front four... dewayne white may be above average, but he isn't a difference maker by himself... harvey could be groomed to be the top DE on the team (james hall & kalimba edwards exited in consecutive seasons)... alama-francis has potential, but is raw, a project, may take a few years to develope, & marinelli doesn't have that kind of time... lions could actually be very lucky if harvey falls to them... it could well be a big mistake to take mendenhall, who millen might be tempted to take after the RB purge... albert could also be in the mix, or one of other pure OTs if they drop, with OL in disarray... it will be hard to leverage the investment in high picks of calvin johnson, roy williams & stanton if the OL isn't addressed at some point... but realistically, this could be few year retooling project, at least, so they should take the BPA if they think it is harvey... this is a deep OT draft, so maybe that need can be filled in a later round... if DET determined to take a RB, stewart could be in the mix, but with their checkered history of skill position picks in millen era, i don't think he would have the guts to pull the trigger on a RB that might be damaged goods before he even plays a down in the NFL... they can't afford to whiff on this pick (like they have on a litany of 1st rounders on offense, in harrington, charles rogers, mike williams & kevin jones)...
16 - Arizona Cardinals - quentin groves - one of the tougher picks to peg in round one so far, a corollary of the fact that they have a lot of needs (especially on defense)... seeing as this is first 3-4 defense in a while (DC clancy pendergast likes to mix 3-4 & 4-3 alignments & fronts)... not sure if this would be a slight reach, but groves could be one of more explosive pass rushers in the draft, and closest physical & athletic specimen to gholston, who has surged into top 5 consideration... the cards could maybe use OL help, but grimm can coach up some of the players already on roster... CB is clearly a possibility, as they are in a passing division & their CBs aren't special (& former top 10 CB disappointment antrel rolle showed signs of breaking out last year, but may be shifted to FS, which he could probably be very good at... if so, not sure if they would go for likes of DRC or talib, who have flaws... they reportedly like local product antoine casoon... RB a possibility here, especially if mendenhall is still around (otherwise i think stewart's fall lasts a little longer)... edge is approaching senior citizen status in RB years (he should get a discount at denny's)... dansby & hayes are good to solid at ILB, dockett is a pretty good 3-4 DE & 4-3 UT (not a lot of guys like that), they just invested picks in the NT position a few years in a row (including a high second for branch last year), but their 3-4 OLB/4-3 DE-types in bertrand berry & chike okeafor are aging &/or coming of injuries... in a passing division, an easier way to deal with QBs than INTs is knocking them down, & groves will help create pressure, & have whisenhunt flashing back to his PIT days... this pick helps with loss of emerging pass rusher calvin pace, who broke the bank with the jets...
17 - Minnesota Vikings - calais campbell - no secret that MIN needs help at DE... kenechi udeze has been diagnosed with leukemia, & erasmus james has had serial knee injuries... they are the #1 defense against the run, but have not fared nearly as well against the pass... winfield could play better this year if healthy, & madeiu williams could be upgrade at safety, they have good DT & LB situation, so DE could be a missing ingredient that could take defense to another level... harvey could go here if he drops, in a lot of places phillip merling seems to carry a higher grade, but campbell seems to have upside based on his imposing physical stature if he can harness it... matt williamson at espn in recent chat mentioned that brohm could be a great fit in MIN (if he lasts that long... he could also drop further), & i agree... i kind of like tarvaris jackson, but he isn't a lock to emerge as franchise QB... i don't have the guts to pull the trigger on a QB here, though, but i like how williamson thinks... if they surprisingly don't go DE here, could consensus top safety kenny phillips be groomed to replace sharper? he can't play forever...
18 - Houston Texans - DRC - a potentially up 'n coming team that has built on defense, & continues that trend... they have the building blocks in place for a great DL with mario williams & amobi okoye, demeco ryans is one of the top young LBs in the NFL, but they need to add some talent to the secondary, especially with dunta robinson suffering a devastating knee (& hamstring) injury... i think i like cason better, but DRC did well at senior bowl & in his combine positional drills... he has been questioned for not playing up to his athleticism, but he has freakish physical tools if he can be coached up... potentially big upside... a DE like merling would be scary added to their current talent on the DL... the road to the AFC south divisional crown runs through IND, so anything that helps them to pressure manning & knock him down more has a lot to recommend it... RB jonathan stewart is still on the board, but kubiak came from DEN where they traditionally wait on RBs? they might look for WR to complement dre johnson, a problem in the past, but jacoby jones flashed a lot of promise in limited action before going down with an injury, & andre davis had his best season in years, & was retained...
19 Philadelphia Eagles - devin thomas - the first WR goes off the board... at first i was leaning towards giving PHI kenny phillips... when b-dawk retires (possibly soon), they could be in a world of pain at safety... phillips could be a clone, a FS that can deliver crunching hits, with the football smarts to get the secondary lined up right (edit/ADD - & could come in handy in NFC east, which sports some pretty good TEs in witten, cooley, & shockey... if he stays with NYG)... reid seems to love taking linemen in first, & if he goes in that direction, brandon albert & gosder cherilus probably next best OL... what tipped it for me is that eagles have been linked in high profile attempts to land likes of moss & fitzgerald... devin thomas isn't them, but the organization has been very good in the past in attempting to ANTICIPATE needs a few years down the road, BEFORE they happen, & head them off at the pass (from players getting old, to find cheaper alternatives, etc)... there are probably quite a few teams that have worse starting WR duo than PHI with brown & curtis... but they might not think they have a true WR1 on their roster (curtis isn't, brown might not be)... look how good PHI did when they briefly had a frontline WR better than freddie mitchell & todd pinkston...
20 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - malcolm kelly - the bucs have invested a lot in OL past few drafts (two 1sts & one second in past two years alone with davin joseph, arron sears & jeremy trueblood), they have a cast of thousands at QB, i think TE alex smith has potential... WR seems to be most glaring need, with an aging galloway (still playing at high level but i think he is 35+) & pretty much nobody else... maybe desean jackson? i think of gruden preferring big WRs (than again he may have inherited guys like irving fryar in PHI, tim brown in OAK & keyshawn in TB?)... galloway is of course not very big, but he is hulking compared to jackson... limas sweed is a big WR, but his physicality has been questioned... RB could be a need with cadillac's career very uncertain at the moment, & with the team possibly having cause to be pessimistic given the devastating nature of the injury & his lengthy recovery... but graham played extremely well down the stretch, & this draft could be pretty deep in RBs (jonathan stewart still on the board in this mock, but would they replace one injured RB with potentially another?)... back to graham, given the fact that he previously seemed like a marginal player but did so well may lead gruden to think it is the OL, & they can continue to plug graham in there or somebody else (not necessarily a RB with 1st round pedigree), & be fine? on defense, the starters are pro bowler ronde barber & reclamation project philip buchanon, but how much longer will barber play... a CB of the future to groom would be nice, cason could be best left here... kelly is very hard to project... if he didn't have the checkered medical file & injury red flags, he could go as high as 1.11 to BUF... if he is indeed off some teams boards as reported by mayock, that is alarming, & he could easily tumble all the way out of the 1st round... yet, sometimes different teams can have a divergence of opinion on seemingly something as cut & dry as the condition of a prospects knees... this presumably has more to do with, not ability of medical teams to evaluate the state of his knees NOW & make a diagnosis, but to make a long term prognosis on what that means for the future... & also there must be differences among organizations in how risk tolerant (or averse) they are... so if teams differ on the staus of his knees, that might create a window where kelly still goes in the 1st round (possibly higher)... oh yeah, thomas could a long shot to go to PHI (with them liking the big uglies in the 1st) & still be on the board at this point, in which case i would give him to TB...
interstitial commentary section (do not attempt to change the station, we have control of your computer)...
we could be coming into a mini-WR run territory, as three of the next four teams could be looking hard at WR... arguably redskins two biggest needs a big WR (sweed could fall in their laps) & DE, cowboys generally thought to be wanting to come out of round one with two of CB, RB & WR group, & titans two biggest needs DE (to reload after being depleted at position from defection of odom & laboy) and, you guessed it, a playmaking WR weapon to enable VYs develpment (even next team in line seahawks may be out both starting WRs, with hackett departing to CAR & branch possibly missing a significant portion of the year?)...
a corollary of this could be, IF a team, especially on the front end of this potential nasty mini-run (PHI, TB, WAS), identifies WR as primary need to be addressed, but doesn't like the value proposition at that point in the draft & is contemplating a move down, may not want to trade TOO far down, as teams near here could be lurking in the shadows, waiting to snipe the next best WR (some of the top prospects have dropped but now may start to leave the board fast & furious)...
back to regular programming...
21 - Washington Redskins - limas sweed - the WR mini-run continues... a big WR like sweed could help a lot in the red zone, deployed with smurfs moss & randle-el... WAS also linked with a DE a lot in mocks, as they could use a bookend with andre carter to put more heat on the very good QBs in the division (romo, mcnabb & manning)... carter may be underrated & has done well in stretches, but when was the last time the redskins had two good DEs (mann & manley?)... if they opt for DE, merling would be the obvious pick (or calais campbell if he is still on the board & merling is gone, in which case maybe donnybrook won't have to buy a new TV after all )... it might have been in the always incisive draft countdown mock that i was reminded that WAS had a fairly good stop unit statistically last season, & arguably are underachiving more on offense & therefore need more help on THAT side of the ball... potentially they have issues at CB, as springs is ancient & former top 10 pick carlos rogers is returning from injury... some teams might not want a lot of money tied up in one position (& WAS already have aforementioned moss & randle-el), but getting a 1st round WR at pick 1.21 is a lot different than if he were top 5, so he should be very affordable, at least for a while... with some of their OL aging, that could be addressed here... albert is still on the board, & so is cherilus... a top 5 OT prospect or the top OG in the draft (albert could have versatility to be both) could easily leave the board at this juncture...
22 - Dallas Cowboys - antoine cason - a lot of team have the cowboys taking mcfadden running mate felix jones here (or with next pick, & they could still get him there)... also WR is thought to be in the mix with either of the two 1sts, but some of the best ones are already off the board... i think cason will be more highly graded than other players, they need a nickle CB & henry is oft-injured... aqib talib could be an option, & brings return skills to the table... if DAL gets pac-man, i would probably change this pick to a RB... possibly felix jones, who also brings elite return skills (as well as a magic bag of tricks), stewart still hanging around (near an an area of the draft real estate where they passed on the similar physical specimen & athlete at the position in steven jackson few years ago), or WR, possibly early doucet... TO not young but playing at extremely high level, & they re-signed crayton, so maybe not as big a need as for RB depth (DAL also has other WRs on roster, & they reportedly like stanback, plus witten is a tremendous receiving weapon)... barber decisively beat out julius jones, but he has been in RBBC dating back to minnesota, & he has a violent collision-friendly running style which could lead to injury at some point...
23 - Pittsburgh Steelers - brandon albert - because bloom would want it that way (kirwan has cherilus going here, which could make a lot of sense, especially if albert is gone... not sure if that is case in kirwan's mock?)... if those guys aren't here, they have lost some LBs in recent years (porter, haggans), farrior is getting up there in years, so if groves were to drop, he might be attractive... he could play 3-4 LB in that alignment, but if tomlin wants to shift more to a 4-3 (or at least like to be able show both looks interchangably, like pats & cards), could play DE... but that theory could get blowed up because they just drafted LBs timmons & woodley bang-bang in the 1st & 2nd round last year...
24 - Tennessee Titans - desean jackson - the titans have one of the most mediocre WR positional groups in the league... VY could use some help, & the thought of young buying time with his feet while jackson scoots downfield & gets open could be scary to opposing secondaries... jackson could easily have gone higher, but he is tiny & may have work ethic issues... yet he has compelling, elite return skills (some scouts have said he is better than ted ginn), and that is a coveted trait in the post-devin hester NFL landscape... could be a game changer that helps them win a few more games a year, & could help tip the balance in the ultra-competitive AFC south... this could also help ease the sting of the pac-man fiasco & replace his pro bowl caliber return skills... also could be a case of replacing one me-guy with another, but jackson has nowhere close to the off-field & character red flags of the make it rain rain man, man ... while on the subject, TEN has in the past seemingly chosen to not weight character & off-field concerns as heaviliy as some other teams (not sure if this should be attributed to floyd reese, fisher, or both?), IF they think a player can help them... most infamously with pac-man, but also in case of len-whale white, & even a stud like haynseworth, who has also made some extremely poor decisions on & off the field, has had his share of indiscretions, & probably has anger management issues (you want a nice DT? )... a guy like hardy could fit right into this equation, but i thought his issues were so creepy that i project him to fall out of the 1st round... & perhaps the titans learned their lesson with pac-man... DE is an obvious need with odom & laboy leaving, but haynesworth played like the best DT in football last season... unless signing a huge contract turns him into a fat, lazy slob, he single-handedly destroys the interior of OLs, & will make the job of whoever lines up at DE a whole lot easier... they still have kyle vanden bosch... also, like a pump action shotgun, they could reload in a later round... without referencing it, i don't think odom or laboy came from first two rounds even (both 3rds?)... if they are determined to get a DE here, merling is still on board in this mock (or calais campbell could be, depending what teams like MIN ((could take brohm?)) & WAS do)... maybe WR doesn't seem like titans style (i think dyson only 1st round WR in past decade?), but one of the architects of previous drafts, reese, is no longer around, so the past may not be the best indicator of the present & future in this case, in terms of organizational tendencies... & they have tried adding guys in later rounds (3-4-5... see roydell williams, paul williams, courtney roby, et al), but the throwing lower pedigree WRs against the wall and see what sticks, scattershotgun approach hasn't worked...
25 - Seattle Seahawks - gosder cherilus - i think two other players that might be looked at here are local product jonathan stewart at RB & their pick of TE (dustin keller's workout was so impressive that he may have catapulted over fred davis for best receiving TE prospect in draft)... the seahawks did add the polarizing julius jones, as well as TJ duckett, to upgrade their RBs... stewart could be a big upgrade, if his toe is right... that will factor into the decision... on the other hand, SEA had some well documented problems with the OL last year, so if he has nowhere to run, maybe an OL makes more sense... they already added wahle from CAR in free agency... cherilus could be upgrade at RT for a few years, & has the feet & athleticism for a big man that he could be groomed as serial pro bowler & one of the best LTs of his generation (with orlando pace & jonathan ogden), walter jones... with better blocking & a healthy JJ (vs. damaged SA), the seahawks run game could be in good shape, & they could look for a TE in round 2 (if davis drops, or possibly carlson from notre dame, who might help the most in the run game, & more so than incumbent pollard, for who blocking has never been a strong suit)...
26 - Jacksonville Jaguars - phillip merling - he could be long gone, but if still there (or calais campbell if he drops) could address what has been a problem area for a few years... kenny phillips is highest graded safety, which could be a good fit, but not sure he would be ideal complement with reggie nelson?
27 - San Diego Chargers - kenny phillips - aqib talib could fill role of nickle CB, but phillips may carry a higher grade at this point, & he could be an upgrade at safety for the chargers... they can address the loss of michael "burner" turner later on in the draft... because the chargers have such a strong, balanced & deep roster, they can pick the BPA as they see him at that point, & could go in a number of directions for depth... gotta admit, this was one of the more difficult picks in the mock for me, with teams like DEN & PHI, who i don't have a strong sense of the direction they may be going in... if cherilus drops, smith might not be able to resist adding maybe one of the last blue chip OT prospects, & stockpile at the critically important OL position...
28 - Dallas Cowboys - felix jones - if the cowboys get pac-man, i would change cason to jones in that spot, & put early doucet here... but for now, i'll go with cason there & jones here... he could be underrated as he was overshadowed by an extremely gifted runner in mcfadden... he could not be as good as mcfadden, & still be very good... while some scouts question whether he could carry the load, it is a moot point with barber... like jones, barber was used to being in a rotation with maroney in college... if cowboys are confident they can grab a RB replacement in a later round in what may be a deep draft class at the position, they could opt for WR like doucet... manningham & hardy have issues that may have knocked them out of the 1st (doucet could drop to early second himself)... DAL traded one of two 1st rounders to CLE last year which the browns used to take quinn (in which they recouped CLE's 1st this year)... if the price is right, they would be excellently positioned for a glitch in the matrix moment with a repeat, to a team looking to move up from the top of the second to the bottom of the first, & grab brohm (if he is still there) or flacco... all the teams at top of round one that considered a QB but passed (maybe MIA, ATL, KC, BAL), may want to make a pre-emptive move if they don't think they can remain passive & hope their prospect falls to them... DAL is the only team in the 1st round with two selections, & would be enabled to make this kind of a move...
29 - San Francisco 49ers - early doucet - the two biggest needs could be OL & DL... larry allen is retiring or moving on, kwame brown left for OK (though they didn't want to keep him), bryant young rode into the sunset, marques douglas in free agency... not sure what OL or DL i would give them at this point... maybe they trade down a little, as they have a few holes to fill (trading down is an option for a few teams around here, as SD & GB have pretty balanced rosters without a lot of glaring weaknesses, & could afford to do it, & DAL has the extra 1st rounder to bargain with... this is coupled with the fact that 3-4 teams could be jockeying to get into these spots to scoop up a QB, brohm if he drops, flacco, henne)... if kenny phillips dropped, he would form a great safety tandem with michael lewis, & NFC west has some dangerous WRs (holt, fitzgerald & boldin)... Adding mike martz as OC with one of the most motley WR crews in the NFL (bruce helps, but he was a ram when the were the LOS ANGELES rams) is like being all dressed up for the prom & having nowhere to go... hardy is still here, & would be very dangerous red zone weapon, but martz seems to prefer quicker WRs capable of running precise routes in his timing-based passing attack... if doucet isn't there, manningham has some similarities to bruce in terms of physical stature, athleticism & skill set, & he could be mentored by bruce & steeped in martz's system by a master of it for a few years.
30 - Green Bay Packers - brian brohm - april fools... april fools again... i'm not kidding... why not add depth to a critically important position... the packers used to stock up at the position even when favre was around... rodgers isn't proven physically & brohm might be better iin a few years, with maturation & development... its not like rodgers was a #1 overall pick at the position... he fell, far (like quinn), so some other teams weren't sold on him (the teams that skipped over him didn't have a need, not an indictment on him, but it didn't appear a lot of teams tried to trade UP for him, which might be)... i thought rodgers acquited himself well in limited chance last year, but it would be a smart pick to have insurance at a position that had a lot of turnover last year around the league due to injury, at a position that might be most important on the field... & brohm looked likke he might have been taken as high as top 5-10 this time last year... more likely, ANOTHER team looking to get QB could trade into this spot, & GB could still maybe get QB insurance a few picks later, if they want to... jonathan stewart could be a STEAL at this point (or for NYG with next pick)...
31 - New England - forfeited (spygate)
32 - New York Giants - dustin keller - maybe 2nd LB off the board (keith rivers went all the way back in top 10)... jerrod mayo, or i seem to see connor in this spot a lot... i also see phillips here, with gibril wilson gone, but if phillips is gone, safety, value on the board dictates they wait... WR could be looked at, toomer is ancient, burress was hurt chronically last year & shockey is hurt a lot & it is unclear if he is in the team's future plans... steve smith did flash promise towards end of season & in super bowl run, but he looks like a natural WR2... another way to give help is to add maybe the most athletic TE in the draft, with most upside as a WR... it is a rare 1st round without a TE... the team was decimated at CB last year, too, so aqib talib could get a look if he falls this far...
edit/ADD - shockey is hurt a lot, may not have a long career, & there seem to be some questions about the mutual feelings of shockey & NYG organization with each other? (end edit)
on the bubble, by position...
QB - flacco & henne
RB - stewart
WR - hardy, manningham, caldwell
TE - fred davis
OT - sam baker
OG - ?
C - nobody
DT - kentwan balmer
DE - lawrence jackson
LB - connor, jerrod mayo, curtis lofton
S - nobody
CB - talib, reggie smith (S/CB tweener), brandon flowers
for now, i'm not going to try & predict trades, a dark art...
1 - Miami Dolphins - chris long... matt ryan & jake long also possible, maybe even the late surging gholston... not sure dorsey a good fit in 3-4 (& MIA recently acquired a couple DTs during their near instantaneous 3-4 makeover)... parcells has not taken a lot of QBs with high draft pick, other than bledsoe (& the team did acquire mccown in case previous front office misfired on high 2nd rounder beck, who admittedly didn't make anybody forget marino)... if j. long isn't prototypical LT, #1 overall money enormous sum to cough up for a RT...
2 - St. Louis Rams - glenn dorsey... like a few teams, they hope c. long falls to them (starting DEs little & hall are geezers), but dorsey is a nice consolation prize... if he passes physical, he answered a lot of lingering questions at his recent workout... j. long & gholston also considered... see above on long, & second overall pick could be too high for gholston, who may be one dimensional pass rusher & too raw to make the immediate contribution the rams need... despite his potentially massive upside, rumblings about inconsistency are a concern since the rams have to nail this pick... since last year's 1st round pick carriker has versatility to swing outside to more natural DE spot (college position), a dorsey selection could help the rams improve at two spots on the DL even more than if they unexpectedly land the coveted long... with pressing needs at DE, maybe DT, OT, WR & CB, a pick that could solve two problems is very attractive... the clamoring for a DE may be rendered moot if that young player (carriker), is already on roster (his measurable actually close to long in some respects)... the rams could entertain offers to trade down, & get guys like gholston & ellis... if they trade too far down, gholston likely won't be an option... in the end, unless offer is too good to refuse (& i don't think there has been trade in top 5 of draft for a while), the rams fall in love with dorsey's intangibles (chris long-like), and the chance to get better at a position that has been a problem for the team for seemingly forever... dorsey could be best DT prospect since days of fearsome foursome... if scouts are right & dorsey has sapp-like game, NFC west likes to pass (especially with ex-rams HC martz in SF), & QBs HATE pressure up the middle... dorsey could help hide some deficiencies in STL back seven...
3 - Atlanta Falcons - matt ryan - they could also look at j. long, & possibly gholston (& even ellis, but this seems a bit high)... IF ryan is a franchise QB, that could trump value of an OT, even if long is a LT, & a lot of scouts think long is best suited to play RT... while ryan & new starting RB, michael "the burner" turner, could get beat up initially behind an OL that will need to be torn down & rebuilt from ground up, ryan has mental makeup to survive & thrive, coming from mediocre BC team he had to carry on his shoulders... respected scout mike mayock thinks he has some similar intangibles to peyton manning & brady... this is a DEEP draft in terms of finding starting caliber OTs later in draft, but they won't likely find a QB as good as ryan, even in second (brohm & flacco could be gone already, if teams at top of second make preemptive moves)... the interest in putting the nightmarish vick tenure behind them & replacing him with the new face of the franchise IMMEDIATELY is too obvious... i seriously doubt c. long could fall here (the rams snag him if dolphins don't), but if the rams went j. long or gholston at #2, i could see dorsey getting a look here... new HC came from JAX, a team that had a lot of success building a defense around twin tower DTs hendo & stroud...
4 - Oakland Raiders - vernon gholston - can't decide between mcfadden or gholston (mirroring NYJ)... does anybody know what lurks in the mind of count chocula? i think davis goes mcfadden, but davis always confounds me, so i go gholston (which means he will take mcfadden
)... both of these guys have elite speed for their respective positions, which al is big on, & character questions about mcfadden could earn him bonus points with silver & black... the boost peterson gave MIN doesn't escape OAK's attention, but they already have recently re-signed fargas, jordan & rhodes (& it isn't clear if mcfadden is peterson... many scouts say he isn't)... al doesn't get howie's son, but he gets a player that may have higher upside as a pass rusher... another lesson learned from '07 in a copycat league (in addition to peterson), was how important pass rushing was in helping the giants become giant killers & take down the undefeated pats... given all the recent moves in free agency, the raiders could have a formidable defense (& potentially up 'n coming offense with russell throwing to javon walker, ron curry & zach miller) with DL comprised of tommy kelly & derrick burgess & gholston as bookends, kirk morrison & thomas howard at LB, hall & asomugha maybe best CB tandem in OAK since hayes & haynes, & S gibril wilson added to former top 10 pick huff... wouldn't be a shock if ellis got a look here, with kiffin USC connection, and sapp retiring...5 - Kansas City Chiefs - j. long... one of the better marriages of BPA with team need in the entire draft... can't think of anybody else they would look at if this transpires on draft day (clady?)... the card will go to the podium in seconds...
6 - New York Jets - darren mcfadden - this pick makes a lot of sense with the investment in off-season in OL with faneca & woody... if OAK takes mcfaddden, i could easily see gholston being a great fit in 3-4... thomas jones still has some gas in the tank, but he is aging & mcfadden could be a difference maker... with a strong running game, it might do a lot to mask the fact that jets have some questions at the QB position... ellis could get a look about this point, not sure he is ideal fit in 3-4... if they don't take mcfadden, jets could face the doomsday scenario of NE grabbing him & having to face him twice a year for the next half decade or more...
7 - New England Patriots - leodis mckelvin - gholston might have been attractive for exact same reasons he would be to jets... the chalk pick here lately seems to be mckelvin... probably too high for a LB in this class (also seemingly a need), & NE traditionally doesn't take LBs high, preferring to go with vets better able to handle the mental rigors of belichick's complex system... see directly above on ellis, plus the team is loaded at DL... pats have lost a few CBs, harrison is getting old, so they need secondary help... mckelvin could have better ball skills, but really shined at senior bowl, & he brings among the best return skills in the draft to the table (jackson possibly best, nearly hester-like & arguably better than ginn?)... if they like any other CBs better, they could obviously be in the mix... they have been known to wheel & deal on draft day, & if they did like another CB to fit their system better, this might be good place to trade down a few spots, possibly to a team looking to move up for ellis (who is unlikely to fall much further, could go as high as ATL at 3 or OAK at 4, & likely won't make it past the bengals), or ryan clady (who the ravens may be looking at, as blue chip LT prospects are so coveted... the example of joe thomas in CLE won't be lost on front offices around the league)...
8 - Baltimore Ravens - ryan clady - many mocks have BAL taking a CB here (possibly mckelvin, if NE doesn't take him, or jenkins... too high for DRC?)... that could be because a lot of mocks have j. long going as high as top 2-3, in which case clady could well go to KC as high as 5, as probably the top LT prospect in the draft)... one constant & given is that ozzie newsome will stay true to his board... ogden is a long shot to return, & has told the team to proceed as if he is done without formally retiring yet... BAL had high expectations last year, but the down season could be a blessing in disguise if it lands them ogden's successor... LT is such a hard position to fill, & while this is a deep draft for tackles, they won't find another blue chip prospect the likes of clady when they draft again in the second... if they like OT idea, not sure if they would go for otah, who would be handy in the rugged AFC north, but he is more of a pure RT, big mauler... maybe chris williams, & a dark horse, brandon albert, who is not only the best OG, but may be one of the best tackles, & could have the athleticism to play LT... another pressing need is QB, but this is probably too high for guy like brohm... he isn't graded as highly as ryan, but could end up being a better pro... a trade down could fit with this scenario... the more likely pick is CB if not LT... & maybe the ravens can later move up from second to snipe a QB like flacco (if not brohm) late in 1st... if so, hopefully this time it works out better than with boller...
9 - Cincinnati Bengals - sedrick ellis - this seems like a no brainer... willie anderson is ancient & levi brown struggled with injuries, so OT might get a look, but CIN did make sure & retain the versatile stacy andrews, who can play OG or OT, & is a late bloomer with excellent bloodlines (his brother in PHI is one of the best OGs in the NFL)... the team is weak in the defensive front seven, so that should take primacy... with justin smith leaving, perhaps DE like derrick harvey could be a possibility... WLB keith rivers is many scouts top LB in draft, could fit a need and won't last much longer, but the DL need is too pressing... ellis could be the best DT in lewis' tenure, he was dominant at the senior bowl, and could make a lot of other problems with bengals defense go away...
10 - New Orleans Saints - keith rivers - back to back trojans picks in top 10... i see this pick a lot, & maybe CB is the way to go (jenkins, DRC... to high for talib & cason?)... the saints look like offense is far from the weakest part of the team... after having a dearth of LB talent since days of mills, jackson, swilling, et al, the team could vastly upgrade the position with vilma & rivers in one season...
11 - Buffalo Bills - mike jenkins - this is a pick that a lot of mocks have a WR going to the bills... if malcolm kelly had worked out & was clean physically, i would put him here... but a bomb shell announcement was made by mayock a few days ago that BOTH kelly's knees are enough of a concern that some teams have actually removed him from their boards... ENTIRELY... ruh roh! not sure if there is another WR in the class that would warrant being selected this high... i like devin thomas next best, he is a JUCO transfer that played div I just one season... jackson is tiny, may be a me guy & not a hard worker... doucet ran a disappointing 4.55 to 4.6 (i actually like him for rams in 2nd - SHHHHHH
), sweed has had his physicality questioned, hardy is a physical talent like poor man's plaxico but has SERIOUS off field issues & character red flags... jenkins could be the best CB in the draft, could quickly emerge as the bills top CB... the bills have some good DEs, there is not DT worth taking here (see saints above), they added poluzny & kawika mitchell to underrated angelo crowell at LB in consecutive years... donte whitner could be a future star at SS... with the offense still in need of a complementary WR to evans, still they could be on the ascent with maturing edwards & lynch, & there could be some good WRs dropping to round 2, so CB could be the best way to manipulate the draft & let it come to them... another heuristic or rule of thumb to franchise architecting to BPA & team need is building to win your division, & AFC east has some good WRs (moss & welker, cotchery & coles)... IF they take WR (jenkins could easily be off the the board at this point, taking decision out of their hands), i'll go with non-orthodox pick & arguably slight reach with devin thomas, who fits the size profile to complement evans... while he lacks the safer, preferred large body of work scouts can draw from, he passes the eyeball test, & may have the best RAC skills of any WR in the draft (RB-like skills in the open field, extremely dangerous)... this would not only help edwards & evans, but could help out lynch as well...* edit/ADD - being in the AFC east division, players that can help slow down tom brady & the pats would be helpful... a big WR would help them score more, but if they can't slow down the NE juggernaut, they could still be losing 42-24... NYG provided one template in the super bowl (& towards end of regular season)... better coverage would be another approach to better containing brady, if they like the CB talent at that point better than leftover DL, after top DE/DT prospects long, gholston, dorsey & ellis off the board, most likely not past 1.09)... NYJ also in this same boat... an interesting question is, if gholston & mcfadden are both at 1.06, who would they take? gholston might actually help more in the matchup with pats... they may have the concern mentioned already above in context of mcfadden going to jets, whoever they don't pick could land on NE roster & they will have to face them at least two times a year each season... edit/END
12 - Denver Broncos - rashard mendenhall - CC special!
why not? shanahan is as hard for me to put my finger on as notoriously difficult al davis & belichick... there are a few reasons i like this pick... while DEN common wisdom holds that skeletor doesn't take 1st round RBs, two years ago he was reportedly all set to take maroney if he hadn't had a bigger need to go up & get cutler... also, i think mendenhall's skill set will fit bobby turner's system very well... he likes RBs that can cut quickly & explosively through the hole, & mendenhall may be an even better fit for that than the more highly graded overall mcfadden (by some scouts, not mayock)... jonathan stewart's projection is murky now & clouded by toe surgery, & when i saw him, he looked a bit stiff & ponderous when cutting (but i admittedly haven't scouted him extensively... as has been noted above, henry is one second hand chronic failed appeal away from a year vacation without pay on the commish, & while selvin young flashed promise, he continued a penchant for geting dinged that dates back to texas... DEN will have their pick of a few good OL prospects remaining (williams, otah & albert, who should be going off the board very soon, based on their grade & fact that they play coveted position), but DEN has done well with later drafted OL that fit their quirky scheme (same with RBs, the sceptic would rightly add)... i think cutler, mendenhall, marshall & scheffler would make a good looking nucleus of young skill position players to build around... not sure if this would be too big a reach, but MLB jerod mayo flashed great athleticism at combine (42" vertical i think?), & would allow DJ williams to return to more natural WLB position...13 - Carolina Panthers - chris williams - i think this pick will come down to OL, DE, or possibly RB... which i think they pass on if mendenhall is gone (stewart has injury ???), and maybe even if he isn't... there are other RBs they could get later... they did re-sign their OTs wharton & gross, but perhaps wharton could be upgraded... otah & albert could come into play, but as the best remaining LT prospect, williams could get the nod... like BUF & DEN before them, they might like a DT, with jenkins finally moving on, but really nobody jumps out here (balmer has a lot of questions & could fall all the way out of 1st round)... peppers is coming off his inexplicably worst season, rucker is on his last legs & charles johnson unproven, so harvey definitely has merit... williams a better pass blocker at this point, & delhommed needs better protection than he has gotten past two years, & this could dovetail with panthers plans to pass better, with hackett, muhammad & maybe jarrett hopefully taking pressure off the great steve smith... if wharton could be shunted to OG, that could upgrade team at few spots, & also help jump start the run game... deangelo wiliams could be dangerous if he can get to the second level, once he is in space... one thing that is less in doubt... this is a crucial pick for fox & hurney, who's drafts have been hit & miss... fox is arguably in on one of the hotter hot seats of any other HC up to this point in the draft (with linehan of the rams)...
14 - Chicago Bears - jeff otah - he just seems like he was born to be an integral part of smashmouth running attack... maybe second best RT in draft, after j. long... if CAR were to take otah, they could take williams & move tait to his more natural RT position... if CHI gets otah, tait can remain as serviceable LT... CHI has a bunch of needs,,, how many other teams may be in need of starting QB, RB & WR (they are set at TE with good looking olsen)... i could see mendenhall going here if he drops, but other than tait & kreutz, their OL is badly in need of reinforcements, or the skill position players will be useless... they need to retrench first, & they can address problem areas at skill positions later... bears also need to rebuild interior OL, so albert could be a possibility, maybe an ever so slight reach, but some scouts would say not (ostensibly an OG, some think he has the requisite feet & athleticism to swing out to OT)...
15 - Detroit Lions - derrick harvey - this is where it gets pretty hairy...
if the draft unfolds like this, than DET could be one of the most bummed teams up to this point... some of the players they may have been looking at, like the usual suspects at OT, & medenhall (tatum bell currently #1 on RB depth chart, with kevin jones & duckett gone) are off the board... i'm pretty sure it won't be a WR (the obligatory millen shot)... they have a gaping hole where rogers used to be, but again, no DT worthy of this high a pick... marinelli came from TB cover two school, which likes to create pressure with front four... dewayne white may be above average, but he isn't a difference maker by himself... harvey could be groomed to be the top DE on the team (james hall & kalimba edwards exited in consecutive seasons)... alama-francis has potential, but is raw, a project, may take a few years to develope, & marinelli doesn't have that kind of time... lions could actually be very lucky if harvey falls to them... it could well be a big mistake to take mendenhall, who millen might be tempted to take after the RB purge... albert could also be in the mix, or one of other pure OTs if they drop, with OL in disarray... it will be hard to leverage the investment in high picks of calvin johnson, roy williams & stanton if the OL isn't addressed at some point... but realistically, this could be few year retooling project, at least, so they should take the BPA if they think it is harvey... this is a deep OT draft, so maybe that need can be filled in a later round... if DET determined to take a RB, stewart could be in the mix, but with their checkered history of skill position picks in millen era, i don't think he would have the guts to pull the trigger on a RB that might be damaged goods before he even plays a down in the NFL... they can't afford to whiff on this pick (like they have on a litany of 1st rounders on offense, in harrington, charles rogers, mike williams & kevin jones)...16 - Arizona Cardinals - quentin groves - one of the tougher picks to peg in round one so far, a corollary of the fact that they have a lot of needs (especially on defense)... seeing as this is first 3-4 defense in a while (DC clancy pendergast likes to mix 3-4 & 4-3 alignments & fronts)... not sure if this would be a slight reach, but groves could be one of more explosive pass rushers in the draft, and closest physical & athletic specimen to gholston, who has surged into top 5 consideration... the cards could maybe use OL help, but grimm can coach up some of the players already on roster... CB is clearly a possibility, as they are in a passing division & their CBs aren't special (& former top 10 CB disappointment antrel rolle showed signs of breaking out last year, but may be shifted to FS, which he could probably be very good at... if so, not sure if they would go for likes of DRC or talib, who have flaws... they reportedly like local product antoine casoon... RB a possibility here, especially if mendenhall is still around (otherwise i think stewart's fall lasts a little longer)... edge is approaching senior citizen status in RB years (he should get a discount at denny's)... dansby & hayes are good to solid at ILB, dockett is a pretty good 3-4 DE & 4-3 UT (not a lot of guys like that), they just invested picks in the NT position a few years in a row (including a high second for branch last year), but their 3-4 OLB/4-3 DE-types in bertrand berry & chike okeafor are aging &/or coming of injuries... in a passing division, an easier way to deal with QBs than INTs is knocking them down, & groves will help create pressure, & have whisenhunt flashing back to his PIT days... this pick helps with loss of emerging pass rusher calvin pace, who broke the bank with the jets...
17 - Minnesota Vikings - calais campbell - no secret that MIN needs help at DE... kenechi udeze has been diagnosed with leukemia, & erasmus james has had serial knee injuries... they are the #1 defense against the run, but have not fared nearly as well against the pass... winfield could play better this year if healthy, & madeiu williams could be upgrade at safety, they have good DT & LB situation, so DE could be a missing ingredient that could take defense to another level... harvey could go here if he drops, in a lot of places phillip merling seems to carry a higher grade, but campbell seems to have upside based on his imposing physical stature if he can harness it... matt williamson at espn in recent chat mentioned that brohm could be a great fit in MIN (if he lasts that long... he could also drop further), & i agree... i kind of like tarvaris jackson, but he isn't a lock to emerge as franchise QB... i don't have the guts to pull the trigger on a QB here, though, but i like how williamson thinks... if they surprisingly don't go DE here, could consensus top safety kenny phillips be groomed to replace sharper? he can't play forever...
18 - Houston Texans - DRC - a potentially up 'n coming team that has built on defense, & continues that trend... they have the building blocks in place for a great DL with mario williams & amobi okoye, demeco ryans is one of the top young LBs in the NFL, but they need to add some talent to the secondary, especially with dunta robinson suffering a devastating knee (& hamstring) injury... i think i like cason better, but DRC did well at senior bowl & in his combine positional drills... he has been questioned for not playing up to his athleticism, but he has freakish physical tools if he can be coached up... potentially big upside... a DE like merling would be scary added to their current talent on the DL... the road to the AFC south divisional crown runs through IND, so anything that helps them to pressure manning & knock him down more has a lot to recommend it... RB jonathan stewart is still on the board, but kubiak came from DEN where they traditionally wait on RBs? they might look for WR to complement dre johnson, a problem in the past, but jacoby jones flashed a lot of promise in limited action before going down with an injury, & andre davis had his best season in years, & was retained...
19 Philadelphia Eagles - devin thomas - the first WR goes off the board... at first i was leaning towards giving PHI kenny phillips... when b-dawk retires (possibly soon), they could be in a world of pain at safety... phillips could be a clone, a FS that can deliver crunching hits, with the football smarts to get the secondary lined up right (edit/ADD - & could come in handy in NFC east, which sports some pretty good TEs in witten, cooley, & shockey... if he stays with NYG)... reid seems to love taking linemen in first, & if he goes in that direction, brandon albert & gosder cherilus probably next best OL... what tipped it for me is that eagles have been linked in high profile attempts to land likes of moss & fitzgerald... devin thomas isn't them, but the organization has been very good in the past in attempting to ANTICIPATE needs a few years down the road, BEFORE they happen, & head them off at the pass (from players getting old, to find cheaper alternatives, etc)... there are probably quite a few teams that have worse starting WR duo than PHI with brown & curtis... but they might not think they have a true WR1 on their roster (curtis isn't, brown might not be)... look how good PHI did when they briefly had a frontline WR better than freddie mitchell & todd pinkston...
20 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - malcolm kelly - the bucs have invested a lot in OL past few drafts (two 1sts & one second in past two years alone with davin joseph, arron sears & jeremy trueblood), they have a cast of thousands at QB, i think TE alex smith has potential... WR seems to be most glaring need, with an aging galloway (still playing at high level but i think he is 35+) & pretty much nobody else... maybe desean jackson? i think of gruden preferring big WRs (than again he may have inherited guys like irving fryar in PHI, tim brown in OAK & keyshawn in TB?)... galloway is of course not very big, but he is hulking compared to jackson...
limas sweed is a big WR, but his physicality has been questioned... RB could be a need with cadillac's career very uncertain at the moment, & with the team possibly having cause to be pessimistic given the devastating nature of the injury & his lengthy recovery... but graham played extremely well down the stretch, & this draft could be pretty deep in RBs (jonathan stewart still on the board in this mock, but would they replace one injured RB with potentially another?)... back to graham, given the fact that he previously seemed like a marginal player but did so well may lead gruden to think it is the OL, & they can continue to plug graham in there or somebody else (not necessarily a RB with 1st round pedigree), & be fine? on defense, the starters are pro bowler ronde barber & reclamation project philip buchanon, but how much longer will barber play... a CB of the future to groom would be nice, cason could be best left here... kelly is very hard to project... if he didn't have the checkered medical file & injury red flags, he could go as high as 1.11 to BUF... if he is indeed off some teams boards as reported by mayock, that is alarming, & he could easily tumble all the way out of the 1st round... yet, sometimes different teams can have a divergence of opinion on seemingly something as cut & dry as the condition of a prospects knees... this presumably has more to do with, not ability of medical teams to evaluate the state of his knees NOW & make a diagnosis, but to make a long term prognosis on what that means for the future... & also there must be differences among organizations in how risk tolerant (or averse) they are... so if teams differ on the staus of his knees, that might create a window where kelly still goes in the 1st round (possibly higher)... oh yeah, thomas could a long shot to go to PHI (with them liking the big uglies in the 1st) & still be on the board at this point, in which case i would give him to TB...interstitial commentary section (do not attempt to change the station, we have control of your computer)...
we could be coming into a mini-WR run territory, as three of the next four teams could be looking hard at WR... arguably redskins two biggest needs a big WR (sweed could fall in their laps) & DE, cowboys generally thought to be wanting to come out of round one with two of CB, RB & WR group, & titans two biggest needs DE (to reload after being depleted at position from defection of odom & laboy) and, you guessed it, a playmaking WR weapon to enable VYs develpment (even next team in line seahawks may be out both starting WRs, with hackett departing to CAR & branch possibly missing a significant portion of the year?)...
a corollary of this could be, IF a team, especially on the front end of this potential nasty mini-run (PHI, TB, WAS), identifies WR as primary need to be addressed, but doesn't like the value proposition at that point in the draft & is contemplating a move down, may not want to trade TOO far down, as teams near here could be lurking in the shadows, waiting to snipe the next best WR (some of the top prospects have dropped but now may start to leave the board fast & furious)...
back to regular programming...
21 - Washington Redskins - limas sweed - the WR mini-run continues... a big WR like sweed could help a lot in the red zone, deployed with smurfs moss & randle-el... WAS also linked with a DE a lot in mocks, as they could use a bookend with andre carter to put more heat on the very good QBs in the division (romo, mcnabb & manning)... carter may be underrated & has done well in stretches, but when was the last time the redskins had two good DEs (mann & manley?)... if they opt for DE, merling would be the obvious pick (or calais campbell if he is still on the board & merling is gone, in which case maybe donnybrook won't have to buy a new TV after all
)... it might have been in the always incisive draft countdown mock that i was reminded that WAS had a fairly good stop unit statistically last season, & arguably are underachiving more on offense & therefore need more help on THAT side of the ball... potentially they have issues at CB, as springs is ancient & former top 10 pick carlos rogers is returning from injury... some teams might not want a lot of money tied up in one position (& WAS already have aforementioned moss & randle-el), but getting a 1st round WR at pick 1.21 is a lot different than if he were top 5, so he should be very affordable, at least for a while... with some of their OL aging, that could be addressed here... albert is still on the board, & so is cherilus... a top 5 OT prospect or the top OG in the draft (albert could have versatility to be both) could easily leave the board at this juncture...22 - Dallas Cowboys - antoine cason - a lot of team have the cowboys taking mcfadden running mate felix jones here (or with next pick, & they could still get him there)... also WR is thought to be in the mix with either of the two 1sts, but some of the best ones are already off the board... i think cason will be more highly graded than other players, they need a nickle CB & henry is oft-injured... aqib talib could be an option, & brings return skills to the table... if DAL gets pac-man, i would probably change this pick to a RB... possibly felix jones, who also brings elite return skills (as well as a magic bag of tricks), stewart still hanging around (near an an area of the draft real estate where they passed on the similar physical specimen & athlete at the position in steven jackson few years ago), or WR, possibly early doucet... TO not young but playing at extremely high level, & they re-signed crayton, so maybe not as big a need as for RB depth (DAL also has other WRs on roster, & they reportedly like stanback, plus witten is a tremendous receiving weapon)... barber decisively beat out julius jones, but he has been in RBBC dating back to minnesota, & he has a violent collision-friendly running style which could lead to injury at some point...
23 - Pittsburgh Steelers - brandon albert - because bloom would want it that way (kirwan has cherilus going here, which could make a lot of sense, especially if albert is gone... not sure if that is case in kirwan's mock?)... if those guys aren't here, they have lost some LBs in recent years (porter, haggans), farrior is getting up there in years, so if groves were to drop, he might be attractive... he could play 3-4 LB in that alignment, but if tomlin wants to shift more to a 4-3 (or at least like to be able show both looks interchangably, like pats & cards), could play DE... but that theory could get blowed up because they just drafted LBs timmons & woodley bang-bang in the 1st & 2nd round last year...
24 - Tennessee Titans - desean jackson - the titans have one of the most mediocre WR positional groups in the league... VY could use some help, & the thought of young buying time with his feet while jackson scoots downfield & gets open could be scary to opposing secondaries... jackson could easily have gone higher, but he is tiny & may have work ethic issues... yet he has compelling, elite return skills (some scouts have said he is better than ted ginn), and that is a coveted trait in the post-devin hester NFL landscape... could be a game changer that helps them win a few more games a year, & could help tip the balance in the ultra-competitive AFC south... this could also help ease the sting of the pac-man fiasco & replace his pro bowl caliber return skills... also could be a case of replacing one me-guy with another, but jackson has nowhere close to the off-field & character red flags of the make it rain rain man, man
... while on the subject, TEN has in the past seemingly chosen to not weight character & off-field concerns as heaviliy as some other teams (not sure if this should be attributed to floyd reese, fisher, or both?), IF they think a player can help them... most infamously with pac-man, but also in case of len-whale white, & even a stud like haynseworth, who has also made some extremely poor decisions on & off the field, has had his share of indiscretions, & probably has anger management issues (you want a nice DT? )... a guy like hardy could fit right into this equation, but i thought his issues were so creepy that i project him to fall out of the 1st round... & perhaps the titans learned their lesson with pac-man... DE is an obvious need with odom & laboy leaving, but haynesworth played like the best DT in football last season... unless signing a huge contract turns him into a fat, lazy slob, he single-handedly destroys the interior of OLs, & will make the job of whoever lines up at DE a whole lot easier... they still have kyle vanden bosch... also, like a pump action shotgun, they could reload in a later round... without referencing it, i don't think odom or laboy came from first two rounds even (both 3rds?)... if they are determined to get a DE here, merling is still on board in this mock (or calais campbell could be, depending what teams like MIN ((could take brohm?)) & WAS do)... maybe WR doesn't seem like titans style (i think dyson only 1st round WR in past decade?), but one of the architects of previous drafts, reese, is no longer around, so the past may not be the best indicator of the present & future in this case, in terms of organizational tendencies... & they have tried adding guys in later rounds (3-4-5... see roydell williams, paul williams, courtney roby, et al), but the throwing lower pedigree WRs against the wall and see what sticks, scattershotgun approach hasn't worked...25 - Seattle Seahawks - gosder cherilus - i think two other players that might be looked at here are local product jonathan stewart at RB & their pick of TE (dustin keller's workout was so impressive that he may have catapulted over fred davis for best receiving TE prospect in draft)... the seahawks did add the polarizing julius jones, as well as TJ duckett, to upgrade their RBs... stewart could be a big upgrade, if his toe is right... that will factor into the decision... on the other hand, SEA had some well documented problems with the OL last year, so if he has nowhere to run, maybe an OL makes more sense... they already added wahle from CAR in free agency... cherilus could be upgrade at RT for a few years, & has the feet & athleticism for a big man that he could be groomed as serial pro bowler & one of the best LTs of his generation (with orlando pace & jonathan ogden), walter jones... with better blocking & a healthy JJ (vs. damaged SA), the seahawks run game could be in good shape, & they could look for a TE in round 2 (if davis drops, or possibly carlson from notre dame, who might help the most in the run game, & more so than incumbent pollard, for who blocking has never been a strong suit)...
26 - Jacksonville Jaguars - phillip merling - he could be long gone, but if still there (or calais campbell if he drops) could address what has been a problem area for a few years... kenny phillips is highest graded safety, which could be a good fit, but not sure he would be ideal complement with reggie nelson?
27 - San Diego Chargers - kenny phillips - aqib talib could fill role of nickle CB, but phillips may carry a higher grade at this point, & he could be an upgrade at safety for the chargers... they can address the loss of michael "burner" turner later on in the draft... because the chargers have such a strong, balanced & deep roster, they can pick the BPA as they see him at that point, & could go in a number of directions for depth... gotta admit, this was one of the more difficult picks in the mock for me, with teams like DEN & PHI, who i don't have a strong sense of the direction they may be going in... if cherilus drops, smith might not be able to resist adding maybe one of the last blue chip OT prospects, & stockpile at the critically important OL position...
28 - Dallas Cowboys - felix jones - if the cowboys get pac-man, i would change cason to jones in that spot, & put early doucet here... but for now, i'll go with cason there & jones here... he could be underrated as he was overshadowed by an extremely gifted runner in mcfadden... he could not be as good as mcfadden, & still be very good... while some scouts question whether he could carry the load, it is a moot point with barber... like jones, barber was used to being in a rotation with maroney in college... if cowboys are confident they can grab a RB replacement in a later round in what may be a deep draft class at the position, they could opt for WR like doucet... manningham & hardy have issues that may have knocked them out of the 1st (doucet could drop to early second himself)... DAL traded one of two 1st rounders to CLE last year which the browns used to take quinn (in which they recouped CLE's 1st this year)... if the price is right, they would be excellently positioned for a glitch in the matrix moment with a repeat, to a team looking to move up from the top of the second to the bottom of the first, & grab brohm (if he is still there) or flacco... all the teams at top of round one that considered a QB but passed (maybe MIA, ATL, KC, BAL), may want to make a pre-emptive move if they don't think they can remain passive & hope their prospect falls to them... DAL is the only team in the 1st round with two selections, & would be enabled to make this kind of a move...
29 - San Francisco 49ers - early doucet - the two biggest needs could be OL & DL... larry allen is retiring or moving on, kwame brown left for OK (though they didn't want to keep him), bryant young rode into the sunset, marques douglas in free agency... not sure what OL or DL i would give them at this point... maybe they trade down a little, as they have a few holes to fill (trading down is an option for a few teams around here, as SD & GB have pretty balanced rosters without a lot of glaring weaknesses, & could afford to do it, & DAL has the extra 1st rounder to bargain with... this is coupled with the fact that 3-4 teams could be jockeying to get into these spots to scoop up a QB, brohm if he drops, flacco, henne)... if kenny phillips dropped, he would form a great safety tandem with michael lewis, & NFC west has some dangerous WRs (holt, fitzgerald & boldin)... Adding mike martz as OC with one of the most motley WR crews in the NFL (bruce helps, but he was a ram when the were the LOS ANGELES rams) is like being all dressed up for the prom & having nowhere to go... hardy is still here, & would be very dangerous red zone weapon, but martz seems to prefer quicker WRs capable of running precise routes in his timing-based passing attack... if doucet isn't there, manningham has some similarities to bruce in terms of physical stature, athleticism & skill set, & he could be mentored by bruce & steeped in martz's system by a master of it for a few years.
30 - Green Bay Packers - brian brohm - april fools... april fools again... i'm not kidding... why not add depth to a critically important position... the packers used to stock up at the position even when favre was around... rodgers isn't proven physically & brohm might be better iin a few years, with maturation & development... its not like rodgers was a #1 overall pick at the position... he fell, far (like quinn), so some other teams weren't sold on him (the teams that skipped over him didn't have a need, not an indictment on him, but it didn't appear a lot of teams tried to trade UP for him, which might be)... i thought rodgers acquited himself well in limited chance last year, but it would be a smart pick to have insurance at a position that had a lot of turnover last year around the league due to injury, at a position that might be most important on the field... & brohm looked likke he might have been taken as high as top 5-10 this time last year... more likely, ANOTHER team looking to get QB could trade into this spot, & GB could still maybe get QB insurance a few picks later, if they want to... jonathan stewart could be a STEAL at this point (or for NYG with next pick)...
31 - New England - forfeited (spygate)
32 - New York Giants - dustin keller - maybe 2nd LB off the board (keith rivers went all the way back in top 10)... jerrod mayo, or i seem to see connor in this spot a lot... i also see phillips here, with gibril wilson gone, but if phillips is gone, safety, value on the board dictates they wait... WR could be looked at, toomer is ancient, burress was hurt chronically last year & shockey is hurt a lot & it is unclear if he is in the team's future plans... steve smith did flash promise towards end of season & in super bowl run, but he looks like a natural WR2... another way to give help is to add maybe the most athletic TE in the draft, with most upside as a WR... it is a rare 1st round without a TE... the team was decimated at CB last year, too, so aqib talib could get a look if he falls this far...
edit/ADD - shockey is hurt a lot, may not have a long career, & there seem to be some questions about the mutual feelings of shockey & NYG organization with each other? (end edit)
on the bubble, by position...
QB - flacco & henne
RB - stewart
WR - hardy, manningham, caldwell
TE - fred davis
OT - sam baker
OG - ?
C - nobody
DT - kentwan balmer
DE - lawrence jackson
LB - connor, jerrod mayo, curtis lofton
S - nobody
CB - talib, reggie smith (S/CB tweener), brandon flowers
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Very nice start. I like the Gholston pick to the Raiders. Haven't seen him going there in any I have seen so far.
for stopping at 10 (kidding). Bills fan here and was looking forward to see who you thought the Bills were gonna take. Alot have M.Kelly going here, but the guy seems to be fading. Maybe DRC?
:X I could see Clady falling, and mocked accordingly with my first effort. I could also see him at 5 like so many have said. Clady lacks the versatility to be broken in as a guard or seasoned at RT, but Gaither could likely be moved to the other side. Hmm... or Clady might not really be OL2 like so many assume. Anyway Bob, good start and good reading. I look forward to your to the rest. 
Your opinion of matt ryan seems contradictory. You're not sure if he's a franchise qb and yet he's cleary better than any other qb in the draft? So are you saying that in your opinion there aren't any franchise qbs in this year's draft?
Your opinion of matt ryan seems contradictory. You're not sure if he's a franchise qb and yet he's cleary better than any other qb in the draft? So are you saying that in your opinion there aren't any franchise qbs in this year's draft?
Your opinion of matt ryan seems contradictory. You're not sure if he's a franchise qb and yet he's cleary better than any other qb in the draft? So are you saying that in your opinion there aren't any franchise qbs in this year's draft?
Your opinion of matt ryan seems contradictory. You're not sure if he's a franchise qb and yet he's cleary better than any other qb in the draft? So are you saying that in your opinion there aren't any franchise qbs in this year's draft?
)... i was speaking more to, IF THE FALCONS think he is a franchise QB, i think they take him... whether he actually is or not i'm not sure... based on some recent things i heard mayock say (who i respect A LOT) about ryan's prospects & projection, i'm starting to think increasingly that ATL will find him a franchise QB (to be more precise, that he has that kind of potential)... if it sounds like i am qualifying things a lot, i am, & that is easy for me to do... in war rooms, front offices must be decisive... but for myself, i am cautious in assigning the label, actual franchise signal caller...in recent classes, i think russell might be, but not sure... i think VY & cutler could be, but jury somewhat out... if i go back a little further, palmer to me is unequivocally a franchise QB... that is sort of hindsight... i could probably give you a better example of a franchise QB who hasn't become completely established like palmer, but is in process of breaking out (rothlisberger?)... i can say i was a bit more confident in palmer's prospects THEN (preceding his draft), than ryan NOW... to answer in a different way, while it may seem contradictory, clearly it is possible to be best of class, but not a lock to be franchise QB... maybe i phrased that confusingly in reserving for myself a difference in meaning between calling a QB franchise in palmer pedigree sense, & in other of having the potential, but a case where scouts are more divided...i think brohm could be a franchise QB (in brees mold, to use a comp player i think bloom did)... don't have enough of a feel yet for flacco & henne... nobody else after those guys excites me too much, & i think the rest of the field has a lot of ??? in their game...* another reason to like ryan, citing what was for me a typically cogent & incisive point by mayock... a potentially big strike against ryan (one of the few, i think), is a high number of INTs last season... mayock made the point that he may have been trying to do too much, working with WRs with a lower talent level that weren't getting a lot of separation... for instance, almost certainly roddy white & michael jenkins would be better than anybody he has worked with previously, if he ends up going to ATL...a good QB won't throw his teammates under the bus, & i haven't heard ryan do any thing like that in public interviews (i would almost consider that a red flag that QB was a me guy & could have leadership issues if i heard that)... no idea what he said in private interviews, but since he seems like a good kid with high character, imo it would probably be in keeping & consistent with that for him to not have thrown his teammates under the bus even THERE...the more i'm hearing about his intangibles, he sounds more & more like the anti-vick, which i think would be appealing to blank... not sure how much pull if any he has in war room...
if they don't get skill position player, other than OL, DL & LB could use some attention... shanahan has tried repeatedly in recent seasons to throw free agents at DL problem with littel to show for it... he drafted jarvis moss in 1st, who flashed promise before injury, dumerville (who has been a good pass rusher) & crowder, who the jury is still out on... harvey, who i have going to DET, could be very attractive... he could be reunited with former national championship teammate of moss...
