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Stud or Dud? (1 Viewer)

MCguidance

Footballguy
I was thinking that this could be a decent place to pick a guy and name him either a stud or a dud. A guy like Steven Jackson is pretty polarizing, many feel as if he does not justify his top 5 ranking, while others think he is fantasy gold as long as he's upright and running. It's hard to define what makes them either a stud or dud, so in this instance I figure we will go with whether they justify their ADP. If that's not enough of a criteria, please name a statistically validated and more prominent threshold. I am guessing we should also say assume no injury, but if you think he is a dud because you legitimately feel he will be injured, please provide that information.

A list of guys to consider:

Steven Jackson

LT

Slaton

Brian Westbrook

Reggie Bush

Moreno

Barber

TO

Ocho Cinco

Braylon Edwards

Please feel free to list your own if you like, reasons why, or just simply SJax = dud

 
Steven Jackson a stud if healty

LT -he will have 1100 yards rushing 60 catches for 700 yrds 13 totol tds

Slaton-he will drop off from last year

Brian Westbrook-1000 yrds rushing 75 catches for 850 yrds 12 tds

Reggie Bush - this guy just cant finish hell he can hardly get started

Moreno-will suprise a few 900 yrds rushing 30 catches 250 yrds 8 tds

Barber - one of my biggest bust felix jones will out perform him this yr.

TO- I see 70 catches 950 yrds 7 tds

Ocho Cinco- bounce back year for ocho 89 catches 1200 yrds 12 tds

Braylon Edwards-another bounce back player 100 catches 1250 yrds 14 tds

Anthony Gonzo- 80 catches 1000 yrds 9 tds

BIG SLEEPER- James Davis

MOST OVERRATED-RBS-Chris Jhonnson and MJD

WRS-Calvin Johnnson and T.O

QBS-Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler

I am not saying these players wont have a ok year I just think there overvalued in drafts. And will let fantasy owners down

 
Steven Jackson a stud if healty

LT -he will have 1100 yards rushing 60 catches for 700 yrds 13 totol tds

Slaton-he will drop off from last year



Brian Westbrook-1000 yrds rushing 75 catches for 850 yrds 12 tds

Reggie Bush - this guy just cant finish hell he can hardly get started

Moreno-will suprise a few 900 yrds rushing 30 catches 250 yrds 8 tds

Barber - one of my biggest bust felix jones will out perform him this yr.

TO- I see 70 catches 950 yrds 7 tds



Ocho Cinco- bounce back year for ocho 89 catches 1200 yrds 12 tds

Braylon Edwards-another bounce back player 100 catches 1250 yrds 14 tds

Anthony Gonzo- 80 catches 1000 yrds 9 tds

BIG SLEEPER- James Davis

MOST OVERRATED-RBS-Chris Jhonnson and MJD

WRS-Calvin Johnnson and T.O

QBS-Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler

I am not saying these players wont have a ok year I just think there overvalued in drafts. And will let fantasy owners down
Ok so the bolded guys are going to be studly this year then, no? Thanks for taking the time to answer, it's really helpful.85, Westy, Braylon studs; Barber dud, and Slaton in between, but maybe a dud compared to his ADP

 
Steven Jackson a stud if healty

LT -he will have 1100 yards rushing 60 catches for 700 yrds 13 totol tds

Slaton-he will drop off from last year



Brian Westbrook-1000 yrds rushing 75 catches for 850 yrds 12 tds

Reggie Bush - this guy just cant finish hell he can hardly get started

Moreno-will suprise a few 900 yrds rushing 30 catches 250 yrds 8 tds

Barber - one of my biggest bust felix jones will out perform him this yr.

TO- I see 70 catches 950 yrds 7 tds



Ocho Cinco- bounce back year for ocho 89 catches 1200 yrds 12 tds

Braylon Edwards-another bounce back player 100 catches 1250 yrds 14 tds

Anthony Gonzo- 80 catches 1000 yrds 9 tds

BIG SLEEPER- James Davis

MOST OVERRATED-RBS-Chris Jhonnson and MJD

WRS-Calvin Johnnson and T.O

QBS-Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler

I am not saying these players wont have a ok year I just think there overvalued in drafts. And will let fantasy owners down
Ok so the bolded guys are going to be studly this year then, no? Thanks for taking the time to answer, it's really helpful.85, Westy, Braylon studs; Barber dud, and Slaton in between, but maybe a dud compared to his ADP
I think these are the guys that could be studs I do think if SJax stays healthy he will be the #1 over all RB this year.Brees

Manning

Brady

Rodgers- these are your qb leaders

overated qbs

Warner

Cutler

Romo

another qb that could finish in the top 3 if healthy is Shaub

mid to late round QB value

Palmer ,,Hasselbeck,Garrard,Edwards,Farvre

 
over-rated:

QBs - none

RBs - Turner, Pierre Thomas, Kevin Smith, Derrick Ward

WRs - Eddie Royal, Roy Williams

TEs - Witten

under-rated:

QBs - Garrard, Ryan

RBs - Brandon Jacobs, LT

WRs - Holt, Houshmandzadeh

TEs - Gates

 
Braylon actually wasn't that bad last year. I know he dropped a ton of balls, but he went through a slew of quarterbacks, and played a rough schedule. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are going to be part of his schedule regardless, but games against Indy, Tennessee and the NFC East is a much rougher draw than they have this year.

Edwards started the season out against a Dallas team that was firing on all cylinders early last year, then Pittsburgh and Baltimore. He caught eight passes for 73 yards combined in those three games. He then went 3/22/1, 5/154/1, 4/58, 2/64, against CIN, NYG, WAS and JAX, and wrapped it up with 4/86/1 against Baltimore before Anderson went out. That's much more respectable.

In summary, that's 26 catches for 457 yards and 3 TDs against Dallas (#5 against the pass), Pittsburgh (#1), Washington (#7), Baltimore (#2) twice, the Giants (#8), Jacksonville (#24), and Cinci (#15). That's about the hardest imaginable schedule, and he projects to 52 catches for 914 yards and 6 TDs against it.

As for the quarterbacking this year, though, it looks fairly likely that it will be Quinn, who played three games last year. The first week they played together, Edward laid a one catch egg, while Quinn completed 23 passes. Of those passes, 13 went to the tight ends, and seven more to the running backs. That's more of an indictment of Quinn, or the coaches' confidence in Quinn, than Edwards. Note that 10 of those passes went to Kellen Winslow, too. And their next game together, Edwards caught 8 for 105. The following week, Edwards had 5 for 85 in a game started by Quinn and finished by Anderson.

But wait there's more. Anderson got hurt, too, in his first start back from injury. Enter Ken Dorsey. Who threw for 374 yards total in just over three games. How is Edwards supposed to score with that kind of QB play? And against Indy, Tennessee, Philly, and Cinci, to boot. In Dorsey's first full game, Edwards again struggled with his new QB, and caught just 3 of his 14 targets. Ouch. But the next game, Edwards managed a 5 catch (on 5 targets no less) 102 yard performance against Philly. And the following week, he caught 4 of 7 targets from Dorsey for a miserable 32 yards, before Dorsey went out and was replaced by Bruce Gradkowski. The same Bruce Gradkowski who, in the final game against Pittsburgh, attempted 16 passes and completed a grand total of 5 of them. For 18 yards. Total. In the whole game. And threw two picks.

Oh, and did I mention how brutal the schedule was against those teams with all the QB changes? They played against Denver (26th, but Quinn's first game), Buffalo (#13), Houston (#17), Indy (#6), Tennessee (#9), Philly (#3), Cinci (#15), and the Steelers (#1).

Just to drive that point home, Cleveland played ten games against the top ten pass defenses in the league last year. And six of those were against the top 5. They played thirteen against the top half of the league, and zero against the bottom third. The average defensive ranking of the teams they faced in the first half? Fourth. The average overall? Ninth.

This year, the Browns still play Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. But they also play five games against the bottom seven pass defenses in the league from last year (KC, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, San Diego) and only one non-division game against a top ten pass defense from last year (Oakland, #10).

Their schedule is much easier. Their quarterback situation should be much more stable. Edwards is the only guy in town. Did Edwards drop a lot of balls last year? Sure. But he had everything go against him last year, too. Which seems more reasonable, that Edwards had a completely fluky year in which he caught 16 TDs in 2007 and will never do better than the 3 TDs he caught in 2008, or that Edwards is an extremely talented guy who had trouble last year because of a ridiculously tough schedule and a slew of quarterback changes?

 
Overrated:

QB: Romo / Schaub (mostly because of injury concerns) / Rodgers (just being a contrarian; he deserves hype, but I think the expectations are getting a little out of hand)

RB: MJD (& I even own him) / SJax (even if healthy)

WR: Fitz / Royal

Underrated:

QB: Eli (yeah, I know; expectations are so low, it won't take much to exceed them) / Delhomme (regression is in order; running game comes back to the pack, passing game ticks upwards)

RB: Gore (in my leagues, he's lasting too long; great value) / Beanie Wells (I choose to believe)

WR: TJH / Cotchery

BTW, of the guys I list as Underrated, the only one I own is Wells

 
Steven Jackson - Dud

LT - Stud

Slaton - Dud

Brian Westbrook - Push

Reggie Bush - Stud

Moreno - Push

Barber - Stud

TO - Stud

Ocho Cinco - DUD Child Please DUD Kiss The Baby DUD

Braylon Edwards - Stud

 
over-rated:QBs - noneRBs - Turner, Pierre Thomas, Kevin Smith, Derrick WardWRs - Eddie Royal, Roy WilliamsTEs - Wittenunder-rated:QBs - Garrard, RyanRBs - Brandon Jacobs, LTWRs - Holt, HoushmandzadehTEs - Gates
I agree on Ward, though expectations seemed to have been lowered around here lately.About Kevin Smith, what overrated? Isnt he a three down back? I think he may do well if only for sheer touches and opportunity - thoughts?
 
I'll add more, but for now, green = stud, red = dud

Steven Jackson

LT

Slaton

Brian Westbrook

Reggie Bush PPR other

Moreno

Barber

TO

Ocho Cinco

Braylon Edwards

 
Stud:

LaDainian Tomlinson - We really have very little reason to suspect that Tomlinson is slowing down. We've seen him succeed with Michael Turner getting lots of carries behind him. Yet Tomlinson is going closer to #10 than #1. In a redraft, I'm buying.

Ronnie Brown - 33 receptions, 1160 total yards, 10 TDs, and another passing TD in his first year back from injury. Now, his only backup is 32 and talking about retiring next year, and he's a year removed from injury. I understand that a big part of his production came in the New England game. Trust me. I watched it. But his floor this year is 30 receptions, 1100 yards and 8 TDs, while his ceiling is substantially higher - for example, he had 39 receptions in 2007, in just seven games. Back then, he was a mid first round pick, on a terrible team. Now the Dolphins have improved substantially, and are primarily a running team. For someone who's getting drafted late second or third, he seems like he should earn back his draft slot, or close to it, but with upside to be worth a first rounder.

Beanie Wells - He's an incredible value late in drafts. He looks like he could be a good RB2 for your stretch run in the playoffs, but he's getting drafted in the range of your RB4. I think you have to draft him, because as cheaply as you can get him in the draft, the guys who are drafting him are going to fall in love with owning him and want more than what they could have gotten at the same pick they took him.

Other possibilities: James Davis, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice (although it's getting close to the end of his value), Cedric Benson, Derrick Ward

Dud:

Maurice Jones-Drew - I guess I don't understand how a player who has never been a starting running back can be a top 3 pick. I don't think he's a terrible pick, and I would probably trade out of an early pick if I could. I still think he's good, just not top ten.

Chris Johnson - He's an excellent player, but I can't help but get the feeling that Tennessee overachieved last year. He's also splitting carries and losing goal line carries. I have no doubt he's a valuable player, but he's being drafted around where his upside is. He's being drafted in the top ten and sometimes top 5, and that seems a little overrated. Seems more like a second round guy to me.

Pierre Thomas - Another committee back, with a TD guy behind him, on a passing team. And now he's dinged up going into the season? No thanks.

Tim Hightower - 10 TDs last year. That should more than make up for his 399 yards rushing, especially now that he's starting week 1. But those 399 yards rushing came on 143 carries. Around his ADP, you can get better RBBC backs who are less likely to be completely replaced by the end of the season. Pass.

Other possibilities: Darren McFadden, LenDale White, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones

 
theJCdude said:
QBs- Schaub, Hasselback, Sanchez, Quinn, PalmerRBs- Benson, Thomas Jets, D. Brown, J. DavisWRs- DJax, Holt, Henry, Morgan, Berrian, EdwardsTEs- Shockey, V. Shian, Finley, Celek, Z. Thomas, Keller, HeapThere's a few...
These are studs or duds?
 
How can we not mention Ryan Grant?

Anybody who rushes at about a 4.5 clip, in an extremely potent offense with a good OLine, and is an extremely solid bet to get 300+ carries...should not be going in the mid 3rd of a 12 teamer.

Just think, 1200 yards last season...with no training camp, and nagging injuries for about half of the season. What happens this year?

 
How can we not mention Ryan Grant? Anybody who rushes at about a 4.5 clip, in an extremely potent offense with a good OLine, and is an extremely solid bet to get 300+ carries...should not be going in the mid 3rd of a 12 teamer.Just think, 1200 yards last season...with no training camp, and nagging injuries for about half of the season. What happens this year?
I only just picked a handful of guys - but Ryan Grant represents an interesting case. I think he has a very good shot at being in the top 10 this year, and I drafted him in the 4th round (4.08). He isn't the most dynamic runner, but runs downhill and runs very hard. I think his pass catching has some people worried in PPR leagues, but I think he is more than adequate in that department. In 2007 he was doing well, but the GBP coaching staff sees something in Brandon Jackson that they like in obvious passing situations. I rate him as a possible stud, as long as health is not an issue, and it seems that he is much healthier this year than last. As you said, that offense could prove great and he may have a lot of opportunities to score.
 
Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson - We really have very little reason to suspect that Tomlinson is slowing down.
YPC the last 3 seasons:2006: 5.22007: 4.72008: 3.8As a Chargers fan, I love LT, and I still think he'll have a productive year as a function of the offense that he plays in, but anyone who watches a lot of Chargers' games can see that he's not the same back he was. Again, not saying he'll bust, and I do think that LT at 85% is better than most other backs in the league at 100%, but he is slowing down -- there's no question.
 
TS Garp said:
bostonfred said:
Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson - We really have very little reason to suspect that Tomlinson is slowing down.
YPC the last 3 seasons:2006: 5.22007: 4.72008: 3.8As a Chargers fan, I love LT, and I still think he'll have a productive year as a function of the offense that he plays in, but anyone who watches a lot of Chargers' games can see that he's not the same back he was. Again, not saying he'll bust, and I do think that LT at 85% is better than most other backs in the league at 100%, but he is slowing down -- there's no question.
As a Patriots fan, I root against the Chargers. I don't own Tomlinson in any league, I don't plan on drafting him because I've already completed what is probably my last draft, and I'm not looking to trade for him any time soon. But I think you're cherry picking stats. His YPC in his 8 year career:2001: 3.62002: 4.52003: 5.32004: 3.92005: 4.32006: 5.22007: 4.72008: 3.8I don't think anyone should expect him to put up his 2006 numbers again, so we can throw that 5.2 YPC out. And his 2007 YPC was better than his 2005, so it's not like he's steadily declining. He had toe and groin injuries last year, and the line was dinged up pretty good, too. That seems like a more reasonable explanation for the dropoff to 3.8 than the fact that he was 29 years old.
 
People are gonig to line up to call me insane, but...

Julius Jones(SEA) scores more fantasy points than Michael Turner(ATL).

 
Yours

Steven Jackson- Stud for sure

LT- Stud

Slaton- Dud

Brian Westbrook- If healthy Stud

Reggie Bush - Will shut his critics the hell up this year

Moreno- If he wasnt in a Patriot type offense I would say stud, he will be serviceable depending on the opponent

Barber- Stud, Felix who?

TO- Dud

Ocho Cinco- Stud

Braylon Edwards-Stud

Mine

Deangelo Williams- Stud

Caddalac Williams-Dud

Clinton Portis-Stud

Brandon Marshall-Dud

Donnie Avery-stud

Jeremy Shockey-Stud

Matt Hasselbeck-Stud

Any Browns QB-Dud

 
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I like the Avery stud call - so you think Bulger will have time to throw? That line is definitely better than last year, just curious as to how many targets and catches you think Avery might see?

 
TS Garp said:
bostonfred said:
Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson - We really have very little reason to suspect that Tomlinson is slowing down.
YPC the last 3 seasons:2006: 5.22007: 4.72008: 3.8As a Chargers fan, I love LT, and I still think he'll have a productive year as a function of the offense that he plays in, but anyone who watches a lot of Chargers' games can see that he's not the same back he was. Again, not saying he'll bust, and I do think that LT at 85% is better than most other backs in the league at 100%, but he is slowing down -- there's no question.
As a Patriots fan, I root against the Chargers. I don't own Tomlinson in any league, I don't plan on drafting him because I've already completed what is probably my last draft, and I'm not looking to trade for him any time soon. But I think you're cherry picking stats. His YPC in his 8 year career:2001: 3.62002: 4.52003: 5.32004: 3.92005: 4.32006: 5.22007: 4.72008: 3.8I don't think anyone should expect him to put up his 2006 numbers again, so we can throw that 5.2 YPC out. And his 2007 YPC was better than his 2005, so it's not like he's steadily declining. He had toe and groin injuries last year, and the line was dinged up pretty good, too. That seems like a more reasonable explanation for the dropoff to 3.8 than the fact that he was 29 years old.
I know his YPC have gone up and down over his career, but I think it's fair to look at his last 3 seasons. Also, when you consider that the Chargers had one of the best passing games in football last season, which kept teams from stacking the line and opened up a lot of running lanes, and LT still couldn't average more than 4.0 YPC, you have to take note. But, again, my assessment is mainly based on watching every game he's played in -- he's still great and he should have a productive fantasy season, but he's in decline.
 
Steven Jackson=stud if healthy

LT=see SJAX

Slaton=stud

Brian Westbrook=see SJAX

Reggie Bush=dud

Moreno=dud

Barber= goal line monster/stud

TO=dud

Ocho Cinco=stud

Braylon Edwards=dud

 
I usually have a couple guys Im very confident in exploding onto the scene each year, but I only have 1 this year.

My 1 guarantee of a stud this year who will completely destroy his ADP this year is:

DeSean Jackson

...I actually cant believe he hasnt been mentioned once yet. Glad I got him like 78th overall

 
I usually have a couple guys Im very confident in exploding onto the scene each year, but I only have 1 this year.My 1 guarantee of a stud this year who will completely destroy his ADP this year is:DeSean Jackson...I actually cant believe he hasnt been mentioned once yet. Glad I got him like 78th overall
You better hope Mike Vick or Kevin Kolb are not the QBs trying to get him the ball. McNabb spreads it around to begin with.
 
Fantasy Duds: All Cincy players. That Offensive Line is swiss cheese, Palmer is the glass man that makes it all tick. There are a lot of people on this site that think they got draft steals in guys like OCO, Palmer, and especially hilarious Henry (dude went in the 5th round). The Bengals are still the Bungles.

K Smith of the Lions, another bust player. (Lions are still the Lions)

Fantasy stud, and welcome back, LT2 to the elite realm for one last year.

 
OK, I'll try to call some shots here with no hedging.

Fantasy dud: Brett Favre. No, people don't think of him as a top option at QB anymore, but I think his stint in Minnesota will be a disaster and he'll be on IR before November.

Fantasy dud: Drew Brees. I think defenses will figure the Saints out and I still remember how slow they started in 2007. In fact, I also predict the Lions will upset the Saints in week 1 and make a lot of survivor pool players angry. I'm not saying Brees will be terrible, but he will not justify where he was taken. Of the big three, he'll be the worst performer by far.

Fantasy "stud"-- Isaac Bruce. I put "stud" in quotes because I don't think he'll turn back the clock. But he will be a reliable, solid option in a start 3 WR league and provide incredible value for wherever he was taken. I think Bruce will hurt defenses who will be forced to stop Gore and be motivated by an improved team with a real shot to win a weak division.

Fantasy dud-- any Buccaneer. However low your expectations are for a Buc, they will disappoint. Winslow will be on fantasy waiver wires by mid-season. There will be threads in the SP with titles like "Gonna Cut Bryant-- Wasting A Spot."

:thanks: :rant: :thanks: :shock:

 
"Studs and duds" are selective. For this post, stud= way outperforming ADP. Dud= under performing ADP.

Studs

Ryan Grant

Big Ben

Matt Hasslebeck

Marques Colston

Martellus Bennett

Duds

SJAX

LT2

M. Lynch

R. White

 
People are gonig to line up to call me insane, but...Julius Jones(SEA) scores more fantasy points than Michael Turner(ATL).
Youre not insane, youre ####### ######ed. Answer 1 question: are you walked on a leash?
Turner wk 1: 2pts Total: 2pts.JJones wk1: 19pts Total: 19pts
Turner wk 2: 13pts Total: 15pts.JJones wk2: 8pts Total: 27pts
Turner wk3: 8pts Total: 23ptsJJones wk3: 12pts Total: 39pts
 

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