What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

****Super Bowl LIX - Kansas City 17-2 vs Philadelphia 17-3****(+1.5, 49.5) The Eagles are your 2024 Champions!!! (2 Viewers)

Over 48.5 feels pretty solid.

I'm liking the under here, just barely though. Neither team gives up a ton of points, Philly is 2nd in scoring D and KC is 4th.
Refs will let them play. It’s the SB.
I really hate this narrative of "let them play". Game should be officiated like every other game. Follow the rules and don't call phantom penalties. If it's a penalty in the regular season, it's a penalty in the super bowl.

Nobody wants a flagfest, but you can't change how the game is called in the last week of the season.
You don’t have to like it, but that’s what always seems to happen.

That’s not why I think it’ll hit the over though. For one, 48.5 isn’t a very big number. For another, both of these teams can put the ball in the end zone.

I expect TDs from
• Barkley (2x IMO)
• Hurts
• Smith (chiefs 32nd success rate vs slot WR targets this year, thanks Mina Kimes)
• Kelce
• Hunt

And KC has wildcards like Worthy, DHop & Hollywood. eagles have AJB & Gogurt.

There’s just so much offensive talent here.

And maybe a few FG to boot - both of these teams can move the ball, both are successful in the red zone.

Sure they’re good defenses. But again, 27-24 doesn’t seem like some sort of earth shatteringly high number, and that’s 51 right there.

My gut says more than that will be scored though.

Also, good defenses sometimes means pick 6, or FF/DFR/DTD. Good special teams might mean KRTD or PRTD.

6 TD, 3 FG? Totally doable. Anyway, that’s MO. YMMV.

48.5 seems low, but go look at SB scores. 10 of the last 19 have gone under that total.
But the last time these two teams played, it was 73. Since that was only 2 years ago, hard to ignore. Eagles offense is even better with Barkley. Over seems pretty solid.

The last time these two teams played it was 38.

ETA:
Also, the starting defense from the 2022 game is almost entirely different than the defense that will be taking the field on Sunday:

Here was the starting defense in 2022 SB (73 points scored): Josh Sweat, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Linval Joseph, Haasan Reddick, TJ Edwards, Avonte Maddox, Darius Slay, James Bradberry, CJGJ, Marcus Epps

Here is the starting defense in 2024 SB: Josh Sweat, jalen Carter (Fletcher Cox), Milton Williams (Javon Hargrave), Nolan Smith (Linval Joseph), Zach Baun (Haasan Reddick), Oren Burks (TJ Edwards), Cooper DeJean (Avonte Maddox), Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell (James Bradberry), CJGJ, Reed Blankenship (Marcus Epps).

The current Eagles D is less pass rush dependent and a much superior team in coverage. Also, Vic Fangio > Jonathan Gannon.
 
Last edited:
I think it’s KC who wants to shorten the game, not the Eagles. KC didn’t score 30 all year until the AFC Championship game and looks really vulnerable on the ground.
 
So I have watched/listened to way too much regarding this game. From almost all of the national media, I think the narrative is a little bit dangerous with this game. It is nearing NBA level, where it is all about the individual. The game from the media perspective talks about the only advantage in positions Chiefs have is QB and coach, and it is more like Mahones wins SB than Chiefs win SB.

If the Eagles win, it seems like it will be much more team-oriented and an effort from all facets of the team. I just worry if KC wins, it is all about Patrick, and we will begin to enter this cycle where team doesn't matter, it is all about the individual/"me".
 
Over 48.5 feels pretty solid.

I'm liking the under here, just barely though. Neither team gives up a ton of points, Philly is 2nd in scoring D and KC is 4th.
Refs will let them play. It’s the SB.
I really hate this narrative of "let them play". Game should be officiated like every other game. Follow the rules and don't call phantom penalties. If it's a penalty in the regular season, it's a penalty in the super bowl.

Nobody wants a flagfest, but you can't change how the game is called in the last week of the season.
You don’t have to like it, but that’s what always seems to happen.

That’s not why I think it’ll hit the over though. For one, 48.5 isn’t a very big number. For another, both of these teams can put the ball in the end zone.

I expect TDs from
• Barkley (2x IMO)
• Hurts
• Smith (chiefs 32nd success rate vs slot WR targets this year, thanks Mina Kimes)
• Kelce
• Hunt

And KC has wildcards like Worthy, DHop & Hollywood. eagles have AJB & Gogurt.

There’s just so much offensive talent here.

And maybe a few FG to boot - both of these teams can move the ball, both are successful in the red zone.

Sure they’re good defenses. But again, 27-24 doesn’t seem like some sort of earth shatteringly high number, and that’s 51 right there.

My gut says more than that will be scored though.

Also, good defenses sometimes means pick 6, or FF/DFR/DTD. Good special teams might mean KRTD or PRTD.

6 TD, 3 FG? Totally doable. Anyway, that’s MO. YMMV.

48.5 seems low, but go look at SB scores. 10 of the last 19 have gone under that total.
But the last time these two teams played, it was 73. Since that was only 2 years ago, hard to ignore. Eagles offense is even better with Barkley. Over seems pretty solid.

The last time these two teams played it was 38.

ETA:
Also, the starting defense from the 2022 game is almost entirely different than the defense that will be taking the field on Sunday:

Here was the starting defense in 2022 SB (73 points scored): Josh Sweat, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Linval Joseph, Haasan Reddick, TJ Edwards, Avonte Maddox, Darius Slay, James Bradberry, CJGJ, Marcus Epps

Here is the starting defense in 2024 SB: Josh Sweat, jalen Carter (Fletcher Cox), Milton Williams (Javon Hargrave), Nolan Smith (Linval Joseph), Zach Baun (Haasan Reddick), Oren Burks (TJ Edwards), Cooper DeJean (Avonte Maddox), Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell (James Bradberry), CJGJ, Reed Blankenship (Marcus Epps).

The current Eagles D is less pass rush dependent and a much superior team in coverage. Also, Vic Fangio > Jonathan Gannon.

our defense is so much better. i think kc offense is worse than the last time we met
 
Over 48.5 feels pretty solid.

I'm liking the under here, just barely though. Neither team gives up a ton of points, Philly is 2nd in scoring D and KC is 4th.
Refs will let them play. It’s the SB.
I really hate this narrative of "let them play". Game should be officiated like every other game. Follow the rules and don't call phantom penalties. If it's a penalty in the regular season, it's a penalty in the super bowl.

Nobody wants a flagfest, but you can't change how the game is called in the last week of the season.
You don’t have to like it, but that’s what always seems to happen.

That’s not why I think it’ll hit the over though. For one, 48.5 isn’t a very big number. For another, both of these teams can put the ball in the end zone.

I expect TDs from
• Barkley (2x IMO)
• Hurts
• Smith (chiefs 32nd success rate vs slot WR targets this year, thanks Mina Kimes)
• Kelce
• Hunt

And KC has wildcards like Worthy, DHop & Hollywood. eagles have AJB & Gogurt.

There’s just so much offensive talent here.

And maybe a few FG to boot - both of these teams can move the ball, both are successful in the red zone.

Sure they’re good defenses. But again, 27-24 doesn’t seem like some sort of earth shatteringly high number, and that’s 51 right there.

My gut says more than that will be scored though.

Also, good defenses sometimes means pick 6, or FF/DFR/DTD. Good special teams might mean KRTD or PRTD.

6 TD, 3 FG? Totally doable. Anyway, that’s MO. YMMV.

48.5 seems low, but go look at SB scores. 10 of the last 19 have gone under that total.
But the last time these two teams played, it was 73. Since that was only 2 years ago, hard to ignore. Eagles offense is even better with Barkley. Over seems pretty solid.

The last time these two teams played it was 38.

ETA:
Also, the starting defense from the 2022 game is almost entirely different than the defense that will be taking the field on Sunday:

Here was the starting defense in 2022 SB (73 points scored): Josh Sweat, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Linval Joseph, Haasan Reddick, TJ Edwards, Avonte Maddox, Darius Slay, James Bradberry, CJGJ, Marcus Epps

Here is the starting defense in 2024 SB: Josh Sweat, jalen Carter (Fletcher Cox), Milton Williams (Javon Hargrave), Nolan Smith (Linval Joseph), Zach Baun (Haasan Reddick), Oren Burks (TJ Edwards), Cooper DeJean (Avonte Maddox), Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell (James Bradberry), CJGJ, Reed Blankenship (Marcus Epps).

The current Eagles D is less pass rush dependent and a much superior team in coverage. Also, Vic Fangio > Jonathan Gannon.

our defense is so much better. i think kc offense is worse than the last time we met

The 2022 defense was reliant on the pass rush getting to the QB. It helped mask their coverage deficiencies. The field turf in Arizona was terrible and totally negated the Eagles rush, which then cause the secondary to get exposed. The 2024 defense is overall better, but that 2022 defense was one of the best pass rushing teams we've seen.
 
So I have watched/listened to way too much regarding this game. From almost all of the national media, I think the narrative is a little bit dangerous with this game. It is nearing NBA level, where it is all about the individual. The game from the media perspective talks about the only advantage in positions Chiefs have is QB and coach, and it is more like Mahones wins SB than Chiefs win SB.

If the Eagles win, it seems like it will be much more team-oriented and an effort from all facets of the team. I just worry if KC wins, it is all about Patrick, and we will begin to enter this cycle where team doesn't matter, it is all about the individual/"me".
I think 99% percent of the me or individual talk is from the outside....almost every word I have heard from a Chiefs player/coach....especially Mahomes and Reid is about how this journey has been everybody doing there job....from Mahomes to to the last guy on special teams....they don't have the "individual talent" across the board compared to PHI....they have had to do it together and having so many close games is indicative of that...does Mahomes seem to do a lot of the heavy lifting....sure....but this team was without RB1, WR1, WR2 and PK for a lot of the season...they have leaned on all facets of the game.....I think the PHI vs Mahomes narrative is basically an outsider view of how this shapes up because talent wise PHI seems to have the advantage.....and then people say "well you can never count out Mahomes" because he has put this team on his back in some crucial moments over the last few years....but if they win it will be a team win...
 
So I have watched/listened to way too much regarding this game. From almost all of the national media, I think the narrative is a little bit dangerous with this game. It is nearing NBA level, where it is all about the individual. The game from the media perspective talks about the only advantage in positions Chiefs have is QB and coach, and it is more like Mahones wins SB than Chiefs win SB.

If the Eagles win, it seems like it will be much more team-oriented and an effort from all facets of the team. I just worry if KC wins, it is all about Patrick, and we will begin to enter this cycle where team doesn't matter, it is all about the individual/"me".
I think 99% percent of the me or individual talk is from the outside....almost every word I have heard from a Chiefs player/coach....especially Mahomes and Reid is about how this journey has been everybody doing there job....from Mahomes to to the last guy on special teams....they don't have the "individual talent" across the board compared to PHI....they have had to do it together and having so many close games is indicative of that...does Mahomes seem to do a lot of the heavy lifting....sure....but this team was without RB1, WR1, WR2 and PK for a lot of the season...they have leaned on all facets of the game.....I think the PHI vs Mahomes narrative is basically an outsider view of how this shapes up because talent wise PHI seems to have the advantage.....and then people say "well you can never count out Mahomes" because he has put this team on his back in some crucial moments over the last few years....but if they win it will be a team win...
good to hear. Hope if the Chiefs win it continues that way. Might just be over-reaction on my part to the Best QB award came out yesterday (i.e. MVP). Have to figure it will go to QB basically forever, will a RB have a better season than Saquan had this year? And I kind of think a WR is a huge longshot considering the award will go the WR's QB and not to the WR
 
I would love to hear more from KC backers what they are seeing to think KC takes this. Not that I don’t think they can (really think the game is 50/50, and would love if some alternative world if this were a 7 game match-up like NBA), but all I have heard a lot of is based on Mahones and that is kind of it. I have heard people say KC had the #4 defense, but then tons of conflicting stats on how they are susceptible to the run, passes outside the numbers, TE, etc.

Reason I ask is because I have good coin on the Eagles to win I got them at +2400 and +2025 to win the SB. Smart people would obviously hedge here and take KC to guarantee a profit, but I am having a hard time pulling the trigger on a hedge. So open to anybody talking sense into me..
Because I'm a nice guy, I would hedge it.

You are sitting on a gold mine there depending on how much you put in. I honestly believe you are gonna make a ton of money this weekend on those two bets.

The smart play though is to hedge the Chiefs so you can at least get your costs out of it.
 
This has a Seattle/Denver SB feel to me. I don’t think it’s very close.
Totally agree. 41-16 Chiefs.
Chiefs couldn't blow out ANYONE. If a blowout happens, it will be KC getting embarrassed
lol no
it was an if. Point is KC has not blown anyone out, even teams they should have. I haven't made an official score prediction, and don't really expect a blowout by Philly either but they could. KC.....can't
 
Because I'm a nice guy, I would hedge it.

You are sitting on a gold mine there depending on how much you put in. I honestly believe you are gonna make a ton of money this weekend on those two bets.

The smart play though is to hedge the Chiefs so you can at least get your costs out of it.
Chiefs win big. Congrats on the 3peat.
 
Because I'm a nice guy, I would hedge it.

You are sitting on a gold mine there depending on how much you put in. I honestly believe you are gonna make a ton of money this weekend on those two bets.

The smart play though is to hedge the Chiefs so you can at least get your costs out of it.
Chiefs win big. Congrats on the 3peat.

Absolutely. Im not even going to watch this slaughter
 
Because I'm a nice guy, I would hedge it.

You are sitting on a gold mine there depending on how much you put in. I honestly believe you are gonna make a ton of money this weekend on those two bets.

The smart play though is to hedge the Chiefs so you can at least get your costs out of it.
Chiefs win big. Congrats on the 3peat.

Absolutely. Im not even going to watch this slaughter
Nice try fans of the team that's really going to win this game.
 
If it’s a close game I give the Chiefs the edge. They just seem to always do just enough to win (this is the Mahomes factor imo). That doesn’t mean the eagles can’t win a close one, just a slight edge to KC. If there is a 10+ point gap in the fourth quarter I think that HEAVILY favors the birds. I just think that KC is going to struggle to put up more than 23-24 points against this defense (just like every other team they’ve played since week 4).

The question is whether the Birds can put up 28+. If Jalen does what he’s been doing since the bye and doesn’t turn it over, the eagles are damn near unbeatable. If he throws a pick or fumbles the ball then it’s up in the air. I think he’s on a mission to right the wrong if 2022. Expect the eagles to win this one by double digits. This offense is just too good and the defense is one of the best units I’ve ever seen in Midnight green.

The Mahomes magic dies tomorrow and people will have to admit to Jalen’s greatness.

Eagles win 34-24

ETA: everyone keeps stroking Spags and his blitzes, which is all deserved. Hurts’ legs and Saquons speed and patience are great equalizers there. KC better be careful with bringing the heat because if Saquon can get through or around that initial crush, there won’t be much left to stop him and he’ll take it to the house. I fully expect at least one 50+ yard TD from him because of this.
 
Last edited:
Completely random stat but interesting nonetheless. Since 2003, there have been 10 times when a team with a first round bye faces a team without a first round bye. The teams with a bye have gone 0-10 against the spread, and the teams are 9-1 straight up
 
Completely random stat but interesting nonetheless. Since 2003, there have been 10 times when a team with a first round bye faces a team without a first round bye. The teams with a bye have gone 0-10 against the spread, and the teams are 9-1 straight up
Which team is 9-1 straight up?
 
Good luck tomorrow Eagles fans. I won’t be in the thread tomorrow but it’s been fun going back and forth with you the last two weeks. Thanks for being civil and respectful to this matchup. I hope I have been the same to you guys.

The Eagles are a helluva team. No shame if the Chiefs lose to Saquan. Love that guy.

Have a good day all, and we will see you on the other side.
 
Good luck tomorrow Eagles fans. I won’t be in the thread tomorrow but it’s been fun going back and forth with you the last two weeks. Thanks for being civil and respectful to this matchup. I hope I have been the same to you guys.

The Eagles are a helluva team. No shame if the Chiefs lose to Saquan. Love that guy.

Have a good day all, and we will see you on the other side.

Thanks for allowing the eagles to share the same field with your unbeatable squad. Chiefs win this one by 3 scores
 
In an oversimplified kind of way, this game is an interesting test in 2 ways.

#1
The 2024 Chiefs are not better than the 2022 Chiefs, the 2024 Eagles are a lot better than the 2022 Eagles. That Super Bowl was very much a 50-50 game, that came down to the wire. Have the Eagles improved enough?

#2
The Eagles are clearly a better team, other than at QB/HC, which most would agree are the 2 most important spots. How valuable are those 2 edges? Do they overcome all the other position groups?

In my opinion, this game goes 1 of 2 ways. Either pretty similar to the KC/Buffalo game last week, or a similar, but less of a blowout, of the TB/KC Super Bowl, where the Eagles superior overall talent just takes over. I'm very interested to see what happens. I've got it Eagles win 31-17, with a big Barkley MVP performance.
 
Good luck tomorrow Eagles fans. I won’t be in the thread tomorrow but it’s been fun going back and forth with you the last two weeks. Thanks for being civil and respectful to this matchup. I hope I have been the same to you guys.

The Eagles are a helluva team. No shame if the Chiefs lose to Saquan. Love that guy.

Have a good day all, and we will see you on the other side.

Thanks for allowing the eagles to share the same field with your unbeatable squad. Chiefs win this one by 3 scores

Yes but unironically let’s go
 
Haven't made my score prediction yet. I think Philly generally controls the game, and goes into the second half of the fourth quarter with a 2 score lead. But Mahomes does his thing and cuts it to 5 or 6. Philly kills the clock with Saquon. Eagles win 31 to 26
 
....no other reason than a very solid gut feeling:

Eagles - 42
Chiefs - 20
MVP - Saquon Barkley

Have a great evening everyone! Enjoy the game! Good luck to both teams!!






@Ministry of Pain Eagles current record stands at 17-3, if ya wanna fix the thread title.....
 
In an oversimplified kind of way, this game is an interesting test in 2 ways.

#1
The 2024 Chiefs are not better than the 2022 Chiefs, the 2024 Eagles are a lot better than the 2022 Eagles. That Super Bowl was very much a 50-50 game, that came down to the wire. Have the Eagles improved enough?

#2
The Eagles are clearly a better team, other than at QB/HC, which most would agree are the 2 most important spots. How valuable are those 2 edges? Do they overcome all the other position groups?

In my opinion, this game goes 1 of 2 ways. Either pretty similar to the KC/Buffalo game last week, or a similar, but less of a blowout, of the TB/KC Super Bowl, where the Eagles superior overall talent just takes over. I'm very interested to see what happens. I've got it Eagles win 31-17, with a big Barkley MVP performance.

I have the same score 31-17 Eagles.
 
Just threw a brisket on and getting the house set up for our guests. The day is finally here. No more analysis just time to get down to business.

Hope everyone has a great day and we Birds fans are all celebrating in about 15 hours.

Go Birds!!!!!!
Love that it is finally here. Please don’t let this game come down to a kick! 😁
 
The 24 Chiefs are better than the 22 Chiefs, but I guess you all will have to see it to believe it.

Better in what way? Their statistics don't really bear that out.

On offense, they threw for 1300 less yards and ran for nearly 200 less and scored 111 less points. The 2024 Chiefs are scoring at nearly 0.5 points less per drive so they're also less efficient. Offensively, they're not even in the same stratosphere as 2022.

On defense, they're about the same. They've given up almost the same yardage and points. They've given up 80 less yards than 2022 and 40 less points, but on a per drive basis, teams are scoring at a nearly identical pace (2.01 v. 1.98).
 
Just threw a brisket on and getting the house set up for our guests. The day is finally here. No more analysis just time to get down to business.

Hope everyone has a great day and we Birds fans are all celebrating in about 15 hours.

Go Birds!!!!!!

What time should I get there?
 
Just threw a brisket on and getting the house set up for our guests. The day is finally here. No more analysis just time to get down to business.

Hope everyone has a great day and we Birds fans are all celebrating in about 15 hours.

Go Birds!!!!!!

What time should I get there?
Pulling at 5, resting an hour and then it’s sammich time. Keg will be tapped long before. YMMV
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top