Surprisingly Bad Offenses this year (1 Viewer)

[Scoresman]

We have a great thread discussing surprisingly good offenses. How about the bad ones? Which teams are going to underperform expectations this year?

Last year looking back I think we can say the Rams were one of the top candidates. Coming off a Superbowl victory nobody expected them to tank that bad. Injuries definitely ffected them though.

Denver too. Everyone was expecting great things from Russell Wilson, and everything fizzled.

I'm having a hard time pinpointing teams this year that could be surprisingly bad on offense. Maybe Dallas since they lost their OC and Schultz. I think Buffalo will underperform, but mostly on defense, not offense. Also, I can see Aaron Rodgers being an upgrade in NY, but I could also see it being a disaster.

What say you?

 

[-OZ-]

Tennessee but that’s not a surprise

 

[MTskibum]

NY Jets
Chicago bears

The bears sucked last year, but people are trying to hype them up as being good this year. I don't buy it, although I think Fields will do pretty decent fantasy wise.

 

[zamboni]

My sense is that it will be a high powered team whose defense improves big time and limits shootouts. Maybe a Miami or Cincinnati type.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

NY Jets
Chicago bears

The bears sucked last year, but people are trying to hype them up as being good this year. I don't buy it, although I think Fields will do pretty decent fantasy wise.

I suspect their *offense* will be significantly better. Improved OL, much better receiving weapons, another year of development for Kmet.

Some Individual players may not have remarkable FF seasons due to Fields ability to steal the scene with 1 scramble, but their *offense* could be surprisingly good, IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My sense is that it will be a high powered team whose defense improves big time and limits shootouts. Maybe a Miami or Cincinnati type.

That’s not a bad call, though I don’t see MIA slowing down due to McDaniels, not to mention Hill/Waddle.

But in general, I agree a team that improved their defense significantly might have fewer shootouts.

I wonder which.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Imma say Jets. ARod comes to town, tons of weapons. But their defense is excellent. They’ll score points, have some FF relevant players - but I’m thinking outside Hall, and maybe Wilson, it might be disappointing FF-wise, and ARod’s numbers might not be that spectacular on a team that has such a good defense.

It’s no insult to NYJ - I think they’ll be a vastly improved team. They just might not need to be a shootout team.

I could be wrong.

 

[zamboni]

Imma say Jets. ARod comes to town, tons of weapons. But their defense is excellent. They’ll score points, have some FF relevant players - but I’m thinking outside Hall, and maybe Wilson, it might be disappointing FF-wise, and ARod’s numbers might not be that spectacular on a team that has such a good defense.

It’s no insult to NYJ - I think they’ll be a vastly improved team. They just might not need to be a shootout team.

I could be wrong.

I think the Jets are a good call. They should improve offensively, but I think will be more efficient with Rodgers than become a juggernaut.

Another trendy pick that I could see underperform is Jacksonville, given that the 6 divisional games against seemingly poor opponents.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Another trendy pick that I could see underperform is Jacksonville, given that the 6 divisional games against seemingly poor opponents.

I was an inch away from picking them.

It concerns me since I dealt for TLaw, but I still think they have enough holes in the defense to get feisty, even against the dregs of the AFC South

That said, I could see there being some fireworks with HOU - they have a bad d but no reason not to thew the ball around.

 

[Scoresman]

Yeah I think my pick might be Jacksonville. A lot of people will remember the playoff win. But it looks like that offensive line is a complete mess.

 

[ffmail4me]

Dallas. Because I hate them. That is all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Dallas. Because I hate them. That is all.

This is fair and also good.

 

[Ilov80s]

NY Jets
Chicago bears

The bears sucked last year, but people are trying to hype them up as being good this year. I don't buy it, although I think Fields will do pretty decent fantasy wise.

Jets might be my pick. I love the weapons but Hall is coming back from the knee injury and may not be right. Rodgers wasn't very good last year and if he was bad in 2023, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

As for the Bears, I don't think a team can be both the choice for surprisingly good and surprisingly bad

I would add the Bills as surprisingly bad. I don't think they will be bottom 5 or anything like that but I could see them being more around league average. They had some OL issues last year, their RBs are pretty pedestrian. Gabe Davis seemed to be revealed as a bit of a fraud last year. Rookie TEs typically don't do much and Knox hasn't proved to be much more than a RZ threat. Of course, Diggs is the star but people don't seem to be talking about how last year ended. Last time we saw DIggs was he was bawling out Josh Allen and then just walking right out of the stadium. I believe he has also skipped offseason stuff. I like DIggs but I think he does have a bit of a diva WR reputation with some people in the league. If DIggs doesn't have his heart in it, the Bills offense could struggle a bit. I love Allen but if he starts to force it too much, he can make mistakes.

 

[Donnybrook]

Vikings

Jags

Based on the risk that their weak defenses effects the offenses adversely. Also think that the Vikings don't have enough quality depth on either line to weather the storm if there are injuries.

 

[menobrown]

Hard not to agree with consensus on the Jets. One really good weapon in the passing game, an old Rodgers who played average last year, I think their plans to upgrade the OL in the draft did not go as they intended and Hackett.

Darkhorse candidate is the Ravens and I say that because I don't expect it so much as think it's possible. I think assumption is Roman and the lack of WR's were the major issues. The WR's appear better on paper but what if OBJ is toast and Flowers takes some time? Maybe the WR improvement is more minimal in nature next season. Secondly what if Roman's offense was actually conducive to Lamar's skill set? Lastly, Lamar as far I know skipped the last voluntary OTA session which to me is a bizarre move after signing his deal and the team installing a new offense. So just the whole process of learning a new system when Lamar seems to be getting a late start in the process could be a formula for a real slow start, at least.

 

[travdogg]

I think Jacksonville isn't a bad call. I don't think they'll necessarily regress a ton, but I think people are expecting continued improvement due to how young the main guys are, and I just think its more complex than that. Maybe more overrated than bad.

I think the NY Giants offense could be really bad. Still not sold at all on Jones, the WRs are still a mystery, and it feels like defenses can/will solve the Daniel Jones rushing problem.

New Orleans is another one, where I think Carr might not be an upgrade from Dalton, and if Kamara misses time, I don't really see any reason to assume last year's 23rd ranked offense, gets any better.

What about Detroit? Jared Goff wasn't anywhere near as good as his numbers implied, they don't really have a #2 WR to start the season, and as a Bears fan, I'll very much argue Montgomery is JAG other than half a season in 2020. I love St. Brown, but he might need to be a 1 man show for much of the year.

 

[titusbramble]

My sense is that it will be a high powered team whose defense improves big time and limits shootouts. Maybe a Miami or Cincinnati type.

I get where you're coming from, but I don't think it's anywhere near quite so much of a factor as you think it will be, or at least in terms of how it looks. If the Bungles are up 31-10 going into the fourth as opposed to, say, 31-28, they've still scored 31 points in the first place, and there will still be production - just rather than Burrow airing it out to Chase, Higgins et al, they're getting rushing yardage from Mixon, Brown, whoever

 

[BoltNlava]

The Chargers. Everybody expects them to excel under Moore, I'm really expecting less. It may take a full year to see improvement with a new OC. Also, a RB1 (that's less than thrilled with his contract), may not want to get injured while playing for that next payday. A TE room devoid of true talent and WR's are a complicated set of injuries, age and rookie baked in. I see a team that once again falls short of the playoffs thus sending Stayley job seeking in '24.

 

[Deamon]

Giants
Jets
49ers

 

[fightingillini]

The Giants. Not sold on Jones. He had a good year in 2022, primarily because he didn't turn it over much and ran for a lot of yards. Like what Travdogg said, defenses will adjust and force Jones to throw it down the field, which is not his strong suit. Waller is a good TE, but can't stay healthy, and their WRs are still suspect. And they need to play 6 games in the NFC East against likely good defenses. Pass on all Giants at their ADP.

 

[Gally]

I think the underlying theme for underperforming is strongly tied to injuries. Predicting those is the key to answer of this question. I know it's not the sexy answer but usually it's not just that healthy players flop and underperform.

Also, are people basing this as a comparison to last year or just what they are expecting this year? For example, I have seen the Vikes listed in this thread. I do think they will underperform when compared to last year's output but last year's output is not my expectation for this year. So I think they will fall from last year I don't really think they will underperform current expectations.

Jets are an easy target. They were terrible offensively last year and they are one injury (A-Rod) to being right back to that situation. Miami sputtered when Tua went out.....that is a big concern again with concussions. They are another likely candidate. What happens if Mahomes or Allen go down? Do those teams severely underwhelm? Most likely.

 

[Chaka]

Hard not to agree with consensus on the Jets. One really good weapon in the passing game, an old Rodgers who played average last year, I think their plans to upgrade the OL in the draft did not go as they intended and Hackett.

Darkhorse candidate is the Ravens and I say that because I don't expect it so much as think it's possible. I think assumption is Roman and the lack of WR's were the major issues. The WR's appear better on paper but what if OBJ is toast and Flowers takes some time? Maybe the WR improvement is more minimal in nature next season. Secondly what if Roman's offense was actually conducive to Lamar's skill set? Lastly, Lamar as far I know skipped the last voluntary OTA session which to me is a bizarre move after signing his deal and the team installing a new offense. So just the whole process of learning a new system when Lamar seems to be getting a late start in the process could be a formula for a real slow start, at least.

I am also a little hesitant to suggest a massive improvement from the Baltimore offense. But the signs are still pointing up, at least tentatively, for 2023. I still think the receiver corps has a lot of question marks with OBJ and a rookie being the significant additions. And I wonder how Monken will be as the coordinator.

However the Ravens off season begins today and, as far as I know Lamar is there.

 

[Chaka]

Agree that people need to be at least a little wary of the Lions offense as a whole. At least for the first 6 weeks. While Montgomery may not be a stud he is an upgrade over Jamaal, although they lose a lot in the locker room with Williams moving on. Adding Gibbs is also a big boon. However Jameson Williams is gone for the first six games and there have to be questions about his overall impact if there are maturity issues. The defense should be improved as well along with the fact their offensive efficiency seemed extremely high last year. I think a regression to the mean is very possible for the Lions offense.

 

[League Champion]

Green Bay has a chance to be really bad.

 

[Chaka]

Green Bay has a chance to be really bad.

Agreed but would that be a surprise?

 

[League Champion]

Green Bay has a chance to be really bad.

Agreed but would that be a surprise?

Probably a little. I don't expect a top 10 offense and I certainly wouldn't expect them to be bottom 10. It's all on Love.

 

[Chaka]

Green Bay has a chance to be really bad.

Agreed but would that be a surprise?

Probably a little. I don't expect a top 10 offense and I certainly wouldn't expect them to be bottom 10. It's all on Love.

Love is such an unknown but another factor is Watson's TD efficiency was off the charts. There is no way that is replicated. We still don't know if Doubs is any good either.

For me, at this point, it would be more of a surprise if they were a top 15 offense than a bottom 7 offense.

 

[menobrown]

However the Ravens off season begins today and, as far as I know Lamar is there.

I did incorrectly label it as him missing OTA's but it was something else, I think they labeled if Football School or something, was a voluntary session but not OTA's so my bad. A ton of players also did not participate, I just figured he would since he's been out of the building ever since they made the OC switch but if he's at OTA's now not a big deal.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

To me, teams like the Jets, Giants, and Bears would not be a surprise. The Jets story of an aging QB on a new team underperforming is as old as time, even with decent young weapons around him. The Giants and Bears stick out as easy calls for 1-year wonders, and weren't even that good in their wonder year.

I've got 2 teams I'm really pegged on for this. One is the Lions. Everyone just kind of assumes every year it'll be the same story. Bad defense, and a solid offense that racks up fantasy points in high scoring games. I think Goff is capable of falling off a cliff at any time, and it could be a real mess there.

My darkhorse is the Bills. Josh Allen is getting up near that age where running QBs, especially ones that take hits like he does, can start feeling those hits more. Cam Newton wasn't as good of a passer as Allen, but he was a pretty good passer in his younger days and he's the only guy with the same style as Allen, that took as many big hits as Allen does. It was right around this age where those hits started really wearing on Newton and he quickly fell off a cliff. Maybe Allen regressing doesn't look the same as Cam since Allen is starting higher up the mountain, but I could definitely see it affecting that offense a lot.

Maybe I'm a year early on this, but I can envision a year where Allen picks up a shoulder stinger or something that just nags him all year, and completely kills the offense. And going forward that becomes more the norm than the exception, which then limits his running, which stagnates the whole offensive scheme a bit, etc.

 

[Chaka]

However the Ravens off season begins today and, as far as I know Lamar is there.

I did incorrectly label it as him missing OTA's but it was something else, I think they labeled if Football School or something, was a voluntary session but not OTA's so my bad. A ton of players also did not participate, I just figured he would since he's been out of the building ever since they made the OC switch but if he's at OTA's now not a big deal.

Lamar was not there today. Wow. That's not a good look.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

It's weird to try and come up with a list that's a counter list for something that there's no agreement on.

My thoughts are below but the short list for the thread of offenses that I expect to be worse in 23 than they were in 22
Kansas City (slightly)
Las Vegas (big time)
Dallas (slightly)
San Francisco (slightly)
Green Bay (big time)
Arizona (big time)
Tampa Bay (from bad to worse?)

Points per game 2022
1. Kansas City- Lost Juju, Kelce one year older- relying on a shaky WR core, lost their OC. Would not be a surprise to see them take a little step back. Slight negative.
2. Philadelphia- Lost their OC, leading RB but seems like a stable enough environment with ascending players. O Line still good and Penny/Swift >Sanders anyway? Neutral
3. Buffalo- Carryover coaching, OC and all the main pieces plus Kincaid but not expecting much from him this year. Neutral
4. Dallas- Lost OC, Zeke who did fine on short yardage. Lost Schultz but gained Cooks and Gallup more recovered? Slight negative.
5. Detroit- Replaced Swift with Gibbs and Chark with Marvin Jones. Jamo might help from game 7+= Neutral to slightly up?
6. San Francisco- Main weapons when healthy are elite, Purdy runs it best and he might not be ready to go but Lance/Darnold might tread water? Neutral to negative.
7. Cincinnati- No important turnover and everyone in their prime except for Mixon who needs to be replaced/upgraded IMO. Neutral
8. Minnesota- Might take a minute for Addison to be an improvement on Theilen but should be Neutral. I like Cook so I think they're losing something if he's traded.
9. Jacksonville- Engram-Ridley-Kirk best weapons yet for an improving TLAW plus Bigsby/Etienne? Should be an improvement.
10. Seattle- adding JSN, Charb to an aging Lockett plus prime Metcalf should be a slight improvement.
11. Miami- If Tua's healthy should be fine. Achane backfills against the aging of the RB corps. Elite weapons plus good system- slight improvement if Tua's healthy.
12. LA Chargers- New OC, Johnston- hopefully they can push the ball a little more downfield and see a big bump.
13. Las Vegas- It's Adams against the world- lost Waller and got Jimmy G. Feels like this is going to be bad. Jacobs workhorse but likely a bad offense.
14. Green Bay- Not sold on Love. All of the WRs are young and will need time. Aaron and Dillon show. Negative.
15. Atlanta- Not sold on Ridder or Heinecke but the big 3 of London/Pitts and Bijan should see this tick up a few spots.
16. New England- TBD if Bill OBrien can fix a mediocre Mac and a collection of mediocre talent plus Rhamondre to be a fringe top 10 unit again. Slight improvement but not elite.
17. Cleveland- TBD if Watson can shake off the rust or whatever. Should be an improvement but who knows how much. Chubb is good at football.
18. NY Giants- Nothing to report here IMO. Neutral. Waller helps, 2nd year in the system for Jones but he's not that good.
19. Carolina- was running the ball with authority 2nd half last year. Not a lot of weapons for Young but by the end of the year will likely be a respectable unit. Neutral.
20. Baltimore- Might take a few games for them to figure out their system but I'm a believer- top 10 offense incoming.
21. Arizona- Not sure what the new system/ OC will bring. Expecting them to struggle on O- negative.
22. New Orleans- TBD how much of an improvement Carr is from Dalton. Feels like a sideways move. Neutral.
23. Chicago- DJ Moore will be better for Fields than Fields will be for him but the whole offense should see a bump. I'm expecting them to jump to being a mid tier Offense.
24. Washington- great weapons, New OC Bienemy but will have to work magic with Howell.
25. Tampa Bay- great WRs, Baker the WR killer is in town and Rachaad White's not special. Not expecting much.
26. Pittsburgh- Finally invested in OLine, 2nd year for Pickett. Diontae, Friermuth and Pickens OK group with a healthy Najee- I see a big bump for this group. Top 15.
27. LA Rams- If Stafford and Kupp are healthy that fixes some of it. Still, OLine still shaky and no second weapon on O. Bump but only mid tier.
28. Tennessee- Believe in the coaching staff. Can Henry/Burks/Chig and Tannehill do enough? Seems like they could get back a little juice with health but limited ceiling.
29. NY Jets- Crap show last year. Will be better but by how much?
30. Indianapolis- Long range I'm excited for this group but my expectations are for a tough start.
31. Houston- Big additions but will take time go gel and improve together. By the end of the year they might be torching a few teams.
32. Denver- Payton has a history of making chicken salad out of chicken-stuff at QB- They're going to go back to the old run/play action deep bomb stuff that they know Russ can run? They'll be improved but it will be on efficiency passing, not volume.

 

[Scoresman]

First pass of my projections are done and this is how team offenses are changing from last year. This is in yards. Offense was down last year about 3% from yearly averages. I expect a bit of a bounceback.

TEAM	% change
Arizona Cardinals	2.2%​
Atlanta Falcons	4.8%​
Baltimore Ravens	9.0%​
Buffalo Bills	5.0%​
Carolina Panthers	4.7%​
Chicago Bears	11.3%​
Cincinnati Bengals	6.7%​
Cleveland Browns	2.6%​
Dallas Cowboys	2.8%​
Denver Broncos	10.8%​
Detroit Lions	-4.0%​
Green Bay Packers	6.9%​
Houston Texans	9.9%​
Indianapolis Colts	2.4%​
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.2%​
Kansas City Chiefs	-0.7%​
Los Angeles Chargers	-1.3%​
Los Angeles Rams	12.7%​
Las Vegas Raiders	-1.9%​
Miami Dolphins	-5.1%​
Minnesota Vikings	2.5%​
New England Patriots	-0.7%​
New Orleans Saints	1.2%​
New York Giants	-2.4%​
New York Jets	6.1%​
Philadelphia Eagles	1.8%​
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.1%​
Seattle Seahawks	-3.3%​
San Francisco 49ers	-1.1%​
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-11.2%​
Tennessee Titans	1.4%​
Washington Commanders	-0.7%​
TOTALS	2.2%​

 

[greenmountaingoat]

@Scoresman, interesting work. Don't agree with all of your estimates but it's interesting. Did you think a few teams got lucky last year and see that luck turning upside-down? There are quite a few teams that I suspected had improved on O that you're projecting as losers. Seattle, NY Giants, Miami, New England, Detroit and LA Chargers all seem to have improved in my eyes on paper.

Conversely, it would be interesting to hear the case for improvement from Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay. Do you believe in Love?

 

[Scoresman]

@Scoresman, interesting work. Don't agree with all of your estimates but it's interesting. Did you think a few teams got lucky last year and see that luck turning upside-down? There are quite a few teams that I suspected had improved on O that you're projecting as losers. Seattle, NY Giants, Miami, New England, Detroit and LA Chargers all seem to have improved in my eyes on paper.

Conversely, it would be interesting to hear the case for improvement from Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay. Do you believe in Love?

These are early projections and I already see things I want to change. Buffalo and Green Bay in particular, I'm not sure I want to be projecting increases. That said, I'm pretty neutral on Love so far. Cincinnati is assuming Mixon stays, would change a lot if he doesnt.

In terms of the improvements, for Seattle and Detroit, just some slight decreases back towards career averages for some talent. That said, I'm projecting both of them to still be above previous year averages. Miami, I have no faith in Tua staying healthy. Offense was way down last year overall. I think some improvement back to the mean is due which is why I have more teams improving slightly than declining.

 

[facook]

I think Jacksonville isn't a bad call. I don't think they'll necessarily regress a ton, but I think people are expecting continued improvement due to how young the main guys are, and I just think its more complex than that. Maybe more overrated than bad.

I think the NY Giants offense could be really bad. Still not sold at all on Jones, the WRs are still a mystery, and it feels like defenses can/will solve the Daniel Jones rushing problem.

New Orleans is another one, where I think Carr might not be an upgrade from Dalton, and if Kamara misses time, I don't really see any reason to assume last year's 23rd ranked offense, gets any better.

What about Detroit? Jared Goff wasn't anywhere near as good as his numbers implied, they don't really have a #2 WR to start the season, and as a Bears fan, I'll very much argue Montgomery is JAG other than half a season in 2020. I love St. Brown, but he might need to be a 1 man show for much of the year.

Agree that people need to be at least a little wary of the Lions offense as a whole. At least for the first 6 weeks. While Montgomery may not be a stud he is an upgrade over Jamaal, although they lose a lot in the locker room with Williams moving on. Adding Gibbs is also a big boon. However Jameson Williams is gone for the first six games and there have to be questions about his overall impact if there are maturity issues. The defense should be improved as well along with the fact their offensive efficiency seemed extremely high last year. I think a regression to the mean is very possible for the Lions offense.

Yep, Detroit is my call as well, unfortunately. Goff is still Goff, we have no idea if Gibbs is a big improvement over Swift, and imo Williams and DMont MIGHT be a wash. We all want them to continue to rise, but it may be a fool's errand.

My other one would be my 49ers. Either because they have to start Lance and he stinks, they have to start Darnold and he stinks, Purdy recovers but his chariot is a pumpkin, or a combination of all three.

 

[Chaka]

we have no idea if Gibbs is a big improvement over Swift, and imo Williams and DMont MIGHT be a wash.

I think on potentially consistent availability alone Gibbs has to be viewed as an upgrade over Swift.

I also think that Montgomery is clearly a better on field back than Williams. Unfortunately, every report I have heard since Jamaal became a Lion is he was one of the most important leaders in the locker room. That's going to difficult, if not impossible to replace. That and his 50 TDs.

The Lions TD efficiency, coupled with improved defense is where.i think they will likely regress.

 

[travdogg]

@Scoresman, interesting work. Don't agree with all of your estimates but it's interesting. Did you think a few teams got lucky last year and see that luck turning upside-down? There are quite a few teams that I suspected had improved on O that you're projecting as losers. Seattle, NY Giants, Miami, New England, Detroit and LA Chargers all seem to have improved in my eyes on paper.

Conversely, it would be interesting to hear the case for improvement from Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay. Do you believe in Love?

These are early projections and I already see things I want to change. Buffalo and Green Bay in particular, I'm not sure I want to be projecting increases. That said, I'm pretty neutral on Love so far. Cincinnati is assuming Mixon stays, would change a lot if he doesnt.

In terms of the improvements, for Seattle and Detroit, just some slight decreases back towards career averages for some talent. That said, I'm projecting both of them to still be above previous year averages. Miami, I have no faith in Tua staying healthy. Offense was way down last year overall. I think some improvement back to the mean is due which is why I have more teams improving slightly than declining.

As someone who also does projections, we are in probably 75% agreement.

That said, the main one that stands out most to me is the Chargers. I see a team with an excellent QB, who was banged up last year, that just got a play caller upgrade, and had 11 missed games between Allen/Williams, added a 1st round WR, and is getting their pro bowl LT back. I know the Chargers were 9th in offense last year, but that almost feels like a floor season to me. This could potentially be the best offense on the NFL.

Along those same lines, I think the Vikings are more likely to regress than improve. They had excellent injury luck with their skill guys, none of them missed a single game, and they likely won't be in as many shootout games with the worst DC of the last decade gone. Its hard to really describe how bad Donatell was last year, like I truly believe the Vikings had a solid defense last year talent wise (and still do) but they spent more than half the game playing prevent for some reason. Donatell was so bad a DC that he even made Matt Patricia look like a competent OC.

 

[facook]

we have no idea if Gibbs is a big improvement over Swift, and imo Williams and DMont MIGHT be a wash.

I think on potentially consistent availability alone Gibbs has to be viewed as an upgrade over Swift.

I also think that Montgomery is clearly a better on field back than Williams. Unfortunately, every report I have heard since Jamaal became a Lion is he was one of the most important leaders in the locker room. That's going to difficult, if not impossible to replace. That and his 50 TDs.

The Lions TD efficiency, coupled with improved defense is where.i think they will likely regress.

On the Gibbs/Swift point: When Swift was drafted didn't we all think he was a stud? Gibbs is tiny. Who knows how he holds up? He was fine in college, but so was Swift if I'm not way off base.

DM vs JWill: Williams had two unique talents -- team leader and getting the ball in the end zone. Montgomery has demonstrated neither of those talents. Between the 20's Montgomery is for sure better. Overall, I don't think so.

But either way, we're in agreement, just for diverse reasons.

 

[Scoresman]

@Scoresman, interesting work. Don't agree with all of your estimates but it's interesting. Did you think a few teams got lucky last year and see that luck turning upside-down? There are quite a few teams that I suspected had improved on O that you're projecting as losers. Seattle, NY Giants, Miami, New England, Detroit and LA Chargers all seem to have improved in my eyes on paper.

Conversely, it would be interesting to hear the case for improvement from Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay. Do you believe in Love?

These are early projections and I already see things I want to change. Buffalo and Green Bay in particular, I'm not sure I want to be projecting increases. That said, I'm pretty neutral on Love so far. Cincinnati is assuming Mixon stays, would change a lot if he doesnt.

In terms of the improvements, for Seattle and Detroit, just some slight decreases back towards career averages for some talent. That said, I'm projecting both of them to still be above previous year averages. Miami, I have no faith in Tua staying healthy. Offense was way down last year overall. I think some improvement back to the mean is due which is why I have more teams improving slightly than declining.

As someone who also does projections, we are in probably 75% agreement.

That said, the main one that stands out most to me is the Chargers. I see a team with an excellent QB, who was banged up last year, that just got a play caller upgrade, and had 11 missed games between Allen/Williams, added a 1st round WR, and is getting their pro bowl LT back. I know the Chargers were 9th in offense last year, but that almost feels like a floor season to me. This could potentially be the best offense on the NFL.

Along those same lines, I think the Vikings are more likely to regress than improve. They had excellent injury luck with their skill guys, none of them missed a single game, and they likely won't be in as many shootout games with the worst DC of the last decade gone. Its hard to really describe how bad Donatell was last year, like I truly believe the Vikings had a solid defense last year talent wise (and still do) but they spent more than half the game playing prevent for some reason. Donatell was so bad a DC that he even made Matt Patricia look like a competent OC.

Chargers: When looking at the last few years, the peak of 2021 seemed like the outlier, not the down year last year. I'm not totally convinced the duo of Allen and Williams can stay healthy. I'm mostly projecting a repeat of last year. I may raise this though as I haven't fully incorporated OL changes into my projections yet.

Vikings: I have their passing offense dipping slightly and their rushing approaching their 3 year average after a dip last season. It looks like many are projecting their OL to improve from last year. A big however here is that these projection assume Dalvin Cook stays which looks unlikely.

 

[Moonlight]

we have no idea if Gibbs is a big improvement over Swift, and imo Williams and DMont MIGHT be a wash.

I think on potentially consistent availability alone Gibbs has to be viewed as an upgrade over Swift.

I also think that Montgomery is clearly a better on field back than Williams. Unfortunately, every report I have heard since Jamaal became a Lion is he was one of the most important leaders in the locker room. That's going to difficult, if not impossible to replace. That and his 50 TDs.

The Lions TD efficiency, coupled with improved defense is where.i think they will likely regress.

Most players the Lions draft have been team captains. Williams’ leadership is likely replaced by others. Williams was not a very good running back the last half of the season. Averaging just over 3yds.
Lions would have liked to keep him as a goal line back but not at the money he wanted. Montgomery will be given the opportunity and Ibrahim a FA has a goal line back profile

 

[steelcityman]

Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Browns, Tampa, Patriots, Atlanta, and any team breaking in a rookie qb for obvious reasons....all because of QB play. Some may not be surprising, but will lead to bad offenses overall.

 

[Chaka]

Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Browns, Tampa, Patriots, Atlanta, and any team breaking in a rookie qb for obvious reasons....all because of QB play. Some may not be surprising, but will lead to bad offenses overall.

So you expect poor QB play from Justin Herbert & Deshaun Watson?

 

[steelcityman]

Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Browns, Tampa, Patriots, Atlanta, and any team breaking in a rookie qb for obvious reasons....all because of QB play. Some may not be surprising, but will lead to bad offenses overall.

So you expect poor QB play from Justin Herbert & Deshaun Watson?

Watson for sure. Herbert will be fine, but just wont put FF teams over the top.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We have a great thread discussing surprisingly good offenses. How about the bad ones? Which teams are going to underperform expectations this year?

Last year looking back I think we can say the Rams were one of the top candidates. Coming off a Superbowl victory nobody expected them to tank that bad. Injuries definitely ffected them though.

Denver too. Everyone was expecting great things from Russell Wilson, and everything fizzled.

I'm having a hard time pinpointing teams this year that could be surprisingly bad on offense. Maybe Dallas since they lost their OC and Schultz. I think Buffalo will underperform, but mostly on defense, not offense. Also, I can see Aaron Rodgers being an upgrade in NY, but I could also see it being a disaster.

What say you?

I'm sure @Gatorman would not be surprised when I say that I like this thread title a lot


I have several of these teams, a few of them have high priced QBs but are going nowhere fast

 

[Gatorman]

We have a great thread discussing surprisingly good offenses. How about the bad ones? Which teams are going to underperform expectations this year?

Last year looking back I think we can say the Rams were one of the top candidates. Coming off a Superbowl victory nobody expected them to tank that bad. Injuries definitely ffected them though.

Denver too. Everyone was expecting great things from Russell Wilson, and everything fizzled.

I'm having a hard time pinpointing teams this year that could be surprisingly bad on offense. Maybe Dallas since they lost their OC and Schultz. I think Buffalo will underperform, but mostly on defense, not offense. Also, I can see Aaron Rodgers being an upgrade in NY, but I could also see it being a disaster.

What say you?

I'm sure @Gatorman would not be surprised when I say that I like this thread title a lot


I have several of these teams, a few of them have high priced QBs but are going nowhere fast

It deserves its own thread for sure. Truth is the first place to look for a bad offense is the O line. Bad O line usually = Bad offense. Miami is a good example. (the rams may be a better one) With Armstead in they were slinging it. With out him they were still slinging it, but the results were much worse. Stafford's woe all came from a bad o line and it spiraled from there. The Jets are a team on my Radar for being worse than advertised. Haven't looked to closely anywhere else yet however

 

[elguapo07]

Whichever team hires Matt Patricia as their OC.

 

[wgoldsph]

Whichever team hires Matt Patricia as their OC.

Come on, these are professionals. Nobody would have that insane level of nepotism...