FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Has anyone said that GDP would plummet if we worked fewer hours? I think most agree that we'd be "fine", the question is, what should people get paid if we all work less? Again, trade offs.Pick a relatively prosperous European country. Not Italy, not Greece. Let's go with Germany. Everybody knows that Germans are efficient, punctual, and ruggedly handsome, so they're a good comparison case for the US.
- Europe undeniably has better work life balance than the USA, but this does come with a cost. They are not on the cutting edge in any field that I am aware of. Maybe that's worth it, maybe it's not. It's a question of what a society values.
Does this actually have a tangible cost to the average citizen or is it just a pride thing? Sure I like to buy American where I can, but honestly don't think about it much. My phone, computer, TV, refrigerator, car, etc. are all mostly made overseas, mostly because of the reliability and quality of those specific brands. This wouldn't change at all for me if I lived in Europe.
Per capita GDP in Germany is $51K.
Per capita GDP in the US is almost $80K.
If anything, that comparison actually understates the true magnitude of the gap between our countries. If Germany were a state, it would have the honor of squeaking in just ahead of Mississippi to avoid the indignity of being the poorest US state. Germany lags behind economic powerhouses like West Virginia and Arkansas. All those German settlers who landed in Minnesota and the Dakotas? We're about 50% better off than modern day Germans, and nobody thinks of us as especially rich. (Eagle-eyed viewers will note that there's a bit of discrepancy here because that German GDP number is for 2021 and the US figure is from 2022, but that isn't going to change anything.)
Yeah, there's a cost to this.
Now, I shut my computer off at the end of the day and leave my work in my office when I leave. I get four weeks of PTO each year -- pretty skimpy compared to what I'm sure my German counterparts get but still fairly generous by US standards -- and I make it my personal mission to use every minute of it. I could have made significantly more income in my current career if I had been willing to relocate, and of course I could have simply picked a higher-paying career if I really cared. But I like academia and I like the upper Midwest, so I made the decision to give up some income for a better lifestyle. Couldn't be happier with the outcome of that decision. I am definitely a person who is persuadable that maybe the Europeans have this right. But yes, there is a tradeoff.
Edit: It's actually pretty instructive to compare assorted countries in the EU to the US. Norway is doing great, for example, but you learn real fast that they're a huge outlier. Countries that we think of as our peers -- Germany, France, the UK, Belgium -- are all pretty poor compared to us. Spain barely even qualifies as a first-world country. IMO, Americans don't really have a good handle on how much richer we are compared to pretty much everybody else. Ironically, I think foreign travel actually kind of exacerbates that tendency because rich Americans tend to travel to popular European tourist destinations that cater to rich tourists, so the difference in living standards is mostly masked when you visit Europe. You have to go in a regular grocery store or something to really see the difference tangibly.
The other big advantage we get is that our stock market flies because of it, and most of us are invested in that in some form or another. European markets, by comparison generally sit pretty flat.
If you look at the best performing stocks worldwide it's all USA, China, and a little bit of Korea. Very little from Europe.
BUT, as I've mentioned throughout this thread, number of hours worked is not the only factor in this, and is a much smaller factor than most would consider. It's largely a culture thing. Someone creates a successful Italian restaurant in America, they want to become the next Darden billionaire. Someone does the same thing in Europe, they're happy to just live a nice life. There's not the urge to scale scale scale, which doesn't necessarily require more hours.
I've posted a lot of data on how productivity curtails sharply beyond a certain number of working hours per day and per week, and how that was Henry Ford's entire premise for reducing the work week in the first place. I don't really care to rehash it here, but this is the thing that I think the "if we want nice things, we have to work hard" crowd, like JB, are missing. There may very well be a significantly better balance. What if I told you that you could work 50% less and you'd still have 99% the nice things you had before? Wouldn't that interest people? Obviously that's hyperbole, but all the data points to there being a much better balance than the one we currently have, given how little productivity we get beyond a certain point in the work week.
Here's a really fun exercise. This is a chart of US GDP over a 100 year span.
At the start of that chart, the average workweek was around 80 hours. At the end of it, 40 hours.
But here's the really fun part. Looking at that chart, can you identify the periods where the following things went into effect...
- 10-hour workday movement, where public pressure forced most jobs into a maximum of 10-hour workday
- Government jobs, printing press jobs change to 8 hour work day
- Federal overtime laws dictating overtime pay for any work beyond 8 hours per day
- Ford switches to 40 hour work week
- Federal law mandating 44 hour work week
- Federal law mandating 40 hour work week
The reality is that none of those things show up on the chart as even a blip. Of course there was a lot going on with world wars, etc, but not even a blip in GDP output. I made the claim earlier in this thread that we could probably reduce working hours by 10% and the change in productivity would likely be so negligible it was barely even noticeable. Honestly, I think I might have been too conservative on that.
And you kind of yada-yadad over the best part- yes, our culture is why the Italian restaurant owner wants to be the next Darden billionaire instead of just living a nice life. That isn't Darden's fault, or the stock market's, or the overpaid CEO's.
Why does pay need to decrease if productivity decreases slightly? I posted the chart earlier in this thread that over the last 50 years productivity has increased 400% while inflation adjusted wages have increased virtually zero. It seems like productivity has a little to give back on that front. Would it be that bad if productivity was only up 390% over the last 50 years while wage increases remained at 0%?
Were wages decreased in the past when the work week was reduced? I'm genuinely asking, I don't know the answer. When the work week was reduced from 44 hours to 40 in 1940 were wages dropped 10%? I honestly have no idea, but I doubt it.
I know for sure that when Ford dropped the work week from 48 hours to 40 they did not decrease wages at all.