quick-hands
Footballguy
because it's unprecedented. but we can't. so I wont.
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sure wish we could discuss the UAWs incredible strike. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter quick-hands
- Start date
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Why can’t we?
kupcho1
Footballguy
Is it a political or economic discussion?
I'd say economic. For what it's worth, I think we'll be seeing an uptick in union power over the coming decades as we repatriate manufacturing. Some of this is driven by the supply chain disruption caused by COVID. Some of it is driven by China. My money's on the union winning this fight.
I'd say economic. For what it's worth, I think we'll be seeing an uptick in union power over the coming decades as we repatriate manufacturing. Some of this is driven by the supply chain disruption caused by COVID. Some of it is driven by China. My money's on the union winning this fight.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I agree that 40% is ridiculous but it's also ridiculous for the executives to get that.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Demands are meant to be ridiculous. It's how you negotiate. They know there is no universe they get 40%. But 10, 15 is completely plausible.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I had a nice life growing up because if union labor. My brother and nephew in the UAW (not big 3)
I’m in favor of people getting paid, but I also worry this will lead to more and more jobs being replaced by automation and/or moved to mexico
Also what it will do to the price of cars (or at least the big 3) and more selfishly the impact on my own bonus
I’m in favor of people getting paid, but I also worry this will lead to more and more jobs being replaced by automation and/or moved to mexico
Also what it will do to the price of cars (or at least the big 3) and more selfishly the impact on my own bonus
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
On the flip side I have worked UAW assembly and manufacturing jobs in college. These jobs are not hard and these people are easily replaceable (much more than they think)
If we can keep it economic focused and not political, sure we can talk about it. If you folks can't do that, we won't.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I hope we do more of our own manufacturing but from what I read, we’re moving everything out of China and into Mexico and the Asian Pacific.
Right, all this exactly. I don't think the UAW realizes the potential impact of their position. I'm not intimately familiar with the average union UAW wage, but I'm pretty sure it is pretty decent, with very good benefits - moreso than the average American household.
They are being offered 20% wage increases over the next few years. That's pretty good.
But let's strike for a 32 hour work week (which probably included union mandated breaks, hour lunches, etc...)
There are viable alternatives in other countries and automation is firmly coming onboard, so if I'm management deal with these unreasonable demands or find another solution?
I dunno
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I’m in favor of people getting paid fairly too but if the union wins this battle and does obtain much higher wages and a shorter work week, it will lead to them losing the war sooner. The automakers will move the manual labor jobs to plants in Mexico sooner and will invest more capital towards automation. The big 3 will need to increase the prices of their vehicles and will lose sales to Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Kia as well. It’s a downward spiral and not good for the US since good paying jobs drive the economy.
Hawks64
Footballguy
It's a negotiation, with labor you aim for the stars and then settle on something in the middle.
Hawks64
Footballguy
It's interesting, I was just on a tour of a major mfg operation. Automation still requires a ton of labor.
In terms of mfg relocating, that's being down now. It's coming back to the US because labor costs are rising very quickly in overseas mfg and the shipping costs are astronomical and don't appear to be coming down anytime soon.
Poke_4_Life
Footballguy
Given the fact that the auto companies have already offered 20% makes me think 40% was a good number. They will end up settling somewhere around 30% if I had to guess.
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
More automation will come regardless of this negotiation. Whether it reduces or freezes the number of laborers is the question. Either one stifles unions.
More jobs will move to Mexico or growth jobs will be placed there. Mexico has a young laborer work force. We don't. The outcome of this negotiation won't change that. Mexico is our future major trade partner.
More jobs will move to Mexico or growth jobs will be placed there. Mexico has a young laborer work force. We don't. The outcome of this negotiation won't change that. Mexico is our future major trade partner.
kupcho1
Footballguy
Autoworkers Strike: The Unions' Rising Influence in America || Peter Zeihan
I can't recommend Zeihan enough. 4:25 is well worth your time.
beer 30
Footballguy
Good listen, thanks for posting
dino259
Footballguy
I saw a clip of I believe them asking the GM CEO about this 40%. His answer was not good.
The massive increase in CEO salaries vs general employees is not good. Just more things in this world getting out of wack.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Let's start by getting the facts straight.
First off, the GM CEO is a woman, not a man.
Second, the vast majority of GM CEO Mary Barra's compensation increase was not salary. It was stock tied to company performance.
The UAW has pegged its 40% pay increase demand to the increase in CEO pay at the three automakers since 2019. In an interview on CNN, Barra pointed to the fact that 92% of her compensation is stock and options tied to company financial performance, and not pure salary. Her base pay is unchanged compared to 2019.
And it's not as if the UAW members haven't also benefited somewhat from the improvement in company performance.
Average profit sharing payments for UAW members at GM came to $12,750 last year, a record for the company, up from $10,250 in 2021. Over the last four years hourly profit sharing has totaled $40,000 per UAW member at GM.
Source: CNN
formerfourdigit
Footballguy
To put the wage demands in perspective you need to understand they are over a number of years. If you take 5% interest which is easy to lock in right now, your money is up 27% at the end of year 5. So thats really the benchmark right now IMO.
As someone who has a lot of business with automotive suppliers I am just hoping for things to get resolved quickly. Absolutely respect the right of the unions to negotiate for better conditions.
As someone who has a lot of business with automotive suppliers I am just hoping for things to get resolved quickly. Absolutely respect the right of the unions to negotiate for better conditions.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
That is true—but CEO’s getting paid in a manner that vastly increases their net worth but gives them massive tax benefits is not an argument supporting that their pay has not increased. Many super wealthy CEO”s get compensated with stock options—which increases their net worth—and consequently—they hold the stock (as they would have to pay taxes on them once they sell them)—but use the increase in their net worth to get low interest loans if they need more liquidity to live off of. You don’t pay income tax on loans—so effectively—they get the benefit of massively increased net worth, and still get the benefit of living life in a manner where they have a ton of liquidity—and pay taxes at a far smaller percentage than they would had they just gotten paid in money like normal workers get. Normal workers don’t get the benefit of asking how we’d like to get paid. I’d love to get paid in stocks and gold if it would massively reduce my tax exposure.
Lastly—compensating a CEO with stock is effectively a rigged system. CEO’s have the ability to financially engineer their reports in order to trigger stock incentives in their contracts. If a company looks like it’s not profitable enough to trigger a stock incentive—they can just lay off a bunch of workers to make a quarter look more profitable (by reducing costs)—and then just re-hire them after they get their bonuses. The flood gates for possible manipulation open when the people in charge of a company are allowed to affect their compensation through financial engineering. The typical worker is not in a position to where they can manipulate their compensation through working the books to make them look more profitable.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Of course we would all like to get paid like CEO's.
I don't have a personal position regarding this negotiation. IMO it's healthy for employees and owners to periodically re-calibrate their financial relationship.
However, it was worth pointing out that the 40% demand by the UAW is not apples to apples as a basis for an increase. GM's stock price is variable and therefore so is CEO pay (e.g. it went down from $63 to $34 in the past two years). It would not be sensible for a company to tie an effectively permanent wage increase to something as volatile as stock and option values selected over an arbitrary period.
And good luck with the type of manipulation you describe. I've been in multiple public company senior financial positions and the SEC is not dumb when it comes to financial engineering.
Gawain
Footballguy
But the 40% increase isn't an immediate increase of 40%, it's wages over 4 years.
For example, to go from $50 an hour to $70 an hour over the next four years are 4 raises of 10%, 9.1%, 8.3% and 7.7%.
Those are still great increases, but they also were in the old CBA increases (which were likely lower) throughout the last two years of inflation. 16%, 7%, 7% and 5.5% gets you there too.
For example, to go from $50 an hour to $70 an hour over the next four years are 4 raises of 10%, 9.1%, 8.3% and 7.7%.
Those are still great increases, but they also were in the old CBA increases (which were likely lower) throughout the last two years of inflation. 16%, 7%, 7% and 5.5% gets you there too.
MTskibum
Footballguy
I could do my job in 32 hours, I want a 4 day work week to be standardized.
My brother is in management at an underground mine and they managed to get to a point where they get every other Friday off and still remain just as productive.
This is what we should strive towards as a country.
My brother is in management at an underground mine and they managed to get to a point where they get every other Friday off and still remain just as productive.
This is what we should strive towards as a country.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
At an economy-wide level, I would be careful about rooting too hard for wage increases.
With inflation not nearly under control, there is risk of kicking off the dreaded wage-price spiral in earnest economy-wide (some say it's already here).
We saw that in the 70's, and the subsequent stagflation, layoffs, double-digit interest rates and multiple recessions to get it under control was not pretty.
MTskibum
Footballguy
The wages at the company I work for have not been keeping up with inflation, I am not even sure a 20% immediate increase would catch us up to where we were 10 years ago.
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
I received a summary from a vendor this morning that detailed the vehicles produced at each plant. UAW targeted the most profitable product plants first. Not relevant to this discussion but i'm shocked that two of GM's most profitable vehicles are the Chevrolet Express and the GMC Savana. I honestly didn't even know they were still in production. I wonder if this information is actually accurate or if GM is getting some kind of preferential treatment or message from UAW?
- The first round of the UAW's "stand-up strike" are:
- GM's Wentzville Assembly plant near St. Louis, where it builds the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon and Chevrolet Express and GMC Savana
- Ford's Michigan Assembly plant west of Detroit, which builds the Bronco and Ranger
- Stellantis' Toledo Assembly Complex in Ohio, which builds the Jeep Gladiator and Wrangler
- The three plants employ about 13,000 hourly workers, or about 9 percent of the UAW's Detroit 3 membership
- The plants strategically build some of these brands most profitable vehicles
- The UAW's plans to expand the work stoppage at yet-to-be-determined intervals have not been made public
- The strike will last at least into the weekend. The UAW said the union will not bargain at all on Friday and is planning a rally outside the UAW-Ford joint training center in downtown Detroit this afternoon.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I spoke with the one of the largest labor union in North America two weeks ago…..
In my opinion, they are taking the whole automation thing incredibly lightly. They think it’s a joke, and they don’t think automation will ever take the place of the labor.
I think they’re already 10 years behind fighting this and at this point they don’t even know it yet.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Agreed. My wife and I both get a very high minimum percentage increase every year, but that is not keeping up with the inflation.
the moops
Footballguy
I imagine 90% plus of jobs could be done in 32 hours
Stoneworker
Footballguy
It doesn't matter to the broader economy whether your individual wages have kept up with inflation (obviously it does to you personally).
A broad 20% increase would increase consumer spending (keeping inflation high) and also increase production costs for companies, which would likely be passed on to other consumers in the form of higher prices (also keeping inflation high). It's called cost-push inflation.
And the Fed would raise interest rates even further for longer, etc. etc until the economy eventually resets through layoffs and recession.
That's the wage-price spiral I'm talking about.
Keerock
Footballguy
Define employee here? Factory worker? Also... wonder what net income without Union dues would be?Tesla Net Income per employee - $122,782
GM Net Income per employee - $59,500
just saying
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I'd be very careful with those figures. Tesla's is high primarily due to billions in carbon regulatory credits that are 100% profit and not strictly selling cars. And those credits will go away as other EV mfrs ramp up their sales.Tesla Net Income per employee - $122,782
GM Net Income per employee - $59,500
just saying
Tesla top executives concede the company can’t count on that source of cash continuing.
....said Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn. “In the long term, regulatory credit sales will not be a material part of the business, and we don’t plan the business around that. It’s possible that for a handful of additional quarters, it remains strong. It’s also possible that it’s not.”
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Here's what is interesting IMO...and the gap will only increase to the extent UAW demands are met...and potentially further put the Big Three behind in the EV race.
Tesla workers earn about $45 an hour in wages and benefits, whereas UAW-represented employees at the Detroit Three make about $64 to $67 an hour, according to Reuters. The gap gives Tesla a competitive advantage, as do various manufacturing strategies and not having to share profits with dealers.
Source: Yahoo Finance, others
Tesla workers earn about $45 an hour in wages and benefits, whereas UAW-represented employees at the Detroit Three make about $64 to $67 an hour, according to Reuters. The gap gives Tesla a competitive advantage, as do various manufacturing strategies and not having to share profits with dealers.
Source: Yahoo Finance, others
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yep. It blows my mind how many of my colleagues -- who have essentially the exact same job as me -- take work home, work on the weekends, do emails on Sunday, etc. I can see being a little overwhelmed if you're new to all of this. But if you still can't get your work done during normal business hours after a year or two on the job, either you're incompetent or you have poor time management skills or both. When people tell me how busy and overworked they are, I know they think they're bragging about their importance to the organization but what I hear is that they're unreliable.
I'm 100% confident that I could do my current job on a 32 hour workweek. I would not feel harried.
the moops
Footballguy
i do a little bit of work on weekends or nights only to mask the fact that I do very little work while at work
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
That program has been running for like 15 years. There are of course refurbishments and stuff but that capital has been paid off for a long time
Also my guess is that it was more targeted towards the new Colorado but just a guess
Kind of surprised they didn’t go at the r the F-Series and Silverado, etc
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I was only speaking about me personally. I agree with and understand everything you said.
NutterButter
Footballguy
I do it just to give the impression that I'm working more when I'm just moving some of my work to those times.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
32 hour work week is way overdo.
It makes zero sense that the work week is the same now as it was before the invention of the personal computer, when we were far less efficient.
Worker productivity is up 100% since 1990, while inflation adjusted wages are up 0%.
Executive compensation is up massively. Somehow, the American workforce allowed executives to capture the entirety of the gains brought to us by the personal computer, while sharing 0 of it with the workforce.
It would be like if we suddenly got Jetson's style personal robot butlers, and we used them to work 50 hours a week for the same salary, since we no longer have household chores. We don't want personal robot butlers so we can work more, we want them so we can have more free time. The same should have been true of computers, but all we got out of that was massive gains in executive compensation. What a waste.
It makes zero sense that the work week is the same now as it was before the invention of the personal computer, when we were far less efficient.
Worker productivity is up 100% since 1990, while inflation adjusted wages are up 0%.
Executive compensation is up massively. Somehow, the American workforce allowed executives to capture the entirety of the gains brought to us by the personal computer, while sharing 0 of it with the workforce.
It would be like if we suddenly got Jetson's style personal robot butlers, and we used them to work 50 hours a week for the same salary, since we no longer have household chores. We don't want personal robot butlers so we can work more, we want them so we can have more free time. The same should have been true of computers, but all we got out of that was massive gains in executive compensation. What a waste.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Interesting (related) take on the auto industry I heard last week from Nick Colas, who is an industry analyst . Only Tesla and Toyota Will Survive. Essentially saying the industry is broken, and the next two recessions will kill the other automakers.
Someone is going to have to make F-150s though......
Someone is going to have to make F-150s though......
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
unionization and strikes will only continue and grow imho. the vast divide in wages from the top to the bottom is getting to the point that the proletariat is getting unruly. one of my childhood friends is in the movie business. he hasn't worked in months. but he and the union are sticking to their guns. its gnarly.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
i'm still pissed about the last bail out
Nugget
Footballguy
If we replace widgets with food, healthcare, oil do you feel the same way? We can look at lots of ways to produce less.
Scoresman
Footballguy
The 40 hour work week is outdated. It was originally adopted to provide 8 hours work, 8 hours sleep, and 8 hours leisure per day. But that assumed a few things. One, it assumed that one person per household was working and the other was at home doing domestic work. It also does not take into account commutes which have gotten longer. It was also established during a time where most work activities were manual and required more human time to get done. This no longer the case with technology helping to automate a lot of tasks.
The vast majority of jobs in the labor market today should be able to be effectively, and efficiently done in less than 40 hours a week.
Households can no longer afford to have one person stay at home full time because wages have stagnated. Something has to give. Might as well demand a shorter work week.
