David Dodds
Administrator
Congrats again to everyone still alive in this contest. Amazing job to get this far. One of you is going to win $25,000. Good luck to all.
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- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
C
CrossEyed
Guest
I would think it would be pretty tough to get eliminated when you get over 33% of the points you need to stay in from just one player.
Otis
Footballguy
Bob N. Weaver
Footballguy
(0.108*4002) - (0.142*3000) = 6 unfortunate LT2 owners!
Cool calculation, but the percentage only goes to 1 decimal place. The number of unfortunate LT onwers coudl easily be 0.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Guess Ben Watson did move that line up a lot...almost 20 points from Drinen's post...WOW!
171 this week, hope I can keep rolling...220+ at the top this week...gotta be a record.
171 this week, hope I can keep rolling...220+ at the top this week...gotta be a record.
joffer
Footballguy
approximately 108
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Bob N. Weaver
Footballguy
Point taken. Recalculation shows an LT2 elimination range of 3 to 9 people for week 8, but I know it wasn't zero.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I've isolated above the zeroes for the upcoming week. I included backup QBs except Garrard, but not players at other positions if there is a chance they will play. I may have missed one or two, but no one big.With 33% exiting week 9, the high %OWN guys above are more important this week than in any other week. My strategy was to hope to get to this week free of byes, and it's worked out. My only certain zero is Simms.Doug Drinen said:
As a Gore (74.5 %OWN) and Watson (74.0 %OWN) owner, it would be huge if they have a down week and my other guys at those positions go off big. That kind of advantage would go a long way toward making it in ahead of 75% of the remaining contestants.
Also, I think the QB position is critical this week. Ownership of any two of Delhomme (28.2 %OWN), Simms (29.5 %OWN), Warner/Leinart (29.1 %OWN combined), McNabb (7.4 %OWN - and he's been carrying these owners), and Culpepper (9.3 %OWN) is going to catch up to a lot of folks this week if their 3rd QB has an off week. It'll be very hard to survive a 1/3 cut with low points at QB. And I don't think much of anyone is going to survive this 1/3 cut if they own 3 QBs with zeroes this week (also including Hasselbeck, T Green, Pennington who are owned by lesser percentages).
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Bob N. Weaver
Footballguy
Nice work and I like your stategy.Morrency should play this week though, as Packers are not on bye.
I have Foster on bye only with other expected zeroes from Simms and VDavis.
C
CrossEyed
Guest
I think Morency was injured.
Bob N. Weaver
Footballguy
That bites. I thought he was a nice $1 wildcard and he just got over 100 yds. 
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
C
CrossEyed
Guest
I'm not happy either. He's helped me a couple of times in this contest.
I have SA and have basically scraped by so far hitting on QB Alex Smith and Norwood a few times and mid-priced WR talent. Would be nice to get him back asap.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
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#5 overall in week 8 with 211.6
LT is my horse banking on the whole ppr (almost went tiki)...
avg = 143.2
standard deviation = 32.6
95% confidence interval = 120.6 - 165.8 (i.e. i have a 95% likely hood of scoring between those two numbers based solely on the my previous 8 weeks' scores)
LT is my horse banking on the whole ppr (almost went tiki)...
avg = 143.2
standard deviation = 32.6
95% confidence interval = 120.6 - 165.8 (i.e. i have a 95% likely hood of scoring between those two numbers based solely on the my previous 8 weeks' scores)
Anyone else see this or am i imagining this
bryhamm
Footballguy
I see that they have Delhomme at 6.5, but I calculate 6.4 (7.4 pts for 149 yds passing and -1 pt for 1 int)
Couch Potato
Footballguy
7.45 to be accurate. So they round up, you round down. It makes sense they round up so they don't have people screamimg they lost the cut by a tenth due to rounding down.
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
Sigh. Eliminated with a 120.1.
But I would have been toast next week with no QB (Hasslebeck, Culpepper, Leinert), not to mention the loss of Jennings and Engram severely hampered my WRs.
Good luck to those remaining.
But I would have been toast next week with no QB (Hasslebeck, Culpepper, Leinert), not to mention the loss of Jennings and Engram severely hampered my WRs.
Good luck to those remaining.
simey
Footballguy
I have McNabb and Rivers, and Rivers has had better numbers in week 6 and 8.
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
Can't believe I'm still here. Went into monday night with 96, came out with over 130.
Could be in trouble next week with no reggie brown, lj smith, or akers. (yeah, thats alot of eagles, but they all screamed value to me... may be it was a bad move.)
And I'm still kicking myself for switching barlow and jones drew to chris brown and morrency the day of the deadline...
Glad to still be here though.
Could be in trouble next week with no reggie brown, lj smith, or akers. (yeah, thats alot of eagles, but they all screamed value to me... may be it was a bad move.)
And I'm still kicking myself for switching barlow and jones drew to chris brown and morrency the day of the deadline...
Glad to still be here though.
oso diablo
Footballguy
so you're saying it's bad to have Simms, Culpepper, and Delhomme? Looking for a miracle.Wondering, given the injury rate of QBs, whether we should pick 4 qbs and only 6 wrs. Or have some roster flexibility, which would certainly open much more variety in who is picked.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Adding Brooks and Bledsoe, 10 of the 32 opening day starters aren't starting week 9. It'll be really tough for you to survive a 33% cut without some very big games elsewhere. Good luck!oso diablo said:
EBF
Footballguy
Still alive and feeling somewhat optimistic about my squad:
Jake Delhomme
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Kevin Jones
Corey Dillon
Laurence Maroney
Frank Gore
Reggie Bush
Lee Evans
Muhsin Muhammad
Chris Henry
Isaac Bruce
Troy Williamson
Keenan McCardell
Antonio Bryant
Jason Witten
Jeremy Shockey
Jason Elam
Nate Kaeding
Chargers
Giants
I've been lucky to avoid major injuries thus far. I managed to survive Chris Henry's suspension and a pretty wicked week 7 bye nightmare. The thing I like about my team is that any one of the players has a realistic chance of having a good game. It would be very nice to have a guy like Tomlinson and LJ, but teams who spend a lot for studs are vulnerable if he has a bad game because, on average, they have inferior depth.
This week was a close call and I needed a late good game by Witten to survive the cut, but I've been pretty steady this season with a low of 122.9 and an average of 138.5. Things are going to get interesting with some brutal 33% cuts coming up.
Jake Delhomme
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Kevin Jones
Corey Dillon
Laurence Maroney
Frank Gore
Reggie Bush
Lee Evans
Muhsin Muhammad
Chris Henry
Isaac Bruce
Troy Williamson
Keenan McCardell
Antonio Bryant
Jason Witten
Jeremy Shockey
Jason Elam
Nate Kaeding
Chargers
Giants
I've been lucky to avoid major injuries thus far. I managed to survive Chris Henry's suspension and a pretty wicked week 7 bye nightmare. The thing I like about my team is that any one of the players has a realistic chance of having a good game. It would be very nice to have a guy like Tomlinson and LJ, but teams who spend a lot for studs are vulnerable if he has a bad game because, on average, they have inferior depth.
This week was a close call and I needed a late good game by Witten to survive the cut, but I've been pretty steady this season with a low of 122.9 and an average of 138.5. Things are going to get interesting with some brutal 33% cuts coming up.
videoguy505
Footballguy
Hmmm... rules say they should round 5s to the nearest even number. So 7.45=7.4 (7.55=7.6). Dunno what's going on there or with B. Johnson.Couch Potato said:7.45 to be accurate. So they round up, you round down. It makes sense they round up so they don't have people screamimg they lost the cut by a tenth due to rounding down.bryhamm said:John said:
dawgtrails
Footballguy
What kind of funky rule is that?7.45 is always, always rounded up to 7.5.Hmmm... rules say they should round 5s to the nearest even number. So 7.45=7.4 (7.55=7.6). Dunno what's going on there or with B. Johnson.Couch Potato said:7.45 to be accurate. So they round up, you round down. It makes sense they round up so they don't have people screamimg they lost the cut by a tenth due to rounding down.bryhamm said:John said:
Has nothing to do with even and/or odd numbers.
videoguy505
Footballguy
Read the rules: http://footballguys.com/06contestrules.htm, Scoring subsection, 10/11 update.Then read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rounding#Round-to-even_methodWhat kind of funky rule is that?7.45 is always, always rounded up to 7.5.Hmmm... rules say they should round 5s to the nearest even number. So 7.45=7.4 (7.55=7.6). Dunno what's going on there or with B. Johnson.
Has nothing to do with even and/or odd numbers.
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dawgtrails
Footballguy
cool. thanksI never heard of that beforeRead the rules: http://footballguys.com/06contestrules.htm, Scoring subsection, 10/11 update.Then read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rounding#Round-to-even_methodWhat kind of funky rule is that?7.45 is always, always rounded up to 7.5.Hmmm... rules say they should round 5s to the nearest even number. So 7.45=7.4 (7.55=7.6). Dunno what's going on there or with B. Johnson.
Has nothing to do with even and/or odd numbers.
hove
Footballguy
Figured I'd wait until the thread was on the 47th page before posting. 
Just adding that I'm absolutely floored that I'm still alive in this. 3 close weeks with byes for me - they've been pretty ugly this year with the compact schedule. Good luck to everyone still in this crazy thing.
Just adding that I'm absolutely floored that I'm still alive in this. 3 close weeks with byes for me - they've been pretty ugly this year with the compact schedule. Good luck to everyone still in this crazy thing.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I wasn't aware of the rounding rule. Thanks for that. Might be something affected owners should contact Drinen on if it makes a difference in being cut or not cut.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Sheesh, hit that pretty spot on, and people made quite a few posts stating that this was ludicrous after Drinen's initial cut post of 101+. I was doubtful myself it would creep that far on MNF, but forgot that Watson was so widely held.Next weeks 33% cut with this week's scoring would equate to a 126.5 cut line. May be a little lower if nobody goes off like they just did (at least the widely held players), but if you want to feel safe again going into week 10, you'll definitely want to be in the 130's.Hate to admit it, but my team is good, but also HIGHLY unlikely good enough to win the whole thing. I don't think I've come within 15 points of a cut so far, but I'm not going to have a week where I'm different enough to sepatate in the finals when I make it. I stated very early in this thread it takes one kind of team to have a high probability to make the finals, but another team completely different to win the finals. The winner will very probably have several "close calls" with byes and off weeks, but will also have an opportunity to put up some killer numbers when his team is on. Tough part is being lucky enough to survive the close calls, which kills a good number of those teams capable of differentiating in the end. I gave a friend of mine a lineup to use since he was too lazy to pick his own, and using the differentiation strategy and he got bounced in week 3, his only tough bye week (and I am WAAAAY to lazy to have been keeping up to see how he would have fared since). Oh well, I can take some consolation in that I have outlasted roughly 9000 other FBG members, now I just hope to keep it up for another few weeks!
my man otis
Footballguy
How about Mcnabb, simms and "i'll take jamie martin for $2, Bob"???Gotta hope for huge games from the rest of my team.
Got lucky last week with both Ds on a bye (duh), so maybe i'll get lucky again...
Made it through last week with only one QB, Plummer, who was the last person from my team that didn't contribute, but he picked a good week to start.
I have no byes this week and my only zero will be Engram. I like that I still have 3 starting QB's but after last week seeing the studs going off I am doubting myself because I really don't have any of the big name guys. Another week like last from the big guys and I could be in trouble.
I have no byes this week and my only zero will be Engram. I like that I still have 3 starting QB's but after last week seeing the studs going off I am doubting myself because I really don't have any of the big name guys. Another week like last from the big guys and I could be in trouble.
Count me as one who feels I am way too lucky to have made it this far. Unfortunately, I have a lot of the same players as a lot of other contestants, so I'm probably not going to win it all, but it's been a good ride so far. On a more positive note, I did have my highest score so far last week (167.5, I think)
Brett Favre $14
Philip Rivers $10
Aaron Brooks $17
Willie Parker $32
DeShaun Foster $28
Frank Gore $10
Jerious Norwood $ 2
Reggie Bush $22
Reggie Wayne $35
Eddie Kennison $22
Cedrick Wilson $ 5
Troy Williamson $ 4
Terry Glenn $13
Michael Clayton $ 9
Bobby Engram $ 4
Ben Watson $ 9
Vernon Davis $ 7
Stephen Gostkowski $ 1
Jason Hanson $ 1
New York Jets $ 2
Miami Dolphins $ 3
Brett Favre $14
Philip Rivers $10
Aaron Brooks $17
Willie Parker $32
DeShaun Foster $28
Frank Gore $10
Jerious Norwood $ 2
Reggie Bush $22
Reggie Wayne $35
Eddie Kennison $22
Cedrick Wilson $ 5
Troy Williamson $ 4
Terry Glenn $13
Michael Clayton $ 9
Bobby Engram $ 4
Ben Watson $ 9
Vernon Davis $ 7
Stephen Gostkowski $ 1
Jason Hanson $ 1
New York Jets $ 2
Miami Dolphins $ 3
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Player price %OWN %LIVE Carson Palmer 22 25.4 30.1 Philip Rivers 10 21.0 29.0 Chad Pennington 7 4.5 20.5 Willie Parker 32 44.0 32.2 Maurice Jones-Drew 2 5.3 31.9 Frank Gore 10 74.5 31.0 Thomas Jones 23 7.9 24.7 Willis McGahee 37 8.1 22.8 Greg Jennings 2 34.7 34.4 Terry Glenn 13 47.8 32.0 Joe Horn 16 14.3 30.4 Mark Clayton 6 9.4 25.2 Michael Clayton 9 27.5 25.1 Bobby Engram 4 8.4 21.1 Chris Chambers 39 6.6 16.4 Ben Watson 9 74.0 31.5 Bubba Franks 2 9.2 20.0 David Akers 2 18.3 28.4 Jason Hanson 1 11.6 23.5 Green Bay Packers 1 5.4 29.7 Miami Dolphins 3 19.8 25.1
So if I am understanding this properly, I am rooting for guys like Chambers, Jones-Drew, and Pennington to do well right? It would appear that I have a team that goes against the grain a bit, that's got to be a good thing. Just now starting to pay real attention to this.
So if I am understanding this properly, I am rooting for guys like Chambers, Jones-Drew, and Pennington to do well right? It would appear that I have a team that goes against the grain a bit, that's got to be a good thing. Just now starting to pay real attention to this.
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Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
That's correct, saber.
Guys like Palmer, Gore, Watson are owned by so many players that if they do well, the cutoff goes way up.
In order to raise your score above that of the pack, it's your "low %OWN" guys who will keep your team above the cutoff with good scores.
It's going to be interesting down the stretch to see what impact injuries play. If guys like Watson, Parker, Gore, Rudi miss a couple weeks, it's going to drive the cutoffs down and the owners not taking 0.0 scores from those guys will have an advantage.
Guys like Palmer, Gore, Watson are owned by so many players that if they do well, the cutoff goes way up.
In order to raise your score above that of the pack, it's your "low %OWN" guys who will keep your team above the cutoff with good scores.
It's going to be interesting down the stretch to see what impact injuries play. If guys like Watson, Parker, Gore, Rudi miss a couple weeks, it's going to drive the cutoffs down and the owners not taking 0.0 scores from those guys will have an advantage.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I suppose I'm in a pretty favorable situation since the guys I own that have low OWN% values are guys like Tiki Barber (~3%) and Chad Johnson (~3%), guys I don't really have to worry that they will put up decent numbers. I would be excited about Morency but he's hurt now.
I also have Favre (~8%) but he may not get used much if Peyton finishes the year strong.
I also have Favre (~8%) but he may not get used much if Peyton finishes the year strong.
sinatravolta
Footballguy
It's a good point that it could be an against the grain team that wins it all. But in my view it could also easily be a team comprised of a lot of commonly held players but that has no flaws and where some of the less-owned players on the team come through. So if guys like Gore and Watson and Parker and Glenn do well in the key 4 weeks, it may well be someone who owns all of them who wins. But it will be by a smaller margin, and they'll need to have a few of their lesser-owned players really get some good scores. So for example, my team has a lot of commonly held players, but I think I'm screwed not because of that alone, but instead because I have Simms who is obviously of no use, and I have Clayton who has been of little use, and guys like Galloway and Troupe have underperformed (why did I rely on the Tampa passing game so heavily of all things?
). I do have some not as commonly held players like Vick who help me. I'm sure there are teams out there that have a lot of commonly held players but still have everyone contributing and have a few guys that set them apart - and it's fairly likely that someone like that could win too.
Gamblor
Footballguy
Actually it can go about 3000! ways considering there are multiple prizes.Actually it can go about 3000 different ways-QG
Couch Potato
Footballguy
The theoretical value is $25,000/3,000=$8.33 based on 1st place alone, assuming all entries have an equal chance (of course, they don't). As Gamblor above posted, based on total prizes of $50,000 each entry is worth $16.67.For those who advance after week 9, the values become $12.50 and $25.Interesting question for everyone - if you make the final 2,000 and someone offered you $25 for your entry, would take it?
C
CrossEyed
Guest
No way.
