Strength of Schedual analysis (1 Viewer)

[PocketPasser]

I've used SOS to my benefit in selecting who start in the past. While not a 100% (what is) it's helped more than hurt. So I thought, can I use this to analyze good defenses? My premise was, if this is an estimate of the points the offense can score, can I turn that around to estimate the points the defense will give up? While there is probably a way to do this simply, I decided to brute force it. Basically, I took the series of matixes (QB, RB, WR etc) of teams by weeks in the SOS article and summed their values. Then I started a second matrix of teams by weeks and moved the offensive score for a week/team into the defence team block.

Example. In USOS, week 1, Arizona plays SF. ARZ scores a 94.3 on offense, SF scores a 66.2.

So, in my transposed matrix, ARZ would get a 66.2 for defense, SF would get a 94.3. I worked this out for all teams for 3 weeks. ARZ was always getting a 66.2, SF a 94.3, and all other teams the same score they had for week 1 thru week 3. I stopped there. At week 3.

Ok, either my methodology is wrong, or there is an artifact in the SOS calculations that creates this.

I'm not trashing SOS, as I said, I've used it sucessfully in the past. Just curious why my attempts to reverse it judge relative DT strength seems unsucessful. If you are interested in the rankings I got from this for the first 2 weeks (week 3 starts byes, and remember, each week I got the same value) here they are:

Dal 113.6

Sea 116.4

Chi 116.8

Den 125

TB 125.2

NYG 125.6

Ind 127.2

Phi 127.6

KC 129

Was 130.6

Pit 131.2

Ari 132.4

Bal 133.6

Car 135.6

SD 137.4

Cin 138.2

Jac 138.2

NE 139.8

Det 141.8

Atl 142

Buf 145.6

Hou 146.8

Mia 149.4

NYJ 149.4

Oak 150.6

GB 151.1

NO 151.6

Ten 155.2

Cle 157.4

StL 165.4

Min 168.6

SF 188.6

 

[AB in DC]

I think this is what you missed:

The “2006” Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents for this season.

Notice that it shows the average PA, not the expected PA in any given week.So SF's defense will average 94.3 fppg allowed over the course of a season, not that it is expected to give up 94.3 fps against Arizona specifically.