Super Bowl XLV bet (1 Viewer)

[Godsbrother]

The New England Patriots have looked unbeatable coming down the stretch and are overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl. But if you had to bet a substantial amount of money would you take the Patriots vs the rest of the playoff teams?

A few days ago on Pardon the Interruption , Wilbon and Korneheiser asked this question and both chose the Patriots.

If given the choice between the Patriots or all other playoff teams, which would you choose?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Why would anyone take a straight up bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? Surely you can get better odds than that.

 

[DoubleG]

The Patriots do get a 1st round bye - but they don't get a 2nd and 3rd round bye. That means they still have 2 games before they even make it to the SB. Two games against 2 good teams in which anything can happen (including injury). At this point, I'd still have to take the field. Especially as the Patriots actually are playing quite a bit like the Colts have in recent years - alot of passing offense and not much defense or rushing. I realize they are 9th in the NFL is rushing yards per game, but their YPC is the same as Carolina and Arizona.

Is NE the favorite to win the SB? Probably. Are they the dominant team they once were in season's past? Not at all.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Why would anyone take a straight up bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? Surely you can get better odds than that.

After a bit of googling, I've found that the Patriots are currently +200 to win the Super Bowl. I'm not a gambling man, but if I understand this line correctly, that means Vegas is saying the Patriots have roughly a 33% chance of winning the Super Bowl (and thus, "the field" have a 67% chance of winning the Super Bowl).Are the Patriots the favorite individual team to win? Yes. Would I bet even money on the Patriots vs the field (which I assume is what the OP is asking)? Absolutely not, that would be asinine.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Why would anyone take a straight up bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? Surely you can get better odds than that.

After a bit of googling, I've found that the Patriots are currently +200 to win the Super Bowl. I'm not a gambling man, but if I understand this line correctly, that means Vegas is saying the Patriots have roughly a 33% chance of winning the Super Bowl (and thus, "the field" have a 67% chance of winning the Super Bowl).Are the Patriots the favorite individual team to win? Yes. Would I bet even money on the Patriots vs the field (which I assume is what the OP is asking)? Absolutely not, that would be asinine.

the lowest I've seen is +130 and thats including their slice off the top. I would take even money vs NE,with 3 chances to win even with the Pats looking so strong right now.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

They look a lot more beatable than the undefeated team a few years ago tht lost in the SB.

 

[Godsbrother]

Why would anyone take a straight up bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? Surely you can get better odds than that.

I agree. I was surprised that both Wilbon and Kornheiser picked the Patriots rather than the field.

 

[belljr]

Straigt up - Field

Odds - Pats

 

[Workhorse]

Why would anyone take a straight up bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? Surely you can get better odds than that.

After a bit of googling, I've found that the Patriots are currently +200 to win the Super Bowl. I'm not a gambling man, but if I understand this line correctly, that means Vegas is saying the Patriots have roughly a 33% chance of winning the Super Bowl (and thus, "the field" have a 67% chance of winning the Super Bowl).Are the Patriots the favorite individual team to win? Yes. Would I bet even money on the Patriots vs the field (which I assume is what the OP is asking)? Absolutely not, that would be asinine.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Let's say NE has a 75% chance of winning any particular playoff game. That number is almost certainly too high, but that's okay. The probability that they'll go on to win the SB is (0.75)^3 = 42%, making a straight-up bet on them a bad idea.

In order to justify picking NE here, you have to think they have a 79%-80% chance of winning each game.