Survivor leagues (1 Viewer)

[gandalas]

I am in a survivor poll in one of my leagues, where you pick a team each week, and if they win, you go on to the next week, but you cannot use that team for the rest of the season.

I hate picking week one games, as we are not sure what the teams are going to come out of the gate like, and you don't always want to use up one of the traditional powerhouses this early in the season.

So what you think? What team has the best shot to win their week 1 game?

I have some early choices below:

Jacksonville vs Denver (my current pick)

-jacksonville played MUCH tougher at home last season than on the road - Broncos are beat up to begin the year, with Knoshon hurting, their WR corp in shambles, and the defense losing Dumervil fairly recently.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

-no big ben, but it is in Pittsburgh

Chicago vs Detroit

-can chicago come out of the gate strong at home? Their defense seems to be healthy to begin the season.

San Diego at Kansas City

-Seems like a gimme matchup using last season's teams, but no V-Jackson, McNeil, or LT. Plus KC's offense looks a lot better this season.

Arizona at St Louis

-Neither offense is doing well at the moment - QB position in Arizona seems to be in flux while the Rams have nobody at WR.

Tennessee vs Oakland

-I like the titans chances in this game, but do you want to use them this early?

 

[AB in DC]

I'd take the Giants (vs. Carolina) above any of these.

 

[Futz]

I like Miami vs. Buffalo but I don't like road divisionals one bit. :dunno:

Very tough opening weeke this year.

 

[da_budman]

Of the ones you listed I like Tenn as well. Them or the Giants seem to be the safest week 1 game. Tough week for sure.

 

[Unlucky]

I pretty much dislike all of those matchups. So what if you use up a powerhouse week 1? At least survive it and then you'll have a week under your belt to start picking the matchups better.

Jacksonville might not be good - too risky.

Pittsburgh without Ben is not the safest.

Chicago isn't bad, but Detroit could be frisky and I don't want to find out that the Lions offense is for real by losing my survivor pool week 1.

Road teams in divisional games violates two of my rules.

Now that I've looked through the schedule, I pretty much dislike ALL matchups. Man, the NFL really paired up the teams well this year on week 1.

Jacksonville doesn't look so bad now.

I think Tennessee might be the safest pick, but even that scares me a little bit. However, if Campbell and Bush are out week 1, then I'm all over it.

 

[Go deep]

The Colts, even though it sucks losing them early, it beats being eliminated in week one which i bet alot of players will.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

San Diego and Tennessee are the only ones I'd even consider touching in that list. I, too, don't like taking intra-divisional games, though.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think the Detroit Dline could give the Chicago Oline big time fits. It wouldnt surprise me if the Lions pulled the upset there.

Take the Titans

 

[kylechoffman]

I am in a survivor poll in one of my leagues, where you pick a team each week, and if they win, you go on to the next week, but you cannot use that team for the rest of the season.I hate picking week one games, as we are not sure what the teams are going to come out of the gate like, and you don't always want to use up one of the traditional powerhouses this early in the season.So what you think? What team has the best shot to win their week 1 game?I have some early choices below:Jacksonville vs Denver (my current pick)-jacksonville played MUCH tougher at home last season than on the road - Broncos are beat up to begin the year, with Knoshon hurting, their WR corp in shambles, and the defense losing Dumervil fairly recently.Atlanta at Pittsburgh-no big ben, but it is in PittsburghChicago vs Detroit-can chicago come out of the gate strong at home? Their defense seems to be healthy to begin the season.San Diego at Kansas City-Seems like a gimme matchup using last season's teams, but no V-Jackson, McNeil, or LT. Plus KC's offense looks a lot better this season.Arizona at St Louis-Neither offense is doing well at the moment - QB position in Arizona seems to be in flux while the Rams have nobody at WR.Tennessee vs Oakland-I like the titans chances in this game, but do you want to use them this early?

Edit - I like gmen at home and tenn at home. SD on the road on MNF against division rival - no thanks. With all their losses I have a feeling they disappoint.I dont really like divisional games until later in the season when people like cincy have shown they can beat their rivals.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

I like the dolphins as well. First game under a new regime, rookie RB...spells disaster for the Bills.

 

[Futz]

I like the dolphins as well. First game under a new regime, rookie RB...spells disaster for the Bills.

Normally I wouldn't touch a divisional road game like this one. However:1. Dolphins are catching a big break getting this game out of the way before the weather turns south in Buffalo.2. Ronnie Brown isn't hurt yet!!3. Bills are the worst team in the league IMO and it ain't close.4. You can make compelling arguments for just about every game being won by the underdog on the week 1 schedule.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think the Detroit Dline could give the Chicago Oline big time fits. It wouldnt surprise me if the Lions pulled the upset there.Take the Titans

Don't overthink it, I'd go with the Bears. The Lions haven't won a road game in over 2 years, I like those kind of odds. If I could get that game at even spread I'd put a 1000 dollars on it.

 

[Timmay]

I would go with the giants playing the Panthers or Tennessee against the Raiders.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think the Detroit Dline could give the Chicago Oline big time fits. It wouldnt surprise me if the Lions pulled the upset there.Take the Titans

Don't overthink it, I'd go with the Bears. The Lions haven't won a road game in over 2 years, I like those kind of odds. If I could get that game at even spread I'd put a 1000 dollars on it.

I wouldnt take either. Id roll with Tennessee week1

 

[harryhood]

Vikings banged up and thin in the 2ndary, Favre still getting his legs under him without his biggest weapon. A fast flying defense and a home crowd who is going to be raging after raising their first Super Bowl banner. All things are pointing to a very good setup for Brees and New Orleans.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Vikings banged up and thin in the 2ndary, Favre still getting his legs under him without his biggest weapon. A fast flying defense and a home crowd who is going to be raging after raising their first Super Bowl banner. All things are pointing to a very good setup for Brees and New Orleans.

Why waste a pick on one of the top 3-5 teams when they play a formidable opponent?

 

[yellowdog]

Saints will roll opening night.

 

[Khalua83]

I like the Cowboys over redskins week one. Yes cowboys offense hasn't looked great but either has washingtons. Mcnabb has been out and there wr suck so the cowboys defense should keep them under control. Week one games seem hard to pick this year but this is the one I like

 

[ffrookie]

The two I like are the Titans and Dolphins with Tennessee being my favorite by far especially with Campbell and Bush hurt.

I would actually tend to go with Denver and would if it was a home game for them -- they look much better in the preseason (I know its preseason) plus MJD is probably not 100%. In addition, Orton and Gaffney have a great connection and Bailey is a great stopper with Ayers looking good early.

Looking at the games, I believe this to be one of the most difficult weeks I have ever seen in the NFL.

 

[NajehHejan]

I've been doing Survivor for five years now and this is by far the toughest week one I’ve had to deal with.

I can agree with the Miami thinking, though that game does scare me a bit as it is in Buffalo. I don't think Miami is a bad pick though. Just don't love it.

I think the safest pick is Tennessee as I expect Campbell to struggle early in the season, Mike Bush is banged up, and I don’t see the Raiders D having an answer for CJ2K.

I honestly wouldn't touch any other game outside of those two.

SD over KC who is at home has trap written all over it.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Rules of Thumb:

-only play home teams

-avoid divisional matchups

-avoid prime time games

Applying those, Tennessee (vs. OAK) and NYG (vs. CAR) are the two plays that stand out. Vegas would concur. I need to look at the rest of the schedule to see who to choose b/w these two.

 

[tonka]

I think the Titans are the obvious pick. At home, non-divisional game against a team they match up very well against (who on the Raiders is going to stop Chris Johnson?). Add in the fact that the Titans almost always come out strong in week 1 (even last year when they went 0-6, the played Pittsburgh very strong in week 1 and then fell apart in week 2) and Fisher will be certain to have them ready for a fast start this season after what happened last year... the end result is that the Titans are the team to pick this year.

 

[harryhood]

I think the Titans are the obvious pick. At home, non-divisional game against a team they match up very well against (who on the Raiders is going to stop Chris Johnson?). Add in the fact that the Titans almost always come out strong in week 1 (even last year when they went 0-6, the played Pittsburgh very strong in week 1 and then fell apart in week 2) and Fisher will be certain to have them ready for a fast start this season after what happened last year... the end result is that the Titans are the team to pick this year.

If they plan for him, Chris Johnson can be shut down. That Raiders D is improved and if it is in VY's hands, against that secondary, I could definitely see Oakland keeping it very close.

 

[Phurfur]

Rules of Thumb:-only play home teams-avoid divisional matchups-avoid prime time gamesApplying those, Tennessee (vs. OAK) and NYG (vs. CAR) are the two plays that stand out. Vegas would concur. I need to look at the rest of the schedule to see who to choose b/w these two.

ThisI have been very successful over the years using these rules.

 

[RJS113]

The Bucs.

 

[Donnybrook]

I think the Titans are the obvious pick. At home, non-divisional game against a team they match up very well against (who on the Raiders is going to stop Chris Johnson?). Add in the fact that the Titans almost always come out strong in week 1 (even last year when they went 0-6, the played Pittsburgh very strong in week 1 and then fell apart in week 2) and Fisher will be certain to have them ready for a fast start this season after what happened last year... the end result is that the Titans are the team to pick this year.

If they plan for him, Chris Johnson can be shut down. That Raiders D is improved and if it is in VY's hands, against that secondary, I could definitely see Oakland keeping it very close.

This and strange things happen in week 1. Like last year, Buffalo was 2 minutes away from beating New England at home in week 1 but unfortunately Leodis McKelvin fumbled the kick off.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I've been doing Survivor for five years now and this is by far the toughest week one I’ve had to deal with.I can agree with the Miami thinking, though that game does scare me a bit as it is in Buffalo. I don't think Miami is a bad pick though. Just don't love it.I think the safest pick is Tennessee as I expect Campbell to struggle early in the season, Mike Bush is banged up, and I don’t see the Raiders D having an answer for CJ2K.I honestly wouldn't touch any other game outside of those two.SD over KC who is at home has trap written all over it.

Why not SF over SEA?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Rams over the Warner-less Cardinals. Bradford has given the Rams new hope.

 

[WisWolvrns]

Rules of Thumb:-only play home teams-avoid divisional matchups-avoid prime time gamesApplying those, Tennessee (vs. OAK) and NYG (vs. CAR) are the two plays that stand out. Vegas would concur. I need to look at the rest of the schedule to see who to choose b/w these two.

ThisI have been very successful over the years using these rules.

I second these guidelines. (went with Tenn)

 

[PDX Pain]

The Bucs.

That's the play, IMO.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

The Bucs.

That's the play, IMO.

Youch. No thanks.Cleveland has a few playmakers, Delhomme has looked good, and it's too early to take that gamble, IMO.

 

[tombonneau]

Saints will roll opening night.

This is who I'm taking. No way I see them lose this game. Has champ ever lost the home opener since this format?Tenn is tempting, but just reeks of that classic week 1 upset that bounces half a pool.

 

[Bill Haverchuck]

I would go with the giants playing the Panthers or Tennessee against the Raiders.

Me too

 

[zed2283]

I would go with the giants playing the Panthers or Tennessee against the Raiders.

Me too

Same here. I think I'm going with the Giants.

 

[moleculo]

Rules of Thumb:-only play home teams-avoid divisional matchups-avoid prime time gamesApplying those, Tennessee (vs. OAK) and NYG (vs. CAR) are the two plays that stand out. Vegas would concur. I need to look at the rest of the schedule to see who to choose b/w these two.

my rule of thumb is to try to pick the loser instead of the winner (i.e. in past years always pick Detroit, StL or oakland's opponent) , but that's really hard to do this week.I'm thinking about Saints b/c Favre hasn't had a chance to gel with his receivers, and the Saints will thrive with the home crowd...the Superdome will be rockin' tomorrow for sure. I'm considering NYG and TEN, but I'm nervous about both of those. NYG is probably a safer play than TEN, IMO.

 

[harryhood]

Rules of Thumb:-only play home teams-avoid divisional matchups-avoid prime time gamesApplying those, Tennessee (vs. OAK) and NYG (vs. CAR) are the two plays that stand out. Vegas would concur. I need to look at the rest of the schedule to see who to choose b/w these two.

my rule of thumb is to try to pick the loser instead of the winner (i.e. in past years always pick Detroit, StL or oakland's opponent) , but that's really hard to do this week.I'm thinking about Saints b/c Favre hasn't had a chance to gel with his receivers, and the Saints will thrive with the home crowd...the Superdome will be rockin' tomorrow for sure. I'm considering NYG and TEN, but I'm nervous about both of those. NYG is probably a safer play than TEN, IMO.

Right there where you are with the Giants and Saints, and will sleep on it tonight. Saints raising the banner, and no defending super bowl champion has lost since they went to this Thursday night home opener format. Giants are 8-2 SU in September since 2007 with their only losses being @Cowboys/vs. Packers in weeks 1/2 of 2007.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Far and away my favorite picks this weekend are either Arizona or Miami. Which one do you think you'll need later in the season....then take the other one. Both are LOCKS straight up. If you are going against the line, still look at thiese matchups but wait to see where the line settles.

 

[mdlane]

I think the Niners are a lock to beat the Seahawks without their LT. I would never bet against the Raiders in a survivor league, they are just too unpredictable.

 

[C-Bound]

Rules of Thumb:-only play home teams-avoid divisional matchups-avoid prime time gamesApplying those, Tennessee (vs. OAK) and NYG (vs. CAR) are the two plays that stand out. Vegas would concur. I need to look at the rest of the schedule to see who to choose b/w these two.

ThisI have been very successful over the years using these rules.

I won my league last year using these as well lean towards a match-up where the visitor has to travel a great distance. Hence, the Titans are looking even better this week.

 

[Instinctive]

I like San Fran a lot...Seattle looks like this year's Detroit, i.e. the team to pick on whenever possible

 

[tim_whatley]

49ers

 

[BRONG]

NO

 

[LionSlappy]

I am in a survivor poll in one of my leagues, where you pick a team each week, and if they win, you go on to the next week, but you cannot use that team for the rest of the season.I hate picking week one games, as we are not sure what the teams are going to come out of the gate like, and you don't always want to use up one of the traditional powerhouses this early in the season.So what you think? What team has the best shot to win their week 1 game?I have some early choices below:Jacksonville vs Denver (my current pick)-jacksonville played MUCH tougher at home last season than on the road - Broncos are beat up to begin the year, with Knoshon hurting, their WR corp in shambles, and the defense losing Dumervil fairly recently.Atlanta at Pittsburgh-no big ben, but it is in PittsburghChicago vs Detroit-can chicago come out of the gate strong at home? Their defense seems to be healthy to begin the season.San Diego at Kansas City-Seems like a gimme matchup using last season's teams, but no V-Jackson, McNeil, or LT. Plus KC's offense looks a lot better this season.Arizona at St Louis-Neither offense is doing well at the moment - QB position in Arizona seems to be in flux while the Rams have nobody at WR.Tennessee vs Oakland-I like the titans chances in this game, but do you want to use them this early?

I see Jac v Den as a 50/50 toss up/pick 'em game. Wouldn't touch this one. I chose SF on the road v SEA. I see this as safe as it gets in the NFL.

 

[Godsbrother]

I'd take the Giants (vs. Carolina) above any of these.

I took the Giants and I suck at Survivor leagues so you have been warned...

 

[Warpig]

I've been doing Survivor for five years now and this is by far the toughest week one I’ve had to deal with.

I can agree with the Miami thinking, though that game does scare me a bit as it is in Buffalo. I don't think Miami is a bad pick though. Just don't love it.

I think the safest pick is Tennessee as I expect Campbell to struggle early in the season, Mike Bush is banged up, and I don’t see the Raiders D having an answer for CJ2K.

I honestly wouldn't touch any other game outside of those two.

SD over KC who is at home has trap written all over it.

Why not SF over SEA?

This is what I'm going with I think. Though, I'm REALLY wanting to pick TB over CLE as my sleeper pick to get TB out of the way. Not many games TB will win this year. And TB IS home.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Has champ ever lost the home opener since this format?

No.However, taking the Saints means you're betting against Brett Favre in a prime-time game, which historically has not been a smart move.

 

[gkza]

There is a stat out there which will need to be looked up. However, it is something similar to Oakland not winning a game in the eastern time zone with a 1 oclock start in nearly 10 years IRRC.

 

[butcher boy]

The Seahawks are going to be a truly terrible team this year. I'd take the Niners.

 

[tombonneau]

Has champ ever lost the home opener since this format?

No.However, taking the Saints means you're betting against Brett Favre in a prime-time game, which historically has not been a smart move.

Actually, the prime time Brett Favre thing is just a popular myth. Last season for a big money picks league, I looked up his prime time performances (ATS, granted) and they weren't that impressive. What sticks with people are a handful of dramatic prime time games, but his prime time oeuvre isn't that much different than his daytime one.

 

[zed2283]

Has champ ever lost the home opener since this format?

No.However, taking the Saints means you're betting against Brett Favre in a prime-time game, which historically has not been a smart move.

Actually, the prime time Brett Favre thing is just a popular myth. Last season for a big money picks league, I looked up his prime time performances (ATS, granted) and they weren't that impressive. What sticks with people are a handful of dramatic prime time games, but his prime time oeuvre isn't that much different than his daytime one.

His what?